Paul W. Freddo
Analyst · Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thank you, Dan. Over the past 4 years, we have leased over 40 million square feet of space to high-credit, best-in-class retailers dramatically improving our portfolio of tenant mix and credit profile and contributing to significant gains in our leased rate and same-store NOI. As a result of the progress we've made, one might think there is less obvious vacancy remaining in our portfolio and there is. But strong platforms don't need obvious vacancy to produce continued gains. When you review our embedded organic growth, driven by an improved leased rate across the portfolio, continued improvement in deal spreads, a higher retention rate, our ability to purposely create vacancy through downsizings and lease terminations and the advantageous supply and demand dynamic, the story gets even better. These trends and market conditions, when combined with our platform, will result in occupancy gains and organic growth similar to the stellar numbers that we have achieved over the past few years. And with the continued improvement in asset quality and the integration of recent acquisitions, these results may exceed prior performance. Starting with our embedded growth, as discussed on prior calls, our 94.4% leased rate is a forward-looking metric. Within this 94.4% is 1.2 million square feet of currently signed but not yet rent-paying leases, which doesn't include renewals or new leases for currently occupied spaces that will vacate in the future. So based on current leasing velocity, we are very optimistic about our ability to add to our leased rate. Over the past few years, we increased our leased rate by 160 basis points and fully expect to achieve a comparable increase over the next few years. Occupancy gains through lease-up is the most obvious opportunity for future organic growth, and importantly, we will achieve this improvement in leased rate through an equal amount of lease-up in our big box and shop space. If the economy continues to grow as projected, it may even be possible to exceed expectations, particularly in the shop space category. Some of you have expressed concern that our box space of greater than 10,000 square feet is currently 97% leased, leaving no room for improvement in this important category. Please know that we confidently expect to achieve a leased rate of least 98.5% in this category, representing over 1 million square feet of new rent-paying space, and it is important to note that pricing power in the market resides within the 10,000 square foot plus units, which enhances the growth prospects for this portion of the portfolio. Similarly, our shop space of units less than 10,000 square feet is approximately 86% leased. We have increased the leased rate in this category by 130 basis points over the first quarter of 2012 and that gives me great confidence that we will achieve a leased rate of over 90% in this category. This million square feet of new rent-paying shop space will be a result of lease-up, fewer move-outs and the consolidation of space for a variety of aggressively growing retailers such as Shoe Carnival, Five Below, Carter's, Ulta, Tilly's, Rue21, Vitamin Shoppe and others. Deal spreads are another key component of the story. Just as we've turned the negative spreads of a few years ago to positive new deal spreads of 10.7% at 100% and 11.9% on a pro rata basis in the first quarter, we expect continued improvement in new deal spreads. Recapturing and marking historic leases to today's growing market ramp levels clearly provides yet another opportunity for continued organic growth. While new deal spreads continued to improve, so do our renewal spreads. This was evidenced by our first quarter results where we achieved renewal spreads of 7% at 100%, and again, even better on a pro rata basis at 7.5%. This marks our highest renewal spread in over 4 years and is a great indicator of future rent per square foot growth. With limited existing quality space available, retailers are more concerned about losing a store than we are about getting a space back and retailers are unwilling to sacrifice long-term sales growth for short-term savings by relocating based on deal economics alone. Sales and margin will always drive a good merchant's decision, not real estate economics. In addition to the improving renewal spreads, we're projecting a year-end retention rate of 90%, up from the low 80%s of just a few years ago. As renewals require no downtime or CapEx, this stabilized cash flow set the basis for growth while providing the opportunity to re-tenant where we deem appropriate. Further illustrating the confidence retailers have in their business and their unwillingness to give up quality real estate, 60% of our first quarter renewals were comprised of tenants exercising an option, which is up significantly from 40% just 3 years ago. Furthermore, 75% of our total renewals for 2013 are already complete. With this strong retention rate, we're able to take a more strategic approach to leasing by recapturing target spaces to purposely create vacancy and re-merchandise centers with higher credit best-in-class retailers. There are a variety of ways in which we're accomplishing this. First, we're pursuing termination opportunities with dark or poorly performing retailers resulting in termination fee income and re-tenanting at higher rents per square foot while creating additional traffic and strong co-tenancy for additional leasing opportunities. For example, we replaced FYE with Dick's Sporting Goods in 2 Salt Lake City location, replaced Books-A-Million with Cost Plus in Charlotte and replaced A.C. Moore and a local furniture operator with T.J. Maxx and Golfsmith in Greensboro. As the supply and demand metric continues to favor the landlord and our tenant open-to-buys continue to grow, we expect these profitable re-merchandising opportunities to accelerate. Additionally, we continue to meet regularly with retailers on downsizing opportunities, resulting in a more profitable, rightsized merchant paying a higher rent per square foot, plus the benefit of residual space, which we can mark-to-market. We are currently discussing downsizing opportunities with all 3 office products retailers and are making exciting progress in that area. While it is difficult to quantify the amount of square footage that downsizings will ultimately represent due to the ongoing re-merchandising plans of some of our tenants, we are committed to aggressively pursuing all opportunity in executing this strategy. In summary, from a growth and revenue perspective, we are very excited about all that we have accomplished including the improvement to our portfolio quality and the current leased rate, but we are far from finished. Our operating platform, coupled with the various growth prospects I've outlined, collectively enhance our ability to deliver organic growth, similar to the impressive numbers delivered over the past few years. Given our strategic initiatives and a more positive macro environment, there is the potential to exceed. And I will now turn the call over to David.