Operator
Operator
I would now like to turn the call over to Brad Bryant Wilson, senior vice president. Please go ahead, sir.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)
Q2 2026 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 24, 2026
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Operator
Operator
I would now like to turn the call over to Brad Bryant Wilson, senior vice president. Please go ahead, sir.
Brad Bryant Wilson
Management
Good morning. Thank you for joining Selective's Second Quarter 26 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we posted our earnings press release financial supplement and investor presentation on the Investors section of selective.com. A replay of today's webcast will be available there shortly after this call. Joining me are John Joseph Marchioni, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer and Patrick Sean Brennan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They will discuss our results and take your questions. During the call, we will reference non GAAP measures used by insurance and professionals to evaluate financial and operating performance, including operating income, operating return on common equity, and adjusted book value per common share. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are available in our financial supplements on our Investor Relations page. We will also make forward looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 2000. These statements and projections about future performance are subject to risks and uncertainties we disclose in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. Now, I will turn the call over to John.
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
Thanks, Brad, and good morning. This has been an exciting few months for Selective. In May, we celebrated our 100th anniversary and our 50th year as a public company, by ringing the NASDAQ closing bell. More recently, we opened our new corporate headquarters in Short Hills, New Jersey. This office broadens our access to talent, and positions us near transportation hubs. That connect us more easily across our expanding geographic footprint. On July 1, we opened for business in Montana and Wyoming, and are pleased with early traction and agency engagement. These milestones reflect our long term commitment to disciplined growth and operational excellence. This marked our 8th consecutive quarter with double digit operating ROE. We delivered a 13.7% operating ROE, led by excellent investment income, which grew 18% year over year. Each insurance segment produced an underwriting profit, and our 98% combined ratio improved 2.2 points from a year ago. E and S performance remained strong, and our Personal Lines combined ratio of 94.1 for the first half of the year is ahead of our 95% combined ratio target. Driving margin improvement in standard commercial lines, our largest, segment, remains a key area of focus. Net premiums written declined 5% for the quarter. We believe discipline is imperative in the current environment and we remain fully committed to expanding our market share meaningfully where and when margins warrant it. We believe the composition of that decline is important. As a meaningful portion reflects actions we are taking to improve portfolio economics and long term returns. Year to date, our E and S and Personal Lines segments outperformed our 95% combined ratio target. In standard commercial lines, our combined ratio was 99.7 As such, we remain focused on improving margins and further diversifying our business. Mix. Contractors continues to be an important industry vertical where we have proven expertise. However, the casualty oriented nature of this business has pressured performance in recent years. As we and the industry work through elevated commercial casualty loss trends. In 2025, contractors represented 43% of our commercial lines premiums. Through the first half of 26, accounted for 33% of new business. While new business diversification improved, Standard Commercial Lines new business premium declined 22% in the second quarter consistent with the first quarter decrease. Stronger new business pricing informed by our view of expected loss trends, combined with a competitive market, drove lower conversion rates. We are leveraging our tools granular insights, and differentiated operating model to drive higher renewal retention on our best performing business. And meaningfully lower retention on our underperforming business through appropriate rating action. While the overall rate increases have moderated, we expect these mix improvement actions will contribute to improved profitability. The execution of this strategy accelerated during the second quarter, Retention in our best performing renewal cohort was 89% for the quarter. Consistent with a year ago. At the same time, retention in our worst performing cohorts decreased from 81% to 55%. And renewal rate increased from 11.5% to 18%. This is exactly the portfolio effect we intended as we believe these actions improve the earnings power of the portfolio over time. These actions are simultaneously supporting our broader organizational priority to further diversify our business. In the quarter, contractors retention declined approximately 2 points year over year, reflecting its casualty orientation and our view of required rate levels in commercial auto liability and general liability. Of the 6 percentage point decline standard commercial lines net premiums written this quarter, Lower new business contributed 3 percentage points of the decrease. Actions on the renewal portfolio specifically in our worst performing cohorts, drove the remaining 3 percentage points. We are constraining growth where margins did not meet our targets, and focusing new business and retention strategies on the business that continues to enhance the earning power of the book. While these actions take time to earn through the