Marc Holliday
Analyst · Bank of America
Hello, and thanks for joining our call this afternoon. The positive economic conditions in New York City provided the backdrop for a very solid first quarter of 2013. First, and foremost, we leased nearly 600,000 square feet of space in Q1 with almost half of that amount represented by new leases. This momentum carried through to April where we have already leased an additional 164,000 square feet in just the first 3 weeks of the second quarter. Moreover, we have a strong pipeline of deals, evidenced by over 1 million square feet of leases that are either out for signature or under negotiation categories that, we believe, represent high probability categories of consummating sometime during the year 2013. About 0.5 million square feet is represented by new leases. So you can see that relative to last year, in particular, there's a lot of activity and a lot of success we're having at renewing tenants but also filling vacant space that we acquired in the growth portfolio. While mark-to-market on the office leases in the first quarter was just slightly positive, I do want to stress that I think you'll see more significant mark-to-market gains throughout the year as we have already experienced good mark-to-market in leases signed in quarter-to-date, in second quarter, and our pipeline looks very strong as well. So we are maintaining our full year office mark-to-market objective of 3% to 8%, which was something that we had highlighted back in December and notwithstanding 1 quarter down and 3 to go, we still think that, that will represent an accurate range of where we'll ultimately land. And that, I think, gives you some insight into the kind of leasing that's in front of us, not only in terms of volume, but in terms of economics. It was also notable that the concessions were down significantly in the first quarter, consistent with prior lows we've had in other quarters but certainly down from our average. And this is attributable, in some respect, to being very prudent on renewal leases and getting best deals possible. But even on new leases, you'll see that we're cutting more in the way of net effective deals. And so you don't always see that big pop in headline rent but we're also doing it very efficiently, trying to be smart about how we spend our capital to buy new deals. We're seeing very good demand in various sectors of the market, all but the largest financial firms, there's a lot of activity and we're seeing great activity in professional and business services, media, advertising, tech, health care and education. I would say all of those sectors, almost equally, are net contributors to absorption in this market. I know that many of the analysts are focused in on the potential space shutting that may occur in the future at some of the largest commercial and investment banks. But I think that would be a mistake to let that overshadow the very vibrant business and leasing environment in the midsize space market where we see much demand and competition for space. Examples of locations where we are experiencing a pickup or continuation in demand include the 125 Park, 3 Columbus Circle, Graybar, 810 Seventh, Tower 45, 919 Third and 304 Park Avenue South. And this morning, many of you have seen that we and Vornado announced 100,000 square feet of leasing at 280 Park Avenue, which represented renewal and expansion space for those 2 tenants and we have very good activity on the balance of the building, notwithstanding the full completion of the redevelopment is still a year away with completion of the lobby set for sometime around Thanksgiving. Our retail leasing also remains strong with deals announced this morning with CBS at 3 Columbus Circle and that lease with CBS is the anchor retail tenant that we had talked about landing as an important goal and objective for this company in 2013, so we're happy to have CBS join our roster of retail companies at 3 Columbus and having that objective completed so early the year, as well as retail leases that we did with Urban Outfitters and TD Bank at 180 Broadway bringing that building to full occupancy, 100% occupancy, for a tower that we developed from ground up. This leasing activity can be directly linked to the robust job creation in New York City. New York added 78,000 jobs in 2012 and that followed an increase of 90,000 jobs in 2011. The primary sources of growth, I mentioned before, but I'll sort of reiterate here: professional services, technology, health care and education, not in terms of square footage, as I mentioned earlier, but in terms of job creation. But those are the sectors where we see the biggest contributors. Overall, employment was up 13,000 jobs in the first 3 months of 2013 and this increase was achieved, notwithstanding the drag created by a reduction of 5,000 financial services jobs in March, which shows that these growing sectors can more than counter, counter by a wide margin, the job losses that we're seeing at the margins in the financial service sector are being far exceeded by job growth in these other industries. And we expect that trend to continue throughout the year and that -- our rule of thumb is typically anywhere between 40% to 50% for private-sector job growth, it translates into office-using job growth. So we think this bodes very well for stabilizing or even possibly, an increase in the overall occupancy rates in overall Manhattan market. So with that short introduction, I would like to open up for questions and answers.