Earnings Labs

Snap-on Incorporated (SNA)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 31, 2020

$376.20

-2.15%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.54%

1 Week

+0.98%

1 Month

+3.74%

vs S&P

-4.24%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Snap-on Second Quarter 2020 Results Investor Conference Call. Please note that today's call is being recorded. And at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Sara Verbsky, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Sara Verbsky

Management

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to review Snap-on's Second Quarter Results which are detailed in our press release issued earlier this morning. We have on the call today, Nick Pinchuk, Snap-on's Chief Executive Officer; and Aldo Pagliari, Snap-on's Chief Financial Officer. Nick will kick off our call this morning with his perspective on our performance. Aldo will then provide a more detailed review of our financial results. After Nick provides some closing thoughts, we'll take your questions. As usual, we've provided slides to supplement our discussion. These slides can be accessed under the Downloads tab in our webcast viewer as well as on our website, snapon.com, under the Investors section. These slides will be archived on our website along with the transcript of today's call. Any statements made during this call relative to management's expectations, estimates or beliefs or otherwise state management's or the company's outlook plans or projections are forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those made in such statements. Additional information and the factors that could cause our results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are contained in our SEC filings. Finally, this presentation includes non-GAAP measures of financial performance, which are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for their GAAP counterparts. Additional information, including a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures, is included in our earnings release and in our conference, call slides on pages 14 through 16. Both can be found on our website. With that said, I'd now like to turn the call over to Nick Pinchuk. Nick?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Thanks, Sara. Before we get going, I want to thank the members of the Snap-on team. It's clear in this turbulence that they are among the special contributors who keep society intact when our days are dark. And in that essential challenge, we're prioritizing the health, safety and well-being of our associates, franchisees, customers and communities. Working from home, and when that's not possible, and there's a number of those instances, distancing using personal protective equipment, cleaning, deep and often staggering shifts and brakes, paying quick attention to symptoms and pursuing contact tracing. We worked hard to stay safe. But throughout this time, we're also invested in - investing in a continuing stream of essential new products. We've also invested in a continuing stream of essential new products, reinforced our brand and strive to maintain our team. The people of Snap-on are a great advantage. We're working hard to preserve them in the turbulence, and we'll continue to do so. For our franchisees we're active in helping, reaching out on a regular basis to understand their needs and those of their customers. When the virus passes, we know there'll be even more opportunities. We want our associates and our franchisees at full strength to capitalize on the possibilities. We now project that the virus plays out in three phases: First, the initial shock. A substantial interruption of activity at both the franchisee and the customer level. This was evident in late March and in April; second, a combination period. As operations and individuals develop more and more ways to safely pursue their opportunities against the COVID-19 environment. In fact, we appear to be seeing that effect through May, June and onward. And of course, we've actively participated in that process, broadcasting best practices, working hard to accelerate the comeback. Finally,…

Aldo Pagliari

Management

Thanks, Nick. Our consolidated operating results are summarized on slide six. Net sales of $724.3 million in the quarter compared to $951.3 million last year, reflecting a 22.9% organic sales decline, $14.4 million of unfavorable foreign currency translation and $2.3 million of acquisition-related sales. The organic sales decrease primarily reflected the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with sales declines in all three operating segments. In the quarter, while there was some variability from location to location, the declines in Europe were more pronounced. As anticipated, with government measures in place throughout the world, sales in the month of April were heavily impacted and were down significantly on a year-over-year basis. As locations began to reopen and as our operations and those of our franchisees adjusted to the virus environment, which included accommodations for various government-imposed restrictions, we began to see sequential improvements in activity as we move through May and June. Similar to last quarter, we accrued for restructuring costs associated with certain of our European-based operations. During the second quarter, we recorded $4 million of such cost which were reflected in each of our operating segments. Additionally in the quarter, we've identified $5.8 million of direct costs associated with COVID 19. These costs include direct labor and under-absorption associated with temporary factory closures, wages for quarantine associates, event cancellation fees as well as other costs to accommodate the current enhanced health and safety environment. Consolidated gross margin of 47.1% compared to 49.8% last year. The 270 basis point decrease primarily reflects the impact of the lower volumes, including costs to maintain manufacturing capacity and worker skill sets, 40 basis points of direct cost associated with COVID-19 and 30 basis points of restructuring costs. The decreases were partially offset by savings from RCI initiatives. The operating expense margin of 34.5%…

