Earnings Labs

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Tue, May 4, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Steve Madden 2010 first quarter earnings conference call. Today’s call is being recorded. For opening remarks and introductions I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Jean Fontana of Integrated Corporate Relations.

Jean Fontana

Management

Thanks for joining us for the discussion of Steve Madden’s first quarter 2010 earnings results. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that statements in this conference call that are not statements of historical or current facts constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other unknown facts that could cause actual results to be materially different from historical results or any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Statements contained herein are also subject generally to other risks and uncertainties that are described from time-to-time in the company’s reports and registration statements filed with the SEC. Also, please refer to today’s earnings release for more information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ. Finally, please note that any forward-looking statement used in this call cannot be relied upon as current after this date. I would now like to turn the call over to Ed Rosenfeld, Chairman and CEO of Steve Madden.

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

2010 is off to a great start. Consolidated net sales increased 23% in the first quarter to $131.6 million. The EPS adjusted for the three for two stock split increased 124% to $0.55 per diluted share. Importantly, the strength in our business was broad based as we achieved solid top and bottom line gains in both wholesale and retail as well as strong increases in our first cost and licensing segments. As always, the foundation of our success stems from our outstanding creative team led by Steve which is consistently delivering product that truly resonates with what has become a very diversified consumer base. Our ability to be on top of the latest trends, effectively translate them in to footwear and accessories and quickly bring the product to market remains the key to our success. The primary driver of our sales and earnings growth in the quarter was the strong performance of our existing brands. However, we also got important contributions from some of the more recent additions to our business. Elizabeth & James introduced in May of last year continues to grow based on strong performance at Neiman Marcus, Saks 5th Avenue, Nordstrom and others and our most recent collaboration with Mary Kate and Ashley Olsen, Oslenboye is off to an excellent start in approximately 600 doors with JC Penny. Initial sell throughs have been strong for both footwear and accessories in Olsenboye. Our new men’s line Madden has also been met with a favorable response. In Madden we are using different materials, primarily synthetics to offer fashionable products for men at more moderate prices than Steve Madden Men’s. We continue to see this brand as a significant growth vehicle for 2010 and beyond. Turning to accessories, our Q1 results have benefitted from solid sales and earnings contributions from…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: There were some moving parts in the Adesso business, I think there was a piece of Wal-Mart that came out. Can you just talk about what the sort of apples-to-apples number is? It was a great number and I’m just trying to figure out what the sort of comp performance was.

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

You’re right, Wal-Mart has come out of that line this year and moved in to the sales and cost of goods company. But, the big contribution from Wal-Mart really came in the second and third quarter last year. It was a pretty small number in the first of 2009 and also a small number in first of 2010 that moved in to the sales line. We did have some changes in timing though versus last year. There was some unusual seasonality in the first half of last year, some shipments got pushed out in to second quarter and if you look at our numbers last year you’ll see that the Adesso business did about three times as much in Q2 last year as Q1. That is not a typical seasonality and so this year you should see Q1 looking much more similar to Q1 level. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: Realistically it could be down from Q2 a year ago given the Wal-Mart shift?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Yes, it should be. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: Great to see you feeling more confident about retail profitability, I mean this is a division that historically has never really made much money so what do you really think the real run rate of the profitability is on this level of sales, this store count? And, where do you see that going over the next 12 to 24 months?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Well, we’re pleased. If you look at the trailing four quarters we now are making a modest profit in retail and we think that if we can continue to get comp gains during the balance of the year that we could approach something like a 5% operating margin excluding any kind of charges for store closings but 5% is our target for the ongoing store base. Long term we really believe that this can be a 10% operating margin business. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: Then just lastly, in terms of the wholesale, it’s still a little early on visibility for boots, do you have a sense for how retailers are planning your boot business yet? How early they’re going to take from fashion products and if your thinking there has changed relative to a quarter or two ago?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

