Luis Martinez
Analyst · Banco Bradesco BBI. Your microphone has been unmuted, sir
Hello, Rafael. This is Martinez once again. I will allow myself to speak about the international market. It has been very helpful in terms of our volumes. We had the best quarter in terms of volumes. In the last five quarters, we got to 1,086,000. This was not perceived, but it is an enormous challenge for us at CSN to reach that figure as a group. As part of Benjamin's strategy of not putting all the eggs in the same basket. That is why we have operations with operational excellence outside of Brazil. And this has enabled us to hit these volume records in the last five quarters. Now, this has just come out in Bloomberg. Biden is planning to increase fourfold the rates for china this is in Bloomberg please read this and see what is happening this corroborates what we have mentioned here. Now, still speaking about china, if we imagine what happened in China some quarters ago, a year ago, nowadays, if you look at the industrial PMI of China, all of the indices in industry are growing. We have a recovery of industry in China. They're privileging the automotive and industrial sectors. When it comes to civil construction, which is fundamental, the Politburo is working with a policy that shows which are the restrictions for housing, for new developments. Prices in China and this is good news, in this earthquake that we're living in Brazil, prices in China have been recovered by $20, $30. BQ is $535, $545. It was lower than that, almost at the level of $400. Another interesting point. Well, the emphasis of China has never changed its employability, and they'll do everything for it. We base ourselves on the average of the first quarter of exports from China. It stands at 650 -- 711,000 tons of flat steel in the first quarter. What does this mean? The imports in Brazil of 711,000 tons, mostly coming from China. If you annualize this, it's nothing. We're at a level of 3 million and an import penetration of '22, '23. Nothing has happened. We have to be more rigorous in terms of what we're doing in the United States. Well, things are somewhat hyperbolic. They're at a different moment from us as a country. The demand did have problems in some sectors, theoretically impacted by high interest rates. They slowed down in construction. But we do have sectors that seem to be the exception. The automotive sector is doing very well. Another important thing that is happening in the USA, purchases are contained. Investors want to know what is the bottom of the well in terms of price. We're coming to a situation of stabilization. In January, it was $1,200 per ton. We're now down to $895, $910. We shouldn't have significant problems in price in the United States. At the U.S.A. plants, and this is interesting, I looked at the EBITDA. If you look at the operational difference, margins are doing very well. Thank you at 20%. The sector is profitable. It is being privileged by the government. There is national safety. The goal is full employability. There's Biden, the storing and everything to work out. As a pillar, the goal is the growth of the country. Now in Europe, it has been stable for some time. There was a discrete drop. The commercial defense measures were quite positive now to send Q2, Portugal iPay and tieing of €53 and a sanction of €25, how to compete by employing people in Europe. You begin to question if this is correct, the world is closing down, and we are completely different from other countries. In the case of Brazil, what is happening? In the first quarter, the demand was practically stable vis-a-vis the fourth quarter. We saw an official figure of €3.50 billion annualized, it would be €14 million, BRL 14.5 million, which was what we had last year. Now there has been a drop, I believe, in some exports. Unfortunately, this doesn't happen with the prod that CSN has where they have enormous capacity in China, they are coded products. Now in the Brazilian domestic market, the assembly plants are facing a very positive moment. The second quarter, they forecast a growth that will be quite aggressive of 13%, sales somewhat higher as they have good inventory in sectors of distribution, 3%. These sectors linked to consumption, the white line and packaging still very timid because consumers are holding back, and we're holding back in the market, but I do not believe that the Brazilian market will close with figures lower than 2023. The CSN projection is to have a growth, highly leveraged by civil construction. In the case of civil construction, we still have a carryover of launches of developments. We have launches in infrastructure by private initiative. We also have public works, of course, but they're not very significant. They're more sporadic. And the confidence, interest of civil construction is the highest compared to other chains with this scenario to see what we can do. The cast iron ore of 115, 120 coal to 47, the real dollar since the last call, 4.8 to 5 and the BQ premium that I mentioned of €535, €545 million compared to the nationalized import is 12% to 15%. So this premium is a limit basically to work with price corrections. But at some point in time, in the second quarter, perhaps in the third quarter because of these changes, we will have to make price corrections to make our margins somewhat more positive. The EBITDA margin and what we deliver in a per tonne that have had a great drop vis-a-vis the last two years. This is a scenario that we face in the Brazilian market. The great challenge for CSN. And I have a limitation. I have to fight against the imported products. We have to fight with the weapons we have in-house in the products that CSN are losing market 400,000, 350,000 a year, tin-plates have dropped to half because of imports. Besides everything I said about galvanized material. We do have problems with thin plates and this was a process calculated anti-dumping with the local verification and nothing has been done. There is no protection whatsoever and CSN's request has been postponed. So this is a scenario we face. We're going to continue producing volumes, working as Benjamin says at full steam, selling less for more, acting in different segments of industry, and we're ready to fight. We have no other way out but defend what we are producing. This is a scenario for Brazil.