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Thanks, Aldo. The Snap-on second quarter, sales were down. Of course, we don't like it. But - the OpCo margin was 12.6%, 13.1% as adjusted, approaching the mid-teen level that we long-held as an aspirational target. EPS of $1.91 as adjusted, also down but still higher than any quarter before the end of 2014. The numbers are decreased, but we believe they demonstrated significant resilience and perhaps the greatest withering of our time. You see we have seen this movie before. That -- and that experience helped guide us through the depth of the shock and on to the continuing positive trajectory of accommodation. April is dark. But the rise from that point was of evident across the corporation from operation to operation. The tools group demonstrating the value of our direct model with sales in June reaching within 3.1% of last year's level. The future is not known. What we believe our learning and accommodation assures that we won't get shocked again and any future impact will be attenuated. And looking at the way the virus has affected everyday life, we believe abundant opportunities emerging for Snap - are emerging for Snap-on in the recovery. It appears that vehicles are going to be even more important. You can see already in China and in the U.S. Northeast, and that's music to our ears. And we are preparing launching new products, enhancing our brand, reinforcing our franchise network and maintaining the capabilities of our team. Now all of this represents a cost in the turbulence, but it ensures that we'll be fully enabled and stronger when the opportunities arise. And we believe what we're doing in these days of the virus will position Snap-on for continuing growth, increasing profitability and ongoing prosperity for years to come. Before I turn the call over to the operator, I once again -- I'll once again speak to our Franchisees & Associates. It has never been clearer that all of you are extraordinary people, playing a very special role in our world. For your ongoing success in surviving the shock and accommodating the turbulence, you have my congratulations for your significant contributions in maintaining our society, you have my admiration. And for your unfailing belief in the future of our enterprise, you have my thanks. Now I'll turn the call over to the operator. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll go first to Scott Stember with C.L. King.

Scott Stember

Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Good morning, Scott.

Scott Stember

Analyst

Nick, you gave a lot of good color on what's happening at recovery within the businesses. It seems like the Tools Group is probably experiencing the greatest recovery. Maybe talk about RS&I and C&I, how the cadence of sales recovery and how we could expect the quarter coming up.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Sure. Well, look, of course, we don't give guidance, but I'll tell you that's generally, of course, - what I say is never true everywhere in Snap-on, of course. But generally, we're seeing a combination across the vast majority of our operations, April, May, June, there was a progression of improvement through those periods. So don't get me wrong, the fact that I called out the Tools group, because they had done particularly well. There was a combination across every one of those groups. So, that's particularly in industrial, where - I called out the direct selling. They had some nice progression through that period in their direct selling activity. If you step back to -- and I think you would say across C&I, in general, you're seeing that. In RS&I, the sales were down, what were they down? Like 29.8% as reported, 29.5% or 29.4% as adjusted. But generally, you see a couple of pieces. One, the vehicle OEM projects are quite lumpy, and we see that in this period, and it's very hard to project that future and the equipment business, which generally is selling - after all selling to kind of a bifurcated situation they're selling to small businesses, which need psychological recovery to have the confidence to invest in the capital-light projects, which are our equipment. Now, the other piece of what I've just talked about is, there's a big dollop associated with the OEM and really that comes psychological view of the dealerships. Do they think the fact that maybe they're going to sell new cars - less new cars this year means they should pull in their horns, or as in other times, should they start investing, because they had need to depend more and more on used car and repair and parts flow? If it's the latter, there should be an uptick in those businesses.

Scott Stember

Analyst

Got it. And moving over to the financial services side, your originations were really not down all that much. But I guess that was explained by loans to the franchisees. Maybe just talk about the health of the franchisees and what you're seeing at the repair shop level.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Yeah. Look, I was just out with some franchisees last week, and they seem pretty strong. I mean, and I talked to a lot of them on the phone these days since I can't travel as much as I used to around the country. And they seem all quite positive. I would say that the originations - one of the things I will tell you that I think speaks volumes is we talked about the recovery, the accommodation of the Tools Group as shown in the 3.1%. Well, I'll tell you that in the quarters through this period, the sales off the van could be viewed as our work better than our sales to the bands. So fundamentally, what you see a little bit in that origination situation is some of our franchisees selling out of their inventory, big-ticket items, particularly tool storage, which they tend to happen in and inventory to try to accommodate the taste of the technicians. And therefore, you see that, but we see it as a great thing. Because fundamentally, the sales off the van are outpacing. The sales of the Tools Group showed a combination.

