Ron Kruszewski
Analyst · JMP. Your line is open
Thanks Jim. Good afternoon to everyone and thank you for taking the time to listen to our third quarter 2017 results. This afternoon we issued a press release with our third quarter results and we posted a slide deck on our website. I am very pleased with the strength of our quarter. We generated net revenue of $721 million, the second best quarter in our history and down less than $5 million from our record results in the second quarter of this year. After adjusting for roughly $13 million of nonrecurring or deal related charges, we generated non-GAAP pretax income of $121 million, net income of $74 million and EPS of $0.89 as increased global wealth management revenue was offset by a modest sequential decline in our institutional businesses. Also on a non-GAAP basis, annualized returns on common equity and tangible common equity were nearly 11% and 18%, respectfully. GAAP diluted EPS came in at $0.79. In addition to the strength of our revenue in the quarter, our non-GAAP comp ratio and operating ratio declined sequentially to 61.1% for comp and 22.1% for non-comp operating expenses, respectfully and helped drive our non-GAAP pretax margins to nearly a seven-year high of 16.8%. On the capital front, we issued $225 million of 30 years senior notes to take advantage of attractive yields and to round out our capital structure and we announced and paid a regular quarterly dividend during the quarter, giving us another way to return capital to our shareholders. This morning, we announced acquisition of Ziegler Wealth Management. This was relatively small transaction, so we didn't disclose the transaction purchase price. However, this is an important transaction as it adds nearly 60 financial advisors and approximately $5 billion of client assets under management to our platform. Said another way, this is essentially just another form of recruiting for us. We expect the transaction to be mildly accretive. In speaking to the culture at Ziegler, I am pleased that as of this morning, 100% of the advisors who were offered continuation agreements with Stifel have agreed and have signed on to be part of the Stifel family. With that, let me go through in more detail our business lines and segment results. Looking at the next slide, I will walk through the general revenue trends that we experienced in our business during the quarter and I will get into more specific detail in the institutional group and global wealth management in later slides. Overall, our total net revenue increased 12% from the third quarter of 2016 driven by increases in investment banking, asset management and net interest income. These increases were offset by weaknesses in institutional brokerage. I would note the weakness in institutional brokerage is being experienced industry-wide. Our ability to grow revenues despite low market volatility and the continued slide in market volumes is a direct result of our strategy to invest and focus on businesses such as advisory, fee based accounts and private client and the growth in our bank balance sheet. I have noted in the past that the composition of our revenues over the past six years has changed and the results on this slide indicate how we are moving to a greater percentage of fee-based and balance sheet driven revenue streams than in the past. These recurring revenue streams accounted for nearly 39% of our total net revenue during the quarter, up from only 32% in the same period a year ago. Additionally, these revenues increased nearly 40% over that same timeframe. The benefits to these revenue streams is that that they add greater consistency to our results and in the case of our bank generate higher margins. Our year-to-date revenues totaled more than $2.1 billion, up 11%. Moving on to the next slide. We take a closer look at our investment banking brokerage and asset management revenue. With respect investment banking, we recorded our second best quarter in history. As compared to the prior quarter, investment banking increased 26% and was down less than 2% from the record we posted in the previous quarter. Our advisory business was very strong for the second straight quarter and remains healthy going into the fourth quarter. Our results were broad-based as we did benefit from any outside fees in the quarter and we had solid results from a number of verticals, including FIG and technology as well as a number of private placement closings. Revenue from FIG, which is our largest vertical, continued to be strong so far this year, as KBW has advised on 10 of the top 12 deals in the banking space. Technology continues to be another strong vertical for us. I am very pleased with the traction we are getting in both industrial and energy as these are growth areas that we have focused on recently. I would note that our advisory revenue for the first nine months of 2017 is $237 million and is up 19% year-over-year. This reflects the impact of the investments we have made in this business. Our capital raising business increased 37% from the prior year quarter. The increase was primarily the result of strong equity underwriting revenues. Our public finance business remains strong, but was down from the record performance in the second quarter of 2017. Our equity underwriting revenue remained solid increased more than 100% year-over-year as the tone of the new issue market continues to improve despite industry-wide volume