Jerome Contamine
Analyst · Citi
Thank you, Hanspeter. So I move to Slide 24 on the P&L. Well, you see the P&L impacted this quarter by the loss of revenues coming from Plavix and Aprovel in the U.S., impacting those lines, other revenues and share on profit of associates, which both are declining strongly. Of course, this is -- this was expected, and I will give some more detail on the next slide. You may notice as well that we've reached a business operating income margin of the quarter of 33.9%, which put us well in a position to reach at least the high end of the 31%, 32% operating margin, which we gave as a guidance now at the beginning of the year. If you move to this -- well, details on Slide 25, here, you see the impact of Plavix on the quarter. So the net impact on the business net income after tax is EUR 469 million, after around EUR 330 million, which we lost during Q2. So this is clearly in line with the guidance we gave for the full year to be around EUR 1.4 billion of negative impact of the loss of Plavix and Avapro. And as we know, there will be another EUR 700 million to lose in the first and second quarter of 2013. So we'll feel the impact over the coming 3 quarters, obviously. There is going to be some further comments, a, these lines, during the third quarter, benefit from a one-off payment made by BMS, in connection from -- with a litigation we had with them on the supply of Avalide, which, well, it had some shortage last year. So it has a positive impact on this contribution of $80 million, which, of course, will not be repeated in the coming quarters. The second thing I can mention is that on the income of assets, which goes down to EUR 6 million, this includes also the contribution of the Sanofi Pasteur MSD JV in Europe. This JV for the quarter the previous research expenses to Sanofi Pasteur. Therefore, the contribution of SPMSD has been negative over the quarter as a result of this one-off payment. If I move to the next slide, well, we are now aware that for this year, we benefit from a very significant positive headwind from currency exchange rates. In particular, in Q3, in U.S. Dollars the exchange rate has been, again, the Euro 1.25 when it was 1.41 in the same quarter of last year. So the impact from sales has been EUR 561 million, out of which, EUR 354 million is due to U.S. dollar, EUR 82 million due to the Japanese yen versus euro and EUR 40 million interestingly due to the renminbi versus euro, which shows also the importance of our Chinese operations. This also was a positive impact on the business operating income, as long as we have a cost base, which is more euro-denominated than our sales base, obviously. And as you notice, I mean, we have a positive impact of the exchange rate on our BOI of around 8% for the quarter. Well, you'd be aware that when probably we could expect that in the coming quarters here, the Euro remains not very strong against the U.S. dollar, there is still high volatility. If I just look at the present exchange rates for the present quarter versus the same quarter of Q4 2011, we will not see the same positive headwind on a like-for-like basis. Now on costs, well, basically, I think the main message is that we have somewhat concluded our EUR 2 billion cost savings objectives, which is a mission for the period 2012 to 2015, i.e., over 4 years. As a matter of fact, I think that we can say today that if I include the synergies associated to addition of Genzyme, which is close to be completed, will be completed in the first quarter of 2013, we will have reached around 40% of the overall objective over the year 2012. So this clearly impacts positively our different ratios at different levels. We'll start with cost of sales. You remember that we gave at the beginning of the year a guidance of around 31.5% to 32% ratio. And so the first 9 months at 31.1%, which clearly says that we are well in line with the objective to be on the high end of the guidance, i.e., around 31.5%. Of course, there is still some dilution arising from the evolution of the portfolio, including in Q3, the loss of Eloxatin sales. But if you compare Q3 2012 to Q3 2011, the difference has to be pretty minor, and we could say that around '12 should be the bottom in terms of cost of sales to sales ratio around the bottom. On the next slide, 28, which is R&D expense, well, clearly, I mean, we have reduced significantly our R&D expense over the quarter by 10.7%. Part of it is due to the same event, which I mentioned earlier, which should be repayment by the JV of the -- having the expenses incurred by Sanofi Pasteur over time in connection with accelerant. So this impact is EUR 44 million. But even if I don't include this element, then the -- we continue to have a close on tight control of R&D expense, which a significant side of internal expense, while we are starting to spend more on external studies, on trials in particular, in connection with our Roche Phase III trials we recently launched, in connection with our new formulation of insulin glargine or in connection with the launch of the studies for the PCSK-9 product. So all in all, over the year, for the first 9 months, we reached a decline of 0.6% of the R&D to sales ratio, which is clearly showing the impact of the efforts we are doing to optimize our cost base and also as a result of the reorganization, which has taken place in the sales force in the U.S. and in Germany and other European countries at the beginning of this year. SG&A, the message is pretty much the same. Our overall SG&A expense declined by 2.7%. