Katie Fogertey
Analyst · Piper Sandler
Great. Thank you so much, Randy. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you to the team for such a warm welcome to Shake Shack. I am so excited to be here and contribute to this important growth stage for the Company. I have long admired Shake Shack's deep culinary roots, the willingness to push the limits and elevate flavors. But, I am most impressed by the Company's commitment to investing and training team members and focusing on standing for something good. Randy's comments earlier on the $10 million investment in team members is just a small part of the narrative here. I spent my first week working in the Shacks, spinning shakes, flipping burgers and learning from the team members. I have so much appreciation for the team's inter Shacks and in the home office supporting our Shacks. Our teams are at the core of all that we do, and I am humbled to have the opportunity to work with everyone to continue to pave the way forward. I will now highlight the details of the second quarter and share some color around how the business is performing quarter-to-date. Our results in the second quarter showed a steady and continued improvement of our business with total revenue of $187.5 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 104.2%. Shack sales were $181.5 million, a year-over-year growth of 102.7%. Second quarter average weekly sales were $72,000, exiting the quarter in fiscal June at $74,000, marking the highest level since the pandemic started and up from $64,000 in the first quarter. We show this monthly progression on page 7 of the supplemental materials. Average weekly sales were flat month-on-month at $74,000 in fiscal July. This outperformed our typical seasonality expectations. And the growth here is really twofold. First, our guests began to come back to eat in-Shack that were the hardest hit by the pandemic. While full recovery at certain Shacks will take some time, especially with new uncertainty of rising COVID cases, we view these current dynamics as encouraging. And second, importantly, even as our in-Shack dining sales showed early signs of recovery, we were able to retain a substantial portion of our digital business. I'll go into more detail around digital in a moment. And you can see page 10 of the supplemental materials for more details. Same-Shack sales rose 52.7% year-on-year in the second quarter. They were up 38% in fiscal July compared to up 5.7% in the first quarter. Second quarter traffic grew 61.5% year-on-year, offset by a negative 8.8% price mix. Note that 2020 had a 53rd week, and to normalize for that, our comparable periods for both 2020 and 2019 have been shifted forward one week from the fiscal calendar. This is to show a more like-for-like comparison. We've included an example calendar on page 19 of the supplemental materials. Now, into price mix. Just a reminder here, that is driven by average Shack that has been historically higher in digital channels than in-Shack. So, last year's surge in our digital sales drove a double-digit rise in price mix. Now, with our intact traffic showing signs of a strong recovery and our digital business stabilizing, expect average Shack and consequently, our price mix to return to a more normal level. The offset here the ticket pressure arising from channel shift is higher traffic. Notably though, and as Randy just mentioned, the in-Shack average Shack has also increased in recent periods, with continued strength across all of our channels this year, thanks in part to contributions from menu innovation, cold beverage, in particular. And while our sales continue to recover, we are cognizant that the near-term COVID environment remains uncertain. Using pre-pandemic 2019 sales as one recovery sales level benchmark, our same-Shack sales were about 12% below 2Q '19 levels. While we started the quarter with April sales 15% below 2019 levels, we built on a broad-based recovery each month of the quarter and continue to make headway, ending fiscal June with sales just 11% below 2019 levels, and we are encouraged that we closed fiscal July down 9% from 2019 levels. Recovery in our urban Shacks still presents a greatest opportunity to recapture sales. As we show on page 8 of the supplemental materials, our urban markets in particular were boosted by foot traffic, events, the beginning of some office workers returning and a gradual reemergence of domestic tourism, while limited international tourism remains an overhang. We are pleased to announce that we recently reopened two Shacks that have been closed since last year. So, that Union Station in Washington D.C. and Grand Central Terminal in New York, these two Shacks depend on urban transit. We expect that they're going to take some time to recover, they'll probably weigh on results in the interim, but it was important to get them reopened and operating as we head into the fall and winter. In addition, I think it's important to note some regions that are performing exceptionally well across many formats and channels as it should help you to understand the evolving geographic concentration of Shake Shack and how that impacts the recovery. Our regional details can be found on page 9 of the supplemental materials. In the Southeast region, and in particular, Texas, same-Shack sales are now above 2019 levels. We see our momentum here as an example of our potential when we build density and awareness in newer markets and provides us with a more balanced geographic footprint. These markets represent growth opportunities for Shake Shack across a variety of formats. The other key highlight of the quarter has been our digital sales retention, even as in-Shack dining showed signs of recovery. Digital sales made up 47% of our Shack sales in the second quarter. And as Randy mentioned, we are pleased to have retained approximately 80% of our digital channel sales in fiscal June compared to fiscal January 2021 when our digital sales peaked. When we study our digital guests, we find they continue to show higher loyalty and frequency as well as a greater average Shack than our traditional in-Shack guests. Therefore, we are focused on acquiring more first-time guests in our digital ecosystem. In the quarter, we grew our first-time digital guest base by 16.7% to 2.8 million acquired since mid-March 2020. We look forward to building on a strong foundation by focusing on innovative ways to elevate the digital guest experience. It's important to note that we are still in the early days of this digital evolution of our business, but we are encouraged by consumers' growing demand for our products to order ahead and delivery. At the end of Q2, we took some important steps to improve the profitability on third-party delivery by charging a 10% premium to