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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 30, 2025

$26.16

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the SiriusXM's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Hooper Stevens, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you, Hooper. You may now begin.

Hooper Stevens

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to SiriusXM's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today, we will have prepared remarks from Jennifer Witz, our Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Barry, our Chief Financial Officer. Scott Greenstein, our President and Chief Content Officer; and Wayne Thorsen, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, will join Jennifer and Tom to take your questions during the Q&A portion of this call. I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made during the call might be forward-looking statements as the term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These and all forward-looking statements are based upon management's current beliefs and expectations and necessarily depend upon assumptions, data or methods that may be incorrect or imprecise. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For more information about these risks and uncertainties, please view SiriusXM's SEC filings and today's earnings release. We advise listeners to not rely unduly on forward-looking statements and disclaim any intent or obligation to update them. As we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that today's call will include discussions about both actual results and adjusted results. All discussions of adjusted operating results exclude the effects of stock-based compensation. Additionally, we have posted a supplementary presentation to our IR website for your convenience. With that, I'll hand the call over to Jennifer.

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

Thank you, Hooper, and thank you all for joining us this morning. As we enter the final months of the year, we remain committed to enhancing the subscriber experience, growing our ad-supported offerings and finding new opportunities to drive efficiencies and leverage our portfolio strengths. In the third quarter, we made good progress in each of these areas, delivering solid financial results and positive early indicators of our focused approach. With this backdrop, we are increasing our full year 2025 guidance by $25 million across revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow. We are confident improvements in our business will drive continued growth in free cash flow towards our target of $1.5 billion by 2027 and beyond. In addition, we are actively exploring ways to unlock the long-term strategic value of our spectrum assets. We're seeing solid momentum in our new SiriusXM acquisition initiatives with ongoing expansion of our 3-year automotive dealer subscription program and our Podcasts+ offering as well as continued strength in retention as we provide more value to our subscribers. Subscribers for Q3 were in line with our expectations, with self-pay net adds down versus last year, almost entirely due to our pullback on streaming marketing spend. Enhancing the subscriber experience begins with programming. We are consistently providing our core audience with new, relevant and engaging content and leveraging our unique platform and long-standing relationships to do even more with the voices driving culture today. Within music, the heart of our service, we hosted a variety of live events alongside channel launches. This included the return of Channel 13 to celebrate Taylor Swift's new album, a pop-up channel and small stage concert with Ed Sheeran and an exclusive Metallica event to launch their new full-time channel, Maximum Metallica. The latter was announced with a special appearance on Howard…

Thomas Barry

Analyst

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, we executed with strong discipline, sustaining healthy margins, delivering operating efficiencies and allocating capital to initiatives with clear returns. At the same time, we leaned into new content and distribution initiatives that reinforce our long-term competitive position. Looking at the financial results for the quarter. Total revenue for the third quarter was $2.16 billion, essentially flat year-over-year, down less than 1%. Subscriber revenue declined by $16 million to $1.63 billion, while advertising revenue grew by $5 million to $455 million. Total cash operating expenses were $1.48 billion, also flat compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $676 million, down 2% year-over-year with a 31% margin. Net income for the quarter was $297 million and free cash flow was $257 million, up from $93 million in the third quarter of 2024. The year-over-year improvement in free cash flow was primarily driven by the absence of Liberty Media transaction-related costs recorded in the prior year period as well as lower cash taxes paid and reduced capital expenditures. Turning to the segments. SiriusXM total revenue finished the quarter at $1.61 billion, down 1% year-over-year, primarily driven by lower subscriber revenue due to a modest decline in the average subscriber base. Advertising revenue remained steady, down $2 million to $39 million for the quarter. Average revenue per user rose slightly to $15.19 from $15.16 in the prior year period, benefiting from the March rate increase. Segment gross profit was $958 million, down 1% year-over-year with a gross margin of 59%, a 1 point decline from the prior year. Churn remained healthy in the third quarter at 1.6%, improving slightly year-over-year, driven by declines in vehicle-related, nonpay and voluntary churn. Self-pay net adds were negative 40,000, driven by consistently low churn, higher trial…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Laszczyk

Analyst

First, Jennifer, subscriber net adds continue to improve here in the third quarter. I know we've had some onetime impacts coming in and out of focus this year. You've had to cancel some streaming-only churn. I think Tom called out some factors in the fourth quarter to consider. But maybe I was curious if you could just spend some time talking about where we stand on each of these factors, just moving parts as we close out the year and as we begin to look into 2026 on the net add front and as some of the underlying momentum in the business might start to come through?