portfolio, we believe they position us for improved underlying margins and more attractive risk adjusted returns. E and S delivered another strong quarter with a 91.8% combined ratio, and a disciplined underwriting across both property and casualty. Renewal pure price increased 3.4%, with continued rate momentum in casualty reflecting our view of general liability loss trends. Property pricing was slightly negative, consistent with competitive market conditions and strong margins. Increased competition in the marketplace along with our disciplined approach contributed to a 2% premium decline in the quarter. The E and S market has benefited from strong tailwinds over recent years. But historically has exhibited more cyclicality than the admitted market. We are seeing more capacity entering the E and S marketplace, including appetite expansion by admitted market carriers. With our strong margins, 50 states footprint, and expansion of our distribution channel to include our retail agents, we believe E and S continues to present a long term opportunity to support our profitable growth and diversification objectives. Personal Lines profitability continues to improve, despite expected variability in property losses. The combined ratio was 95.5 up from 91.6 in the second quarter of 2025, driven by higher non catastrophe property losses. Year to date, the combined ratio of 94.1 was 80 basis points better than the first 6 months of 25, and compared favorably to the 100.6 combined ratio for the full year 2025. Results remain stronger outside of New Jersey. Net premiums written declined 8% with target business down 2%. New business decreased 36% in the quarter, driven by an increasingly competitive auto market and restrictions we have in place to manage exposure in New Jersey. Homeowners premium was relatively flat in the quarter, as we continue to gain traction in our target market. Average new business home values remained in excess of $1 million for the first half of the year and target market business now represents approximately 70% of our homeowners' premium. We are focused on growth in our target market, where we believe our rates are adequate. Renewal pure price increased 8.9% with continued refinement of our segmentation strategy. For each of our insurance segments, the actions we are taking to strengthen our portfolio reflect the same disciplined approach that has long guided selective success. We remain focused on improving fundamentals across risk selection, individual policy pricing and claim outcomes. Diversifying revenue and income within and across our 3 insurance segments and further leveraging data, analytics and technology including artificial intelligence, to drive operational efficiency, and improve underwriting and claim outcomes. Now I will turn the call over to Patrick.
Patrick Sean Brennan
Management
Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. For the quarter, we reported fully diluted EPS of $2.11 and non GAAP operating EPS of $1.95 resulting in a 14.8% ROE and a 13.7% operating ROE. Our GAAP combined ratio was 98.0%, including 5.6 points of catastrophe losses. Year to date, strong after tax net investment income and a GAAP combined ratio of 98.1 delivered a 13% ROE and a 12.8% operating ROE. Ahead of our 12% target. As in the first quarter, we had no prior year casualty reserve development at the segment or line of business level. Severities have generally tracked in line with expectations. However, we have observed higher than expected frequency in the first half of the year for commercial auto liability and have adjusted our current year loss ratios accordingly. In commercial auto, the year to date underlying loss ratio of 69.7 was up modestly compared to full year 2025. Including the current accident year frequency adjusted and previously contemplated severity pressures, partially offset by earned renewal pure price. In general liability, the year to date underlying loss ratio was 0.8 points higher than full year 2025, reflecting elevated severity trends we embedded in the current accident year as part of our planning process. Turning to pricing. For the quarter, excluding workers' compensation, renewal pure price increased 7.4%. General liability pricing increased 8.7%, and commercial auto pricing increased 9.3%. Up 20 basis points sequentially. Auto liability pricing approached 13%, demonstrating our ability to deliver rate increases where they are most needed. Property renewal premium increased 7.7%, including 3.3 points of exposure growth. We are prudently managing the impact of net premiums written as we balance maintaining a competitive expense ratio with strategic investments to support future growth and operational efficiency. We remain committed to technology investments that we believe will increase the capacity and decision quality of our teams. For 2026, we expect our expense ratio will be consistent with our expectation of approximately 31.5% at the beginning of the year. Effective July 1, we renewed our casualty excess of loss and property per risk reinsurance treaties. These treaties cover our standard commercial lines standard personal lines, and E and S businesses. The casualty excess of loss treaty covers our entire casualty portfolio and provides $87 million in excess of a $3 million retention. As part of the renewal, we reduced our co participation in the first layer from 20% to 8% and all remaining layers were fully placed with no co participation. We also renewed our property per risk treaty, which now provides $115 million of coverage in excess of a $5 million retention on a per risk basis. The $20 million increase in treaty limit from the expiring program reflects continued business growth and higher insured values across the portfolio. Turning to capital management. Our capital management approach is unchanged. We prioritize supporting the profitable growth of our business over the long term, and aim