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, this reflects the positive impact of Genzyme integration synergies on a tight control on G&A expense, which is down 4.1%. It reflects as well a further decrease of expenses in mature markets, whether in Europe or partly in the U.S., and some increase in new markets, whether it's emerging market or behind new launches. And we have started to increase our expenses clearly behind AUBAGIO, as well as Zaltrap and also preparing for the launch of Lyxumia. On the net income, which is Slide 30, here, I like to mention 2 elements. So the first line is that the net financial expense benefit from the capital gain we've made on the disposal of Yves Rocher, which is, I mean, an element of the explanation of the decrease of the net financial expense for the quarter. And also, we benefit from a lower expected tax rate for the year. And this lower expected tax rate is connected to an agreement we've signed with the Japanese authorities, which, at the end of the day, reduce the overall taxation of the profits we generate from our Japanese sales. So we now, as a result of this agreement, expect an effective tax rate of 27% for the full year, and this is what has been taken into account in Q3 for the 3 first quarters. So thanks to these 2 elements, we post EUR 1.68 per share, earnings per share, which is clearly ahead of consensus, and we would have been ahead of consensus without these elements, of course, slightly less. And this is 14.5% below the level of last year on a constant exchange rate basis but thanks to be a positive exchange rate impacts I mentioned before. On the published basis, it's a decrease by only 6.1%. Cash flow, clearly, the company is continuing to generate strong cash flow despite the loss of revenues coming from Plavix, which, of course, was not only profit but also cash flow. As you see from the slide, our free cash flow generated has been EUR 5.8 billion, pushing it down 10.7%, so pretty much in connection with the decrease of profit. However, it allows us to more than pay the dividend, which represented EUR 3.5 billion, as well as a share repurchase, which represented for the first 9 months EUR 825 million, including EUR 375 million over the third quarter. As a result of that, we see a decrease of debt. We are now below EUR 10 billion, and we have decrease of debt by around 1 -- net debt by around EUR 1.5 billion over the first 9 months and by EUR 2 billion versus end of June. So clearly, I think we have posted today solid results, slightly better than anticipated for the first 9 months. They benefited from the solid growth and the solid performance of our growth platforms, also in the first quarter from the consolidation of Genzyme, which was not considered in the first quarter 2011, as Chris mentioned early on. We've seen, I would say, as expected, the competition on our legacy blockbusters, and we've seen that in Q3, the last one has come to a genericification, being Eloxatin in the U.S. And, well, let's be frank, I mean, the austerity measures have hurt the company as expected, with maybe some tendency to intensify here and there in southern European market. But, as is true as well, as Hanspeter has showed to you earlier, that our exposure to Europe start to decrease. We are now around 22% when we were 3 years ago around 33% of our overall sales being in Western Europe. We have showed continued discipline on costs and have front-loaded our EUR 2 billion saving plan. At the same time, we are progressively increasing our investment into new product launches. So this will continue and probably somewhat amplify in the coming quarters as we prepare for the launch of Lyxumia and, thereafter, for the launch of LEMTRADA. While the first 9 months have been impacted by some specific items, some of them being positive but some of them also being negative. The net has been slightly positive and clearly is also helping the overall evolution. But with all that and with solid performance, I mean, we manage today to feel comfortable that we will be on the high end of the year minus 12%, minus 15% guidance we gave at the beginning of the year. And we expect to end the year at around minus 12% versus last year despite the challenging global environment that the economy, in general, but also our industry, is facing. With that, I think that -- I turn to -- turn back to Sébastien, maybe to handle the question on the Q&A session.
Sébastien Martel: Thank you, Jérôme. So we're indeed now ready to open the call to questions. As you probably know, we have 38 analysts covering us. So I will keep on asking you to ask 1 question at a time, 2 maximum, so that we can allow as many people as possible to participate in the discussions. Operator, we're ready to take questions.