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The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 23, 2016

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Transcript

Executives

Management

Aaron Broholm - Director-Investor Relations Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Mark T. Smucker - President, Consumer and Natural Foods & Director Steven Oakland - President, Coffee and Foodservice Barry C. Dunaway - Chief Administrative Officer David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks Vincent C. Byrd - Vice Chairman

Analysts

Management

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co. Alexia J. Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Mark E. Williams - Athlos Research Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Lubi Kutua - Jefferies LLC Bryan Keith Carlson - Tudor Investment Corp. Rob Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research LLC John Joseph Baumgartner - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to The J.M. Smucker Company's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers after the presentation. Please limit yourself to two initial questions during the Q&A session and re-queue if you then have additional questions. I will now turn the conference over to Aaron Broholm, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Aaron Broholm - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our third quarter earnings conference call. With me today and presenting our prepared comments are Richard Smucker, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Belgya, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for the Q&A portion of the call is Vince Byrd, Vice Chairman; Steve Oakland, President, Coffee and Foodservice; Mark Smucker, President, Consumer Foods; Dave West, President, Pet Foods; and Barry Dunaway, President, International. As a reminder, on March 1, Barry will be assuming leadership of the pet food segment. At that time, the International business will begin reporting to Mark Smucker. For the purpose of today's call, questions in these areas will be fielded by the current business president. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements that reflect the company's current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on a number of assumptions and estimates and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. I encourage you to read the full disclosure statement in this morning's press release concerning forward-looking statements. Additionally, please note the company uses non-GAAP results for the purpose of evaluating performance internally as detailed in the press release, which is located on our corporate website at jmsmucker.com. A replay of this call will also be available on our website. If you have any questions after today's call, please contact me. I will now turn the call over to Richard. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Aaron. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. It was a great pleasure to see many of you last week at CAGNY. We appreciated the opportunity to provide an update on a number of key initiatives that are going on across our businesses. One of our takeaways from…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The question-and-answer session will begin at this time. Our first question comes from Eric Katzman with Deutsche Bank.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everybody. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Good morning.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Richard, I guess you talked about some of the similarities across the companies at CAGNY last week, but I guess one of the differences we found out today was that your advertising spending is up significantly across the bulk of the business, whereas a lot of folks are cutting back on that. But I guess the question is you didn't really see benefit in terms of shipments and so how should we think about the fact that you're spending to support the business, which is good, but not really seeing the follow-through in terms of units out? Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I'll give it a general answer and then I'll ask the team to respond specifically, but our advertising primarily is a little more longer term and the benefits of the advertising don't just hit quarter-by-quarter. And a lot of that is brand building and we try to do it over time. We try to be consistent. And so we wouldn't expect to see it necessarily in the quarter. But if the team has any of the specific efforts that we made this past quarter, please speak up. Mark T. Smucker - President, Consumer and Natural Foods & Director: Yeah, Richard. This is Mark Smucker. I would just add, Eric, that we did pull back significantly on advertising last year so we are returning our advertising more to historical levels. And, as Richard said, it is around some building of equity. We have a new Smucker's TV commercial on air. And then it's just supporting some of our new things, as well, I know Milk-Bone. But Richard is also right that the support on advertising generally has a residual impact, but we think it's important.

Steven Oakland - President, Coffee and Foodservice

Analyst

Sure. And hi, Eric, Steve Oakland; I would say there's a number of factors in the Coffee business right now that are all going right, but it would be hard not to say some of the marketing materials, especially on the Dunkin' K-Cup launch. We've got awareness out very, very quickly on that. So I would hope that the Dunkin' media has been very helpful.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then just as my second question, a follow-up more on the cash flow side of things, free cash flow very, very strong and your debt has come down pretty quickly. I guess, Richard, as you kind of think about that cash and returning it to shareholders, is there any, I guess, adjustment in terms of the debt paydown versus buyback and kind of balancing those two opportunities? Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'll start on that and then I'll let Mark finish up. But we look at using cash in a variety of ways. Our first choice is to look at new acquisitions, because we think that builds the business for the long term, but share buybacks is still part of our plan over time. We still think our company is a great investment. And with the better cash flow that we have, it gives us a little bit of better ability to do that sooner rather than later. But no announcements at this point. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Eric, it's Mark. I think – basically agree with Richard. We've been pretty adamant in the last year or so as we – or last half year, I guess, as we came out of the transaction with the speeding up of the paydown and the fact that we did around three times, I think, we're at the level that we're comfortable with, three times the leverage. So we'll hit that at the end of next year. So that just will sped up anything in terms of whether it's acquisition, buyback or other uses of the cash

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. That's all. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Next will be Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, I have two questions on Pet. And Barry, not to throw you into the fire and I realize it's early, but are you expecting to make any meaningful changes to the strategy for the business overall? Because I think it's safe to say, at least from an outsider's perspective, growth has been disappointing. Your management has talked recently about reducing prices in Kibbles 'n Bits but mainstream dog or dry dog is, I guess, what, 28% of the portfolio? So I'm just not sure how discounting one brand is enough. It just feels – I guess, again, from one outsider's perspective, like bigger changes across the board need to be made to hit your numbers.