No, we still feel pretty confident about the upcoming boot season. As I talked about on the last call, we really got some very strong reads in our retail stores in Q1 with some late in season boot deliveries of new boot product and we feel pretty confident about that. That’s usually been a very good indicator of what’s going to work in the fall season and the upcoming boot season. We are going to be shipping fashion boots in starting 6/25 and then certainly more 7/25 and so far the initial orders on boots are quite strong. Again, our guidance assumes that the boot season overall isn’t quite as good this year as it was a year ago but we do feel confident about it. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: Did you deliver boots last year 6/25?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

In a small way. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: So that’s definitely going to be up and then 7/25 boot deliver seems like it is up as well?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Yes, right now we have more orders for 7/25 boots than we did a year ago. But, keep in mind last year we had retailers who were very conservative at this time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jeff Van Sinderen – B. Riley & Company, Inc. Jeff Van Sinderen – B. Riley & Company, Inc.: Can you update us on the progress in the international business? I know you mentioned that in your prepared comments a little bit and I’m just wondering what’s kind of brewing there?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Well, we talked on the last call about how we sort of took a pause in our growth in 2009. We really felt some of the effects of the global recession, we had to change a couple of our distributors because a couple of them ran in to financial difficulties and so we had to terminate our relationships with existing partners and move on to new partners. But, we’re really through that period and we now feel that we’re again positioned for growth. We had a nice growth, about 8% in our international business in Q1 and for the balance of the year we’re looking to be double digit grower in the international piece. We’re really excited about what we’re doing with our partner GRI in China as well as our new partner The [Lew] Group in Australia and we’re continuing to add partners as well. We actually just signed up with a group in Russia called Monarch and we’re going to start shipping product to Russia in Q3. Jeff Van Sinderen – B. Riley & Company, Inc.: Just sort of a more recent thing, did you guys see any trend change in your company owned retail stores in April versus March with the calendar shift and all of that?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Well, I think April was for most people a little bit weaker than March although we still had a nice comp gain and feel good about the overall trend but March was a pretty spectacular month for just about everybody. Jeff Van Sinderen – B. Riley & Company, Inc.: Are you seeing anything in terms of acquisitions that look appealing?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

No, there’s really not a lot in the pipeline right now. We continue to be on the lookout. We remain interested in finding the right acquisition but there’s nothing that is imminent. Jeff Van Sinderen – B. Riley & Company, Inc.: Your gross margins has a great improvement for the quarter and I am just wondering obviously you’ve given some guidance for the year but I’m just wondering how big of a part of that is gross margin increase? Is the 45.5% sustainable? How should we think about that going forward?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Well the 45% is a pretty outstanding number. I wouldn’t expect us to continue at that level for the balance of the year. We do feel that there is opportunity for year-over-year improvement in Q2. In the back half we indicated that we think the gross margin should be down modestly year-over-year really driven in part by about 100 to 120 basis point dilution from the Wal-Mart business moving from the other income line in to the sales line. So absent that we think we could be up modestly in the back half but with that impact we should be down modestly in the back half year-over-year. Jeff Van Sinderen – B. Riley & Company, Inc.: But that’s just a shift it really doesn’t have anything to do with the performance of your business?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Right, that’s just geography on the income statement.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Sam Poser – Sterne, Agee & Leach. Sam Poser – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Just a little more on the gross margin, on a net basis can you give us sort of where you would see it on a full year on an apples-to-apples basis?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Let’s just say that for the full year we think we can be up modestly from where we were a year ago even with the impact of the Wal-Mart shift. Sam Poser – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Then when we think about the SG&A how should we think about that as well?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Well, we’re looking at 17% to 19% sales growth so obviously there’s going to be some associated variable expenses. Obviously, the SG&A line is going to be growing but we do feel that we’re going to get leverage. I think if you think about SG&A dollar growth for the year of roughly 10% that’s a decent target. Sam Poser – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Then just the retail gross margins, you mentioned in the release there’s higher ASPs and higher initial mark ups. Can you sort of tell us how those higher ASPs came to be and then a little bit about the mark ups and how the IMUs are up? Just give us more details there?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