to return 20% to 25% of earnings to shareholders through dividends. We will also opportunistically repurchase shares. During the quarter, we returned nearly 50% of our after tax net income to shareholders through regular dividend and $32 million of share repurchases at attractive valuations. Our strong capital position supports this commitment to delivering long term value. At quarter end, $108 million remained on our authorization. After tax net investment income was $119 million in the quarter. Up 18% year over year. This generates 13.9 points of ROE. The increase in net investment income was due to higher book yields driven by higher interest rates across the yield curve. The deployment of strong operating cash flows and active portfolio management also contributed to this positive outcome. The portfolio remains conservatively positioned with an average credit quality of A+ and a duration of 4.3 years. Turning to guidance, we continue to expect a GAAP combined ratio between 96.5% and 97.5 assuming 6 points of catastrophe losses. Given year to date underlying results, we expect to be near the top of the range. We now expect after tax net investment income of $480 million, up from our original expectation of $465 million. Our guidance assumes an effective tax rate of 21.5% and a fully weighted average share count of 60.2 million, reflecting year to date share repurchases. With that, operator, please start our question and answer session.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. To withdraw your question, please press 1-1 again. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.
Michael Phillips
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Your line is now open
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. John, I want to take my first question on your comments in the opening remarks on the new business and commercial growth, or decline, in the quarter. I guess 2 things. First, it is, yeah. I think your renewal pricing, you know, while I was sequentially down, I do not think it was down as much as we have seen from others. And then secondly, this obviously is the first quarter you have taken deliberate actions. Maybe the important point is that second point, it is not the first quarter you have done that. So, the drop you mentioned, new business, it contributed about half of that drop in commercial lines. Were you more aggressive with those actions this quarter than you have been on prior quarters? Or was there something else that led to the decline as we think about kind of what that means for future quarters?
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
Yeah. I guess to your point, Mike, the stance we have taken with regard to pricing overall on new business pricing is not new. That was certainly there. In the latter part of last year and maybe even part of this year. And the decline in new business In Q1 was pretty consistent with what we saw in Q2. I think when we talk about what happens going forward, I think there is a market dynamic here that will certainly drive that. And we have seen pressure on hit ratios in commercial lines, or our traditional hit ratios would have been in the mid thirties I would say they are probably down into the low 30s at this point. And I think that will continue to the extent that market pricing does not start to become more reflective of where run rate profitability is. In GL in particular. And where the loss trends are, But at the same time, we continue to view this market as 1 where individual risk selection matters a lot. So we have got a view on overall pricing on a line by line basis. But there are still high quality accounts to be found in this marketplace and our ability to identify those accounts pursue those accounts, and ultimately win those accounts will give us potential to continue to generate solid new business on a go forward basis and improve mix at the same time. So not just sitting here waiting for the market to turn. We are dialing up our efforts to increase submission activity in the places on a segment and geographic basis where we can where we can effectively compete at our target pricing levels. Those areas do exist. And our effort is on finding those.
Michael Phillips
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Your line is now open
Okay. Thank you, John. Patrick made the comment on commercial auto and frequency. I guess, do you have any details you can provide on kind of where it is coming from? Do you think this quarter was more of an anomaly? Is there a trend here that we should be focused on or worry about there?
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
I would say we saw in the first half of the year some elevated frequency. there is a hypothesis to suggest that you see this when you have a heavier winter like we saw in the Northern Part Of The US this year. But I think from our perspective, rather than put full weight on that hypothesis, we thought it was prudent to react to what we saw I will also say we saw this a couple of years back in workers' comp. It ultimately reversed itself and settled out, and we are not predicting that happening. I think it is we just view it as a prudent step to respond to what you see in the data early in the year If it reverses, that is great. If it does not, we have responded to it already. Okay. Thanks.
Michael Phillips
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Your line is now open
And maybe just lastly, high level question, for the industry. there is been, obviously, some tort reform actions at some states, I think, less so in some of your higher concentration geographic footprints. But have you seen any of your states, have you seen any efforts that would give kind of credible evidence that suggest that things might be turning for the better there, your casualty loss picks are still where they were last 3 quarters, so it suggests not. But any evidence that you can rely on there?