Scott Stember

Analyst

So that being said, the sale in June, if you were down only modestly sell in, are you saying you were off the van in June?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

I didn't say anything. I said it was better than the 3.1. That's what I said. I said it was better than the -- I think -- and I said significantly better. But that's what I'm willing to say in this situation. It clearly is what leads to the originations.

Scott Stember

Analyst

Got it. Good enough. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

And now we'll take a question from Gary Prestopino of Barrington Research.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Hey, Good morning everyone.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Hi, Gary.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

A couple of questions here, Nick. First of all, you -- well, first of all, are all your markets now open, especially on the van side, I mean, are you able to sell in the Northeast some of these areas…

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Oh, yes. Everything is open. It was -- there's a lot less variation now in terms of opening. When the virus hits, the shock hit, there was variations between regions. So the Northeast, you have a lot of people with attenuated activity, not as much say Southwest, as we’re talking about the swap between, not as much, but still attenuation. Now they've kind of come together. Canada, I don't know if I talked on the call, but Canada was like the basket case for a while. People were really shocked and U.K. was shocked and all of those businesses have -- all of those areas have started to come together. There is some arithmetic difference between them, but not enough to shake a stick at, I think, in this situation. So the guys are coming back. Now that's happened through the quarter at varying levels, part of the accommodation process.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Okay. And then you keep mentioning or you mentioned opportunities for your company, given this COVID-19 situation. I mean, are those opportunities really stemming from the fact that cars are getting older and that also thought process or the thematic thought process is that more individuals are going to want to own cars rather than taking public transportation. Are there other areas where you're looking on to capitalize that you didn't really talk about?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Well, I think those are the two big things, I'm talking about. But I think as -- I think a couple of things. I think -- I would say three things. One, of course, cars are getting older. They've gotten older every year. And the fact that it's a lower SAAR this year, probably cars will accelerate in terms of getting older, we think. And so that's one thing and that does keep driving. Cars keep changing and so the virus is kind of frozen people in. And so we expect to see a few slot of new technologies closed now, and then that drives our situation. Secondly, I think you and I don't want to get on the L to go down in Chicago. I don't think people are going to want to jump on a subway so much anymore and -- or at least depend on that. And so what we see in China, and we start to see that in the Northeast has increased driving, because people don't want to depend on collective transportation, because they know that things can go wrong in the situation. On top of which, if you read commercial real estate and cities are going down and I think residential real estate, I think people are moving out for the suburbs, and that means more driving. And finally, we think that this kind of pause gives more time for new technologies like advanced driver assistance systems, which change a lot of things and play right into our more complicated product and maybe even more electric vehicles, which changes the car park and helps us sell more tools. We have a kit that we've especially made, 53 tools just for electric vehicles. So when they roll out, we'll be ready to roll with them.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Okay. And then my last question, if you want to answer this. I'm just trying to get an idea. I mean, you said that sequentially, there was an improvement in sales throughout the quarter. Are you still seeing – did you still see a sequential improvement at the early part of Q3. I realize the seasonality there.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

We don't give guidance. And look, Q3 is a squarely quarter. However, so therefore, you've got vacations in Europe. You got the SFC, you got a lot of things floating through there. However, I did say, May, June onwards, that's about what I'm willing to say.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Okay. That’s fine. Thank you.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

And next, we have Christopher Glynn of Oppenheimer.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Nick, just to press on your willingness tolerance there a little bit more. Was the May-June onward dynamic for RS&I and C&I material or negligible?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Material. I mean it's – but look, I don't want to get overheated on these kinds of things. Everybody – I said already that nobody knows how the future is going to go. But what I did say is we are stronger against this kind of disruption by virtue of the accommodation, and we don't believe we will get shocked again. So if the world rises, maybe we bow it a little bit more. I – we expect – we're saying we saw that onward motion, And I think implicit, and accommodation is we get better and better at dealing with the environment. The shape of the curve is unclear. And I've already said the third quarter is. But we – like I said also, I like what I see.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Okay. And then you've had some restructuring. You may have some temporary cost actions going away. Is there a way to think about sequential leverage on whatever uptick we choose to model?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Well, we have had restructuring because it was in – it's mostly focused on Europe. I think six-tenth of this times $4 million is kind of in North America and the two, or not necessarily. It's kind of European focused, we'd say, mostly in general. We'd say that because while we saw – we've been watching Europe evolved for a while and seeing the weakness of the economics. So we've been prepared for this and raising through RCI or capacity. So we can deal with higher volumes with less in Europe. That's why we have this restructuring. I would say this only. There's a lot, I think, implicit, and we saying we are investing in products, enhancing our brand and maintaining our team. That means we're holding the people because we actually believe that our people are capable. And I don't know about other people, but we think these people are hard to duplicate. So we're holding on to them for dear life.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Okay. And last one for me. On SFC, I'm wondering if it's – some of the charge-offs were relatively light in the quarter, considering all that's going on. You talked about some consolidations. Are there any implications for the back half, did some of the mechanical calc of provisioning kind of get deferred in this dynamic? Or is it kind of a more continuity?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Look…

