Operator
Operator
Welcome to the 2011 Q3 Results Conference Call. Today, I am pleased to present Mr. Sébastien Martel. Sir, please go ahead. Sébastien Martel – Investor Relations: Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Sanofi’s conference call on our Q3 2011 results. Before we start, I must advise you that our presentation today contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause actual results to be materially different. These factors are detailed on our annual report on Form 20-F and in the Document of Reference. I would also like to remind you that our slides can be downloaded from our website. So our presentation today will be divided in three parts. First, Chris Viehbacher, our CEO, will share with you the key highlights for the quarter. Then Hanspeter Spek, President, Global Operations, will provide some color on the Q3 2011 business performance. And then Jerome Contamine, our CFO, will conclude with the Q3 2011 financial performance. After the presentation, we will as always host a Q&A session. Without any further ado, I will now hand the call over to Chris. Chris Viehbacher – Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Sébastien. Good afternoon. Good morning, everybody. Good quarter here, pretty much in line with expectation. A little ahead of consensus, but certainly very consistent with the medium term guidance that we gave on the 6 of September, when we had an opportunity to go and do a deeper dive in to the medium-term outlook of the business. I think I said at that point that really the focus of the company now shifted to really execution on that, and I think we see that in this quarter. If we go the first slide on five, we talk an awful lot about the patent cliff, but I think the strategy that we have employed really in terms of both growing the business organically through the growth platforms and then also with the explicit strategy of doing mergers and acquisitions to bolt-on to those platforms and enhance the growth that we’ve been successful in actually avoiding the cliff really on sales. So even though we’re in the real middle of the cliff, you can see that really since quarter four, sales have steadily increased. Now as we all know, that’s certainly thanks to the consolidation of Genzyme. But again, I think external growth has always been an explicit part of our strategy. So nobody is pretending that’s organic. And what I think – and we’ll see that a little later on, it certainly puts us back on that trajectory of sustainable growth going forward. Earnings per share actually falling not too badly. Obviously, when you lose these big blockbusters, huge leverage goes out of the business. You’ve seen this in other business, and it’s no different for us. Nonetheless, I think, again, thanks to not only the consolidation of Genzyme, but some very tight cost management, that we are – as we transition the business away from major blockbusters able to also limit the loss on profits of the business. If we go to slide six, you can see the progress we’re making on the cliff. So a year ago, we still – even though we’d lost already a lot in 2004, the key genericized products still accounted for over €1 billion. These are down to €744 million. One of the curious things is, as kind of a new thing for me, I’ve never seen a patent cliff go back up. But that’s a little bit what we’re seeing with Eloxatin. Having written Eloxatin off, actually we’ve got a new lease on life, a limited lease on life, where Eloxatin will now stay on the U.S. market until August of 2012. This was actually a very strong performance by our legal team, not only in defending the patents, but also I think on our whole managed care organization, because we actually had to do something unprecedented. You know when a generic comes into the market, the whole official reimbursement rate for Medicare and Medicaid change. And we actually had to go back and increase that, because the generics came off the market. And as I said, there hadn’t been really been a precedent for that in this type of a disease state, and we managed to do that. So we are getting an extra amount of money, and you can see in the quarter, that’s benefited us to the tune of €245 million. Again, not part of the sustainable growth, but it is cash. Looking at slide seven, this is of course the story that you’ve been following now for a couple of years. We are clearly losing the blockbuster to generics, but the growth platforms continue to power along. Even just a year ago, they were only 58% of our sales. Now they’re 68% of our sales. Now, obviously that’s a function of loss of sales on the blockbuster, but clearly also very good double-digit growth on those growth platforms. And as I’ve said on the 6th of September, at our Investor’s seminar, these growth platforms will really represent close to 80% of the business by 2015. So when you look at those growth platforms you’re really looking at the new Sanofi. If you look on slide eight, you can see how those performed. Again, up 11% in the quarter and up almost 12% in the first nine months. All of this excludes the one-off revenue in 2010 of H1N1 vaccines, and we’ve also stripped out Genzyme sales, so that you get a sense of what’s the underlying growth of the business, before we do Genzyme. Emerging markets up 6.8%. Hanspeter will go in and show you that there is some differences in the sub-regions within emerging markets. Remember, there is 80 countries in emerging markets, and there are going to be a few hiccups in some of these markets along the way. But fundamentally, we continue to believe in the enormous opportunities of emerging markets. And we still are