Amy Shapero
Analyst · Canaccord. Please go ahead
Thanks, Harley. Our merchants truly exemplified the spirit of entrepreneurship in 2020, and along with years of strategic investment and strong execution by Shopify, they helped propel us to exceptional Q4 and 2020 results. Revenue nearly doubled once again in our fourth quarter to $977.7 million, up 94% over the same period last year. Subscription Solutions revenue of $279.4 million accelerated to 53% growth year-over-year, largely due to exceptional growth in monthly recurring revenue. MRR growth also accelerated to 53% year-over-year to $82.6 million in Q4 as a high number of new merchants joined the platform in the quarter following record merchant adds in the third quarter. Q4 MRR also benefited from incremental new revenue from our Retail POS Pro subscription offering as subscription pricing came into effect in November 2020. Shopify Plus contributed $21 million to MRR or 25% compared with 27% of MRR in Q4 of 2019 while Shopify Plus MRR grew significantly, non-Plus MRR grew faster, benefiting from a significantly higher number of merchants on standard plans joining the platform in 2020, as well as from our Retail POS Pro subscription beginning November 1. Merchant solutions revenue grew 117% to $698.3 million in Q4 compared to the same period in 2019. This outstanding growth was driven primarily by merchant strong sales with GMV nearly doubling year-over-year to $41.1 billion in the fourth quarter alone. Strong Q4 GMV was the result of a greater share of retail spend going to online purchases and extended Black Friday, Cyber Monday shopping season and higher GMV per merchant. This strong growth in merchant sales combined with merchants’ increased adoption of Shopify Payments, Capital and Shipping drove revenue from these products higher. $19.1 billion of GMV was processed on Shopify Payments in Q4, an increase of 116% versus the comparable quarter last year. Payments penetration of GMV was 46% versus 43% in Q4 2019 and more than one percentage point over Q3 this year. The majority of new merchants coming on to Shopify opted to use Shopify Payments and Shopify Plus and international merchants expanded their share of GPV year-over-year. Demand for Shopify Capital remained strong in Q4 with merchants receiving $226.9 million in funding across the U.S., the UK and Canada, up 96% versus the same period last year and the highest year-over-year increase in funding in 10 quarters. Our data algorithms and prudent risk management help keep loss ratios in line with historical periods. We are proud to stand with our merchants and provide them with convenient access to funding to help get them through the most difficult of times because we know that ultimately when our merchants succeed Shopify succeeds. Adjusted gross profit dollar growth accelerated to 89% over last year’s fourth quarter to $510.6 million, reflecting strong revenue growth despite the significantly greater mix of lower margin Merchant Solutions revenue versus last year and the ramp-up of investment in Shopify Fulfillment Network. Adjusted operating income was $200 million in the fourth quarter compared to adjusted operating income of $28.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 as our strong revenue performance in the quarter greatly outweighed spending. Adjusted net income for the quarter was $198.8 million, or $1.58 per diluted share, compared with adjusted net income of $50 million, or $0.43 per diluted share in last year’s fourth quarter. Finally, our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities balance was $6.39 billion on December 31. With a strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to fund our growth initiatives and help merchants capitalize on the trends that Harley spoke to earlier. Shopify enters 2021 stronger and more mission-focused. This year, we will continue our important work of building a global commerce operating system to arm independent merchants everywhere with the tools they need to build their own businesses and take advantage of the strong secular shift to online commerce. This translates to executing on a portfolio of growth initiatives that put Shopify into the hands of more entrepreneurs, unlocks the value of the platform for our merchants and increasingly delivers scale benefits. Three key areas of incremental investment in 2021 are Shopify Fulfillment Network, the Shop App and international expansion. Starting with Shopify Fulfillment Network. We capped off a year of significant progress with the successful fourth quarter, advancing the development of our fulfillment service. In Q4, we continued to harden our systems, executed multiple flash sales and smoothly processed record volume through the peak holiday season. We also shipped our first self-service onboarding system, making it easier for merchants to access our network. We announced Shopify Fulfillment Network 18 months ago to reduce the complexity of fulfillment for our merchants and our network is taking shape. In 2020, we opened an R&D warehouse in Ottawa to test fulfillment technology, built out a network of warehouse and transportation partners, enhanced our merchant-facing app to provide updates on inventory and orders and assembled a team of fulfillment success managers to simplify the merchant experience. We also learned a few things along the way that are informing the development of our product, most important of all kind of optimize to provide fast, accurate and affordable fulfillment with great customer service. This will be reflected in much of our decision-making, including the partners we work with and the design of our network. As we planned when we started this journey a year and a half ago, we will use 2021 to continue improving product market fit to focus first on quality and merchant delight before we scale our fulfillment capabilities. This means iterating on the software that tightly integrates fulfillment into our tech stack, optimizing our node network, which may involve adjusting our network of warehouses to best serve our merchants needs and accelerating our merchants onboarding journey. We also plan to continue to invest in the automated fulfillment technologies of 6 River Systems, which recorded strong revenues in our fourth quarter and exceeded 2020 bookings expectations. 6 River Systems technology has helped improve the productivity of Shopify Fulfillment Network and we believe will play an important role in supporting our scaling efforts. Our Shop App is another area we plan to invest aggressively in 2021. We launched the Shop App just 10 months ago to help merchants strengthen their relationships with buyers with the ultimate goal of increasing customer lifetime value for our merchants. Since then we have placed the app into the pockets of millions of buyers, making it easier for them to rediscover and purchase from the merchants they love and introduced features to discover local shops and Black-owned businesses. In 2021, we will continue to develop the Shop App into a must-have shopping companion that fosters buyer loyalty and retention. We plan to invest in building features that will further reduce friction for buyers that more points along the shopping journey from discovery to delivery, creating value for both our merchants and their buyers. And third, international expansion. 