in-Shack pricing. This is a step up from the 5% premium we started charging in February. We did maintain in-Shack price parity on our owned app and web channels. Now, on to sales guidance, which we outlined in more details on page 16 of the supplemental materials. Based on its current operating environment, we are guiding to total revenue in the third quarter to be $194 million to $200 million with Shack sales of $188 million to $193 million. This assumes a positive continuation of the trends that I just discussed in both, urban and suburban markets, plus the benefit from new Shacks openings and also the reopening of Grand Central and Union Station. We expect our same-Shack sales to increase in the mid- to high-20s range for the same period versus 2020. We expect licensed revenue to be between $6 million and $7 million based on the recent recovery in some regions, balanced with continued uncertainty in the global rate of recovery and regional COVID restrictions. Within this guidance is the assumption of no new material sales impacting COVID pressures and a general positive business environment. But, if we were to see a slower return to office and travel, these numbers could be impacted. Moving on to profitability. Shack level operating margin was 19.2% in the second quarter. This is our highest margin since COVID began and is a 420 basis-point increase versus the first quarter. Our second quarter margin was largely driven by sharper-than-expected recovery of in-Shack traffic as well as strong Shack app and web digital retention. As a reminder, our average Shacks are highest in this channel. Food and paper costs in the second quarter were 30.3% of Shack sales, an increase of 70 basis points from the first quarter, driven primarily by beef inflation. We expect to realize the impact of chicken inflation in the second half of the year as we roll out a beneficial locked-in pricing achieved in the first half. These costs are expected to remain somewhat elevated from the levels we achieved at the outset of the year. The net effect here is that we expect 3Q COGS to remain at a similarly elevated range that we saw in Q2. Labor costs in the second quarter were 29% of Shack sales, a decrease of 180 basis points versus the first quarter due to sales leverage. However, given industry-wide staffing challenges and our significant growth goals, we are making meaningful investments in our teams, and we expect wage inflation in the second half of 2021 to be in the high single-digit range. In line with our prior guidance, we still expect wage inflation for the full year to be in the mid-single-digit range. As we mentioned, these investments are critical to maintaining the strong culture and developing the future leaders we need as we lay the groundwork for all the Shacks that are to come. To counter some of the inflationary pressures I've just mentioned, during the fourth quarter, we are planning on raising our menu prices by between 3% and 3.5% through a combination of various price tiers and digital pricing initiatives. This is higher than the approximately 2% menu price we have historically taken at the end of most calendar years, and we'll be evaluating the need for further price increases that might go into effect in 2022, depending on how the cost landscape evolves through the rest of the year. Other operating expenses were 13.4% of Shack sales in the second quarter, a 200 basis-point decrease from the first quarter due to leverage across fixed expenses and decreased delivery commissions as overall delivery as a percentage of sales moderated. However, we expect in-Shack sales to continue to recover, and we will bring back certain related expenses that were cut in the last year. Therefore, we expect other operating expenses to slightly increase sequentially in the third quarter. Occupancy costs in the second quarter were 8.2% of Shack sales, a 100-point decrease from the first quarter due to sales leverage. We expect occupancy costs in the third quarter to be in a similar range as the second quarter levels. Bigger picture, our margin recovery is dependent on several things, including the level of commodity and wage pressures as well as the sales recovery in our highest volume Shacks. As we look to the rest of the year, we expect the recent investment in our teams to weigh on the very strong flow-through that we realized in the second quarter. That being said, we believe these investments are strategic and place the Company on a stronger path forward as sales fully recover. With Shack sales of $188 million to $193 million in the third quarter, we expect Shack level operating margin to be between 15% and 17%. We outlined this in more detail on pages 16 and 17 of our supplemental materials. G&A expense in the second quarter was $20.4 million, including $2 million of equity-based compensation and other noncash items. We firmly believe that we must continue to invest in people, technology and marketing to support our recovery and open our robust pipeline of new Shacks. As such, we are slightly raising our 2021 G&A guidance to be between $86 million and $88 million as we continue to invest in the infrastructure needed to accelerate our long-term growth. Within G&A, our equity-based compensation is expected to be about $8 million. Preopening expense in the second quarter was $2.3 million, a decrease from $3.6 million in the first quarter. At this point in the year, we -- and as we execute on our development pipeline plan, we expect full year 2021 preopening expense to be between $13 million and $14 million. This is below prior guidance. On an adjusted pro forma basis, we reported a net gain of $2.4 million or $0.05 per fully exchanged and diluted share. Excluding the tax impact of stock-based compensation, our adjusted pro forma tax rate during the second quarter was 27%. A full reconciliation of our tax rate can be found in the appendix of our supplemental materials. Similar to previous quarters, we will not issue specific 2021 tax guidance at this time, given the continued uncertainty for the rest of the year and timing of recovery. However, in normal operating environment, our adjusted pro forma tax rate, excluding the impact of stock-based compensation, is expected to be between 26% and 28%, in line with 2020 levels. The balance sheet remains in a very strong position to support the growth opportunity ahead of us, and we ended the quarter with $420.2 million in cash and marketable securities. As we continue to grow, we remain cautious and aware of the challenges ahead, both globally and domestically. But despite this, we are confident that our continued investment in people and innovation across our business model places us in a stronger position as the business recovers. And with that, I'll turn it back to Randy.