and fee pools in the quarter that were relatively flat year-over-year. Our revenues declined sequentially as activity in FIG in healthcare remains solid but pulled back from second quarter levels while technology revenues were more similar to the first quarter levels. I am also pleased that our London office continues to gain traction as they contributed a significant fee to our equity business in the quarter. Looking at debt underwriting. We generated an 8% year-over-year increase despite the fact that market volumes in public finance have declined from record 2016 levels due primarily to lower refunding activity. We continue to be number one ranked nationally in the number of senior managed negotiated new issues ending the quarter with 12.3% market share. Looking at our brokerage revenue. This business continues to face industry-wide headwinds in the quarter as sequential declines in our revenues were relatively in line with overall market volume declines. Global wealth management brokerage revenues declined by 6% sequentially due to lower activity levels of mutual funds and corporate debt as well as typically seasonally lower activity levels in the summer months. I would also note that we continue to see a shift from brokerage to advisory fee revenue. In institutional equity brokerage, our revenues continue to be negatively impacted by historic lows and volatility, depressed volumes, the trends toward passive investing and the seasonal slowness of the summer months. Our sequential decline of 11% was relatively in line with the nearly 12% decline in industry-wide equity average daily volumes. The story is similar for our fixed income brokerage business as the industry continues to face the headwinds that included low interest rate, a flattening yield curve and low volatility. Our sequential revenue declined 6%, which was relatively in line with the 5% sequential decline in average daily volume as reported on trades. Lastly, we continue to see our asset management revenue increase as a result of strong growth in our client fee-based accounts and to a lesser extent from the increase in fed funds rate that benefits our client cash deposits held at third-party banks. As noted, this growth in fee-based revenues in our wealth management business has been an ongoing trend as this increase mirrors slowdown in brokerage activity in this segment as investors move toward fee-based accounts. The next slide focuses on our growth in net interest income, which has increased nearly 81% year-over-year as we continue to grow our bank balance sheet and improve our net interest margin. Total consolidated assets increased to $20.5 billion. We grew our average interest-earning assets at our bank by nearly $800 million sequentially, which increased our firm-wide average interest earning assets by 5% to nearly $17 billion. Along with the continued increase in our interest earning assets, our net interest margin has continued to improve as a result of increases in the fed funds rate, as well as improvements in the yields in our loan portfolio. We have included a table on the slide to illustrate the yields on our assets and liabilities. As you could see, the growth in our commercial loans and security based loans have been significant drivers of the year-over-year and sequential growth in asset yield and we believe this trend will continue. On the liability side, you can also see the increased cost to deposits as they doubled sequentially to 15 basis points. Last quarter, we commented that the bank net interest margins would likely be flat. However, I am please to note that it increased three basis points to 280 basis points due to the June rate increase as well as additional interest accretion resulting from the refinancing activity in our CLO portfolio. As a result of the pickup in net interest margin of the bank and increased margin rates, our firm-wide net interest margin was 240 basis points. In terms of expectations for the bank and consolidated NIM in the fourth quarter, we would expect it to be flat to up five basis points. In the next few slides, I will touch on the quarterly results from our two primary segments. So starting with global wealth management. I am pleased to report another record quarter for wealth management as net revenues were up modestly from the prior quarter's record results and increased 16% from the prior year quarter. Looking at the quarter sequentially, net revenue growth was driven by record asset management service fees as well as record net interest income. The growth in asset management and net interest income more than offset sequential decline in brokerage due, as I said, to slower seasonal activity as well as a shift toward fee-based accounts. As a result of this shift to asset management revenue, we continue to see fee-based asset growth outpace overall client asset growth. We ended the third quarter with record fee-based assets of $83 billion, up 5% sequentially versus record total client assets which were up 3% sequentially to $265 billion. As our fee-based accounts are priced off of trailing quarter and asset levels, a 5% increase in fee-based assets should give us another solid base for fourth quarter asset management revenues. Net interest income rose 8% sequentially as net interest margin and average interest-earning assets of the bank increased from second quarter levels and continue to be a significant driver on revenue and earnings growth. The continued