Barry C. Dunaway - Chief Administrative Officer

Analyst

Well, from a strategic perspective, I would say no fundamental changes in strategy. We think the snacks business really is the key driver of the Pet Food business, both in terms of sales and profits. That's where we will continue to invest and innovate. From a dry dog perspective, clearly we're looking at what the trends are in mass premium, and we're going to step back and understand what we need to do to compete there. Similar to all our other categories that we participate in, we feel we should have a presence in every segment. We're watching the mass premium and we'll figure out what our strategy should be there long term. But I would say no fundamental shifts in the strategy. This is about driving the business long term and it is about snacks. Dave, would you add anything to that?

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Are you guys there?

Barry C. Dunaway - Chief Administrative Officer

Analyst

Yeah, that was...

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. So I guess my second question is... Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: This is Richard. Let me just add to that...

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Sure. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: ...because we're still very excited about the Pet business. I mean, this is – it's a great business and any acquisition we've ever made historically, there's always a hiccup. I've never had an acquisition where one of the – all the cylinders fire 100%, but we are – three-quarters of this business is doing very well. And so we'll figure out the mainstream pet soon enough, but the other businesses are right in line where we'd like them to be. And so we're still very confident and very excited about the Pet business.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. I mean, I guess it's different when Godzilla hiccups versus when a gecko hiccups. This is Godzilla for you guys. It's a very big business. But I'll move on to my next question. You've highlighted the challenges faced by Kibbles 'n Bits, right? As we look at Nielsen data sales for the brand, they've really been in steady decline for years, and I realize the rate of erosion has accelerated versus a year ago but it's similar to what it's been each of the last eight, nine months, at least in Nielsen again. So I guess I'm not sure why the weakness this quarter was such a surprise to you.

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

Yeah, this is Dave West. Let me take that question. We did see a heightening competitive activity in the marketplace in the quarter in the form of price side and weight changes in bonus bags. We have corn and soybean meal continue to be trading at relative lows. And what we have seen is that some of that favorability and commodity was reinvested in the marketplace. I think on a year-to-date basis, we would – our gross margins in the mainstream pet food business are actually up. So not all of the commodity favorability has been passed through from our perspective. And we're using – part of our goal on the way in when we set our plans for this fiscal would've been prior to the acquisition of Big Heart by JMS. So we executed those plans. You will see us become a bit more aggressive now as we come in to the latter part of the year and the early part of next year to respond to some of the bonus bag activity now they're relative price and size. But I think overall, it was a little bit more – it was more down than we would have expected it to be, but the margin structure of the business is still pretty good, and there's a – fundamentally, there's a consumer who is going to continue to look at value in the marketplace, but there are other consumers who are looking for other benefits and we will go meet those other benefits in a different way. It won't be a price lever. So I think Barry's point was we see other segments emerging. We're very pleased with our premium dog food business in this pet specialty channel and then the independent pet channels, but we are not happy where we are en masse.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next will be Chris Growe with Stifel. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi, good morning. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Two questions for you, if I could. First on coffee. If we look at the coffee business, and I'm looking at, again, at some IRI and Nielsen data just showing coffee excluding the Dunkin' K-Cups. Overall, coffee has been a bit weak and I think you did cite some weakness on the Folgers K-Cup side, that I think is in part the issue. I just want to get a sense. You've increased marketing spending, I think, behind the business. Does it require just being more promotional, or is there one piece of the business that you need to attack, if you will, to kind of firm up the non-Dunkin' K-Cup coffee business?

