Jerry Atkin
Analyst · Maxim Group
Let me take a crack at that. Directionally, there will -- with certainty that there’ll be less -- fewer 50-seaters by 2020, for instance. There’ll be more of the over-50 seaters, in my opinion. The turbo props are still a bit of a question. The small turbo props are kind of unique answers to very small communities. The 30-seaters, we’ve still got some, most of the Saabs are gone, so the 30-seat sizes literally have not quite disappeared from the landscape, but what hasn’t will over the next few years I would expect. You’ve got quite a few of the 19-seaters doing some interesting things and then you get into the large turbo props and there’s kind of been a question whether the Q400 and the ATRs are sort of an alternative and a lot of different things. That one’s still unknown to me. I wouldn’t bet anything on whether those are going to be around or they’ll be none of them by 2020. I’m not sure where in my mind they play a big role going forward. I could be wrong about that. And then it’s really a question of what size. The number of seats may not change that much going forward, but I think they’ll shift from fewer 50 seaters. And it’s just really a matter of the fuel efficiency as hubs get combined, United, Continental, Delta, they’re concentrating on a few fewer hubs, it looks to me, or maybe that’s my opinion. Maybe that’s a fact, it’s a little bit of both probably. But as that happens it will justify the little bit larger ones, which if you can and they are a little bit more efficient, you know, obviously you know there’s the labor portion in there. So the fewer 50 seaters has got to be a fact because nobody’s making any new ones and they’re getting older, and some of them won’t last forever. So regardless of what anybody thinks strategically, there’s no question but what the 50 seaters are going to be reduced and to what degree the over-50 seaters is able to be increased is going to be based on the scope, cause and labor operation in doing it. But the fact that there’s the smallest airplane, if you put it on our economy, I think is the 320 or 73 7800 that any major carriers have ordered in the next little while, so there’s still an awfully big gap between that and zero to be filled. So exactly how labor and the economics in the customer demand is going to kind of -- but directionally, I think it’s the direction that I just pointed out, but we’re prepared to do that in different sized categories and that’s part of the question that we got asked a little earlier about the size of our airplanes, is the agreements that we’re reaching with suppliers, it expands the whole size that we can switch one to another.