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Stephen. So as we came into the year, we said that we expected self-pay net adds to be better year-over-year, but for a few specific items. Mostly that's because of the streaming reduction as a result of the pullback in the marketing spend there. And the performance this year so far and our expectations for the fourth quarter has been consistent with our thoughts coming into the year. So we discussed on our last call that we would expect about a 300,000 net add reduction because of the streaming adjustment. And the biggest quarters of impact for that are the first quarter and then the fourth quarter of this year in terms of the year-over-year impacts. But we still expect our in-car business to be better year-over-year as a result of many of these new acquisition programs that we've been talking about, including the 3-year automotive dealer subscriptions, better used car data, EV implementations, and we continue to see nice movement there. So as we look at next year, of course, we'll provide better indications on the fourth quarter call, but a number of positives that we continue to believe that we'll see contributions from these new acquisition initiatives. We would be through the bulk, obviously, of the streaming net add reduction this year. And we really believe we're going to see continued progress on -- as a result of the expanded pricing and packaging we put in place, better personalized and content-led marketing, leveraging 360L, other third-party data to really get the right content in front of the right customers. And we talked a little bit about it in our prepared remarks, but continuous service should remove friction with our current subscribers transferring vehicles, and we've got future opportunities in bundles and partnerships. So I'd say the one thing we're watching closely for next year is just what happens with auto sales in general, just because of the ever-evolving tariff situation and potential impacts if that were to affect consumer demand. But otherwise, we feel good about the trends.

Stephen Laszczyk

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And then on the ARPU side, I was curious if you could talk a little bit more about the receptivity you're seeing across the base to the rate increases earlier this year and then also to the pricing and packaging changes you made on the SXM side earlier in the year as well. I think we've seen ARPU trends improve throughout the year. Just curious how much more opportunity you see for them to continue to improve as you look into 4Q, maybe into 2026 as well as we think about the balance of rate increases versus maybe some SiriusXM Play subs coming into the base in a more meaningful way over the next couple of quarters?

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

Yes. Again, we're on track on ARPU in terms of better year-over-year comparisons, as we said, as we go throughout this year. And yes, we've talked about introducing lower-priced packages like our $9.99 music only, and add ads on top of that and our low cost of ads or Play subscription. And we think what we're seeing in both of those cases is that they are great headline prices, but that customers are typically taking higher-priced packages even with those used for promotion. So we do feel good about the mix on acquisition. And I think we continue to have opportunities to add value to support future rate increases. And so I would expect that we have the opportunity to continue to improve ARPU over time. But of course, it really is about revenue maximization and balancing rate and volume.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone

Analyst

First on a follow-up on pricing. I was just wondering if we should still think about you deploying kind of an every other year philosophy? And then relatedly, how might pricing activity from peers influence those decisions around pricing near term?

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Cameron. So I think we're open to looking at rate increases on a different frequency perhaps. We had a very strong execution against the rate increase earlier this year. We've developed a good model for how we execute those by delivering more value for our subscribers ahead of those rate increases. And we expect to continue to do that along a number of factors, right, with product features, with new content, and with things like service continuity, which just make it easier to transfer vehicles. And so there's a possibility that we'll do it maybe more frequently or on a slightly -- maybe it's not exactly every other year, it's 18 months. But obviously, we're very, very watchful of the market in general. As you mentioned with other services, whether they be audio or video, we're seeing pretty consistent rate increases there. And I think that signals both an opportunity because we look well priced, but also we need to be monitoring for potential subscription fatigue. We haven't seen any of that yet. But of course, those factors are sort of the backdrop for how we'll make the decisions going forward.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone

Analyst

That's helpful. And then on advertising, some good sequential improvement in ad trends this quarter. You highlighted the strength of podcasting. I was wondering if you could help provide any help in terms of thinking how podcasting has increased as a share of the overall ad business. And as part of that, just helping us frame the opportunity maybe for that outperformance to come through in total ad growth over the next few years.