forecasting double-digit growth for the year, again all of that without H1N1 sales and Genzyme sales. If you add in Genzyme, those emerging markets grew by 12%, but the underlying growth rate is 6.8%. Vaccines up 19.9%. There is a technical aspect in our favor on this one. Seasonal flu vaccine sales are produced in the first part of the year and start shipping in the third quarter and fourth quarter, and a little depends just on how long it takes to make the strains. As you know, one strain changes every year in the flu vaccine. And so depending on yields and time, we are either shipping more or less in the third quarter. We shipped almost everything in the third quarter this year versus only roughly about 50% of the shipments last year. So, on a like-for-like basis, I think we see doses sold as being roughly equivalent to last year at around 70 million doses. So this clearly is the market leader in the U.S. But the value of each dose has improved a little bit in the U.S. So we’ll get some growth out of our flu franchise. But that 19.9% isn’t completely organic and isn’t going to last for the year. I might just take Animal Health while I’m at it, because there we have a technical reason going the other way. Hanspeter will go into more detail. But that is really as a result of generics which launched, which have been withdrawn from the market, but managed to put a number of products out there into the distribution chain. Very happy with the diabetes business. Growing at a very solid 12.4%. Lantus growing at pretty much 15%. So we gained market share in the United States. Interestingly, emerging markets showing 23% growth, so we are seeing increasingly that diabetes is really an issue that affects countries around the world. Consumer up 20%, largely on the back of a very successful Allegra launch, and of course, innovative products and within that obviously Multaq holding up reasonably well. On slide nine, we talked at the Investors Seminar about the fact that we had six new medicines to file with regulatory agencies, either in the U.S. or in Europe, over a nine month period. And in fact, five of those have already been completed. All of these products, Kynamro, Aubagio, Visamerin, which is the U.S. brand name, Lyxumia and Zaltrap have either been filed in the U.S. or in the EU. And I’m actually impressed with the regulatory teams because putting in this many regulatory submissions is not an easy thing. And to my mind, I’ve never see it in my career before. So people have worked very hard to get that done. We also have on the next slide, slide 10, a number of milestones coming up. So we’ve already seen on the MOBILITY trial Phase III results out. We have our new formulation of insulin glargine. We told you last 6th of September that that was in Phase I. In the meantime, we’ve had some consultations with regulatory agencies, and we believe that we can actually go straight into Phase III in the first quarter of 2012. Our PCSK-9, we look like we are certainly one of the leaders in that, if not the leader. And we would expect to go into the Phase III with that product in the second quarter of 2012. And of course, you’re going to see some other data coming along. We have our Phase II results in first line colorectal cancer. You remember the VELOUR study showed positive results in second line. The Lemtrada second Phase III study will be released before the end of the year, and we have the third Phase III study that will also – for Aubagio that will come out in Q4. And of course, we will also do the regulatory filings. If we filed in the U.S., then you see the EU dates and vice versa. So, research and development is coming along pretty well. I think we spent the last two years really focusing on development. We are state of art in development. We are now turning our focus really to research and really pursuing the strategy of open innovation that we’ve talked about. And you may have questions on that coming back later on. So if I take all of these factors, yes, we had the significant impact of generics in the second half. We don’t have H1N1 sales this year, which we had in the first half of 2010. We’ve seen Taxotere. And we only consolidated Genzyme from the second quarter. But I think we’ve got a strong outlook. And so with the progress of the business, the strength in the growth platforms, we continue to maintain the guidance that we’ve issued a little earlier this year at the end of the second quarter, which is that business earnings per share are expected to be 2% to 5% lower than 2010 EPS at constant exchange rates. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Hanspeter to give us a little bit more color on the operations. So Hanspeter? Hanspeter Spek – President, Global Operations: Yes. Thank you, Chris. Good morning, good afternoon to everybody. I think it’s relatively easy to comment on this quarter. Why? Because the quarter hardly brings surprise. Just to have two or three little exceptions. Overall, it is a good, reaffirming continuation what we have given as an outlook in the previous quarter, and what we could report for the previous quarter overall. If we could advance on page number 13, you see then overall, yes, the business has been growing by 10% in sales. This despite generic competition, but yes, of course, helped by the integration of Genzyme sales. As you see more in detail then from looking through the scales, you see that our growth platforms not only compensated in this quarter as last quarter, but even over-compensated the losses due to generification with €555 million increased sales toward €471 million of losses. You see that that’s a big product of