Jack Remondi
Analyst · Buckingham Research
Thanks Al and good morning everyone. This morning I will review our operating results for the quarter on both a GAAP and a core earnings basis. In addition, I’ll review our funding activity and liquidity, provide an update on our lending business and review the performance of our private credit portfolio. Finally, I’ll provide an update on our FFELP business opportunities and the outlook for the remainder of 2009. Today Sallie Mae reported net income on a core earnings basis of $13.9 million for the first quarter, which after the payment of preferred dividends resulted in a core earnings loss of $0.03 per share. These results compared to earnings of $0.08 per share in the prior quarter and $0.34 per share in the year ago quarter. As Al said, this quarter’s loss was the direct result of the continued broken relationship between the commercial paper rate, the index in which our federal student loan assets are based and LIBOR, the principal index in which our liabilities are based. Since the Federal Reserve intervened in the commercial paper markets in 2008, the CP LIBOR relationship has widened to unprecedented levels with extreme volatility. This fact caused the Federal Reserve to caution that the CP index is not likely comparable to historical periods. In the fourth quarter the Department of Education also recognized this issue and adopted an alternative approach to calculating the CP rate to better match money market conditions. This quarter the Department of Education made no such adjustment. As a result, the CP LIBOR spread for the quarter was 42 basis points wider than normal, reducing net interest income by $139 million and earnings by $0.19 a share. This quarter’s results were also impacted by the terms of the DOE participation program. This program is structured, such that the liability rate is based on the prior quarter’s commercial paper rate. It was done for operational ease for the Department of ED. As a result in a quarter, where interest rates declined sharply, the funding cost for this facility was $40 million higher, reducing core earnings per share by $0.05. Combined, these two items reduced earnings by $0.24 in the quarter. Finally, this quarter’s results include $74 million in impairments in our purchase mortgage portfolio or $0.10 a share. Our mortgage portfolio is carried at 67% of the estimated collateral value and includes an additional 10% decline in the price of residential real estate. Net interest income was $429 million for the quarter versus $567 million in the prior year; and the net interest margin decreased to just under 90 basis points from 1.24% in the year ago quarter. Net interest income on our federal loans of $61 million was $129 million lower than the fourth quarter due to the CP issue I described earlier. Our private credit portfolio generated net interest income of $395 million in the quarter and a 1.1% spread after provision. In the quarter, we earned $28 million in hedged Floor Income versus $38 million in the year ago period and we earned an additional $107 million in Floor Income that is not included in our core earnings; that’s up from $9 million in the prior quarter. If this was included, we would have increased earnings per share by $0.14 in the quarter. We booked $297 million provisions for our private credit portfolio in the quarter, versus $160 million a year ago and $348 million in the fourth quarter. Our provision in the fourth quarter included an estimate for increased losses as a result of changes in our forbearance practices. In addition, this quarter we provided $40 million for federal loans versus $33 million in the fourth quarter. At March 31, our allowance for private credit loans covered 9.3% of loans and repayment. Combined, our federal and private credit allowance covers eight quarters of expected charge-offs in both portfolios. Charge-offs within our private credit portfolio varied significantly from 2.2% of traditional loans to 14.5% in the non-traditional portfolio. This compares to 1.7% and 12.3% respectively in the fourth quarter. In addition, within our traditional portfolio, the charge-off rate for loans with a co-borrower, which is the primary focus of new lending for us, was 1.5% and even at these elevated levels of charge-offs our private credit portfolio earned a positive spread of 1.1% in the quarter. As discussed in prior calls and presentations, we changed our forbearance policies in the middle of 2008. As a result, loans and forbearance have declined sharply to 6.7% of eligible loans at quarter end versus 16.4% a year ago. As expected this has contributed to an increase in delinquencies and ultimately charge-offs, but far less than a one-for-one relationship. However, despite the economic climate, as the delinquency data reveals, we are beginning to see some improvement in early stage delinquencies. In addition, we are also seeing a significant improvement in cash collections at our centers. For example, the number of delinquent borrowers across all buckets that are making payments has increased over 70% over the prior quarter. In our traditional portfolio, 90 day delinquencies increased to 4.3% from 1.8% in the year ago quarter and forbearance usage at quarter end declined 6.3% from 15.5%. Our new forbearance policies are reducing both the term of the forbearance granted and the usage contributing to the overall delinquencies. Reserves for traditional loans at March 31 equal 5.4% of loans and repayment. In our non-traditional portfolio, 90-day delinquencies year-over-year increased to 19.1% from 10.7%, while forbearance usage declined to 8.5% from 21.4. Reserves for this portfolio were at 32.2% of loans and repayment. Fee income in the quarter totaled $239 million compared to $200 million in the fourth quarter. This quarter’s results include $77 million in impairments in our purchased paper portfolios versus $45 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of $8 million in guarantor servicing fees due to seasonal factors and $64 million in gains from repurchasing debt versus $27 million in the fourth quarter. A full description of our fee income is provided in the supplemental earnings release. Operating expenses including restructuring charges of $5 million were $297 million in the quarter, an 18% decrease from the first quarter of 2008. Within our lending segment, operating expenses declined significantly to $131 million in the quarter from $164 million a year ago or 29 basis points of managed loans and that’s down from 39 basis points in the first quarter of 2008 and 48 basis points in the first quarter of 2007. Our scale and efficiency are significant competitive advantages, helping us to secure market share in the student loan marketplace. In the first quarter of 2009, we began to see some welcome signs of activity in the capital markets. In this environment we completed our previously announced $1.5 billion private credit securitization. We also completed three securitization transactions of consolidation loans and student-loan backed securities in the last three weeks, totaling $5 billion. Together, these federal student loan asset-backed transactions had an average life in excess of 7.5 years and spreads of 225 to 280 basis points over LIBOR. Although, these transactions carry a high cost, especially considering the fact that 100% of the underlying loans could default and the security holders would still be paid in full, they