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
I would say there has been some more success. Right? Georgia was the first state to make significant reforms. I think that is certainly improved that environment. We have seen more targeted reforms in places like South Carolina around liquor liability. More recently, you saw in North Carolina, significant restrictions if not outright bans on third party litigation financing. I think those are all positives. I think some of the more recent actions, while it does not affect us, on New York with regard to trying to curtail fraud, in the claim system. I think that is a positive on a directional basis, but I would consider to continue to view these as sort of idiosyncratic items on a state by state basis and not broad based enough to impact the direction of severity trends. I think our expectation is the environment we are in will continue. It will ultimately find its own natural level. But we are not anticipating or predicting that is going to happen this year or. And our pricing accordingly But this is a big area of focus for us as an industry. it is our trade associations top item. In terms of public policy, so we are doing our best to change that outcome but I do not expect any significant change in the near term.
Michael Phillips
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Your line is now open
Okay. Wonderful. Thank you, guys. Appreciate your time.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.
Jon Paul Newsome
Analyst · Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open
Good morning. Thanks for the call. Maybe a little bit of to tease out on Patrick's comment about the combined ratio maybe a little bit towards the higher end of the range. In hindsight 2020, is that kind of a thought that it is about the claim frequency issues that you are talking about? Or is it a, you know, competitive situation that is that is a little bit different than what you have thought about at the beginning of the year and just maybe a little bit of what came in as unexpected over the last 6 months that trend wise, you think might be interesting and have changed it.
Patrick Sean Brennan
Management
Yeah. Paul, thanks for the question. I guess I frame this in a couple of different ways, 1 of which is we did indicate a range We are affirming the range that we started with at the beginning of the year. Signaling that a more recent changes that we have had in the current accident year will flow through there. And so I think part of the messaging there is we see that, and we are helping folks understand how we expect the rest of the year to go. When you look at the rest of the year, I think I highlight the fact that we have a pretty robust planning process And in that planning process, when we are looking at creating our budgets and forecasts, we understand that there are seasonal aspects and different things that happen throughout the year. So as an example, if you look at first quarter of this year, our expense ratio was a little bit higher that is because some of the corporate expenses tend to flow through in the first quarter. And we see that on a regular basis. Those types of things are built into our plan. And so if you look at the balance of the year, I think we would be sitting here saying, we think we are going to land at the top end of the range. And what drives that is that non cap property tends to be a little bit heavier in the first half of the year. And we have contemplated all of the other pricing and underwriting actions that we have contemplated for the balance.
Jon Paul Newsome
Analyst · Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open
So the non cat weather is sort of the in hindsight, hindsight, the surprise variation? The quick to transition?
Patrick Sean Brennan
Management
No. Actually, quite the opposite. We tend to expect that non cat weather will be a little bit higher in the first half of the year. So that is why you would see maybe different loss ratios implied in the first half versus the second half in our planning process. What I am saying is the guide to the top end is reflecting the fact that to this point, we have taken additional losses into the current year and that therefore will reflect full year will be reflected in the full year results. We did not anticipate that as we came into the year.
Jon Paul Newsome
Analyst · Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open
Okay. Sorry about my confusion. Do you let me go back to the same question. From a competitive perspective, do you think it is different than what you expected? This year? In general, maybe just some thoughts broadly? Because, obviously, you folks are doing a lot of changing and pushing price where others are not. So I think you guys have a little bit different perspective, that others might have.