Steven Oakland - President, Coffee and Foodservice

Analyst

Hi, Chris, Steve Oakland. The coffee business does have a couple of big segments and if you bore into that Nielsen data, you'll see that our mainstream roast and ground business all go through a lot of change this year. Remember there's an 11% smaller canister, the promotional size, and we took a 6% price decline. So you roll those two things in and you actually see volume up. So for mainstream volume to be up when you take 11% out of the canister, we think it's a nice rebound for that business and we're hitting price points that excite, I talk about this, both the retailer and the consumer, right? You need the price point that gets the retailer excited about merchandising it. So that piece of business is much healthier than it's been in a while. So then you take our Dunkin' K-Cup business and it's fair to say that that business has just come out of the gates on fire. We continue to see good momentum there. So the Dunkin' K-Cup business is very strong. And, although small, Bustelo is starting to move our share a little bit, right? It's starting to get big enough that that business is material. Now the Dunkin' bag business has been a struggle early on in the year. And I would say that we've seen price compression in premium that we've never seen before. Part of that is driven by green and I think part of that is driven by strategy of the competitive set. And so the good news is that the pricing we have in the market we've seen today somewhat turned that around and we expect that business as green helps us to get even better. And frankly, the legacy K-Cup business or the Folgers K-cup business is performing, I would argue, how the K-Cup category. If you take two premium brands out, you take us and the other major premium brand out of the K-Cup business, it's not been that healthy of a category. And so the opportunity for us is to continue the momentum on the Dunkin' business and to fix our K-Cup business and we are committed – I think that's an important statement – to growing our whole K-Cup portfolio over time. Dunkin' has given us a little bit of a tailwind there – a lot of tailwind right there, but the challenge for us is to get our legacy K-Cup business back on track. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Is that a sharper price point then, Steve? Just to go a little further on that, is that part of the key at this point, given the proliferation of brands across the shelf?

Steven Oakland - President, Coffee and Foodservice

Analyst

Yeah, there's no question. You will see mainstream K-Cups will be much more price competitive across I would – it's hard to say what our competitors will do. But, we will be following that trend, and some of that pricing is actually in the market as we speak. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Steve, I would also maybe add to that, that the retailers right now are kind of resetting the categories because, I think, they've all agreed there's been too many SKUs there. And we have some very, very good SKUs that, I think, as they do resets, we'll end up with a better position over time.

Steven Oakland - President, Coffee and Foodservice

Analyst

Yeah, it'll be classic category management, right? With all of that growth, I think everybody just threw SKUs at it and threw space at it. And now you'll see classic category management. How many hazelnuts do you need? I mean, you can go in some sections and there's 13 hazelnuts. So I think those things will work their way out. But we have some real work to do on our K-Cup business. The consumers told us they want them and so we have to win there. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. And just a quick follow-up on the pet food side. You've been giving sales for that business in that $2.3 billion range. And given some of the pressure here in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, it seems like we're running into that $2.2 billion range. Have you given that estimate for sales for pet food for the year? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Chris, this is Mark. Obviously, if you take where we ended this quarter and probably somewhat similar in Q4 and take that off, I think you're going to get down more in that $2.2 billion range. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next is David Driscoll with Citigroup.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Hi, David.

Aaron Broholm - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

So two questions. The first one, Mark, is for you. The 10% growth guidance in fiscal 2017 is against the $5.84 to $5.94 guidance, is that correct? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: No, it's against the $5.70 to the $5.80. The milk gain – the gain, David, is a one time. What we're not excluding, of course, is the contribution, the first eight months of milk, which is in that $5.70 to $5.80. So we'll grow off that but we're not going to grow off the milk gain included.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Yeah. No, I totally understand that one-time gains are odd but I thought it was odd that you put it in the number to begin with. But thanks for clearing that up. You did not mention last week the fiscal 2018 guidance of 10% plus growth that you outlined when you bought Big Heart. Is that still an expectation of the company? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. Going back to your first point, I would like to clarify why we included it because I think it's important everyone understands on the call. We have historically put the expectations on our businesses, both on the positive and the negative. They're responses for the brands so that's why over time we've included amortization and impairment. At the same time, the brand benefits if we're able to generate a gain on a sale of a brand that no longer fits the portfolio, we felt it's just as appropriate to run that through. So while you guys may exclude that, clearly that's the reason we leave it in.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, but way more important, fiscal 2018, 10% plus growth is still your expectation? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Yeah, fine. Thank you. And then final question for me just on Natural Balance. I think you guys said that the growth in the third quarter for your specialty business, which I'm going to assume is mostly Natural Balance – I know there's another brand there, but I think it's mostly Natural Balance – was high single digits. I think on the last call, you had said that the growth in Natural Balance was something like mid-teens or high teens. So if those statements are true, is there a bit of a deceleration in growth right there. Number one, is that true? And then number two, kind of how do you see the growth for that business over the longer course of time, because it seems there's some fair amount of volatility here. I mean, it's good news, but it's a question of what landscape are we in, high single digits or mid-teens.

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

Natural Balance, David – this is Dave West. Natural Balance was up double digits in the quarter. We have the Nature's Recipe brand, which is more of a gateway brand in pet specialty as people cross over from mass. That brand was not up as much so that goes into that premium measurement that we give you. So I think overall we're very happy with where we are in the Natural Balance expansion with the PetSmart. We continue to be pleased across the channel and across the two major pet specialty retailers, but also with distribution gains that we're getting in other independent and other parts of the channel. So pleased with where we are. As we go forward, we haven't given a projection with respect to growth on a forward basis, and I would not want to do that, since my competitors out there probably aren't going to give me their growth projections either, so I think I'll pass.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

All right. I still appreciate the comments on the brand. Thanks, guys. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next is Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hey, good morning, folks. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Hi, Jason. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co.: I hope all is well. Good seeing you last week. I wanted to pick up where Dave left off because I, too, was struck by premium only growing high single digits in the context of all the PetSmart distribution growth. So are we overestimating how much PetSmart distribution on the Balance product has contributed, or is the business sort of kind of flattish maybe even down excluding the distribution?

