Michael Benstock
Analyst · Barrington Research
Right. So I think the good news is as unpredictable as it is. Remember, we have a lot of feet on the ground, and we're having our own option fully staffed in Hangzhou, China. And many of our people are actually working from home right now, we asked them not to travel, but we have a full staff working and staying in touch with all of our suppliers there and so on. So there's 2 parts in this question. Do we, have we seen any other new business opportunities as a result of this, we're certainly getting a lot of phone calls because of this.Our first response to anybody calling us, who's not done business with us before, is we have an obligation to our existing customer base, and that's our first obligation. People give us business, people have given us contracts. We're going to take care of them first. So we're in the process of evaluating what the effects would be of one week more shutdown, 2 weeks more shutdown, 3 and so on. Factories coming back not at 100% capacity, but at 90%, 60% and 50%. You've never seen more spreadsheets in your life. But we have a very, very good handle on where we stand.And fortunately, with the help of our folks in China and the, particularly the BAMKO people who really have their fingers on the pulse probably better from a standpoint of what's really happening on the ground in China. We feel like we've got a very good handle on it. So yes, we're seeing more opportunities come to us. We're going to be very judicious in how we handle those from customers who are not already our customers to make sure that we service our existing customers.Now let's talk about what's happening on the ground there, if you don't mind. I told you we have our office, sourcing office, and that office has been there for many, many years for BAMKO, and we've had people on the ground, even on the uniform side of our business for many years, who are now part of that collective office. Our relationships in China with factory managers and factory owners and the government, it's very, very strong. These are long-term relationships, and some of them are quite personal.We know their families. They know ours. And they, they have met the executives of our company, including me, many, most of these larger suppliers. And when things do get back to normal, we've been assured from the BAMKO side and from the uniform side that we are going to be first in line or one of the first in line to run production through our facilities. Now what production we need? In fourth quarter, less than 12% of our uniform production was actually done in China. So it wasn't significant, and they are not items that we couldn't put somewhere else.So with our redundant strategies, we're not worried about that. What is of more concern are fabrics in China. Our fabrics in China, for the most part, come from every region except Wuhan, and we actually have 1 million Hubei that we're looking at alternative average from other mills right now to replace that because we don't know when they're going to come back to work just to make sure that we're in a redundant position.In addition to that, when you look at our inventories. And we have an obligation in, at least with respect to these contract assets that we keep talking about, to have those on the shelf for our customers. And generally, that's months of inventory sitting on the shelf for our customers for their exclusive use. And that puts us in a pretty unique position. But even behind that, we have taken very, very long positions as we did years ago during the cotton crisis. And part of this is a result of the tariffs and not knowing what would happen with the relationship with China. We've taken some very long positions on fabrics, which are not sitting in China right now for the most part, are sitting in other countries and other factories ready to be sung.So we look at the time line of how long this virus might actually impact Chinese workers coming back to work and be able to make our merchandise. We see it as pretty low risk right now for the near future. Near future, being the next 3 or 4 months, we're going to be okay. Beyond that, the longer this goes on, the longer this could ultimately impact us. We feel pretty good until the end of this year. I mean, quite frankly, what might we have to do in the meantime, if this extends beyond, let's say, April or May, is we might have to airfreight some fabrics once these mills get going. And keep in mind that most of the textile mills are not very labor-intensive.So they don't have to have a lot of people back to work for these, for the textile mills to get going as opposed to sold factories, which we don't have much going on from that standpoint anyway in China. So we're feeling pretty good. I mean there could be some logistical issues we're looking at. Trucks are finding it difficult to travel through China right now to deliver great fabric to a dye house because truck drivers are being stopped on the road multiple times there for the temperature taking and so on. We're hearing all these stories. It's not anecdotal. It's the people on the ground telling us what's actually happening. So, but we are on top of this.We feel the impact will be less for our uniform business than it might be for some of our competitors, in fact. When we look at BAMKO, most of BAMKO's production is dependent on China. Now BAMKO did, a couple of years ago, follow our lead. And went and started sourcing elsewhere in Bangladesh, Vietnam, various other places and have moved a fair amount of the sourcing. But remember, their business also changed. When we bought BAMKO, they were 70% customized merchandise. And today, they're 35%. That's half of what it was when we bought them. And that's a result of their growth has been primarily in the standard promotional products business with all the reps they've taken on.And our goal was to ultimately convert those reps to sell and customized merchandise, which is at a higher gross margin and so on. But that hasn't quite happened yet. So we're in a pretty good position on 65% of our merchandise to keep buying from U.S. suppliers who supply these items, which are primarily sourced in China, by the way until they run out. And the good news is that we have very strong relationships with those U.S. suppliers. Again, they have assured us that they will take care of our needs. They have assured us because most of them loaded up on inventory prior to Chinese New Year anyway, knowing there would be an interruption that they are, they have strong inventories. And it may, usually, they would they would build up their inventories, and we would believe those off over the period through the next year.Those inventories might be blowed up in a shorter amount of time, but we feel like they will be sufficient to take care of our needs. We have lost a small amount of business at BAMKO. To put it out there, there were events that we needed to deliver in the next month or so that we will not be able to deliver, and we are working on alternatives with those customers. Some of that business will just get deferred to another period of time. Some of it has to do with budgets that won't be spent but maybe spent later in the year. Some of that is business that will not repeat itself. It doesn't mean we've lost a customer. They certainly understand the position we're in, which is, it is what it is.Now keep in mind, as well, with respect to CID, which we didn't talk about, that CID has very large inventories. And while this could affect slightly CID's normal rollout of fall season, which we would be selling in, which we'd be shipping in June and July. It's a very small part. The newer items of fall season is a very small part of their business. They are flushed with inventory on our legacy products. Maybe even too much, and we've actually been trying to reduce that over time. But I'm glad we weren't successful earlier in reducing it because, quite frankly, it's a little bit of a godsend. I don't know. I can't imagine any competitor having more inventory than we have sitting there right now in terms of how it matches up to our revenue. We should be able to take care of customers.Our customers and our competitors' customers over these next few months very, very nicely. So there's a lot going on here. I don't believe in any of our businesses that are, that have the kind of strength on the ground that we have in China, that have the systems that follow this as we do to anticipate where the outages might come from and to be able to respond from them proactively and very early in the process. And I mentioned before, we've gone through crisis before the cotton crisis in 2010 was pretty devastating to a lot of uniform manufacturers.We, in fact, picked up market share during that time. That was a great turning point for the company being able to sign up customers who were dealing with competitors who didn't have the resources we have. So we're feeling good. And that's the long answer. I hope I answered most of the questions related to that, but if you have any more, let me know.