Steve McGarry
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open
Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Let's start where we usually do with the discussion of our loan loss allowance and provisions. The private education loan reserve was $1.3 billion or 5.5% of our total student loan exposure, which under CECIL includes not only beyond balance sheet portfolio, but also the accrued interest receivable of $1.2 billion and unfunded commitments of another $2.2 billion. Our reserve rate is up slightly from 5.4% in the second quarter of this year and 5.2% in a year ago quarter. Let's look at the major variables used to calculate our allowance for credit losses under CECIL. We continue to use movies base S1 and S3 forecasts, which are weighted 40%, 30% and 30% respectively. We expect to use this mix going forward except during extraordinary periods of economic uncertainty. Despite concerns about the health of the economy, forecasts provided by movies are remarkably stable. As an example, the weighted average forecast for college graduate unemployment is essentially unchanged from a prior quarter at 2.56% and down 31 basis points from the year ago quarter. As John discussed, prepayment speeds were slower than expected this quarter due to the increasing rate environment and our prepay speed model expects this slowdown to persist. This change caused an increase to our reserve of approximately $57 million compared to both the prior quarter and the year ago quarter. However, it is worth repeating what John has already pointed out, that this is a positive as the assets that we have paid to acquire will remain on our books and generate interest income for a longer period of time. New commitments are also an important variable in the calculation. Q3 is our peak lending season and we added $3.1 billion to unfunded commitments, which required a provision of $163 million. In comparison, we added $1.5 billion in unfunded commitments in Q2 of this year and $2.9 billion in a year ago quarter, requiring $121 million and $145 million respectively. Loan sales also impact the allowance and our $1 billion third quarter loan sale reduced the required reserve by $50 million compared to a reduction of $115 million in Q2 when we sold $2 billion of loans. There was no impact in the prior year quarter as there were no loan sales. So our total provision for credit losses on our income statement was $208 million in the quarter, an increase of $177 million from the prior quarter and $69 million from the year ago quarter. This quarter's reserve increase was driven primarily by strong volume increases and expected balance sheet growth due to slowing prepaid speeds. Should rates rise further, we could certainly see further swelling in prepayments and of course, if economic conditions and forecast deteriorate, we would be required to add additional reserves in the future under CECIL. Private education loans and forbearance were 1.4% at the end of the quarter, a slight increase from 1.3% at the end of Q2 '22, but lower than 2.3% from the year ago quarter. The large year-over-year decline is driven by the forbearances practice changes that we implemented a year ago. Private education loans delinquent 30-plus days were 3.7% of loans in repayment, unchanged from Q2 and up from 2.4% in the year ago quarter. It is worth reminding investors that a natural result of reducing forbearances is an uptick in delinquencies, which drove the year-over-year -- partially drove the year-over-year change. In the quarter net charge offs for private education loans were $98 million resulting in an annualized charge off rate of 2.7%, a slight uptick from 2.6% last quarter. Based on the current performance of our portfolio as well as the significant progress in levels of staffing in our collection team and other progress we made, we expect improvements as we look to the end of the year. We believe charge offs for the full year will be around 2.3% and as John already mentioned, expect 30-plus day delinquencies to drop in Q4 and end the full year in the low 3% range. Let's take a quick look at our net interest margin for the quarter, which came in at a strong 5.27% up from 5.03% in the year ago quarter. Our portfolio is continued to benefit from the rising rate environment with our interest earning assets repricing faster than our cost of funds over the past year. We expect our NIM will be right around 5.25% for the full year 2022. Looking at taxes, income tax expense was $30 million in the third quarter compared to $19 million in a year ago quarter. The difference represents an effective tax rate of 28.2% and is higher primarily due to lower than expected tax credits in 2022. For the full year, we expect our effective tax rate will be right around 26%. Turning to operating expenses, third quarter OpEx was $150 million compared to $140 million in the year ago quarter. The increase was 7% year-over-year, but meanwhile, key drivers of expense including applications processed and loans originated and dispersed, both increased 13% compared to the year ago quarter. This is a strong expense performance in the inflationary environment we find ourselves in. We will continue to focus on driving servicing, and acquisition costs lower on a unit basis. Finally, our liquidity and capital positions are strong. We ended the quarter with liquidity of 23.2% of total assets and at the end of the third quarter, total risk-based capital was at 14.6% and CET1 13.3%. GAAP equity plus loan loss reserves ratio we'd like to look at in the CECIL era, over risk weighted assets was a very strong 15.7%. We are well positioned to continue to grow the business and return capital to shareholders going forward. Jon, back to you.