Rob Simmons
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Today, we reported first quarter net income of $36 million or $0.71 diluted earnings per share. Q1 pretax income was $50 million. Our diluted share count for Q1 was 50.7 million shares and our effective tax rate in Q1 was 28.2%. First, let’s talk about revenue. Total Q1 revenue of $535 million is down 27% from Q1 2020 and is down 9% from last quarter. Although, our Q1 block hour production was up 3% sequentially from Q4, as Chip mentioned, the sequential reduction in revenue was primarily driven by PSP2 related temporary partner revenue concessions and prorate seasonality. This breaks down with contract revenue down 27% from Q1 2020 and down 11% from Q4. In both of these comparatives, we have temporary partner revenue concessions in Q1 2021, but not in Q4 2020 or Q1 2020. Prorate revenue is still down 32% year-over-year and was down 4% from last quarter due to seasonality. As we’ve previously said, prorate revenue is nicely levered to a demand recovery. Leasing and other revenue is up 14% year-over-year and 18% sequentially. These GAAP results include the effect of the deferral of $21 million of revenue this quarter, compared to $111 million during 2020. As of the end of Q1, we have $132 million of cumulative deferred revenue that will be recognized in future periods. As discussed last quarter, the timing and amount of future deferrals and the reversal thereof into revenue depends on the shape and cadence of the recovery of our flying. All deferred revenue will be reversed into revenue by the end of the various contract periods. We may continue to defer some revenue into later 2021 when it could begin to reverse. Let’s move to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash of $836 million, up from $826 million last quarter. Our CapEx during the first quarter was $56 million for four used aircraft spare engines and other fixed assets. Our expectation for 2021 CapEx is approximately $650 million to $700 million, including the purchase of 18 new E175s later this year under our previously announced contract with American. This compares to $438 million in CapEx in 2020. We ended Q1 with debt of $3.1 billion, down from $3.2 billion as of year-end 2020. Let’s talk about liquidity, as of March 31, 2020, our cash position was $836 million in addition to availability of $665 million undrawn in our CARES Act loan and approximately $40 million available on our revolving line of credit. We have until later in May 2021 to decide how much additional draws we will make under the CARE Act secured loan facility, if any. Based on the high cost of warrant coverage of any additional draws on that facility, it is likely that we will not draw any additional amounts and may choose to also repay the $60 million outstanding currently on that facility and let that additional availability go. This would release $1.5 billion of pledged collateral under this government facility. During Q1, $193 million in PSP2 grants was recognized as income in the form of a contra expense laid out clearly as its own line item in our P&L. This is a change from grant income of only $3 million recognized in Q4. Subsequent to quarter end, SkyWest entered into an agreement with the U.S. Treasury for approximately $250 million in funding under the PSP3 program for airlines. $45 million of this amount represents a low interest, no amortization 10 year loan, $205 million of the $250 million is the payroll grant, expected to be recorded as income largely in Q2 and Q3 2021. Under PSP3, SkyWest will issue the U.S. Treasury Department warrants to purchase approximately 78,317 shares of SkyWest common stock at a strike price of $57.47. Also, subsequent to quarter end, SkyWest received an additional $35 million top-up to PSP2. This top-up breaks down as $10 million in debt and $25 million in grants with warrants to purchase 25,958 shares of SkyWest common stock at a strike price of $40.41. Last quarter, we estimated that we would burn cash in the first half of 2021 at a rate of about $250,000 per day or $7 million per month. Based on March ending cash of $836 million, we are running a bit better than our forecast. We expect to be slightly cash positive in the first half of 2021 before the possible voluntary repayment of the $60 million outstanding under our CARES Act secured loan. Depending on the pace of the recovery, we could be cash positive in the second half of 2021. If the economic effects turn out to be worse and the recovery is slower than we currently expect, we have additional liquidity tools that we can call on, including our cash balances, our revolver and either $665 million of undrawn availability under our secured CARE Act loan facility or the $1.5 billion of collateral that freeze up if we decide to let that facility expire next month. In addition to our strong core liquidity position, we are expecting 2021 and 2022 to be years, where we continue to focus on our balance sheet. As of March 31, 2021, our debt net of cash balance is actually $200 million lower than it was as of the end of the year 2019. In 2021, we expect to repay over $400 million in principal debt balances related to existing aircraft financing. Of course, we continue to expect to take delivery of additional aircraft in 2021 debt, as usual will be financed with long-term debt financing. But over the next couple of years, we expect to reduce our absolute debt balance, while maintaining strong liquidity. During Q1, the debt on another 24 used aircraft was fully repaid. Including partner-owned aircraft, over 50% of our fleet in service now has no financing obligation. We also continue to have minimal tail risk of around $100 million, the dollar delta between financing term and contract term on our fleet. Our next pocket of tail risk is now out to late 2022. Especially in times of great uncertainty like this and consistent with our policy and practice, we are not in a position to give any specific EPS guidance at this time. But let me give you a little color. Ignoring the effect of PSP3, net of related temporary partner concessions, we expect Q2 earnings to be close to breakeven. With the second half of 2021, likely positive both in earnings and cash flow. Continued headwinds to our model include several factors I’d like to call out. Number one, our prorate business was still unprofitable in Q1. Wade will talk more about this in a minute. Number two, maintenance expense was up $17 million from Q4 as we continue to prepare our fleet for a busy summer. Maintenance expense for 2021 will likely continue at the current run rate before finding a new lower normal level later in 2022. And number three, deferred revenue was $21 million in Q1 2021 and now it’s a cumulative $132 million. We expect to defer additional revenue until later in 2021 when it could start to reverse. And now some tailwinds, number one, production is trending higher into the summer with good demand for our product. Number two, new PSP3 program brings us $205 million in grant income to be recognized in Q2 and Q3 before any new temporary partner concessions. And number three, deferred revenue may begin reversing later in 2021, pending the timing of the recovery. We are excited that the actions we are taking now and expect to take over the next few quarters are setting us up nicely for the new normal in the future. Wade?