do provide life of loan funding for assets that are not eligible for the DOE conduit. In the quarter we raised $1.2 billion in term deposits at the bank, with an average life of 3.2 years and a cost of 200 basis points over LIBOR to fund our new private credit originations. We continue to see strong demand for this important funding source and as Al indicated we expect to close on a 364 day extension of our FFELP asset-backed CP facility this week. We intend to repay the private credit portion as planned. The DOE conduit, the Straight-A funding facility continues to move forward, but has suffered from numerous delays. We’ve been assured that the delays are operational and we expect this program to be funding in the next seven to 10 days. At the end of the quarter, 72% of our managed loans were funded for the life of the loan; another 11% is funded with fixed spread liabilities with an average life of 4.4 years. Our position has remained consistent throughout 2008 and 2009. We only make new term loans to the extent we’ve secured access to term financing first. At quarter end, we had $9 billion in primary liquidity consisting of cash and investments and committed lines. In addition we had $5 billion in standby liquidity in the form of unencumbered FFELP loans. Adjusted for this month, ABS transactions primary liquidity increased to $13.6 billion. We expect free cash flow over the next 12 months to total approximately $7.5 billion versus corporate debt maturities of $5 billion. A sort of company that generates very strong free cash flow; this cash is principally generated from principal payments from our loan portfolios, cash distributions from our securitization trusts and other cash flows including net earnings and slower income. In addition we expect to obtain significantly higher advance rates for under the Straight-A funding vehicle compared to the asset-backed CP facility funding those loans today. During the quarter we originated a record $6.6 billion for FFELP loans, an increase of 10% from the prior year and through the first three quarters of the academic year we have originated $16.1 billion of federal loans for our book and an additional $2.5 billion for third-party clients. In total we expect to originate over $22 billion of federal loans in 2009. Our ability to meet the growing demand for federal student loans is the direct result of the ECASLA legislation sponsored by Chairman Kennedy and Miller. This program will allow us to ensure that every student at every school will continue to have access to student loans this year and next. Our private credit originations totaled $1.5 billion in the quarter, a decrease of 40% from the year ago, which significantly increased the quality of loans we’re underwriting in this area. In the most recent quarter for example, the average FICO score was up 18 points to 734 and over 74% of loans may have had a co-borrower. For our new program that has been launched this quarter, over 90% of the volume coming in has a co-borrower. This program which was introduced this quarter called the Smart Option loan requires interest only payments during in-school periods and shorter repayment terms. Combined, the typical borrower will save over 60% in finance charges over the life of the loan, dramatically improving loan affordability for students. Total equity at March 31 was $5 billion, resulting in a tangible capital ratio of 1.8% of managed assets unchanged from year end and with 81% of our managed loans carrying an explicit government guarantee and with 72% of managed loans funded for the life of the loan. We believe our capital levels are appropriate given our asset and funding mix. For GAAP, we recorded a first quarter net loss of $21 million or $.10 per diluted share and that compares to a net loss of $104 million or $0.28 per diluted share in the year ago quarter. The loss as with core earnings is the result of the CP issue and the interest rate timing issue discussed at the beginning of my remarks. In addition, we had a $261 million mark-to-market loss on the value of our residual assets. Combined, these items reduced net income by $394 million or $0.53 per share. Our GAAP results also include the net impact of derivative accounting that increased net income by $54 million. The net impact of derivative accounting under FAS 133 are recognized in GAAP, but not in our core earnings. The GAAP provision for loan losses was $250 million for the quarter, including $203 million for our private credit loans. GAAP net interest income was $215 million for the quarter and under GAAP accounting, as you know the provision for loan losses and net interest income are based only on the on balance sheet portfolios, compared to core earnings which are based on managed loans. Over the next several months the administration and Congress will consider significant changes to the federal student loan programs. In addition, we and other lenders are likely to put tens of billions of dollars in federal loans to the department under the ECASLA program. We will compete vigorously to demonstrate the value we bring to the federal loan programs. We believe the best program for students, schools and tax payers will leverage low cost federal funding, offer students and schools the ability to choose the origination platform and processes that best meet their needs, create competition to enhance the level of service and lower the cost of the program for tax payers. We also believe that the program should require services to have skin in the game by retaining risk in the performance of the loan and by not incurring implementation risk by forcing over 75% of schools to adopt an origination platform they did not choose. We believe we can deliver the savings outlined in President Obama’s proposal in a time assured process. We believe a program built off the foundation created on under ECASLA and the President’s proposal, can meet or exceed the budget savings and funding for Pell Grants as proposed by President Obama, while delivering a better program for students and schools. As Al described earlier, the savings forecasted by the CBO are produced from the government acting as a bank, earning the profit from making 6.8% to 8.5% fixed rate loans to students funded with low cost Treasury debt. They are not the result of eliminating lender subsidies and our proposal provides compensation to participants on a fee-for-service model, the same approach used in the President’s budget proposal. In addition, this week the Department of Education issued the final RFP for servicing FFELP loans that are put under the participation and put program or the ECASLA program. This contract will govern the servicing of the expanded future federal student loan products and we expect the contracts to be awarded in early June. As the largest lowest cost servicer of student loans, we believe we are well positioned to participate in this contract and we are confident that we’ll be selected. For 2009, there remain many variables that could have a material impact on our results. These include the CP LIBOR spread, funding availability and costs, credit costs and whether or not we put the 2008/2009 federal loans to the Department of Education in September. Given the uncertainty surrounding these issues, especially the CP LIBOR spread, it’s difficult to provide updated guidance at this time. With that, I’d now like to open the call to your questions. Operator, we’re ready for questions.