Sanofi Taxotere, Lovenox, Ambien, Allegra, Xyzal, Plavix in Europe. They are all still losing sales due to generification, while Eloxatin, for reasons you are aware of, continued to grow and added on this, €839 million of sales coming then from Genzyme. Looking more into our geographical growth platforms there may be need to expand a little bit on the minus 5.4% you see on page 14 for Eastern Europe and Turkey. If we analyze those minus 5%, which may look a little bit surprising on first glance, deeper, it is important to state that a third of the effect comes out of Turkey. We have seen price decreases of significant magnitude category, 20% across the board in Turkey, to one-third. Another third comes from vaccines, which is largely a technical effect in line with what Chris chart explains about anticipated and the delayed sales of flu vaccination. And another third comes from genericization, mainly Taxotere and to a much lesser extent Aprovel and Plavix. Besides those technical effects and in respect to the vaccines one-time effect, the development also in the Eastern European countries continued to be positive on the level of the other growth platforms. You see that we continue to have a very strong two-digit growth of nearly 18% in Asia, 12% in Latin America, and still 3.4% for Africa, despite all of the political events which took place during the year. My outlook for the rest of the year for Africa, just coming back from a longer journey into Africa, is very positive. And we, overall, for the total year will reach our targets in Africa, despite all of those events. Once again, you’ll see a little focus on the so-called BRIC countries, where we were selling more than €900 million in the third quarter, with an even more accelerated growth of 20% without Genzyme and even 24% with Genzyme. Diabetes, a little bit more in detail on page 15. You’ll see that, yes, in 2010 we had reason to reassess our investments, to reallocate our means, especially but not the only into United States. And you see then that from a modest growth of only 6.7% one year ago, growth is going up to 8.8%, 13%, 14% and now nearly 15%. It is a growth which is driven of course by Lantus and Apidra, but also our oral products, depending on the geographical situation, continue to do very well. The underlying growth sectors are, as you see from the chart, SoloSTAR, which has now obtained nearly 47% or more than 47% of market share, and as already mentioned by Chris, an even stronger growth in the emerging markets with more than 23%. We are equally content with our development in CHC OTC products with a growth of more than 20% in the third quarter. The bar chart could give you the impression that all of this growth comes from Allegra, which is fortunately not true. Nevertheless, Allegra did extremely well. It’s performing above expectations for the total year 2011. We had again a very good third quarter with Allegra in the United States due to the outdoor season period. Now in the fourth quarter, we expect of course much lower sales. But the overall portfolio in CHC will be driven by all the other products, and you find some examples like Essentiale, Lactacyd, Dorflex and NoSpa, most of them in very strong two-digit growth. So yes, in fact, we are quite content with our performance in CHC, where we take more and more leading position within this segment from a worldwide basis. Then on the next page, the performance of generics, I refer to what I have said many times before. That generics at the end of day is a question of definition. So the way we present the data, you see which important part within our portfolio play generics, where about 64% of our sales come from emerging markets, which means of course, in those emerging markets, very often patent protection does not exist. And consequently, from a definition point of view, nearly everything into market is equal to generic. We do well with those products. We have a very close to 10% growth rate inside the emerging markets. Important growth factor is still and will continuously be mainly in South America. I told you during the last calls that we are expanding madly from Brazil all over South America, and we do very well. As you see we have a growth rate of 37% in this quarter, and I tend to believe that this is only the beginning, and we will continue to expand the presence all over South America. Worth mentioning also that we have launched a authorized generic of Lovenox in the United States, due to the fact that there was a short appearance of another generic coming from a competitor, as you’re probably aware. The generic had to be withdrawn by a decision of U.S. District Court. We maintain, of course, our authorized generic on the market. And once again, we are overall rather content with the performance of Lovenox inside the competitive environment now in the United States. We believe that so far, we have taken the right decisions, and we of course intend to continue to do so also with our authorized generic. This builds a nice bridge to page number 18, where you see two of our still-major products, Plavix and Lovenox. I think it’s interesting to point out that despite the generification of Plavix, Plavix is still selling €1.7 billion in consolidated sales. And you see that Plavix, for example, in Japan and in China, two markets which are quite contradictively. In Japan, we have patent protection which will last for another close to three years. In China, we never had any patent protection. Nevertheless, it seems that product is growing by close to 23% in both markets, and is on the way to become a Japanese and Chinese blockbuster. But also outside, the