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

Yeah, I think one of the things that you have to understand is the measurement of how incremental truly is that distribution. So is that incremental to the retailers as we expand? Is it incremental to the category? What are the cannibalization rates? So we had an assumption on the way in of what that business would be. Again, Natural Balance is not the only brand in that measurement when we talk about premiums. So we have other businesses that are sold in the premium intended channels, and they are not growing as rapidly. So I'm pleased with where we are with Natural Balance. I think we've done a very good job of expanding the footprint this year. We have our first national ad campaign on the business. We've launched into a higher protein offering in the brand and we've gotten good shelf space in the major retailer PetSmart, and kept our relationships with Petco and the independents at the same time. So I think we're in good shape. We've got double digit growth on the brand and I'm not going to apologize for double digit growth. I think that's pretty good and it's kind of within the range of acceptable for us right now. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co.: No, I hear you. Double digit growth is always good. But I'm still not sure I'm tracking. If we excluded the PetSmart distribution gain on Natural Balance, is your premium portfolio growing?

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

Again, I'm not trying to be difficult, but I'm not going to answer the question because you can't assume that the entire set of distribution is 100% incremental. The hope would be that any time you add distribution, it's 100% incremental but that's just not the reality of it. There's always cannibalization and consumers are going to find their way as they see distribution in new places. So I'm not going to get into disclosing the incrementality or the switching behavior of consumers. That's something that we are measuring where we have new distribution and it's also something that we are tracking very, very closely and the rest of the channel where we have had distribution for a long period of time. I mean, those are conversations that we'll have with all of the retailers in the channel and make sure we're supporting the brand the right way. And like we said, we're happy with where we are. And you build distribution, you build awareness and you see with how consumers are trying and are they new to the category, are they new to the retailer. Those are things that we're measuring on a weekly basis. But like I said, I'm happy with where we are, but I don't think I'd give out any more information than that. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Understood. One more question and I'll pass it on. On coffee, congratulations for a phenomenal rebound this year, guys. Obviously, a contributor as you call out has been the positive price-to-cost surplus. Do you think that can sustain or are we reaching a point where equilibrium, in terms of price past during the cost relief will approach or given competitive dynamics in the category, can you actually sustain the surplus for longer than you…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Alexia J. Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Good morning, everybody. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Hi, Alexia. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Alexia J. Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hi. So two quick questions, firstly on promotional activity, we've had a number of other companies talking about how they're pruning ineffective promotions. But the sense that I'm getting is that in some of your more competitive areas, you might actually be stepping that up. So I'd just like to hear your views on directionally are you likely to see more or less promotion over the next year or so? And then I have a follow-up. Mark T. Smucker - President, Consumer and Natural Foods & Director: Well, Alexia, this is Mark Smucker. I guess I'll start. So where you see more promotional activity like baking, there's no question that that has taken place. We've seen in that particular category that the depth of promotion has not yielded growth, and actually we've seen that across multiple customers. And there are other areas where we are more focused on being more efficient in our trade spend and so over time, our goal is, as I think we've said a couple times, not to prune for the sake of pruning, but to get better at spending those dollars and putting them where they really do affect the business. Alexia J. Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Okay. And then as the follow-up, in the U.S. Retail Consumer business, you've got pockets that seem to be working quite well like Uncrustables, and then other areas you mentioned, baking, that have been weaker. How are you…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Farha Aslam with Stephens, Incorporated.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Good morning. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

First question is on your inventory reductions you saw in Jif and cat food. Is it limited to just the third quarter? Are you seeing it bleed into the fourth quarter? And is it specifically with one retailer or several retailers? Mark T. Smucker - President, Consumer and Natural Foods & Director: Hey, Farha, it's Mark again. In peanut butter, we do think it's probably limited to the third quarter. Again, the consumer takeaway on the scan data has not reflected that. So I think we feel cautiously optimistic about the next several months.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

And cat food?

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

On cat food, I think what we've seen is just that there's some shipment timing with respect to promotions and new item activity that was in year ago. We look at our market share, and on our market share in dry cat food particularly, it's as solid as it's been. And so I think you're going to have noise up and down with respect to shipment timing. But I think I feel pretty good about the Meow Mix business particularly, and where we're headed next year with respect to innovation.

