Donald Devlin
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Slide 11 contains our fourth quarter earnings bridge versus the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we earned $125 million of adjusted EBITDA compared to $151 million in the prior quarter. Price and mix was unfavorable by $21 million, primarily due to mix across the regions as well as lower paper prices in Europe and some of our Brazilian export markets. Volume increased by $18 million, largely due to Latin America and North America. Operations and other costs were unfavorable by $4 million, primarily due to seasonally higher costs in Europe. Planned maintenance outage costs were unfavorable by $17 million as we executed an outage at our Eastover mill after having no planned outages in the prior quarter. Input and transportation costs were slightly unfavorable by $2 million. Let's move to Slide 12. The overall European industry supply and demand environment continues to be challenging. However, market conditions have started to show signs of improvement as pulp prices began to rebound in the fourth quarter and the improvement continues into the first quarter. Our European cutsize paper prices exited 2025 EUR 100 per ton below where we exited the year in 2024. We communicated paper price increases to our customers and expect the realization to begin in the second quarter. Wood costs in Southern Sweden are starting to ease, although there is typically a 3- to 6-month lag before we see relief in our operations. In Latin America, demand is moving from the seasonally strongest fourth quarter to the seasonally weakest first quarter. This is also negatively impacting our geographic mix in the first quarter. We communicated paper price increases to our Brazil -- customers in Brazil and have started to see realization in January. We also communicated paper price increases to our export customers across other Latin American countries as well as Middle East and Africa region and are starting to see some realization in those regions in February. Turning to North America. Industry operating rates are improving. After peaking in June of last year, imports into North America have declined significantly throughout the second half of '25. We communicated paper price increases to our customers and expect the realization to begin in the second quarter. 2026 will be a transition year for North America as we work through short-term capacity constraints with the Riverdale supply agreement exits and the execution of the Eastover investments. The next few slides will provide the details and context for how this will impact this year's financial results. Slide 13 shows our capital spending outlook, which is expected to be $245 million in 2026 as we execute the majority of the $145 million investment at our Eastover mill. We expect '27 to return to prior levels as we wind down these strategic Eastover investments. And we are prioritizing strategic projects with the fastest payback so that '27 and beyond reflects lower costs, higher efficiency and stronger cash conversion potential. Let's go to Slide 14. To provide an update on our Eastover investments, these high-return strategic projects will add 60,000 tons of uncoated freesheet, reduce costs and improve our mix and efficiency. The paper machine optimization project is on schedule with the bulk of the work to be completed in the fourth quarter during a 45-day planned maintenance outage. This outage is about 30 days longer than a typical maintenance outage. Brand-new state-of-the-art sheeter will replace an existing cutsize sheeter, which is also on schedule and will be installed at the same time as the paper machine optimization work. The woodyard modernization project is on track, and we will be ramping up our hardwood operation in the second quarter. We are planning to start up the softwood operation in the first quarter of 2027. Again, we are investing in high-return projects like these to generate future earnings and cash flows. On Slide 15, let me walk you through how we see the North American sales volume bridging from 2025 to 2026. First, we expect to receive about 100,000 tons from Riverdale this year, which is 160,000 tons less than 2025. Second, the extended planned maintenance outage at Eastover will result in 30,000 fewer tons this year. To narrow this gap, we will be sourcing about 80,000 tons from our European operations. This will have a negative adjusted EBITDA impact to our European business of about $20 million due to tariffs and freight costs. We expect to gain another 35,000 tons productivity year-over-year. And we will also bring some additional external volume into our system to ensure we continue to serve our customers during this transition. Net difference is around 55,000 tons of lower sales volume in North America, with the majority occurring in the first quarter as we use our capacity to build inventory. As a result, we will have an approximate $20 million negative adjusted EBITDA impact in North America in the first quarter due to lower sales volume. On top of these items, we will have some additional impacts, which I'll provide more detail on the next slide, 16. We have a clear plan to meet our most valuable customer needs during this transition. We're building inventory ahead of the extended Eastover outage in the fourth quarter, importing from our European operations, and we'll use external conversions to supplement our internal sheeting capacity. We'll then draw down inventory as we move through the second half of the year as the Riverdale supply agreement winds down and the strategic investments at Eastover are implemented in the fourth quarter. In 2026, we will expect a negative $45 million adjusted EBITDA impact in North America from a combined sourcing mix, external conversion, freight impacts and onetime outage costs. Working capital timing over the course of the year nets to a negative $25 million overall related to inventory build and drawdown throughout the year and the settlement of our payable to International Paper for the Riverdale tons we buy. Let's go to Slide 17 to pull all of this together. So here is a summary of the year-over-year adjusted EBITDA and cash impacts that we expect to incur over the course of 2026. North America adjusted EBITDA impacts will total approximately $65 million across these 3 items, $20 million from lower sales volume of 55,000 tons, $20 million from external sourcing, conversion costs and freight, $25 million from Eastover onetime outage costs. Not related to this transition, but we also expect a $10 million charge in the first quarter from International Paper due to unusually high energy costs resulting from the recent cold weather that impacted the Riverdale mill. Europe adjusted EBITDA impacts will total approximately $20 million due to U.S. tariffs and freight on the 80,000 tons we'll be shipping to the U.S. From a free cash flow standpoint, in addition to the flow-through of these adjusted EBITDA impacts, we should expect a negative $25 million impact related to working capital. In summary, 2026 is a transition year for North America and the $85 million of onetime costs will largely not repeat in 2027. We will also not have the onetime $10 million charge from Riverdale for the cold weather impacts that I mentioned. We are doing all of this in order to serve our valuable customers and be able to ramp up the Eastover volumes in '27 after we gain the additional 60,000 tons of paper machine optimization project and 30,000 tons from the non-repeat of the extended outage. We will benefit from the additional tons from Eastover, the efficiency and flexibility and lower cost of the new sheeter as well as low cost from Eastover. On Slide 18, this illustrates our planned maintenance outage schedule for the full year by region and by quarter. Unlike last year, we had major planned maintenance outages in both mills in Europe. And this year, we only have a major outage at the Nymolla mill and it's in the fourth quarter. 