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Yes, just wanted to know about the financial performance to...

Nick Pinchuk

Management

I'll just say this, Chris. I feel better now than I did in the prior call in April. I feel better now. And I'll let Aldo comment.

Aldo Pagliari

Management

Yes. Chris, I'd just say that just to refresh everyone's memory, Q2 typically does see seasonal improvement as you progress from Q1. It's a period of time when people get their tax refunds, and obviously, we probably got a little bit of a bump up with stimulus checks coming in. But a reminder, not everybody got their tax refund yet because if you didn't submit your tax return electronically, you're still probably have it being reviewed the IRS. So there might be some tailwind that still occurs in Q3 from tax refunds. Having said that, the deferred payment programs forbearance they help a bit with the calculation, so if you look at the progress from Q1 to Q2, normally, we expect a 10 to 20 basis point sequential improvement. This time, we saw 70 and year-over-year, it was better by 40. I'd say, if you look year-over-year, there's probably 20, 30 basis points associated with the fact that you have deferred programs. So by definition customers on deferral couldn't be delinquent. So that will go away a bit. So I think you'll get more traditional levels. But geez, it looks a lot like a natural disaster from our history in the rearview mirror so far. So we'll see how the remainder plays out. It's still a pretty volatile environment. But like I said, we're pleased with the charge-offs in the quarter.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And now we'll go to David MacGregor of Longbow Research.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Yes, good morning everybody.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Hi, David.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Good morning. I wondered just for the sake of clarity rather than trying to fumble through a bunch of numbers, but just for the sake of clarity, can you just say what the originations would have been excluding the loans to the franchisees?

Aldo Pagliari

Management

Well, the contract receivables were up 26% in the quarter. So that's clearly broken out, if at contract receivables. So as Nick has mentioned, EEC was down 8.5%, David.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Right. All right. Maybe I'll take that up with the off line. I just want to make sure we're getting to an accurate number here. And then can you quantify the extent of the return from…

Aldo Pagliari

Management

To make it easy, the loans to the franchisees has nothing to do with EC. It has nothing to do with EC at all. So the EC originations…

David MacGregor

Analyst

I understand that. I I'll take it up with the off line, if that's okay. Returns, I wonder if you could quantify the extent of the returns in the quarter and the extent, I know they're treated as a contra revenue account. So the extent to which they were a headwind for Tools Group organic growth?

Aldo Pagliari

Management

I don't think there was anything notable in the quarter in that regard. I mean, I - from our perspective, it was just a regular quarter in terms of the returns, which we tend to look at. So I mean, I think that our guys didn't necessarily flush a lot back into the system more than they do in any regular quarter, there's some back and forth. But that didn't affect things in this situation.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Our franchisees, we think, are in pretty good shape.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Well, I guess that was my next question is just, I mean...

Aldo Pagliari

Management

No, I think the thing is some people might think franchisees are on hold or things like that, but that's not -- it's not really -- actually, there's a record for this all-time loan.

David MacGregor

Analyst

And could you clarify that for me, the record, what's the…

Aldo Pagliari

Management

Yes, it was the number of franchisees that are not paying, that are direct, they get to be on hold. For the record there...