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

Our podcasting performance has been very strong. Again, another quarter where ad revenue in podcasting was up about 50%. And we're really pleased with the investments we've made here and the innovations that we've launched, including things like Creator Connect to sell across audio, video and social. So it is representing a larger portion of our overall ad revenue, and we would expect that to continue. But we do have opportunities to improve on the streaming side and on the satellite side. As we bring things like Tom mentioned in the prepared remarks, being able to sell better across our platforms, and we're just launching now a unified buying process for salespeople and marketers so that it's much easier to buy across all three platforms. So we'd expect to see some tailwinds there. And also, as we launch ad replacement in the car, we've been talking about this for quite a while, but we are going to start that evolution early next year, and that will continue to progress to allow us really as the only provider of the ability to execute against addressable inventory in the car. So there are opportunities for us to continue to expand across the other aspects of our portfolio, but we're really pleased with where we are in podcasting and expect to see continued tailwinds there.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Kutgun Maral with Evercore ISI.

Kutgun Maral

Analyst

I wanted to ask about spectrum and see if there's any more you could share on how you're viewing the portfolio and scope for monetization. If you just take a look at recent market transactions, it certainly seems like this could be quite a significant opportunity for the company even if you take a big haircut to recent comps. And relatedly, it might be premature to ask, but how should we think about how you could look to allocate any potential proceeds, particularly since you're not too far off from your target leverage?

Wayne Thorsen

Analyst

Thanks, Kutgun. I'll take that. Just to level set, our spectrum holdings total about 35 megahertz right now of contiguous spectrum with 25 megahertz being used for our core broadcast operations and 10 megahertz of the recently acquired spectrum that are positioned either side of the 25 megahertz, and those are the WCS licenses. So you're right, that does give us a lot of flexibility to create value in multiple ways and whether that's expanding or enhancing our service or building on core strengths, in particular, in the car. It also includes opportunities for new partnerships or services built potentially in conjunction with partners. So we are evaluating multiple approaches to creating value right now, and we'll share more as our thinking and the opportunities evolve.

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

Yes. I'd just say, Kutgun, on the last part of your question about proceeds. Obviously, it's way too early to be thinking about that. But we have the usual approach in terms of capital returns, right? We want to make sure that, first and foremost, we're executing against opportunities we have to invest in the business organically with high ROI. We've been very disciplined about that. There's, of course, an ongoing evaluation of M&A opportunities. We don't believe there's anything near term that we need for the portfolio, but we continue to be open to that. And clearly, the focus right now is on delevering. And as we've said, we're consistently measuring against our long-term leverage target of low to mid-3x EBITDA and expect to get there late next year. And beyond that, of course, there's opportunities for other capital returns to shareholders, whether that's dividends or share repurchases.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Barton Crockett with Rosenblatt Securities.

Barton Crockett

Analyst · Rosenblatt Securities.

I wanted to follow up a little bit on the spectrum question and just drill in a little bit, which is part of the question was referring to the possibility of selling spectrum and the value that could come looking at comparable transactions. I was wondering if you could comment on whether selling spectrum is something that would even be considered. And if so, a little bit of color on how you could think about licensing given that your spectrum is licensed for a specific satellite radio use right now. And I think there's a lot of interest in other uses like potentially satellite connectivity to cell phones that's been in the background of some of these other transactions. Whether that specific use case is something that could be applicable to your spectrum and whether there's any licensing steps that could be taken -- maybe would be best taken in this current FCC environment, if you could comment on that.

Jennifer Witz

Analyst · Rosenblatt Securities.

Yes. Sure. Thanks, Barton. So Wayne mentioned how we're really approaching the process. And I think there's a number of different use cases. I'm not sure that really is going to involve selling spectrum. We do believe the FCC has been more open to different types of uses and transactions. But really, it's like what Wayne said, like let's find the best opportunity for our business given the strengths that we provide, particularly in automotive and perhaps there's a partnership that would let us better execute there. But that's really the main focus.

Barton Crockett

Analyst · Rosenblatt Securities.

Okay. That's helpful. And then if I could just switch to another topic on auto relationships. There's been some disclosures, I think, from automakers like GM of a desire to move to their own kind of interface versus kind of CarPlay and Android Auto. I'm just wondering in this environment where GM might be doing that and others perhaps over time. If that potentially advantages those who are economic partners of the automakers who will have greater control over the interface if they do this versus those who don't. So you guys are an economic partner, you pay them a split. Others like Spotify don't. Does that advantage you potentially in the interface?

