Luis Martinez
Analyst · BTG Pactual. Leonardo, you may proceed
Leo, one important thing, first we need to consider what is happening in the world. We already heard about this in the first call this morning. But this is all somehow permeating and being transferred to Brazil, regarding the import spiller which has grown greatly. China today has the control -- has decided that they will have a strong production control in the second half of the year. We have heard from different plans that we'll be working at much lower levels. And in steel production, this is very positive, because this certainly means that prices will increase in China, compared with the current prices of about $930, $940. Other data like industrial production, retail and automotive, and a reduction of the rebates that they have today for export products. So this is what's happening in China. In Russia, for example, which is a country that we didn't use to mention a lot, but on August 1st, they're going to have the implementation of temporary tariffs for imports of iron and non-iron products. So this will certainly impact us. And another important subject, which is, very interesting and important for Brazil is that we're going back to apparent consumption levels of 2013. In 2013, we had BRL14.5 million then we reached that value of BRL11 million or BRL10 million. And now in 2021, from what we see we should close the year at BRL14.5 million or BRL15 million. And why do I think this price can be sustained overtime? One important thing is that today in Brazil because of supply and demand, and also because of the service level that we have been providing which improved greatly particularly in CSN. I think we are allowed to maintain higher premiums. Premiums of about 15% are not a sin today, vis-à-vis the instability of the market, the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate and the market. Supply and demand as I said, we have a good relationship today. And another important point that I just mentioned is that, costs. Although, we think they are totally controlled they are not controlled. Coke has skyrocketed to $210. Iron ore is still at very high levels. The prices are around the world. And we are not different from the rest of the world. They are more appreciated than in Brazil. Today, in Brazil, we have price effect of maybe a BQ of about $1,400 or $1,220, similar to Europe. In the U.S. they're higher. And with this current global situation the peak of imports has gone by already. Of course there will be a carryover for the next few months. The exchange rate variable is exogenous so we don't -- will not have full control, but we believe in the level of 5.10, 5.20 which is still healthy for us. So these are basically the items that are supporting, our strategy. And we can even think of a price increase in the future, depending on the cost and depending on the premium or the dollar exchange rate. Regarding import tariffs, I think this makes no sense. And it would actually be counterproductive, because we don't want to compete. All the steel industries in the world from their door in are very competitive. But what motivated the discussion about the import tariffs was supply. So what causes the import cost is the low stock. And this doesn't happen anymore. We have full supply currently. And regarding competition, we're already preparing for the drop in these tariffs. And it's interesting to see this happening in Brazil because this means that the other reforms will be happening in parallel. So having this competitive strategy and the other reforms taking place, I don't see why we should reduce the rates. And regarding the import tariffs, this was very polarized in a few sectors. Today markets are well replenished. And when we talk about imports we see a lot of imports coming in. We have 900,000 tons imported this year. It was equivalent to the whole of last year. So competitiveness is full in this industry. I don't think that will be a relevant threat. I don't even think that will be a priority for the government. The highest priority for the government based on our conversations was supply. And we don't have a supply problem now. We have full supply in all product lines.