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Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Mon, Apr 29, 2013

$66.74

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Transcript

Sung Hun Yu

Management

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Yu Sung Hun, head of the IR team at Shinhan Financial Group. I would like to thank the investors and analysts for joining us despite their busy schedule. We'll now begin the earnings call for the Q1 of 2013 for Shinhan Financial Group. We have Vice President Choi Buhmsoo, who's responsible for the strategy; and we also have Vice President Min Jung Kee, responsible for the financials. And we also have Mr. Jang Dong-ki, the head of the financial management team with us. Vice President Min, Jung Kee is going to give us descriptions, explanations on the results of Q1. And then we will have questions and answers session. We'll now invite Vice President Min to give us the report on the earnings of Q1.

Jung Kee Min

Management

Good afternoon. I am Jung Kee Min, the CFO of Shinhan Financial Group. First of all, I would like to extend my gratitude to the investors, analysts and journalists in and out of Korea for listening in to the 2013 Q1 Shinhan Financial Group earnings release. I would now like to cover the major highlights of Shinhan Financial Group's Q1 business performance. Let me elaborate on the group's income on Page 6. Shinhan Financial Group's 2013 Q1 net income posted KRW 481.3 billion. The group's major income-generating interest income, due to the NIM drop and a sluggish loan growth, went down 9.3% Y-o-Y and at 5.0% Q-o-Q, respectively. Noninterest income fell 13% year-on-year with decrease in gains on security sales. Compared to the previous quarters, with the absence of one-off loss factors, including losses from NPL sales and derivative CVA, there was a 94.7% increase in noninterest income Q-o-Q. SG&A went up 3.6% Y-o-Y, showing appropriate growth trends compared to the previous quarter with the overall cost falling following the absence of efforts to save cost, including the voluntary retirement plan, SG&A went down 6.2% Q-o-Q. Credit cost in Q1, due to one-off factors, showed a different trend compared to the previous quarters and went up 50.1% and 20.2% Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q, respectively, going against the previous quarterly trends. With the Shiksan [ph] quarter collective loan delinquency prolongation, KRW 71.5 billion of additional provisioning was fully recognized. Additional provisioning took place for certain companies under court receivership, including SunStar and also regarding the STX Shipbuilding voluntary agreement. In the case of card, additional credit cost went up due to a decrease in recovery from written-off assets and additional provisioning for recognition for long-term delinquent loans. Q1 business performance was different from the previous first quarter result in the past because…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question from Hanwha Investment & Securities, Mr. Shim Kyu-sun. Kyu-sun Shim - HI Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., Research Division: Yes, I'm Shim Kyu-sun from Hanwha Securities. I have a couple of questions. First, your margin this quarter has been squeezed. So can you give us your quarterly margin forecast, and when do you think the margin will be stabilized? Secondly is for the one-off factors, and I couldn't catch what you said. Can you actually categorize it into costs and expenses for income and expenses? And I think that we have a lot of asset growth this year. So can you give us some background information?

Unknown Executive

Analyst · Dongbu Securities. Mr. Lee

Thank you for your questions. Regarding your first question for the NIM, net interest margin, well, I will speak for the bank. In Q1, NIM for Shinhan Bank posted 1.78%. Compared to the previous quarter, 7 bps went down. The major factors behind this was because of the funding and lending. And, I think, currently, the margin squeeze was affected by the base rate cut last year. So this has been impacting us in the first quarter as well. Regarding the monthly margin, fortunately, 1.79% in January and 1.78% in February, 1.76% in March. So you can see that on a monthly basis, the margin decline is not accelerating. If it was accelerating, we would have been more concerned with the NIM decline. But I believe that the cost ratio of the funding -- if we could actually improve this for the funding cost, then the margin could be stabilized going forward. Regarding our LDR, conventionally, it was 97% to 99%. But as of end March of Q1, it's 96.6%. It has gone down to the 96% range. In -- if we push up 1 percentage point of the LDR, then our margin will be pushed up by 2 bp. We believe that this will be possible. Accordingly, regarding Q2 and Q3, if we actually slow down the falling margin, then we believe that the decline will not be steep. When we made our business plans for this year, we believed that the base interest rate will go up by 25 bp at least in the first quarter -- will go down by 25 bp in the first quarter or in the first half of this year. And we believe that if this happens, then the margin could be stabilized. To answer your second question regarding the one-off factors, in…

Operator

Operator

So we'll now take a second question. And the second question is from Mr. Lee Byung Gun of Dongbu Securities. Mr. Lee?

