David Callen
Analyst · Piper Sandler
Thanks, Shelly. Our teams and suppliers have been working tirelessly to manage four consecutive quarters of accelerating unit demand including escalated velocity in Q2. They are expanding output and capacity while navigating temporary component and labor constraints inflation and expedited logistics pressures. Despite this, Q2 performance broke top and bottom line second quarter records. Our teams have driven three consecutive years of double-digit average demand growth by continually progressing our differentiated innovations, digital marketing and experiential retail operations. This momentum is carrying forward into the back half of 2021. We now expect to deliver at least $7.25 in 2021 EPS on at least 35% two year net sales growth. Demand has temporarily exceeded supply. Component shortages limited output from two third-tier suppliers affecting our deliveries in June and July. COVID-driven labor shortages at a Tier 1 supplier which have now been resolved, delayed their installation of additional production lines and will constrain our delivery upside through Q3. Our teams and suppliers are working rapidly to more than double production output and deliver capacity to support continued market share gains. Already in 2021, we expanded our home delivery workforce 50% and invested significantly in skill training, our delivery fleet and digital capabilities. We have also advanced resilient supply partnerships including increased support of second, third and even fourth tier suppliers. We source from geographically distributed plants and multiple suppliers wherever possible. This modular strategy offers flexibility for greater support capacity to get ahead of the extraordinary demand growth we are driving. In addition to flexible sourcing, our fulfillment approach prioritizes proximity to customers. Sustained double-digit demand growth has led us to accelerate the execution of our outbound logistics network. We have evolved plans to increase flexibility with a total of eight to 10 assembly distribution centers by next year, up from six currently. These will be supported by approximately 25 delivery distribution centers, up from 19 currently. We are opening larger footprint facilities in key markets and investing in higher output assembly equipment, technology and data analytics. These actions narrow the use of less than truckload carriers to reduce waste, damage and costs while improving customer experience. Longer term we envision growing this network to as many as 16 ADCs and 30 to 35 DDCs. Now I'll provide a brief review of our Q2 financial results and expectations for 2021. First, remember that Q2 is normally our seasonally smallest quarter with lower sales and profits. That was not the case this year. Demand growth and operational performance have accelerated each of the last four quarters resulting in record breaking Q2 results, while we absorbed supply and labor constraints, inbound logistics expediting costs and inflation on labor and materials and components. Q2 net sales of $484 million were up 36% versus 2019, and up 70% versus COVID-affected 2020. First half net sales of more than $1 billion grew 35% over the first half of 2019, including 28% two-year unit growth and 4% ARU growth and growth from both comps and new stores. We continue to expect full year net sales growth versus 2019 of at least 35%. Operating profits of nearly $30 million in Q2 and $106 million in the first half are both records. First half operating margin of 10.1% was up 500 basis points versus the first half of 2019. Accelerated demand and digital based operating efficiencies across the vertical business more than offset $13 million of incremental Q2 input cost pressures. We are activating nearly $100 million in annualized price increases across our products while continuing to deliver value-packed innovative sleep solutions for customers. We continue to prioritize operating profits and EPS growth as we employ the benefits of our vertically integrated operating structure to overcome significant inflation pressures. Despite the pressures on 2021 gross margin, our stronger than expected growth and operating efficiencies are expected to drive full year operating profit margin expansion versus 2019 of more than 300 basis points. Operational efficiencies in sales and marketing drove 470 basis points of two-year leverage in the first half, while we continue to lean into our near-term growth drivers including 20 basis points of deleverage in demand driving media. Our innovation, sales and marketing teams operate in lockstep to drive demand, leveraging technology for speed and agility. The outcome is illustrated by the $3.5 million TTM sales per comp store reached in Q2, up 27% in two years with 47% of stores exceeding $3 million. We also leveraged our G&A costs, which includes increased investments in IT infrastructure and growth enablers, while we continue to invest in innovation driving R&D. In the first half, 60 basis points of two-year G&A leverage nearly offset 70 basis points of two-year R&D growth. R&D spend is up 78% since the first half of 2019. And we continue to expect 2021, R&D investments of $65 million. Gross margin was 60.5% in Q2, and 61.6% for the first half. This compares favorably, to the 61.3% gross margin in the first half of 2019, while absorbing incremental cost headwinds. We now expect more than $50 million of incremental cost pressures in 2021. We have taken pricing actions and our teams are delivering digital and volume-based efficiencies, while tenaciously acting on behalf of customers to ensure service levels. First half 2021 EPS of $3.44 was more than 3.5 times the $0.95 earned in the first half of 2019. These record earnings were achieved while absorbing 120 basis points of two-year income tax headwinds. That pressure was offset through the methodical execution of our efficient capital strategy, which lowered our weighted average share count by nearly 17%, versus the first half of 2019. Deploying capital efficiently over the long-term and across all our earnings drivers is delivering superior shareholder value creation, including, at least, $7.25 of EPS in 2021. While we continue to expect to deliver top and bottom-line growth each quarter of 2021 versus 2019, Q3 deliveries will be limited by supply availability. We expect supplier capacity gains to catch-up with our robust demand to support high volume of deliveries in Q4. For modeling purposes, we anticipate about 50% two-year EPS growth in Q3 and exceptional net sales and earnings in the fourth quarter and full year. Turning to, our balance sheet and cash flows. Customer prepayments of $119 million reflects, accelerated demand growth and larger backlogs. In the first half we generated record cash from operations of $161 million, investing $32 million in capital projects and $267 million in Sleep Number stock. We continue to expect approximately 650 stores by year-end and greater sales growth contribution from new stores in the back half. Our Q2 ending debt leverage was 2.2 times EBITDAR, compared with our longer-term target of 2.5 times to 3 times. At the end of Q2, $500 million remains of our authorization for future repurchases of our stock. Investing in Sleep Number continues to be attractive for shareholder value creation. With the above expected performance and further guidance increase, we expect to generate more than $300 million of cash from operations, in 2021. Our liquidity, balance sheet and team's passion, have us well positioned, to deliver superior value creation for the balance of 2021 and beyond. At this point, operator, please open the line for questions.