David Lukes
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Thank you, Matt. I'll take a few minutes to describe the results of our portfolio review process which we began discussing last quarter as well as what this means for our dispositions and capital allocation decision making going forward. As I said to you last quarter, we view each property like most investors view any investment they're making which means understanding the cash flow growth profile and the risk associated with achieving that growth, we are highly reliant on factors like location, site, and rent roll, and we are much less focused on the property MSA, the average base rent per square foot or specific retail format. These considerations can be broken down into specific qualitative and quantitative factors. On the quantitative side, we focus on the consumer within the assets specific trade area to measure four factors: number one, the spending power; number two, the gap between the centers in place rent and market rent; number three, the number of trips that consumers make to the center to measure its ability to attract convenience type tenants; and number four, the density of the asset or the SAR to measure site efficiency. On the qualitative side, we gauge the attractiveness of the intersection on which the asset is located. The assets visibility, the layout of the center, and of course the properties merchandise mix, which is an enormous factor in determining the assets consumer drawing power. Assets that screen well on these qualitative and quantitative aspects are those that are candidates for being part of the DDR portfolio over the long-term. With the assessments now complete, we can much better understand how the portfolio fits into the three buckets. We discussed in the first quarter call durable, growth and redevelopment. We believe roughly 66% of our NOI falls into the durable category which we see as assets with stable cash flows but more modest upside. These assets include our portfolio of ground leases and single-tenant assets, a wide range of more convenience oriented properties and perhaps the largest group, those assets that represent dominant locations and that offer very low occupancy cost ratios to their tenants. Our dispositions fall almost entirely into this durable category with a very few exceptions, we are selling them not because we believe they're risky but because of our de-leveraging goal. We will however use the de-leveraging process to sell lower growth rate assets and improve the impact of the higher growth assets we intend to keep. Roughly a quarter of the NOI fits into the growth category. These are properties that we believe have some financial upside because they're currently under serving their three mile trade areas that have an opportunity for profitable re-tenanting with high productivity merchants and those with recent box vacancies that we believe can be filled at an attractive mark-to-market rent. And finally, we believe about 10% of the portfolio falls into the third redevelopment bucket that we described last quarter. These assets should have the highest growth rates because they present significant densification opportunities significantly below market rents or an opportunity to optimize their overall formats. Just to make it a bit clear, how we're screening and making these decisions on assets. I'll review an example in each category. When we state that 66% of our NOI falls into the durable category, it's fair for investors to ask exactly what gives the confidence in the security of these cash flows in a challenging retail atmosphere especially in non-gateway markets. Polaris Towne Center in Columbus, Ohio, is a great case study. The Aerial photograph shows that the center has high visibility a long and simple layout and a convenient shallow parking field with multiple access points. The tenant roster includes a Kroger grocery store on one end, Lowe's and Target on the other and a strong collection of junior anchors and shops in between with well located pad buildings along the main access road, convenience, cross shopping, and visibility are the key ingredients for strong tenant sales. This is a great qualitative set up for the quantitative analysis which is primarily about rents and sales numbers and how they support the stability of the landlord's economics, so here are the numbers, Kroger's has a low-single-digit rent and an occupancy cost ratio of just 1.7% but their low rent is also flat for the next 21 years. Durable low anchor rents means economics must come from elsewhere and in this case it's the junior anchors and shops. Like several other junior anchors here, TJX has very high sales and a low 3.5% occupancy cost ratio. This sets us up for some strong shop rents which are indeed 130% higher than the junior anchors. But this high rent is also a product of shop scarcity only 20% of the center space is not anchored. This all means strong but limited shop economics. A near term OfficeMax expiration with a large mark-to-market rent opportunity even provides upside within the junior anchor category. And finally over $700,000 of NOI is coming from ground leases on single-tenant pads which carry an inherently low cap rate and tend to be stable below growth. Summing this up at 99% occupied, Polaris is a very high quality but also low growth property. Growth assets have similar qualitative factors but more financial upside. Consider Tanasbourne Town Center in Portland, Oregon, again exceptional location and visibility along with easy access and convenient site circulation, a strong anchor base of Nordstrom Rack, Target, Ulta Cosmetics, and Ross, generate strong consumer demand and traffic. You're going to note a scarcity theme with shops in our DDR presentations and this site is no different with only 20% of the GLA allocated to shops, the shop rents are 180% higher than the anchors. This property fits into our growth portfolio because we've recently executed leases to de-box and backfill a vacant Hagen, so the NOI growth here will be above average over the next year or two as occupancy rises back to 99% and new rents commence mid next year. This case study also demonstrates that DDR's high leasing volumes have been associated with good inventory in great properties made available through tenant bankruptcies. Speaking of the best real estate about 10% of our NOI comes from properties that we see as a yielding land place with greater densities in their future. A sneak preview of one such asset is Sandy Plains village just outside of Atlanta, Georgia, in Roswell. The property’s ugly appearance and anchor vacancy make it easy to overlook but surrounding demographics are strong and the site is one of the few open air and low density properties in an otherwise wealthy residential community. We have a strong movie theater with low occupancy cost many of our shops roll lease terms with no options in the next few years and the anchor vacancy is actually a dark and pain Wal-Mart that controls over 30% of the land, these are all great ingredients for redevelopment potential. Our executive team spent a day on the site a few weeks ago with our Atlanta office and we're all excited about the possibilities. Before we take questions, I want to briefly discuss our dispositions program. Previous management at DDR did an excellent job disposing of risky assets and you can see we made further progress this quarter paring back the portfolio. We're working hard on leasing. We're making progress on asset sales, our capital allocation is firmly geared towards de-leveraging and the portfolio review process has given us more clarity on our future growth. And with that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.