Byung Gun Lee - Dongbu Securities Co., Ltd., Research Division

Analyst · Dongbu Securities. Mr. Lee

I have 2 questions. Question number one is this. You talked about NIM, but I have bit of concerns. Compared to other financial banks that have presented their earnings, it seems that in terms of funding that Shinhan did quite well, but when in comes to lending rate, I think that you have the lending rate decreased 5 bp more than other financial groups. But then your assets did not grow that much either. So I have to say there is another reason for a decline in the lending rate more than other financial groups. So if you could talk about that. And second, it seems that for the Shinhan Card, before -- that in the bank, you had one-off items. So we were expecting to see the decrease in the income. But the Shinhan Card, compared to other credit card companies, while the provisioning increased for them -- and so the investors are worried about this increase and provisioning for the bad debts -- or just the increase in bad debt. So could you also give us some forecast about the bad debt trend for the Shinhan Card?

Unknown Executive

Analyst · Dongbu Securities. Mr. Lee

And related to margin, if I make additional explanation, yes, it's true. When it comes to lending, there were some pressure in terms of lending rates and there are 2 reasons. And one is that in Q1, if you look at the bank, well, the loan assets increased by KRW 855 billion. So compared to the end of last year, it's an increase of 0.9%. However, if you look at the details of this growth, well, reasonably -- well, our lending to the SOHO, which -- the corporate sector, has been increasing. And in Q1, SOHO lending grew by 2.2%. And this growth is -- well, the margin is decreasing because of fierce competition. So there is this competition factor. And the second reason is this. As we grow, we have been growing, centering on a rather higher risk of customers. So that could bring -- see an improvement in margins. But now -- we are now focused on the SOHO customers with the lower risks. And so that will be leading the increase in our assets. But if you look at the risks for the mortgage, it's decreasing. The mortgage loans, that's decreasing. However, the high-quality individuals -- the loans to these individuals, well, we'll have a continued increase. But because of competition, we've seen the squeezed margins. So the margin, despite the growth, has not been able to improve significantly. So that is the current circumstances. And as for your second question, I think that was related to the Shinhan credit card. That was the bad debt cost. It was about KRW 86.7 billion in Q1. That was an increase from the previous quarter. But I think we have to look at 2 things here. That is the delinquency rate. So for Q1, the delinquency rate is about…

Operator

Operator

Next question from Standard Chartered Securities, Im Gi Hun [ph] . Mr. Lee [ph] ?

Seong-Jin Kim - Standard Chartered Bank Korea Ltd

Analyst

I am actually Kim Jin-Seong, sorry. I have 2 questions. First, regarding SME loans, you have seen some growth comparatively. Is it because of reclassifications? Or is it just a 2.2% increase? I know that although you target SMEs that are quite sound, on a long-term basis, if SME loans increase and if collateral loans decrease, then maybe the margins will improve. So it would -- should have helped the margin, but I haven't seen those movements. Is this a one-off phenomenon or do you think this will continue? Secondly is for the collective loans. Many other banks had issues and they were collateralized or securitized. So they did not have a lot of provisioning. But I see that for Shinhan -- I know that you have a conservative position, but your amount of provisioning is quite sizable. So can you give us background information regarding this? Do you have any possibilities of this being written back? And can you give us some forecast for the delinquencies, what will happen going forward?

Jung Kee Min

Management

Regarding the SME loans, as was mentioned by Mr. Kim, for SMEs, strategically, we are continuing to extend SME loans. So this is a part of our strategy going forward. For your information, last year, in the SOHO category, there was 9.7% growth last year. And the year before last year, in 2011, there was 14% growth for SOHOs. Accordingly, in Q1, in the case of SOHO, it's 2.2% growth. So if we just calculate with this on a yearly basis, this is a 9% growth trend on an annualized basis. This year we haven't had any major changes in our strategy to extend more loans to SOHOs, but we're trying to maintain our asset quality, and for those borrowers who, we believe, will have more demand for our loans, well, we will provide the loans to them. You also asked about this helping the margin, but regarding the mortgage loans, if we compare this to the mortgage loans, it does not help the margin much. However, in the corporate side, as was mentioned before, it has the highest margin in this category, as was mentioned in my statements in the beginning, because of heated competition. And in the case of Shinhan, when we look at the industry standards, we have a high concentration in several sectors, including real estate lease or real estate rental. Secondly is wholesale and retail and manufacturing, and next is lodging and restaurants. So we have seen growth in these 4 categories. When we look into these categories in more detail, other banks are accelerating growth in these categories as well. So that is why we are seeing the margins squeezed down slightly.