Vincent C. Byrd - Vice Chairman

Analyst

Hey, Farha, this is Vince. I think you also have to remember that there's a couple major retailers that their fiscal year ends the same as our end of our third quarter, and this is not unprecedented in terms of what's occurred historically, that there might be some destocking at the end of their fiscal year. So it goes in cycles, but we would anticipate that not to be a long-term situation.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, the three drivers of your top line this year seem to be Dunkin' K-Cups, Uncrustables and Natural Balance. Each of them have benefited from channel fill and capacity expansion this year. When you look longer term into next year, would you expect these businesses to continue to be able to post growth going into next year or is there something else that will take their place in terms of growth drivers? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Hey, Farha, this is Mark Belgya. I think the expectation of those three, those are three big areas that we would continue to invest and expect to grow. Now will they be as additive as they were this year? That'll be determined. We're also, as normal courses, going to continue to introduce new products. And then I think the other one I would add to that list is Milk-Bone, just through the innovation and Barry's comments around the strength of snack and how important that is to us.

Steven Oakland - President, Coffee and Foodservice

Analyst

And Bustelo. Bustelo's got double digit growth. It's small, but double digit growth. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think that that's part of the advantage of having a broad portfolio and the size and scale that the company has, and adding another growth leg is that the innovation funnel is balanced over time and there'll be a lot of work going forward to make sure that we always have something coming down the funnel. And that we have talked with long lead customers and have good plans in place so that we constantly refresh that. But there will obviously – continue to be certain brands, Folgers, Dunkin', Milk-Bone, Jif, et cetera that we're going to focus that innovation against because they have the brands that have the shoulders to take that kind of innovation. But I think there'll always be something in the funnel on a forward basis, and that's just part of having the resources that the company has.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi there. I think Farha kind of asked my question I had. But if you think about the mathematics for next year to get to the 10% EPS growth, if I strip out the benefit of the synergies and the dilution, I think I'm getting to kind of a flattish EPS growth for the base business. And you can check my math on that if you like, but – and I think that in a normal year I would call that conservative, but there are tougher comparisons in fiscal 2017. And I appreciate the comments to grow Natural Balance and Dunkin' K-Cups and Uncrustables, but I think we've all been in that situation where what had been a great launch in the first year ends up being a tougher comp in the second year. So I guess, is there something you could tell me a little bit more about what's going to drive the growth in those businesses while maintaining kind of the core at a flattish basis? Is it distribution? Is it advertising? What is it that's going to keep those growing? Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: This is Richard. And Dave mentioned it also, just the fact that we have a much broader portfolio than we've ever had before. We've got more initiatives in place and more new product initiatives in place than we've ever had before. We also have – we still want to drive our share of market for each of our existing brands. And the fact that our go-to-market strategy and the sales and marketing teams that we put together are much more robust than we've ever had before. So we would expect basically to pull each one of those levers, and no one is going to drive the growth. But if you combine them all together, if we can get a little bit out of each one which is our plan, we're going to see reasonable growth. Now we're in categories that we think resonate well with the consumer today, and so we think that we're going to have some reasonable baseline growth in addition with new product growth. But it's a challenged market out there, but we think we're well positioned and probably better positioned than most CPG companies to see that growth.

Steven Oakland - President, Coffee and Foodservice

Analyst

And Richard, if I can comment, this is Steve. I'll go on the Coffee business. If we look at the results that we're posting this year, we've got strong momentum on our base business. And I went through some of these earlier, we think that from what we can see should maintain – we think there's some opportunity. If you remember, our first quarter wasn't as strong as the back nine months has been. We think that the premium green – we don't usually get into this, but different streams of green come in at different times of the year. So we think there's going to be some tailwind for our Dunkin' business in next year and we have to make that grow. Our Dunkin' business has the opportunity to get its momentum back underneath it. And what we talked about on Folgers K-Cups. So we don't think the powder has all been spent on the coffee business. We think there's some opportunities to repeat what we've done. The largest retailer in the country did not take Dunkin' K-Cups out of the gate. They're there now, so that will be a little bit of a tailwind. So we feel good about the coffee segment, even following the kind of numbers that we've shown you this year so... Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Can I ask a follow up to Mark Belgya? Is my math just about right, Mark, that if I drop all those synergies to the bottom line and then take out the dilution from canned milk, it kind of implies like a core EPS, maybe up 1% or something like that? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah, that would be about right. I think you're probably using roughly $100 million for the synergy number which is about, I don't know, $0.55, $0.60 probably. That sounds about right. Rob, the only other thing I would add is right now where we're at in our planning process and our synergy recognition, we feel comfortable with $100 million incremental for 2017. But I think just on the base business, from a cost and budgeting spend, again while we've not done some of the aggressive things that some of our peers have done, we're still putting just pressure on budget management just through normal course. So whether you call those synergies or not, I think that recognizing what you just suggested in terms of base growth, we just got to continue to try to push costs from a budget perspective. So we're in the throes of doing that now, and hopefully that'll contribute as well for 2017. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Right thing to do. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next is Jonathan Feeney with Athlos Research.