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
Yeah. Thanks, Paul. This is John. So let me tackle that. And, again, I hate to always to try to project on how other companies think about the world. When you look at where the market is and look at where results are, for us and the rest of the industry on a commercial casualty basis, whether it is GL or commercial auto, run rate performance is not good. Right? The industry is generating an underwriting loss in general liability and underwriting loss in commercial auto, specifically on the auto liability side. there is generally not a sense, and I have I have not heard any public commentary with conviction that loss trends on commercial casualty are tempering. So there is no real explanation for why pricing has not remained firm specifically for GL. It has for commercial auto liability, but it has not for GL I think we do expect that will temper. But when you break down results and look at what happened in 2024 and 2025, the industry on GL added a little over $10 billion of adverse to GL in calendar year 2024. And in calendar year 2025, the industry added another $8 billion-plus to GL, Prior year. And that is that should reflect in how we think about current year run rates from a loss ratio perspective. And that should be reflecting in the pricing environment. And it does not indicate a declining pricing environment, but that is that is what we are seeing in GL, which is why we maintain conviction in view that has to reverse itself, and we are going to take that stance And I think on the auto side, while pricing has remained firm, specifically on the auto liability side, results have not really improved. Across the industry. And I think that is that would suggest that pricing there will remain firm. To me, the issue is willingness across the industry to subsidize those results. Those underwriting losses with really strong property, really strong specialty lines, workers' comp, prior year favorable development, and strong personal lines results across the industry And our expectation is as the margins in those more profitable lines and segments that I just referenced start to temper, and we know they will because pricing in those areas has tightened meaningfully I think it will put a little bit more pressure on these longer tail casualty lines, which are currently running at an underwriting loss for the industry and for many companies in the industry. And that will sort of force the issue regard to pricing. And our efforts not just this year, but over the last couple of years, are to stay out in front of that curve.
Jon Paul Newsome
Analyst · Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open
No. That really makes a lot of sense. Value the comments a lot. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is now open.
Michael Zaremski
Analyst · Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is now open
I guess just curious, given the bump in frequency which hopefully is temporary, You know, why did not you decide to take any reserve additions, maybe in commercial auto? And I know if you wanted to also just maybe talk about GL, too? it is good to see no reserve additions, but any-- it sounds like no changes in loss trend assumptions this quarter.
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
Yeah, Mike. So thank you for the question. So to answer your the latter part of your question first, yeah, we have not seen or are pointing to any change in our view of loss trend But I go back to the comments Patrick made earlier, and I reinforced with regard to the first question. Our reaction in the current year was entirely driven by our view of frequency in the current year. And as a result of that, that is why there is no need or no sort of response with regard to prior years. Prior years are evaluated separately. By line across all prior accident years, and the current year, you see frequency as your early indicator, and we have always said that. And I will kind of reinforce the earlier point. You know, there is a hypothesis that suggests that this is weather related in the first part of the year, but we think it is prudent for us based on where this line is to react. And that is what we have done here, and it is incorporated into our results. it is incorporated into our full year guidance, and we think that is a sensible place to be and Understood. Mike, sorry. GL, yeah, the other part of your question. You know, GL has been stable for us since 2024. And, you know, as you recall, we took a significant charge in GL in 2024. And when you look over the last 8 quarters since then, our GL reserve position or reserves have been very stable. And there is a couple of small movements that we highlighted over the course of 2025, but pointed to umbrella because we include umbrella in our GL line. And the umbrella experience was driven by auto as we talked about over the last couple of years. So we feel good about the actions we took in GL a couple of years ago, and I will kind of reinforce the point. You are continuing to see pressure across the industry and I think we feel good about getting out in front of that issue.
Michael Zaremski
Analyst · Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is now open
Got it. Got it. Not sure you want or are able to quantify, but IBNR ratios, but is it would you be able to share whether the IBNR ratios you are booking in kinda GL and commercial auto for the 2026 vintage are meaningfully higher, the same, or lower than kind of how you are booking the prior vintages. As we look at the higher loss ratios or want to tease out whether that is coming from, you know, page being a bit higher, or is it is it IBNR Yeah.
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
I guess what I would suggest is I would I would go back and look at what you can see for the in schedule p for 2025 and prior. To do that analysis. But I will also caution you, and I know you know this, but IBNR ratios cannot be looked at in isolation. And when you think about these longer tail casualty lines, you have to evaluate IBNR ratios in the context of what is happening from a disposal rate perspective. And a reporting pattern perspective. And I think most in the industry have commented on this, and you can see it across the industry Disposal rates have come down meaningfully over the last several years. Which means cycle times have lengthened which would suggest you need higher IBNR ratios when you look at across different companies' results because your disposal rates are much lower and that is driven by higher litigation rates. That are that are, you know, driving that. So I just-- IBNR ratios are 1 data point to look at, and I am not sort of suggesting that our IBNR ratios do not look strong because you will see that they do when you go through that analysis in 2025. All I am suggesting is you have to think about that in the broader picture. For us, our disposal rates on auto have actually held up quite well. And have been quite stable despite a higher litigation rate But I think you will see it for us and across the industry that is not necessarily the case in GL. Where cycle times have lengthened and the disposal rates have come down. Which creates a additional level of risk when you are looking at those IBNR ratios.