Unknown Executive

Analyst · Dongbu Securities. Mr. Lee

And about the collective loans, as for the collective loans to the Shiksan zone, I've started introduction of IFRS. The calculation method for the bad debts have changed. Actually, it has become more rigid. Well, if we -- in the past, we could proactively accumulate provisions for the bad debt in anticipation of the bad debt. However, at the point of 10th month of delinquency is when we start cumulative provisioning. So that's why we are -- cumulative provisioning of about KRW 30 billion per quarter. And as for the loans for the Shiksan zone, I think that there is some sort of preservation of the loans or the bonds. So that does not help. It's collateralized. And for the Shiksan zone, it's about -- the cumulative provisioning is about KRW 71.5 billion. And we're trying to sell off step-by-step this year. So it may be in Q1, we -- so we expect this about 40% to 50% of the profit we accumulated in Q1 to be written back or returned. And as for the Shinhan Bank, the collective loan is about KRW 5.6 trillion. And the delinquency rate -- most of the delinquency rate comes from the Shiksan zone. So the -- excluding that, the delinquency for the Shinhan Bank is not that large. So for the Shinhan Financial Group, in Q1, the credit cost is about 78 basis point, and one-off is the 71.5 billion of -- from -- excuse me, bp from the Shiksan zone. And the remaining is about 65 bp. So -- but that is similar to our average for the past 5, 6 years. Of course, we'd like to see lower numbers, but large corporates -- many large companies are experiencing some difficulties. So for this year, we may have the same numbers as the average for the past 5, 6 years. And so I don't see much improvements being made in terms of collective loans.

Operator

Operator

Next question from KB investment, Mr. Shim Hyun Soo. Mr. Shim? Hyun Soo Shim - KB Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., Research Division: Yes. Regarding the conforming loans, after Q2, what is the limit that you have remaining? I'm also curious about the conforming loans that probably have been securitized and taken off your books. But taking into account the limitations and the securitizations, can you give us the growth forecast for conforming loans? And secondly, could you give us a -- some background information about your asset growth strategy going 3 years into the future, some guidance? And we had the impairment characteristics for Q1, and it seems that the profit for credit card should be on a climax for this quarter. So can you give us some background information regarding this?

Unknown Executive

Analyst · Dongbu Securities. Mr. Lee

Regarding the conforming loans, currently, as of end March, conforming loans' balance stands at KRW 690.1 billion. Securitized portion is KRW 276.1 billion. Accordingly, for the handled balance, as of end March 2013, it's KRW 218.5 billion. The limit for this year that we received is KRW 1.3 trillion. We haven't been very active in growing our conforming loans because even if -- and if there is loan demand, then we will try to have stable growth in conforming loans. Regarding the total securitized amount for this year, it may reach KRW 1 trillion at the maximum. That was our forecast. With this background, when we look at the current growth trend seen from our total loans, 2% to 3% growth for conforming loans probably is expected. Regarding corporate loans that you mentioned, it includes large corporations and SMEs. And in the case of corporate loans, 3% to 4% of growth, we believe, will be possible. We had the comprehensive business plan for 2013 and regarding our loans at KRW 1 growth, we believe that it will fall along the same lines. Regarding credit card, you were right. It is true that there was the merchant fee revision and cut. So it is true that our -- that income will be squeezed. And on an annualized basis, the merchant fees, if it is 1.85% fee ratio, then on an annualized basis, we thought that it would amount to KRW 100 billion to KRW 120 billion. But in Q1, it is actually surpassing KRW 30 billion on a pretax basis. So after taxes, we believe that our burden for each year will be about KRW 100 billion. Regarding our P&L, as was mentioned in Q1 for Shinhan Card, we will -- we had very conservative provisioning and the business days in Q1 were not numerous, so on a revenue basis, KRW 32 trillion. So in Q1, if we take into consideration those factors, in Q2 and Q3, if we have normal operations, then we would not have a lot of impact to our P&L. We will have some improvements. In the case of Shinhan Card, we could preserve some of the income because we could sell off our Visa card shares. As you're well aware, in Q1, we were supposed -- we were going to sell only more than threefold, the 260,000 shares we sold off. So if we sell off the remaining Visa shares, then Shinhan Card income will be maintained at a more stabilized pace. It seems that there are no further questions waiting for us. So with this, we would like to conclude the earnings release for Q1 of 2013. So once again, I'd like to thank you for joining us.