Mark E. Williams - Athlos Research

Analyst

Good morning, this is Mark Williams on for Jon. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Mark E. Williams - Athlos Research

Analyst

My question was on the synergies. I'm sorry if I missed this, but what's the driving the early delivery of the synergies, and is it related in any way to perhaps the underperformance of the business?

Vincent C. Byrd - Vice Chairman

Analyst

This is Vince Byrd. The short answer is it is not driven by the underperformance of the business. It's two areas that we have been able to realize a little quicker than we had anticipated in the administrative and operational areas, and then also some direct materials. We made some choices about ingredients and other things that increased our synergy target from $25 to $35 million.

Mark E. Williams - Athlos Research

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks. And bigger picture on the coffee business, I was wondering what strategic options the company may have explored in the event of some change in the relationship with the newly acquired business. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I assume you're talking about KGM, Keurig?

Mark E. Williams - Athlos Research

Analyst

Yes. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Acquired by JAB? I think we made the statement earlier that we're committed to grow the K-Cup business, and I think we've done that this year. I think it's a testament to that relationship so far. We are having the kind of dialogue to candidly discuss what we've got to do with the leadership of Keurig. We can't look into what will happen in the future. I mean, we need that – once that transaction closes, there's nothing they've said or done to-date that would suggest that we won't work together on those opportunities. But we have to be positioned to grow that business. I mean, the consumer has spoken, they want K-Cups. And so we're committed to be there. And to-date, I think we've been with the right partner.

Mark E. Williams - Athlos Research

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next is Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Thanks. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Good morning, Matt. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks. I just wanted to try with two follow-ups on the pet business. First, you mentioned that you're considering all levers to improve performance in the mainstream dry dog business. And I know it's hard to talk prospectively about promotion, but from an innovation or brand-building standpoint, how the brand is marketed or positioned, are there any specific steps you're taking or thoughts you can share on how you might look to revitalize that? And in general terms, how are you thinking about the urgency or potential timing of taking some of those actions?

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

I think Richard mentioned it, and I think it's a good thing to always pause and think about how quickly can you turn a business where you've planned with long lead customers for nine to 12 months out, and particularly in a business that tends to be everyday low priced and not a high/low business. So it's much more base than it is promotion. It's much more difficult to move those types of businesses. And the dry dog food business in the mass channel is a business that is much more EVLT and planned with some big long lead customers. So we are looking at all levers. So we're looking at pricing, we're looking at product packaging and we're looking at other opportunities to innovate in the business, not just in the Kibbles 'n Bits brands but across our entire mass dog food business. So we're looking at all the levers. I think in the short term, the "easiest" lever to pull is always price and promotion. It's not generally the smartest one to pull because when you talk about poor trade spend and poor ROI, the trade spend that's deployed on a short-term basis generally doesn't have great ROI because you don't get the kind of merchandising or lift forward that you would expect. So I think we've looked at all of those things. As I mentioned, from a profitability standpoint, when we had our investor day, the areas of focus for growth for the pet business were around pet snacks, dog snacks and cat snacks, around the premium business and particularly Natural Balance and the expansion of Natural Balance. And then also focused on our cat business, our Meow Mix business, which is our largest brand in the pet portfolio, and innovation that we have coming on that…

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

We're tracking our velocity on a weekly basis. We are also doing consumer research to track trial and repeaters. So we're tracking what you would expect in any normal launch. We're looking at source of volume. We're looking at incrementality and incrementality to the category, incrementality to the brands. So we're looking at all of those things and we evaluate it weekly. I'm not going to get into the specific numbers with you. We're pleased with where we are. Petco and PetSmart and the pet specialty channel, in general, has been a little slower this year overall, and that's obviously affected not only probably our business but the category growth rates in general. But as I said, I'm pleased with where we are with the business. We've gotten the kind of launch support that we needed, and we've also been able to continue to get support from the retailers who we've had distribution with for a long time. So pleased with it overall. When you see market share, it's not all inclusive. We have better visibility into it. But as stated, I'm not prepared to share. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Understood. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Akshay Jagdale with Jeffries.

Lubi Kutua - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Good morning. This is Lubi filling in for Akshay. I wanted to ask a question on your advertising spending. So you guys have increased advertising spending across a number of your businesses this year, and I think some of that will carry into next year. So can you just talk a little bit about what your internal analytics are telling you about the effectiveness or returns on those programs? So are you generally encouraged by what you're seeing, and then maybe if you could just a little bit on these advertising mix, so digital versus traditional media, et cetera, that would be helpful. Thank you.

