Steven McGarry
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is open
Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. As this is a straightforward quarter, I will keep my comments relatively brief and to the point. Let's start with a discussion of our loan loss allowance and provision. The private education loan reserve was $1.2 billion or 5% of our total student loan exposure, which, under CECL, includes not only the on-balance sheet portfolio, but also the accrued interest receivable of $1.3 billion and unfunded loan commitments of another $1.2 billion. Our reserve at 5.4% of our portfolio is unchanged from 5.4% in the prior quarter, but down significantly from 7.5% in the year ago quarter. Let's now look at the major contributors used to calculate our CECL reserve, which we've highlighted each quarter since we implemented. First, economic forecast and weightings in both the first and second quarter of 2021. We used Moody's base S1 and S3, weighted 40%, 30%, 30%, respectively. There was modest improvement in the forecast between Q1 and Q2, resulting in a slight improvement in reserving needs. However, needless to say, there was sharp improvement year-over-year as we were using base and S4 weighted 50% each in the prior year. And of course, the economic outlook was much dire just a year ago so this resulted in significant improvement year-over-year. Turning to prepay speeds. They were slightly slower in Q2 compared to Q1, resulting in an immaterial increase in our reserving needs from the prior quarter. However, prepay speeds were significantly higher than a year ago, also contributing to the sharp improvement that we've seen. Turning to new commitments. We are now in the early days of our peak lending season, and unfunded commitments increased $700 million from the prior quarter and are relatively unchanged from the year ago quarter. The increase in commitments accounted for the vast majority of our loan loss provision in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Finally, loan sales, obviously, very light activity here and the impact of these loan sales was immaterial to the reserve in the second quarter of 2021. The factors described here, in addition to other factors, including overlays and the natural accretion of our discounted reserve, resulted in a $69.7 million provision for credit losses in our private student loan portfolio. Let's now take a little bit of a closer look to our credit metrics, which can be found on Page 8 of the investor presentation. Private education loans delinquent 30-plus days were 2.1% of loans in repay, flat to Q1 2021 and down from the year ago quarter. Private education loans in forbearance came in at 3%, an improvement from Q1's 3.7% and a sharp improvement from 9.3% in the year ago quarter. This is as expected given the economic improvement we have seen. Jon has already talked about the positive charge-off trends we are seeing. We have been cautioning investors that delinquencies and charge-offs were expected to deteriorate as we ended our pandemic support programs. However, based on continued strong performance, we did reduce our outlook for expected defaults, as you saw in our guidance. We now expect net charge-offs for the full year to be just under 1.5%, which implies higher charge-offs in the second half of the year, and this represents a meaningful improvement from what we were expecting just three months ago. We are, of course, keeping an eye on the impact of the end of the federal student loan holiday and other federal forbearance programs on our portfolio. However, economists believe that with the savings rate and consumption at the high levels they're at, consumers are likely to reduce savings and consumption and continue to service their credit responsibilities going forward. Finally, I will just say we believe we are well reserved for the expected outcome on our credit performance. Let's look at net interest margin, which was reported on Page 6 of the investor deck. The net interest margin on our assets was 4.7% in Q2, up from the prior quarter and the year ago quarter. We continue to deploy excess capital through share repurchases and have managed our excess deposits and liquidity balances down. In addition, our deposit rates have become more in line with asset yields over the last year. Both factors contributed to our NIM increase, and we continue to expect NIM for the full year of 2021 will come in at 4.75% as a result of continued NIM expansion in the second half of the year. That 4.75% is for the full year, of course. A couple of brief comments on second quarter operating expenses. They came in at $128 million compared to $126 million in the prior quarter, about $142 million in the year ago quarter. Operating expenses in our core student loan business declined 8% from the year ago quarter, while loan serviced increased 3%. Our serviced increased 3%. Our focus on improving the efficiency of our operation is clearly paying off. Finally, our liquidity and capital positions are strong. We ended the quarter with liquidity of 20.4% of total assets. And at the end of the second quarter, total risk-based capital was 14% and CET1 13.7%. Post CECL, we've also been reporting GAAP equity plus loan loss reserves, which came in at a very strong 15%. Our balance sheet remains solid in terms of liquidity, capital and loan loss reserves, positioning us well to continue to grow our business and return capital to shareholders. Back to you, John.