Paal Kibsgaard
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Thank you Simon and good morning everyone. Negative market sentiments intensified in the fourth quarter with global oil production of oil continuing, extending the various trend in global oil inventories and causing a further fall in oil prices, which reach a 12-year low in December. The worsening market conditions added further pressure to the deep financial crisis throughout the oil and gas value chain and prompt the operators to make further cuts to the already low E&P investment levels. For many of our customers, available cash and annual budgets were exhausted well before the half way point over the fourth quarter, leading to unscheduled and abrupt activity cancellations, creating an operating environment that is increasingly complex to navigate and where the traditional year-end product and multiclient seismic sales were largely muted. As planned we implemented another significant adjustment to our cost and resource base during the fourth quarter, including the release of 10,000 employees as well as further streamlining of our overhead infrastructure and asset base. In spite of these significant structural adjustments, our overall fourth quarter results were in some areas impacted by events that were either outside of our control or where we chose to maintain cost and resource levels, pending availability of additional customer budgets in the New Year. However, as we exited the fourth quarter, I believe we’ve made the necessary adjustments to our cost and resource base and that we’re well positioned to continue to deliver solid financial results in both the first quarter and throughout 2016, which will clearly be another very challenging year for our industry. Looking closer at our fourth quarter results, global revenue fell 9% sequentially, driven by a continuing decline in rig activity and persistent pricing pressure throughout our global operations together with a broad range of activity disruptions, project delays and cancellations. In North America revenue was down 14% sequentially, which is inline with the reduction in the drilling rig counts and driven by exhausted customer budgets and cash flows together with the extended holiday period. Our North American pre-tax operating margins remain very resilient at 7.1% driven by proactive cost and resource management, excellent performance from our supply chain and distribution organization, strong execution and new technology sales from our operations, all of which were further supported by our transformation program. On land, in both U.S and Canada, the weakening activity resulted in additional commercial pressure for all product lines and in particular in pressure pumping where pricing levels drop further into unsustainable territory for both operating margins and cash flow. We also saw continuous pricing pressure and activity reductions in the U.S., Gulf of Mexico, as the drilling rig count drops by another 2% sequentially and where year-end multiclient seismic sales were largely muted. Turning to the international markets, revenue were 6% lower sequentially as customer budget cuts, the start of the seasonal winter slowdown, and the absence of the traditional year-end product and multiclient seismic sales all impacted results. Our fourth quarter international operating margins drop to 22%, driven by a further pricing pressure and unfavorable revenue mix and a significant impact of activity disruptions, particularly in the Middle East and Asia. In Latin America revenue declined 1% sequentially with pre-tax operating margins improving by 229 basis points to 23%. In terms of revenue, solid activity in Mexico and Ecuador was offset by a further budget reductions in Colombia and Brazil, while the weakening of the peso had a negative impact in our fourth quarter revenue in Argentina. Margins remain resilient across the area as the cost and resource base adjustments made during the previous quarter took full effect and as we continue to leverage our transformation program. This combination more than offset the persistent pricing pressure we saw throughout our customer base. In Europe/CIS/Africa, revenue fell 9% sequentially, while pre-tax operating margins dropped 138 basis points to 20.8%. The drop in revenue was led by Russia and Central Asia, where a further weakening of the ruble, the start of the seasonal winter slowdown in Russia, and a noticeable reduction in activity throughout the Caspian region, all impacted the results. In Europe, activity in Norway was resilient, but this was more than offset by a significant reduction in continental Europe and U.K., while in Africa solid in Nigeria and Algeria was not enough to offset the further weakening in the Central and West Africa. In the Middle East and Asia, revenue declined by 5% sequentially, while pre-tax operating margins decreased by 448 basis points to 22.5%. The sequential drop in revenue was led by Asia where we saw a general weakening in activity throughout the region, which was most pronounced in Malaysia and Australia, where project ended and customer budgets were cut further. Fourth quarter revenue was also down in the Middle East, where solid activity in Kuwait and Iraq was more than offset by reductions in the rest of the region. In terms of operating margins, pricing pressure across the area was only partly offset by adjustments to our cost and resource base and where project cancellations, delayed start off of new project, and activity disruptions due to 2015 budget limitations, all contributed to the sequential reduction in operating margins. Our fourth quarter results cap a year where we’ve faced the most severe industry downturn in 30 years, but where we through proactive management and strong execution, have shown that we can navigate the challenging operating environment better than most and produce solid financial results while maintaining the bandwidth to pursue and capitalize on opportunities that strengthen the competitive position of the Company. So as we prepare for another very challenging year, I’d like to summarize what we’ve delivered in 2015, as this sets a very good benchmark for our expectations and ambitions for the year to come. Looking first at the top line, full-year revenue dropped by 27% in 2015, driven by a 39% drop in North America where we’ve further strengthen our market position in spite of our decision not to pursue work that falls outside of our financial return requirements. Our international revenue fell by 21% in 2015, which is comparable to the drop in E&P investments. Included in this revenue drop is both the impact of our higher leverage towards the exploration, deepwater, and seismic markets, where E&P investment saw significantly higher reductions and also included the impact of the strong