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

Let me take a kick at that one. This is Dave West. I'll start on pet because we are up significantly year-on-year, particularly in the third quarter when you look at our segment profit in the third quarter. We're supporting the Milk-Bone brand, we're supporting Meow Mix, Irresistibles cat snacks and we're also support the Natural Balance brand as we expanded our distribution footprint. I think those three initiatives are really against trial and awareness and building. So the ROI on them initially is tough to measure because you're trying to get to trial and repeat. So I'm not sure that the economic effectiveness of measuring it in the first quarter at the end of the first six months that it's in. The same is going to be true on Dunkin' K-Cups and Jif peanut butter bars and a number of the other things where we're going to advertise new items. It's part of launching a new item in a quality way is that you try to stack your marketing so that you get merchandising, as well as an attractive price point plus consumer awareness. So a lot of the marking that you're seeing from us is geared towards that across the portfolio. And then the other area where I think it's more difficult for the industry, in general, to measure is in investment in digital. And we're trying to make sure that we invest in first party data and first party relationships with consumers. We want to reach them wherever they are and we want to make sure that we're on their path to purchase. So whether it's pre-shop or in-store as they're making decisions, we are focused on building a digital network and a digital ecosystem that reaches them there. So there's some infrastructure building there as well.…

Lubi Kutua - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Thank you. That's very helpful. And then apologies if you touched on this already, and I know you're not providing specific guidance for 2017 just yet. But can you just talk maybe high level about how you're thinking about cash allocation for fiscal 2017? Because obviously, cash flow generation remains strong. So just some thoughts on that would be helpful. Thank you. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes, this is Mark Belgya. I think it is pretty consistent with what we said last week at CAGNY. I don't see any significant change. So if you just think of it in terms of round numbers of about $1 billion in free cash flow, about a quarter of that is going to go to dividends. We're going to target about $400 million to $500 million in debt repayment, and then embedded in that $1 billion of free cash flow is about, call it, $250 million of CapEx. So I think we'll see that. The only other thing we would bring into that, as we mentioned earlier, is just where share repurchases would fall into that. Now that may cause us to borrow a bit to do such, but I think generally speaking, I would just hold to our cash deployment model we've talked about, really, since the acquisition was announced a year ago.

Lubi Kutua - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Bryan Carlson with Tudor Investment Corporation.

Bryan Keith Carlson - Tudor Investment Corp.

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Can you hear me okay? Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Bryan, we can.

Bryan Keith Carlson - Tudor Investment Corp.

Analyst

I just wanted to ask, in your slides, you had outlined a couple of factors that would be sort of headwinds heading into 2017. One of those was FX and the other was the milk divestiture. I just wonder if you can give us some sense of what the incremental drag from the divestiture of the milk is, and at current rates, FX is an additional, I don't know, $0.05, $0.06, $0.07 of EPS headwind? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. So, Bryan, we'll get into this in a little bit more in our fourth quarter earnings call, but in terms of the milk, that's probably, I'd say, a $0.10 to $0.15 impact of contribution. Again, just so everyone is clear, that's the milk contribution we're losing. It has nothing to do with the gain of $0.14 we recognized, but roughly that. FX, we're still kind of working through that, but that's going to still be a pretty significant impact. I mean, we're thinking that's well over $20 million next year. If you look at what the exchange rate has done, even if you sort of averaged in this year, it's fallen well below $0.70 for a while. So I would guess it's at least $20 million, probably even north of that.

Bryan Keith Carlson - Tudor Investment Corp.

Analyst

Okay. And everything else I had has been answered already. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Rob Dickerson with Consumer Edge Research.

Rob Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Thank you very much. Good morning. Sorry, just a couple of quick questions, I guess first, more broadly, this has been touched on a little bit. I just want a bit more clarification. So the marketing spend obviously was up and Consumer volumes still pressured. Pets coming in below planned in year one. So if we think about fiscal 2017 and the incremental cost synergies, how should we also think about a potential for incremental needs of reinvestment to support the brands? That's one. And then, two, how should we be thinking about the three to four-year growth targets you set out on a segment basis top line back in October? Thanks. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: So to the latter point, I don't think there's any significant changes in the growth rate assumptions that we laid out by the business units that ultimately got us to the 4% to 5% overall company rate. I think we spend probably enough time thinking about how we think we're going to deliver those, so our expectations by that time period, we'll figure the dry dog out and we'll be where we are. In terms of the dollar investment and, guys, jump in here, but we would continue to invest as we were. I think it was said earlier on our call, our marketing spend, while it's up significantly, it, quite candidly, is returning to more historical levels. So we don't see that, at least year-over-year, as another significant incremental jump in marketing as we would consider this a pretty good run rate. So I don't think you've got to be too concerned about that being a big headwind going into it. And again, we are kind of moving through our planning process for 2017, but the expectations is for all the things you've heard today, where we're trying to build a business, we would expect to see some benefits out of that and trying to hit sort of our normal growth rate for those business units.