2020 demonstrated just how big our addressable market is. Year-over-year GMV growth by our international merchants outpaced overall GMV growth and our international merchant base grew within the overall mix. We continue to localize the platform in several regions in 2020, making it easier to sell cross-border and from a mobile device and launching Shopify Payments with a local payment method in Belgium, as well as in Austria. In Q4, we introduced local pick-up points in France, a popular delivery method in Europe. In 2021, we are focusing heavily beyond our core geographies to bring our omnichannel capabilities to more merchants. We expect to continue to localize our solutions and countries where we have established a foothold and increase investments in sales and marketing to bring Shopify to more merchants around the globe. Another area we will incrementally invest albeit at a lower level is Retail POS. Retail merchants demonstrated resilience in a tough year, adapting to socially distant selling, our Retail POS product, especially resonated with businesses, wanting to seamlessly bridge their online and off-line operations and buyer-facing experience. Momentum continued in Q4 as more merchants adopted our POS offering and GMV increased to record levels, delivering a real turnaround from the first half of the year. In 2021, we will continue to grow merchant adoption of our Retail POS and POS Pro offering by investing in foundational technologies to make things like onboarding easier and our sales team expanding our POS products to more countries and in executing our go-to-market strategy. We believe our investments in international and Retail POS will help expand Shopify’s presence and enable us to capture more of our TAM, while encouraging more entrepreneurs around the world to start businesses on and off-line. We’ve intentionally invested in both these areas over the past couple of years and expect them to deliver returns over the next couple of years. As always, we intend to invest in our future across the business, including our platform, which encompasses our core and Shopify Plus offerings and our established merchant solutions Shopify Payments, Shipping and Capital. These products, which are profitable today, give merchants the fundamental tools to start and grow their businesses and have been critical in setting Shopify’s flywheel in motion. While these tools are designed to make selling easy, our platform also allows for extensibility and a focus in 2021 is on continuing to enhance developer tools for merchants who want to customize their experiences beyond what’s available out of the box. In 2020, years of investment in our platform paid off as the future of retail was pulled forward, enabling Shopify to act fast to help our merchants adapt during the pandemic and encourage more entrepreneurs to begin their journey. In 2021, we plan to execute on our product roadmaps, bringing our solutions to more merchants around the world and strengthening our value proposition as a leading global commerce platform. 2020 was an exceptional year of growth in revenue and adjusted operating income for Shopify, driven by the unprecedented acceleration of e-commerce by COVID, which drove an acceleration in the growth of GMV and new merchants on the platform and the increased adoption of merchant solutions. We believe the change behaviors adopted by merchants and consumers in 2020 have expanded the prospects for entrepreneurship and digital commerce significantly. Our outlook coming into 2021 assumes that as countries rollout vaccines in 2021 and populations are able to move about more freely, the overall economic environment will likely improve. Some consumer spending will likely rotate back to off-line retail and services and the ongoing shift to e-commerce, which accelerated in 2020, will likely resume a more normalized pace of growth. For the full-year 2021, we expect Subscription Solutions revenue growth to be driven by more merchants around the world joining the platform in a number of lower than the record in 2020, but higher than any year prior to 2020. The growth rates of Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions revenues are likely to be more similar than in the recent past as we do not expect the surge in GMV that drove Merchant Solutions in 2020 to repeat. And Merchant Solutions revenue growth to be driven by continued GMV growth from existing merchants and new merchants joining the platform and expanded adoption of Shopify’s growing menu of Merchant Solutions, including established offerings, such as Shopify Payments, Shopify Shipping and Shopify Capital, both geographically and as merchants grow into them, while newer solutions, such as Shopify Fulfillment Network and 6 River Systems contribute nascent but incremental revenue in their early stages. As a result, we expect that we will continue to grow revenue rapidly in 2021 albeit at a lower rate than in 2020. With regard to seasonality, while we expect that Q1 will still likely contribute the smallest share of full-year revenue and Q4 the largest, the revenue spread may be more evenly distributed across the four quarters than it has been historically to the degree the rollout of the vaccine shifts more spending to services and prompts more off-line shopping towards the back half of the year. 2020 catapulted commerce into a period of incredibly rapid change, presenting Shopify with unprecedented opportunities in 2021 to accelerate innovation. We expect rapid growth in gross profit dollars in 2021 and plan to deploy substantially all of these dollars effectively, investing back into our business as aggressively as we can. In research and development, we are launching an ambitious hiring campaign for engineers that we expect will gain strength over the course of 2021. In sales and marketing, we expect to increase online marketing spend into increased global demand, add to our global sales teams to capture more Shopify Plus and POS merchants, both in North America and internationally and expand product marketing to help merchants take advantage of the full range of capabilities on the platform. For 2021, we anticipate stock-based compensation expenses and related payroll taxes of $465 million and amortization of acquired intangibles of $21 million. As many of you, who have followed us for years know, we have always prioritized long-term value over short-term financial opportunities because we don’t manage our business to achieve short-term discrete financial results, we are replacing quarterly and annual numeric ranges with information on directional indicators, the primary levers driving our financials and the assumptions that guide our planning. Spending more time discussing the inputs instead of trying to predict a specific financial output should build a greater understanding of the many moving parts at Shopify, the areas that are profitable today those where we are incrementally investing and trends that shape our revenue and cost structure over time. We ultimately hold ourselves accountable for returns on our investments by whether or not they move the needle for our merchants because it is their success that ultimately drives our own. In closing, Shopify has a massive opportunity to shape the future of commerce and we are excited about 2021. We believe we are investing in the right initiatives to urgently build out the commerce infrastructure that will give our merchants and Shopify the edge to win, positioning us and our merchants for success this year and into the future. I’ll now hand the call back to Katie.