2026 is also different than in the past few years where we had more than 80,000 tons or 80% of the total annual planned maintenance outage costs in the first half. This year, we have more than 50% of the total cost in the fourth quarter as we complete the Eastover investments. We strive to create long-term shareholder value by executing our strategy and delivering on our investment thesis. Keeping a strong financial position is the cornerstone of our capital allocation framework. This allows us to reinvest in our business, to strengthen our competitive advantages through the cycle and increase future earnings and cash flow. Since becoming an independent company just over 4 years ago, we've earned $2.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, reinvested over $800 million to strengthen our business, generated over $960 million in free cash flow, reduced debt by more than $675 million and returned over $0.5 billion to cash to shareowners. I'll now turn the call back to John on Slide 20.e 15, let me walk you through how we see the North American sales volume bridging from 2025 to 2026. First, we expect to receive about 100,000 tons from Riverdale this year, which is 160,000 tons less than 2025. Second, the extended planned maintenance outage at Eastover will result in 30,000 fewer tons this year. To narrow this gap, we will be sourcing about 80,000 tons from our European operations. This will have a negative adjusted EBITDA impact to our European business of about $20 million due to tariffs and freight costs. We expect to gain another 35,000 tons productivity year-over-year. And we will also bring some additional external volume into our system to ensure we continue to serve our customers during this transition. Net difference is around 55,000 tons of lower sales volume in North America, with the majority occurring in the first quarter as we use our capacity to build inventory. As a result, we will have an approximate $20 million negative adjusted EBITDA impact in North America in the first quarter due to lower sales volume. On top of these items, we will have some additional impacts, which I'll provide more detail on the next slide, 16. We have a clear plan to meet our most valuable customer needs during this transition. We're building inventory ahead of the extended Eastover outage in the fourth quarter, importing from our European operations, and we'll use external conversions to supplement our internal sheeting capacity. We'll then draw down inventory as we move through the second half of the year as the Riverdale supply agreement winds down and the strategic investments at Eastover are implemented in the fourth quarter. In 2026, we will expect a negative $45 million adjusted EBITDA impact in North America from a combined sourcing mix, external conversion, freight impacts and onetime outage costs. Working capital timing over the course of the year nets to a negative $25 million overall related to inventory build and drawdown throughout the year and the settlement of our payable to International Paper for the Riverdale tons we buy. Let's go to Slide 17 to pull all of this together. So here is a summary of the year-over-year adjusted EBITDA and cash impacts that we expect to incur over the course of 2026. North America adjusted EBITDA impacts will total approximately $65 million across these 3 items, $20 million from lower sales volume of 55,000 tons, $20 million from external sourcing, conversion costs and freight, $25 million from Eastover onetime outage costs. Not related to this transition, but we also expect a $10 million charge in the first quarter from International Paper due to unusually high energy costs resulting from the recent cold weather that impacted the Riverdale mill. Europe adjusted EBITDA impacts will total approximately $20 million due to U.S. tariffs and freight on the 80,000 tons we'll be shipping to the U.S. From a free cash flow standpoint, in addition to the flow-through of these adjusted EBITDA impacts, we should expect a negative $25 million impact related to working capital. In summary, 2026 is a transition year for North America and the $85 million of onetime costs will largely not repeat in 2027. We will also not have the onetime $10 million charge from Riverdale for the cold weather impacts that I mentioned. We are doing all of this in order to serve our valuable customers and be able to ramp up the Eastover volumes in '27 after we gain the additional 60,000 tons of paper machine optimization project and 30,000 tons from the non-repeat of the extended outage. We will benefit from the additional tons from Eastover, the efficiency and flexibility and lower cost of the new sheeter as well as low cost from Eastover. On Slide 18, this illustrates our planned maintenance outage schedule for the full year by region and by quarter. Unlike last year, we had major planned maintenance outages in both mills in Europe. And this year, we only have a major outage at the Nymolla mill and it's in the fourth quarter. 2026 is also different than in the past few years where we had more than 80,000 tons or 80% of the total annual planned maintenance outage costs in the first half. This year, we have more than 50% of the total cost in the fourth quarter as we complete the Eastover investments. We strive to create long-term shareholder value by executing our strategy and delivering on our investment thesis. Keeping a strong financial position is the cornerstone of our capital allocation framework. This allows us to reinvest in our business, to strengthen our competitive advantages through the cycle and increase future earnings and cash flow. Since becoming an independent company just over 4 years ago, we've earned $2.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, reinvested over $800 million to strengthen our business, generated over $960 million in free cash flow, reduced debt by more than $675 million and returned over $0.5 billion to cash to shareowners. I'll now turn the call back to John on Slide 20.