dollar against a number of foreign currencies. These revenue mix headwinds are fully absorbed in our results at this stage, which makes our international business a highly compressed coiled spring, which we will capitalize on when E&P investments and customer activity starts recovering. In addition to this, we’ve in the past year significantly increased our tender win rate, which further strengthens our very solid contracts portfolio and puts us in a great position to increase market share going forward. Looking at 2015 profitability, full-year global operating margins fell by only 342 basis points to 18.4%, as we maintained our wide margin lead in the international markets and as we now are also approaching a similar margin gap in North America. We’ve managed to protect our margins due to a very proactive approach to cost and resource management and by further accelerating our corporate transformation program. Together these actions have delivered detrimental margins of 31% in 2015, which is about half the level seen in previous downturns. Turning next to cash, our free cash flow in 2015 was about $5 billion, which represents net income conversion rate of 114%. This includes CapEx of $2.4 billion, which is now down to 59% of DNA, in addition to investments of $1.4 billion in future revenue streams in the areas of SPM and multiclient seismic. Our ability to generate free cash in this part of the cycle is unmatched in the oil field services industry and gives us a unique ability to capitalize on the significant business opportunities that the current market conditions present. From our free cash flow we’ve returned $4.6 billion of cash to our shareholders through $2.4 billion in dividend payments and $2.2 billion worth of stock buyback. In addition to this, we’ve spent about $500 million on M&A, where we continue to target smaller disruptive technology companies that we can integrate into our existing and future workflows and deploy through our expensive global organization. The strength of our free cash flow can also be seen from our net debt level which has only increased by $160 million on a full-year basis, driven by the financial performance I’ve just described. With respect to the pending Cameron transaction, the integration plans are now largely completed and we are fully ready for day one. We still expect to close the transaction during the first quarter of 2016, and we’ve already received antitrust approvals from the U.S., Canada, Russia, and Brazil. The fact that we structured the deal to include 78% of stock provides us with a necessary installation from the ongoing market turmoil and during the fourth quarter we also secured the required financing for our U.S entity that will make the acquisition. Turning next to people, we’ve in the past year unfortunately have to reduce more than 34,000 employees, which represents an unprecedented number for the Company and where we all have been impacted as we’ve gone through the disheartening process of letting colleagues and friends go in all parts of the Company. I’m at this stage optimistic thing we’ve completed the workforce reductions required in this downturn and I look forward to be able to shift focus throughout our organization from the negative sentiments of the past year towards a brighter future as we work through the remaining challenges of this downturn. In terms of R&D, we did reduce investment levels in 2015, but we were still able to protect our capabilities and ensure the progress of all our key projects. In the past year we made solid advances on several new technology fronts through a combination of organic and inorganic efforts and we look forward to update you further on this in our external communications in the coming year. And lastly in 2015, we significantly accelerated our corporate transformation program, stepping up both investment levels and the detailed engagement of our global organization. As part of this, we prepared a comprehensive and granular three-year transformation plan covering each of our 600 business units with specific deliverables and business impact goals set at all levels in our organization. In parallel with this, we’ve delivered noticeable cost savings and efficiency gains that can be seen in our 2015 financial results, together with a 23% reduction in our customer NPT rate, which is the largest annual improvement we’ve ever achieved. In summary, while 2015 has been extremely challenging year for the industry and for Schlumberger, we’ve clearly demonstrated our ability to navigate a complex landscape and capitalize on the opportunities the current business environment presents and we’re fully prepared to repeat these efforts and achievements in 2016. So while we all look forward to a recovery in the oil price, and the market conditions in our industry, it is evident that the longer the current market environment continues, the stronger we will emerge as a Company relative to our competitors when the upturn ultimately comes. Turning next to the market outlook, we still believe that the underlying balance of supply and demand continues to tighten, driven by both solid growth in demand and by weakening supply as the dramatic cuts in E&P investments are starting to take effect. In North America, our shale oil production is declining more or less as we expected and was in December below the levels from one year ago. The apparent resilience in production outside of OPEC and North America is in many cases driven by producers opening the taps wide open to maximize cash flow, which also means that we will likely see higher decline rates after these short-term actions are exhausted. So while the global oil market is still being weighed down by fares to reduce growth in Chinese demand, the magnitude of additional uranium exports and the continued various trends in global oil inventories, we still expect a positive movement in oil prices during 2016 with specific timing being the function of the shape of the non-OPEC decline rates. This means that the market outlook for oil field services in the coming quarters will remain challenging at the pressure on activity and service pricing is set to continue. It also means that 2016 E&P investment levels will fall for a second successive year and that any significant recovery in our activity levels will be a 2017 event. Still at Schlumberger we remain confident in our ability to weather this downturn much better than our surroundings and to our global reach the strength of our technology offering and our corporate transformation program, we’re currently creating a considerable leverage that will enable us to increase revenue market share, deliver superior earnings and margins and continue to generate unmatched levels of free cash flow. Thank you very much. We will now open up for questions.