Paul W. Freddo
Analyst · Jeffrey Donnelly with Wells Fargo
Thank you, Dan. I'll spend some time today talking about the retail environment, the strong connection between retailer and consumer and what we're hearing from retailers about holiday expectations. While we can all acknowledge that we are shadowed by an unstable macroeconomic backdrop with a future impact that is not fully understood, the supply and demand dynamic is dramatically different than in 2008. Landlords, retailers and consumers alike are better prepared, making calculated decisions and are capable of successfully navigating today's uncertain times. Furthermore, for those retailers able to take advantage of lessons learned in the past recession, today presents a compelling opportunity to gain market share, maintain and grow margins and continue to execute upon steady growth plans. We need not look any further than recent retail sales reports to confirm this trend as productivity and stores continues to outpace the macroeconomic news. At DDR, our commitment to upgrading the quality of our portfolio is translating into results; results in the form of higher average rent per square foot, new deal leasing spreads in the mid-teens and year-over-year net effective rent growth. Despite a smaller portfolio, the combination of our higher-quality shopping centers and persistent retailer demand resulted in more new leases being signed in the third quarter than in any previous quarter in the company's history. Quite simply, demand for quality real estate remains robust. In the third quarter, we signed 220 new leases for 973,000 square feet with a positive spread of 16% and 296 renewals for 1.6 million square feet with a positive spread of 6%. In total, we completed 516 deals for over 2.5 million square feet with a blended spread of 7%. As a result, our domestic leased rate is now 93.1%, a 30-basis point increase over last quarter and 110-basis point increase over the third quarter of 2010. Including Brazil, our leased rate is now 93.4%. This represents our sixth straight quarter of positive leasing spreads and reflects the continued demand we are seeing from retailers. Though we do not expect to see new lease spread levels this high every quarter due to the natural mix of deals, we do expect spreads to remain comfortably positive. It is important to note that this growth will be partially reflected in our income statement in the coming year with full annual impact showing up in 2013. I would like to briefly address Brazil's impact on operating metrics and why it is relevant to our business and important to these disclosures. Brazil represents 8% of our NOI and continues to grow. While others have exposure to emerging markets, it is likely a less significant factor and may not warrant inclusion due to the immaterial nature of the contribution. However, 8% is material and will be disclosed as such. Quite simply, when you invest in DDR, you are investing in the U.S., Puerto Rico and Brazil with Puerto Rico and Brazil accounting for almost 25% of total NOI. Turning back to domestic. With the continued evolution of the supply and demand dynamic we are experiencing in the Power Center business, it begs the question, when will development be a viable growth alternative? While retailers continue to show a willingness to pay more for the right location, they are still unwilling to take lesser space based on reduced rental rates alone. When you couple retail demand with limited new supply, the fact is simple: existing quality space is worth more. However, the increased level of demand does not necessarily translate into a rush for new ground-up development. On a risk-adjusted basis, yields on most new ground-up development projects do not yet make economic sense. So the positive leasing momentum on existing space will continue for the foreseeable future. In contrast, redevelopment continues to serve as a significant growth driver for retailers in need of new stores. As you might have seen in our recent Puerto Rico redevelopment press release, we are investing $50 million in what are some of our most productive assets and project to generate a return of over 10%. Consistent with the U.S., the demand for space on the island is robust with retailers preferring to take newly configured space, in proven quality centers, not risking their growth on untested new developments with the certainty of product and consumer traffic is left to projections and unproven operating results. The sales productivity of the assets we are reinvesting in ranges from $400 to $520 per square foot, which tells a very compelling story to prospective tenants. For the consumer, we've seen no real wage or employment growth since the recession. This has forced the consumer to manage their personal balance sheets and as seen by the continued positive same store sales results and healthy margins achieved by many retailers over the past year. Our tenants have appropriately refined merchandising and sales strategies to match the appetite and spending capability of the consumer. And while sales are one indicator of a retailer's health, the operating margin is what is most important as they pay rent with margin, not with comp store sales. And when it comes to margin, there is nothing more important than inventory level and inventory turns. Inventory level plays a critical role on a retailer's bottom line and no season is more important to the bottom line than the upcoming holiday season. It's important to note that shipping levels at the 5 largest U.S. ports are down 5% to 10% compared to 2010 levels. This shows a positive level of inventory discipline that should translate into controlled markdowns and predictable margins regardless of comp store sales. Lower inventory levels should not be viewed as retailer pessimism regarding holiday sales, but more importantly, as sensible business planning. As you recall, the reason retailers struggled in 2008 was because they had too much inventory and had to sell at deep discounts, dramatically reducing margins. Today, retailers are on a much better position to sell inventory at close to full price as they continue to manage their businesses effectively. Retailers would much rather make arrangements for last minute deliveries, or what it's often referred to as chasing inventory due to higher levels of demand, than to eat away at margins by lowering inventory turnover and selling products at deeply discounted prices. Simply put, retailers are more willing to miss a sale this holiday season than to mark it down. From what I'm also hearing from retailers, the expectations are for holiday sales to be marginally positive. Back-to-school sales are a great indicator of holiday sales, and August and September sales were up roughly 5%. Furthermore, the vast majority of prime retailers, of our prime retailers, have been increasing earnings guidance. Walmart, TJX, PetSmart, Kohl's, Bed Bath & Beyond, Ross, Dick Sporting Goods and Kroger are just a handful of our top tenants that have increased earnings guidance in 2011. As evidenced by the progress we've made in the leasing of our former Borders boxes, the retailers' need for quality locations, top line growth and their desire to grow market share will continue to be the driving force behind the demand we continue to see across our portfolio. And I will now turn the call over to David.