Rob Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just a quick follow-up, in terms of underperforming brands and potential for divestments that we saw in the canned milk business, how has your perspective on further divestment changed? Is it the same? Are you actively looking at your baking business or oils, what have you? And I just ask because obviously there's been some longer-term pressure in some of these brands. And obviously, they generate some cash flow. But for thinking price/mix benefit and growth potential going forward, and potential benefit off the accelerated de-leverage, if you do divest those, why not divest them? Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, Rob, you just listed all the criteria that we look at continually in terms of evaluating our portfolio. So those are things that we do look at. We look at our portfolio on a regular basis. We actually think, for the most part, we have a good portfolio right now, and it doesn't mean we're not going to look at something to divest a small brand here or there, but I don't see anything in the future in the next year or so. Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Rob, this is Mark Belgya. I guess, maybe one thing that I would point to that and actually, I think, ties into a question – I can't recall who asked it earlier and a little bit to the question that was just asked in terms of growth rates by business units. But one thing I would say that we have done is our portfolio, just number of brands have expanded. We continue to think about what roles our brands play. So where in the past, I don't want to say this is not a categorical statement that everything was expected to grow evenly, but I do think we are setting different expectations on the brands, as is somewhat indicated by the growth rates that we've put for the four business units. So I think that will just continue, the maturation of how we look at businesses. And if it makes sense over time, if there are brands that fall out of favor, I think through that process, it'll surface. But I agree with Richard. I think we feel pretty good about what we have. We have some areas to work on. But for now, they're fairly positive cash generating businesses that would be a little tough to, quite honestly, would fill the dilution if we sold them.

Rob Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Fair enough. Thanks so much. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Next will be John Baumgartner with Wells Fargo.

John Joseph Baumgartner - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for the question. A question for Mark Belgya, I'd like to ask in terms of this renovation you're doing with the natural ingredients across your portfolio, is there any notable drag on your margins that may be worth quantifying from the reinvestment in the food quality? Mark R. Belgya - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes. John, this is, obviously, Mark. Right now – and again, it goes a little bit back to some of the conversations we had. Right now, we're in investment mode. So when some of the products that Mark mentioned, under the Pillsbury and the Smucker's brand, we're clearly – whether it's spending with the trade or the intro in terms of the advertising, those are negatively affecting both the top line and profitability. But if you think of commentary we've said in the past, we expect over time for our innovation to be mix positive. We're looking for bigger rings in bigger margin items. So once we get through that first couple years of intro period, we would expect that the comparable products would be adding margin greater than the more traditional ones. For example, cake, we expect our simple ingredient products to be more profitable over time. Mark T. Smucker - President, Consumer and Natural Foods & Director: And this is Mark Smucker. I would just add that Smucker's Natural Fruit Spreads, Smucker's Fruit & Honey, as Mark just pointed out, Purely Simple, all of those products which have possibly slightly higher ingredient costs, we're able to command a premium for those. And the consumer, by offering variety, the consumer that wants those products will choose those products. And we've actually – because we've seen growth there, it does validate the fact that the consumer is willing to choose with their pocketbook.

John Joseph Baumgartner - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. And just a follow-up, at CAGNY, the presentation referenced, I think 10% of your fiscal 2016 net sales from products launched over the past three years. Is there a way to isolate that contribution just for the Big Heart business, and maybe where you see that going over time for Big Heart?

David J. West - President, Big Heart Pet Food and Snacks

Analyst

Yes. Actually, I think if you look at in the Big Heart business, that number we presented should actually be higher. We've done some innovation around the Milk-Bone brand, the Milk-Bone Brushing Chews, the Milo's Kitchen brand, and some innovation that we did in the Natural Meat snack segment. We've done some things with the Meow Mix brand. So pet has had more innovation, historically. And then in Pet Specialty there's a natural amount of innovation that just occurs every year. And I think it's almost an expectation for entry (79:23) to compete in the category, so Pet is probably a little bit higher than that on average.

John Joseph Baumgartner - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think I'd just add to that and in the sense that each one of our businesses does have a target in terms of innovation and what we expect their growth rate to be from innovation. And it really does depend upon each of those categories and where we think innovation really drives the category. So although like Dave, I'm not prepared to share those numbers, each one of them has a target to go for, and each general manager has an obligation to hit those targets and it's built into their bonuses and their performance. So we look at that all the time. So thanks for the question.

John Joseph Baumgartner - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Richard.

Operator

Operator

It appears there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference call back to management to conclude. Richard K. Smucker - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I want to thank everybody for being on the call today. I appreciate your questions and look forward to having a great fourth quarter and next year. So thank you very much for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to access the re-broadcast after this live call, you may do so by dialing 888-203-1112 or 719-457-0820, with a pass code of 8098493. This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you all for participating and have a nice day. All parties may now disconnect.