product still plays an important role, which is equally true for Lovenox, which has achieved sales of close to €500 million in the quarter. €360 million outside the United States, you see that the product, which never had patent status, for example, in emerging markets, continues to grow with a very solid two-digit growth rate, and represented €137 million in the quarter. On Genzyme, you have heard also the comments from Chris. We have a quarter which is growing by 6.9%. Cerezyme sales, as we have commented on at other occasions, still a limited, reduced production availability is the reason. We are content to confirm that the Fabrazyme plant continues to be on track, and we remain optimistic that the product – that the factory will go online as foreseen at the beginning of next year. The products transferred to Sanofi, Renagel and Synvisc are at the beginning of an expanded promotion inside Sanofi. We are optimistic that we will significantly increase sales. This is especially but not only true for the United States, where we have allocated considerable additional resources, and we will see how much this will contribute to increase the growth of those products, which despite a certain underinvestment inside the old Genzyme, continuously grow with 7% or even 11%. Another aspect to be commented on is the very moderate to even negative growth of Merial into third quarter. €470 million on page 20, it was minus 5% as compared to last year. This is largely a technical effect. We had generics appearing on the – in the environment of Frontline. Due to court decision, those generics had to be withdrawn. Nevertheless, we had reacted by stockpiling in the first and into second quarter, which means we had anticipated Frontline sales in the United States in the previous quarter, which led to lesser sales in the third quarter overall. We are totally confident that Merial will reach its target for 2011 on an annual basis, showing a growth rate of single digit for the full year. In line with our ongoing plans to expand the life cycle management of Frontline, we have launched in May, June in the United States, Certifect. So far, the product behaved very well, exactly in line with our expectations. Then finally on page 21, you’ll see the very strong growth of vaccines, nearly 20% in the third quarter. You see that this is largely due to early shipment of flu vaccination, especially but not only into United States. But I think it’s also worth to report that other products like Menactra, which was a little bit of a point of concern in previous quarters, is pegged to a very good growth of more than 10%. And also Pentaxim is growing to nearly 20%. So, overall, a very good third quarter for our vaccine business, and we of course have to anticipate that the fourth quarter will be not so strong, as it has been pronounced already that especially flu vaccines are early shipments. But our statistics overall a good sign because it shows clearly the confidence the market and the payers have in our vaccination, because they are ready to take it on board very early. So far from my side and I pass to Jerome for the financials. Jerome Contamine – Chief Financial Officer: Thank you, Hanspeter. So, I am moving to slide 23. You already looked at the sales we posted for the quarter. I think that one thing we are proud of is this 0%, which you feel 0% is not so good, but actually it means in the first quarter now in a while since we’ve seen that the growth platform has compensated for the impact of the genericized products. And also in this quarter, for the €30 million of sales of H1N1 that we still had in the third quarter 2010. So just organically, we managed to have the sales even. And then of course, Genzyme adds to that to lead to 10% growth on a constant exchange rate basis. You’ll see also an important negative impact this time of the exchange rate fluctuations. We all know that exchange rates on (indiscernible) currencies are quite volatile. I’ll just remind you that for third quarter 2010, the U.S. dollar against the euro was pretty high at $1.29, which maybe we have forgotten. So here, I mean on a like-for-like basis, you’ll see the impact of the U.S. dollar valuation. Of course, if you take Q4, it will be different, as the U.S. dollar against the euro in Q4 was lower, or in other term, the euro was higher against the U.S. dollar during this quarter. On slide 24, the P&L is of course impacted by the Genzyme consolidation, both in terms of sales and cost lines as well. So you’ll see that when we post an increase of 10.1% of the net sales, the business operating income is growing, and again it’s something we did not show in the previous quarters, by 2.8%. Of course, the OpEx lines are all increasing due to Genzyme consolidation. Therefore, I will make some more detailed comments line by line. So to start with, I am on slide 25 to start with the cost of sales. As expected, the shift of mix of the business on the loss of sales branded products with a very high margin is leading to so much higher cost of sales. However, the gap against last year tends also to be smaller. We are just 2.2% lower than the Q3 2010, and the bulk of that is exactly due to the generification of our key products. The 31.15% cost of sales to sales ratio that we posted for the third quarter, in line with the guidance we gave, I gave for the full year, which is to be around 31%. Precisely after three quarters we are at 30.9%. On the OpEx side, firstly R&D. So the increase of R&D spend is only due to the R&D we spent on Genzyme, which would be then €139 million precisely. So if I exclude Genzyme on a like-for-like basis, our R&D