Michael Zaremski
Analyst · Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is now open
Okay. that is a very good point. Maybe just lastly, you brought up, it is exciting, the continued transition to the Short Hills or, you know, you announced it a while back, but the transition to the Short Hills headquarters, I know you have long had a great HQ in the Branchville area. I am just curious, the short run, obviously, it sounds like a great long term change. Maybe you can comment on that. But in the short run, has it been creating any kind of turnover or just, you know, issues that might be impacting anything like top line, etcetera, as maybe some employees are not making have decided over the past year or 2 not to make that move. Thanks.
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
Yeah. Thank you for the question. A number of pieces to that. First part, the short answer to your question around whether that is impacted growth in any way is no. I think it is important to keep in mind, we are moving our corporate functions from our headquarters to the new location Our underwriting organization is spread out across 6 regional offices, 1 of which is in Branchville, co located with our corporate headquarters, and that is not moving. that is gonna stay here. So in terms of disruption to the underwriting organization, I would call it relatively minimal. But with regard to disruption overall, of course, a move like this is disruptive. And the population impacted by this is a little less than 20% of our population it is stretched out over a period of years. In order to provide an appropriate level of flexibility So we are trying to manage that disruption as best we can. And as we mentioned in the prepared comments in the prepared comments, we think positions the organization for the future in a much better way, but also we were founded here in Branchville, New Jersey, and we are going to maintain a strong presence here in Branchville, New Jersey. We are going to have a large underwriting operation here. Our flood operation will be here. A number of other functions will remain So I just wanna I wanna reinforce that point because our the roots of this organization are very strong and deep. We are gonna continue to honor those.
Michael Zaremski
Analyst · Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is now open
Thanks for the candid answer. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is now open.
Meyer Shields
Analyst · Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is now open
Thanks so much. 2 quick questions, if I can. 1, is the premium decline in commercial property, is that a function of rate Or is that spillover from the underwriting actions that you are taking on other liability lines?
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
I would say it is it is related to what we are doing overall. Because remember, we tend to write on a package basis. I am not suggesting there is no monoline property in the portfolio, but there is very little monoline property in the portfolio. The decline is a little bit less than you see in auto. But I think that is more of a function of rate being lower in property than it is in auto as an example. But it is not-- it is not like we have underwriting actions focused on specifically on property And in fact, our property results have been quite strong. So it is really the portfolio effect of what we are trying to do from a profitability improvement perspective.
Meyer Shields
Analyst · Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is now open
Okay. that is very helpful. And then second, in the underlying loss ratio in BOP went up, then I am wondering, is that weather or is that also more conservatism on the liability side of things?
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
I would say it is it is property related. So our noncap property in the top line in the quarter was a bit overexpected. there is variability there, but it is that there is nothing to point to from a casualty perspective. that is just that is non cat property variability. And on a year to date basis, it is a little above expected. But in the quarter, it was a little bit more higher above expected. So that is it. Okay.
Meyer Shields
Analyst · Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is now open
Fair enough. And I know the Personal Lines book is intentionally sort of focused on the mass affluent. When we look at broader industry data, we are still seeing, I think, surprisingly low levels of severity trend outside of bodily injury. And I am wondering, is that showing up in Selective's results also?
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
I am sorry, Meyer. So you are talking about lower levels of BI or outside of the auto BI? Yeah. All of the sublines outside of BI, we are seeing, like, looking at the ISO data, very low severities. That I frankly do not understand. And I was wondering if you are seeing that. And if so, what you think is happening. Yeah. Well, I would say that, and I think it is pretty reflective of what we see in our own portfolio. But outside of auto BI and the personal lines space, those severity trends are gonna be more driven by economic inflation. When you think about even PD property damage liability and then auto and homeowners, it is more economic inflation driven And I think the tariff impacts being much more muted than anticipated and economic inflation being a lot more well behaved outside of certain aspects, of the CPI is probably what is keeping severity trend in check. Outside of BI.