Wayne Thorsen

Analyst · Rosenblatt Securities.

Thanks, Barton. It's Wayne, I'll take that. I think that as you probably know, over the course of the year, we've enhanced our abilities in CarPlay, which is why we're seeing some of the increased usage. So that's where a lot of our users like to consume a service. And so we want to be wherever our users are. And of course, we do partner deeply with the OEMs, and we want to be as deeply embedded as we can in their IVIs and create the best experience that they want for their consumers. And so we feel like we're really well positioned in both directions. It's a -- we've created a lot of deep relationships, both for the consumers and with both platforms and with OEMs. And so we're going to continue to develop in both directions, and we like both directions for us and for our consumers.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark Company.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst

I couldn't frame an OEM question more articulately than Barton, so I'll leave that one alone. But it's interesting on video, particularly with micro content on YouTube and other forms. It always feels to me like music video content has been undermonetized. And certainly, you have marquee content or podcast content really embracing the entire political spectrum. But how significant an opportunity is that? And how does the -- and this is probably a little too early, but how does the potential ad tech on the video side -- ad tech stack on the video side compare to what you're doing in audio? Clearly, you're a leader in audio. There's a lot of press on what just about everybody is doing on the video side these days in that regard. But it does feel like you've got a lot of room to roam in terms of monetizing on the video side to complement your audio leadership in the car.

Scott Greenstein

Analyst

Great. It's Scott. Thank you. So a couple of things. So as you pointed out, we're the #1 podcast network now in terms of reach in audio in the U.S. So that lane is vibrant and growing, and we continue to be the leader there. In video, our YouTube partners that we have on there, whether it's Unwell and Alex Cooper or SmartLess or anything else, we're seeing enormous growth there. As many of you read, you saw the Spotify announcement with Netflix and other things. With our lineup of content, there's no shortage of opportunity where we'll go in video. Right now, we like the way we're monetizing. We're flexible. We can have video behind the paywall. We can have video with YouTube or any distribution partner. And with 11 of the top 25 podcasts, it feels like we're in a good position to see what's out there, field some offers and decide what's best for the company.

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

I'd just add on to that, that I think that we are -- most of our engagement, of course, is in the car, right? And we believe we still have lots of opportunity with audio in the car. But that video is a great complement. And to the extent we can work, like Scott said, with other partners, especially where we've seen success with YouTube, it gives us a real opportunity to build complementary engagement outside of the car and even promote back to SiriusXM content in audio in the car.

Operator

Operator

At this time, our next and final question is from the line of Steve Cahall with Wells Fargo.

Omar Mejias Santiago

Analyst

This is Omar on for Steve. One quick one for me. Cost cuts have been a major opportunity for SIRI over the last couple of years. And recently, you've talked to an improving outlook for non-satellite CapEx. And obviously, you guys have hit your targets for the year. Just curious, what inning are you in for cost reductions? And where have you been able to find the most efficiency in the operating model?

Thomas Barry

Analyst

Omar, it's Tom. So just addressing that, when you look at our financials this year, we've had a lot of progress on sales and marketing and optimization, and we've worked our way through cutting back, obviously, some of the streaming, marketing and some of the other direct marketing. So we've optimized more of the marketing side this year. We've had impact on product and tech. But we are looking -- we continue to look at all our initiatives, and we're continuing to look across the company. We've had success to date. We've had also a lot of success on reducing CapEx, which we've talked about, I mean you noted earlier. So I think we're looking at across the board. We've hit our target for the year of being in excess of $200 million. And we're not stopping there. A lot of these are structural changes, but a lot of them are also ongoing projects that we continue to work through in our overall cost structure.

Jennifer Witz

Analyst

Yes. I'd just add on. We've made great progress on the cost side. But really, it's about we're doing what we set out to do when we focused our strategy last December, and we're really pleased with our progress across the board. So we've been enhancing the in-car experience, super serving our core audiences. We are driving our ad business, particularly within podcasting, but even more broader, and we're driving profitability. So ultimately, we're focused on increasing free cash flow and driving future value creation for our shareholders, and I'm confident we're on the right path.

Hooper Stevens

Analyst

Thank you, everybody, for participating today, and we look forward to speaking to you offline in next quarter. Thank you.