John Ciampaglia
Analyst · Desjardins Capital
Great. Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everybody. 2020 was obviously a breakout year for Sprott on the exchange-listed products, specifically the Physical Bullion Trusts. We had extraordinary AUM growth, which came from a combination of market appreciation and net inflows. Last year, we did $2.8 billion in net flows into this product category, which was, by far, a company record. In 2020, gold was really the star performer as investors around the world shifted to the safe-haven asset, and our gold trust led our sales at $1.7 billion. Silver was respectable last year, but our silver trust, for example, came in at about $600 million. Flows into gold ETFs were at all-time highs last year, while flows in the silver ETFs were much more modest. However, the tide has turned in silver’s favor over the last few months. We’ve seen a very sharp rebound in investor sentiment related to silver, and we are benefiting from that interest. Our year-to-date sales, after having a more moderated level in Q4 have risen quite sharply. And year to date, the trusts have generated $964 million in new flows. Of that, $905 million is in the Sprott Physical Silver Trust. And as I said, that compared to $615 million for all of last year. If we go to the next slide, talk a little bit about what’s driving this activity. We believe that silver is benefiting from its dual roles as both a monetary metal and an industrial metal. There are a number of drivers underpinning the price of silver right now and the interest. First of all, it remains very inexpensive even after last year’s 48% rise. It’s still 40% below its 2011 high, and that does appeal to many value-oriented investors. With a recovery in the global economy, prime by easy money policies that Peter referenced, there is a growing narrative about reflation as central banks, even though they are talking down inflation, the bond market sees it differently as we’re seeing signs of inflation everywhere. If you look at food prices, prices of lumber, copper, housing, et cetera. We don’t believe the CPI numbers accurately reflect the true changes of inflation coming. Second of all, after a protracted bear market and commodities that lasted almost a decade, there is starting to, there starting to be more analysts in the marketplace talking about a new commodity, super cycle forming. The bear market led to underinvestment in many years in many commodities. U.S. silver is also getting an added lift from shift in the U.S. environmental policy and the ongoing transition to the green energy revolution in electric vehicles, which consumes silver. And then lastly, social, these social media-driven investors have turned their sights on silver in the last few weeks, which is giving it an ad lift. We believe we’re well positioned to capture the additional interest in the silver segment. We do have a number of products on both the physical side and the equity side, in different mutual fund and SMA, separately managed account, offerings. And I’ll just talk a little bit about the silver market. The retail silver civil market, which comprises largely coins and bars, has been under a lot of stress over the last few weeks in response to this spike in demand. There are shortages of coins and bars, and more importantly, the premiums on them, those are the prices people have to pay over spot sliver, have really increased substantially. For example, a 1 ounce silver coin can cost you anywhere between 40% to 50% above the spot metal price. We are starting to see signs of physical tightness as well on the wholesale side of the market. It is becoming harder to source 1,000 ounce London Good Delivery bars. We are also seeing in the futures market a rare backwardation in the silver market, which has only happened a few times in the last 10 years, most recently, back in 2010 and ‘11 where the price of silver had a very large jump that year. And finally, a couple of U.S.-listed silver ETFs in the last few weeks, amended their prospectuses to disclose a potential risk related to authorized participants being unable to source sufficient silver for the creation of new shares. This obviously send concerns that there is, indeed, a shortage or potential shortage or tightness in the physical market. Fortunately, we’ve been able to source bars this year, and we acquired 31 million ounces of silver for our funds year-to-date. We do have the ability to manage the inflows into our bullion trusts, and we are not, at this time, contemplating any similar changes to our perspective. It’s obviously going to be a bumpy ride and volatile ride as we’re seeing today, but we think the prospects for silver remain quite bright. And with that, I will pass it over to Whitney.