Meyer Shields
Analyst · Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is now open
Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question at this time, please press 1 on your touch tone telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Rowland Mayor with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Rowland Mayor
Analyst · Rowland Mayor with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open
Hi. Good morning. To start, when did the contractors have diversification efforts kick off? And can you maybe walk through what portion of your book has gone through the renewal process there?
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
I would say diversification efforts are not a new concept for us. And clearly, over the last year or so, we have been particularly focused on making sure we are able to shift the mix in that direction. So not like there is some point in time that you are looking for renewal portfolio to have cycled through This is a this is a longer term strategy. And I wanna just reinforce the point Construction is a good business for us. And it has been a good business for us for a long time. This is more about line of business diversification. And, auto and general liability are big lines for us and will continue to be big lines for us, but we wanna continue to diversify into other lines and other segments of business. And that is the primary driver here. So aside, we are taking some concentrated action on the renewal portfolio that you should be looking for to work its way through the book. So I just wanna clarify that point.
Rowland Mayor
Analyst · Rowland Mayor with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open
No. that is helpful. Thank you. And then I guess shifting a little bit the workers' comp loss ratio improves quite significantly year over year and versus the first quarter. What was the driver of that?
Patrick Sean Brennan
Management
I would say primarily, we see we have had a lower frequency Meaning, we talked about this in 2024, and I mentioned this in the commentary earlier. Started to see a little bit of frequency elevation in the first couple of quarters that ultimately leveled out that influenced how we were thinking about 2025 when we were seeing that flattening frequency trends So then we saw frequencies in 2025 come through quite well relative to expected. And then we did reflect that in our 2026 expected loss ratios. And then we saw that better frequency continue through the first half of this year. So I think that is probably the primary point. there is a secondary item there that without getting into too much detail, we have made some enhancements to our audit process that led to some additional premium capture without associated loss exposure coming with it. But that is more of an operational item. Than anything else.
Rowland Mayor
Analyst · Rowland Mayor with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open
Okay. Thank you. And then if I could sneak in just 1 more. Given the negative top line, can you maybe walk through capital management and whether you would consider taking the payout ratio up? I think it is about 50% right now.
Patrick Sean Brennan
Management
Yeah, thanks for the question. I think given slower growth, that certainly does change the demand for capital. But I would say we take a long view. We are continuing to look for ways to invest in profitable growth. John talked about where we are looking for opportunities to continue to grow the business. We have our payout ratio from a dividend perspective in the 20% to 25% range over the long term. And as we have said previously, we will opportunistically buy in shares where it is attractive to do so and accretive to do so Those principles are always in balance. We are always trying to evaluate what is the best use of our capital and how we drive consistent returns over time, And so I would also remind you that the way that we think about this as well is return on equity is an important financial. So as we think about the amount of capital we have and how we deploy it, we are always looking to ensure that we do that in a way that drives consistent returns from an ROE perspective as well.
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
And, Roland, if I could just add a point or amplify a point because I think Patrick was spot on in how you responded, but just amplify the point around how we think about organizational growth and the fact that you really wanna think about growth over a longer term time period. And that is how we think about it. that is how we invest in the business. And I think the Selective growth story is no different than it was a quarter or 2 ago But there will be times in our business based on market dynamics and other factors where that growth will temper, and there are times where it will accelerate. And we are positioned to take advantage of those opportunities as they emerge But I think it is important to always think about the growth story for this company in a longer term time horizon We saw this movie before in 2010 and 2011 where growth flattened because we were focused on making sure we had underwriting and pricing discipline where it needed to be. And those actions set us up for a 10- or 12-year period where we were the organization on a compounded annual basis of about 9%. And we are positioning to do that same thing on a go forward basis. We are going to make sure that we are doing it in a manner where profit margins are appropriate over that time that is great.
Rowland Mayor
Analyst · Rowland Mayor with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open
Thank you. Have a great summer.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Thank you. And I am currently showing no further questions at this time. I would like to now hand the call back over to John Joseph Marchioni for closing remarks.
John Joseph Marchioni CPCU
Management
Great. Well, thank you all for joining us. We appreciate your time. appreciate your interest and the questions. And as always, if you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.