David MacGregor

Analyst

In that combination…

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Parents came way down at the end of the quarter.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Okay. And then, I guess, overall, I wanted to ask about franchisee creditworthiness because this whole slowdown in mid-April came right after the regional kickoffs when you guys would have had a really high level of inventory, which makes it a little surprising to hear that you didn't see any kind of inflection in returns. But that being the case, how do you feel about credit worthiness overall right now?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Well, I – we think – actually, we think they're in pretty good shape. I mean, the sales off the van are, I think when you look at them from a year-over-year point of view and you look at them for this situation, they describe what I talked about in terms of shock accommodation. And as I said, they are pacing ahead of the Tools Group. So that's a pretty positive from a quantitative point of view. From a qualitative point of view when you talk to a broad group of them, you get – you kind of get some very positive feedback in terms of, of course, I'm the CEO. So maybe I do get feedback. But you hear experiences and when I'm in the garages, the garages seem to be working. Yeah, technicians dipped in the shock, but they came sort of pretty back, pretty quickly and the garages are humming, every garage I was at, the parking lot from garage was marked.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Do you think there's going to be any need for any route consolidation?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

No, I don't think so. But you look at everything, David, but I don't think so. I don’t think so.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Last question for me is just on the operating expenses. You had a little bit of a pullback here, a reaction. So I guess, congratulations on that. But I'm guessing a large measure of that may have been associated with the volume reductions. So I guess the question is, if we end up with W-shape recovery rather than the V shape that you seem to be assuming, what's the opportunity to take more out of the SG&A and the operating expense line going forward?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Well, look, I think first of all – first of all, I don't know what you call travel volume-related or not. I mean, I'm not sure it's so volume related, but you can travel and a lot of different things. And in other words, you have some reductions in this interim while you keep – while you do things, for example, you're not renting a hall or putting on a meal when you bring, you're not people together on a zoom situation. Now it's maybe not as effective, but the thing is you do work on that. So it's not all volume related. And I think I’ve already said though, that we’re determined to maintain our franchisees, maintain our brand, invest in new product and keep our team intact and I would suggest that we see that going forward because we believe we have great opportunities going forward. So my principal view – my principle approach to this is – our principal approach is to weather the storm, and I think we're doing that pretty good, given the levels of where we are and you look at the cash flows, I mean, the absolute numbers of the returns and then come out stronger because we're pretty sure we're going to have big opportunities. So if it's not an upward slope -- if it's not an upward slope, if it dips down some, we won't get shocked again. We'll get over it. It will come out stronger.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Just one last quick one, if I could. You mentioned that record low credit holds for franchisees. Is that due to an increase in franchisee attrition?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

No, no.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go on to our next question…

Nick Pinchuk

Management

We talk of percentage…

Operator

Operator

And next question will come from Bret Jordan of Jefferies.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Hi, Bret.

Aldo Pagliari

Management

Good morning.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

A question on inventory, I guess. You commented that turns were down to 2.3 times to support critical industries. And I guess the longer-term trend has gone from north of 4% to north of 2%. Is there something structurally different in the working capital model? Or what you're committing to for the critical industry customers as far as holding inventory? And I guess, can you give us sort of an idea what kind of product profile this is that's building in the inventory?

Aldo Pagliari

Management

Yes, Bret. Aldo. Certainly, we are continuously adding products that cater to the critical industry. There is unique requirements. Sometimes they're lower volumes, so it doesn't have the same level of addition as when a new product introduced to the Tools Group. But if you want to be a serious player in oil and gas and natural resources and aviation, there are certainly unique products that do not sell into the mechanic space that you have to have there. So we've been doing that as well. In addition, there's a lot of projects that we call kitting activity and that array in kitting activity, as an example, you might have 100 different items in the kit. As you stage it as you prepare for it, it requires higher levels of inventory as you prep and wait for other incoming items because not everything comes from a Snap-on facility. Oftentimes, the military or an aviation customer might like certain things that do not come from Snap-on, and they want that kitted in a rate with a tool storage cabinet that we might prepare for them, and we have a variety of different products that do that. And therefore, accommodating those requests forced us to expand both floor space and inventory when it comes to these things and we like that business.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

Okay. Is there sort of a target turns number, I guess, ex-COVID, where the sales obviously evaporated, but is there a ballpark we should be shooting for as far as that number?

Aldo Pagliari

Management

We think it could be better. We don't have an exact target that I'm going to delineate here today, but we think it could be better. I mean, obviously, the current situation puts a depressant on turnover tactics. But we've been getting a pretty good return on our inventory and in a low interest rate environment, we're more than willing to make investments in inventory, if we truly believe it will generate incremental sales.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

We don't see inventory necessarily as an independent variable, but we like to see a return on it. If we get a return on it, we're happy.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

Okay. And then one question, I guess, the franchise event that usually is held in August, I assume, is probably not as a live. Are you going to do anything sort of virtually? Or would there any be sales promotion to offset what would have been the get together?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Yes, we have an event. We're going to call live from the forge -- from the our IdeaForge here in Kenosha. And so we're going to go through a virtual event, trying to create the selling opportunity the ability to see new products and different -- in different forms like franchisees would get when they journey to places like Florida and went through the football field, so we'll have that. And so we won't have it in August, we'll have it coming up. We will happen in August, probably at the same time. But it's kind of geared at giving the franchisees a similar opportunity from a new product point of view. From a product ordering point of view, unfortunately, we won't be able to get as much of the training or the, I guess, the cultural bonding that occurs at the other franchisees. But we're going to have event that replaces it.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

And now we'll go to Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial Partners.