The AUR in retail was driven a lot by the boots and booties. Obviously boots and booties are a small part of the Q1 mix in wholesale but in retail it’s still a very meaningful component. Boots and booties are about 53% of the business, of our women’s business in retail in Q1. That was up 43% from a year ago and that was really a big factor in driving the AUR up. We actually had a double digit AUR increase in retail in Q1. In terms of the margin, you mentioned the IMU, we did get some increase in the IMU based on sharper factory pricing out of China, better sourcing. The think that I’ll caution you about is we think that’s going to reverse itself to a large degree in the back half. As you’ve probably heard from many people in the industry that prices out of China should be up modestly in the back half. But, the biggest factor in terms of the gross margin was actually not the IMU it was less discounting. You’ll remember that Q1 of last year was when things were at their most bleak and there was some very heavy discounting, particularly in New York City we were running some buy ones get one 90% off at the time. We obviously didn’t have to anniversary that and so we had a much stronger gross margin performance this year. Sam Poser – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Lastly, can you give us some details on the incremental men’s business and what the current update of the potential contribution of the Madden line is?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Well, we’re very pleased about what’s going on with men’s. Our Steve Madden business excluding the new Madden business but the existing Steve Madden business was actually our fastest growing existing wholesale footwear division. It was up about 50% year-over-year so we’re on a real nice trend there. Then, when you layer on this new business Madden, we think we have a chance to have a very, very strong overall men’s performance this year. Madden continues to do well, we’re really following the Madden Girl play book of offering to a pretty wide universe of retailers. It’s going to go in to department stores, it’s going to go to family channel retailers like DSW, it’s going to go to specialty retailers like Journeys. We set a target on the last call of about $10 million, I think we think we’re going to do a little bit better than that, we can do anywhere between $10 and $15 in the first year under Madden.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Heather Boksen – Sidoti & Company, LLC. Heather Boksen – Sidoti & Company, LLC.: A lot of my questions were already answered but I’m just curious about your uses of cash given the way its building. I know you said it doesn’t seem like there are any acquisitions in the pipeline now so what are your thoughts on what you would do with the cash?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Well, we have been talking quite a lot about how our priority has been to find acquisitions. We have been very pleased with the two accessories we have done, Madden Zone in July and Big Buddha in February and if we could find more like those we would do them all day. Unfortunately, as I mentioned earlier, there’s really not a lot in the pipeline right now. So as we move through the year if we don’t find the more appealing acquisition targets, I think we’re going to have to look very seriously at returning cash to shareholders. I would suspect it would be likely that we would do that by the end of the year if we don’t find any additional acquisitions.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: You sort of answered the question on IMU but what was the ASP in wholesale?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Wholesale, it’s different obviously for the different divisions but it was mid to high singles. Scott Krasik – BB&T Capital Markets: Then on the retail side you’ve said that AUR was up double digits, were your transactions roughly flat or were they up as well?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

No, units were roughly flat.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Susan Sansbury – Miller Tabak & Co, LLC. Susan Sansbury – Miller Tabak & Co, LLC.: Going back to sourcing costs, do you have any insights in to what the pressure is going to be in 2011?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

I think it’s a little bit too early to say. Again, we’re sort of baking in about a 5% increase for the back half of 2010. Beyond that I think it’s very tough, it would just be speculation, it’s very tough to say. Obviously, a very large unknown factor is what’s going to happen with the currency. Susan Sansbury – Miller Tabak & Co, LLC.: When do you expect to have some insight for sourcing pressure in 2010? After fall?

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Yes, I think we’re still about four or five months away of having a sense of that.

Operator

Operator

At this time there are no further questions. I’ll turn the conference back over for any additional or closing remarks.

Edward R. Rosenfeld

Management

Thanks very much for joining us on the call. We look forward to speaking to you in three months.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today’s teleconference. Thank you all for joining.