expenses are down by 0.8%. And not only that, but in fact, the pharma R&D is decreasing by around 6% along with our efforts to restructure, streamline our R&D organizations. At the same time, we’re spending more on Phase III clinical trials, both in pharma, but also in vaccines. As you know that we are in the process of handling the Phase III trial for the dengue vaccine. So all-in-all, the R&D to sales ratio is now at 13.9%, which is very similar to the one we had in Q3 last year, and so much lower than the one we had in Q1 and Q2. When you come to SG&A, here again we are very close to the level we had in Q3 2010, in terms of SG&A to sales ratio, meaning that the overall increase of the SG&A is totally due to the Genzyme consolidation. As we had the opportunity to comment already during Q2 presentation, we have not been able to yet to realize all the synergies with Genzyme, in terms of G&A expenses, in particular, and to a certain extent, in terms of certain marketing expense for oncology, for example. These synergies will come quarter-after-quarter; however, despite of this effect, which will reduce over time, the ratio of SG&A to sales is at 24.2%, which is just 0.2% above the level of last year. This is due to tight cost control and control on our SG&A expense. If I just take the perimeter outside Genzyme, so not taking into account these synergies, we have an overall decline of 2% of our SG&A. And the decline hides somewhat the shift of significant decrease of expenses in mature countries, in particular in Europe, and to a lower extent in the U.S. where we have also spend expenses behind Allegra and Lantus, while we’re increasing our SG&A on our sales and marketing in emerging markets. I’ll turn now to page 28. I mean the good thing on this page is the performance of the net financial expense. We are now computing the full impact of the debt we raised to finance Genzyme. As you can see, we post the same level of net financial expense, which shows that the average cost of debt has decreased significantly when we have raised the financing of Genzyme, put in place financing of Genzyme. And at the same time the return we get from the excess cash we have on the balance sheet has increased somewhat as compared to last year. So, it’s really a good performance as we managed to keep net financial expenses stable, despite an increase of average debt due to the Genzyme acquisition. With an effective tax rate about 27.5%, which is a guidance that we gave at Q2, we arrived to a business net income which is up 4.1%, close to €2.4 billion, and brings us to a business EPS of €1.79, which is up 1.6%. The gap of course between the increase of the business net income and the business EPS is linked to the increase of the number of outstanding shares. This is due to the dividend, which was offered to be taken in shares this year. You’ll remember that we said on 6th of September that we will start to do some opportunistic buyback in order to manage the dilution. We have started as early as July and August. And as you will see on the next slide, we have completed the first program of buyback of buy €500 million of shares, which is around 10 million shares, out of which 8 million have been purchased during Q3. So we have again generated strong free cash flow, after taking into account the CapEx, which are still clearly under control, includes now the CapEx on Fabrazyme onto the field facilities in Genzyme is being kept to around €400 million. We have a free cash flow, which is increasing by 3.3% compared to Q3 2010, despite here again the impact of genericization of some of our key high-margin products. The cost of debt has been on the gross debt 2.4%. And when you compute the net debt, you have the impact of the translation of U.S.-dollar-denominated debt into euro, when the – I mean, the exchange rate at the closure date was 1.35. So, when we had a positive impact at the end of Q2, we had negative impact at the end of Q3. And this will continue to fluctuate like that, keeping in mind, that we have financed Genzyme in U.S. dollar, because we are going to repay this debt largely through U.S. dollar-denominated cash flows. So just to summarize, I think that this quarter is totally in line with what could be expected by you or by the market or in line with our strategy. The growth platforms have posted double-digit growth for the first nine months. We suffered from a significant generic headwind, which of course was planned, for a total of more than €1.7 billion for the overall nine months. This is clearly the year where we have the highest and the strongest headwind in terms of sales. We are continuing to be on track to deliver the €2 billion cost savings objective by the end of 2011, which of course doesn’t take into account the new objectives we have set for the period 2011 to 2015, which is to save another €2 billion. We all-in-all for the first nine months have limited erosion of our business EPS of 3.5% at the constant exchange rate, if I could exclude H1N1, which make us comfortable to confirm the guidance we gave at Q2 to be between 2% and 5% lower than what we had in 2010. And once again, the transformation of the Group is ongoing, as now the growth platform together with Genzyme represents more than 68%, precisely 68.5% of our overall sales. With that, I think that I can pass the floor to Sébastien Martel for the next item, the Q&A. Sébastien Martel – Investor Relations: Thanks, Jerome. Operator, we’re now ready to open the Q&A session. I’d ask participants to limit their questions to one or two at a time, to allow as many people as possible to participate in the discussions. Back to you?