Ivan Feinseth

Analyst

All right. Thank you for taking my questions. How are you guys doing?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Safe.

Ivan Feinseth

Analyst

The average age of the vehicles on the road have now touched to a record high of almost 12 years. Do you track that to see -- I mean, when vehicles age? Are you selling more tools or when new car sales are increasing, which would be down the average age?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

We don't have a direct relationship to new car sales. It's the aging of the vehicles, and it's the changing of the vehicles that drives our requirements. We can be indirectly affected by a downturn. And what are they going to sell? $12 million this year, $11.5 million, which is a downturn. And the psychological impact on dealerships and the OEMs themselves can ripple through some of that project business or some of the willingness of the dealerships to embark on capital projects. But it isn't a direct relationship, where aging of the vehicles and the new technologies in the vehicles, our direct relationships, requiring technicians to deal with either more volume or newer types of systems where they have to have different tools.

Ivan Feinseth

Analyst

And then one of the amazing things in the pandemic is that the CEO from Polaris said earlier in the week that they are experiencing unprecedented demand for off-road vehicles and motorcycles. I mean this has, shockingly, I guess, created -- sales are on fire for all kinds of like wave runners and ATVs and side-by-side and even motorcycles, and even though Harley had a tough quarter, I think they're going to turn and they'll see strength as well. How do you or franchisees penetrate the mechanics in that area? Also, in a number of those places, they have a shortage of mechanics.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Sure. I think there's been a shortage of mechanics in a lot of places for a long time. I think the deal is that they're graduating 77,000 a year from technical schools, and they need $105,000 a year by retirement. So there has been a shortage, and so we have to -- it's been for some time. So you try to get that. Our people are in – our franchisees are in some of those places. But these are the advantages we think we – the opportunities we think we have. We say there's 1.3 million technicians in the United States and we only call on 850,000 of them. And some of those are the places like the off-road vehicles, where we may not get to. And so we have an opportunity. We think coming out of this, we've got tremendous opportunities, particularly if you're saying that people turn to, instead of going to -- instead of maybe taking more collective transportation, turn to RVs and other things. We think this is good for us, and the fact that we're confident.

Ivan Feinseth

Analyst

RV sales are on fire, ATV sales are on fire, everybody -- all kinds of personal transportation. Used car sales have been on fire. New car sales, the factories were shut down for a while because of the pandemic, but I'm sure that, that will pick up. So yes, I think people who are going to move away from cities, if they work at home then they don't have to be near cities, they can be anywhere, and then I think that will drive the need for personal transportation, cars, boats, ATVS, recreational type of stuff. So is there going to be a focus on developing specific tools for those types of vehicles? And then one last question, you have…

Nick Pinchuk

Management

That's right.

Ivan Feinseth

Analyst

53 specific tools for EVs. Can you give us some idea of what specific EV tool would be?

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Well, a lot of them would be -- a great category would be, we call them insulating tools. You poke yourself -- you poke around underneath an electric car, you level up fry yourself. So we have -- these are tools, which specifically create insulation between the point of contact and the user. And so we have an array of those, which we think will be very efficacious in this situation. And so I think they're going to be used. And then we have other tools as well that deal with the specific mechanism under an electric vehicle car -- an electric vehicle. But we think -- you point out, you just point there's all these opportunities for us. Change is our friend, and we think change is coming in this situation.

Ivan Feinseth

Analyst

I love it. Thanks again. Stay well.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Good to hear from you.

Ivan Feinseth

Analyst

Good to talk with you. You too.

Nick Pinchuk

Management

Take care.

Operator

Operator

And now that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn things back to Sara Verbsky for any additional or closing comments.

Sara Verbsky

Management

Thank you all for joining us today. A replay of this call will be available shortly on snapon.com. As always, we appreciate your interest in Snap-on. Good day.

Operator

Operator

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's call. We'd like to thank you again for your participation. You may now disconnect.