growth in revenues and asset management and the bank continues to benefit global wealth management's cost and operating expense ratios. The comp ratio declined 610 basis points year-over-year and our operating expense ratio declined 170 basis points, which resulted in a pretax margin of nearly 36%. On the next slide, we will take a closer look at Stifel Bank & Trust. Total bank assets increased to approximately $14.55 billion as average interest earning assets increased nearly $800 million sequentially to $13.9 billion. Bank loans increased 10% sequentially. The majority of loan growth was from commercial and motor mortgage lending. I would note that most of the growth in our commercial portfolio was to existing clients. Investment securities increased 7% sequentially and the growth in the quarter was consistent with our long term strategy of emphasizing high credit quality, short duration assets that provide attractive risk adjusted returns. As such, the portfolio's average yield was 262 basis points and the duration was approximately 1.5 years. The provision for loan loss expense in the quarter increased to approximately $8 million, as a higher sequential provision expense was due to increased loan growth in the quarter. Our allowance for loan loss as a percentage of loans increased sequentially to 92 basis points, again due to growth in our C&I loans. Overall, our credit metrics remain strong as the nonperforming asset ratio was 15 basis points, which was flat sequentially. I commented on our last earnings call that we raised the yield we pay on client assets by an average of approximately 10 basis points at the end of June as yields on money market funds increased and deposit betas picked during the second quarter. We did not see further competitive pressure to raise our deposits during the third quarter. The current market environment faces headwinds such as tighter credit spreads in commercial related loan and securities as well as a flatter yield curve. The negative implication for our bank is yield compression as we reinvest in short duration, high quality assets. However, we continue to generate meaningful after-tax return on assets of approximately 130 basis points and our lending capacity has expanded in all key lending areas, resulting in higher incremental yield compared to the yields in our securities portfolio. Moving to the next slide. In our institutional business, it increased 2% from the prior year and was down 4% sequentially. Our equities business benefited for the second straight quarter from strong advisory revenue that was up 17% sequentially. Our advisory business remains healthy going into the fourth quarter. Overall, our current pipeline is similar to where it was at the end of last quarter and we continue to believe that barring any material changes in the market, that advisory revenue in the second half of the year will exceed the first half of 2017. For equity underwriting, we feel good about our pipeline going into the fourth quarter and heading into 2018. We continue to see solid interest in capital raising particularly in financials and technology. That said, I would remind everyone from last year's fourth quarter, we saw a substantial pickup following the November election. So the year-over-year comparison will be much more difficult than in prior quarters of this year. Our fixed income business overall slowed sequentially following a very strong second quarter in public finance. While debt capital raising was down sequentially, we would expect to see improvement in the fourth quarter given the seasonal trends in this business. The outlook for the business remains good but changes in interest rates could impact activity levels and overall industry volumes continue to lag 2016 levels. Our institutional brokerage revenue for both equities and fixed income will continue to be driven by market conditions that are still very challenging. While the yield curve is steep than some in the past few weeks, volatility remain near its five year low and industry-wide equity average daily volumes so far in the fourth quarter are down sequentially and year-over-year. While industry-wide fixed income volumes have improved modestly quarter-to-date, market conditions remain challenging. Although we continue look for some improvement in the business in the fourth quarter, the primary drivers of the improvement in this business are changes to the market conditions, which were in fact the headwinds for the industry in 2017. Overall, I am pleased with our institutional business as our diversified business model continues to show strong revenues despite less than ideal market conditions for certain businesses. Our trailing 12 month revenues increased despite significant decline in institutional brokerage revenue. This not only illustrates the strength of our investment banking business but our ability to perform in various market conditions. Our institutional revenues in the quarter were third strongest but a sequential decline from our record second quarter at a modest negative impact on the segment comp ratio, which came in at 60%, up 40 basis points sequentially. Although our comp ratio was up in the quarter, our operating expense ratio continued to decline reaching 20.5% which is the lowest level since the third quarter of 2012. This resulted in institutional operating margins of nearly 20%, up 30 basis points sequentially. Moving on to our balance sheet. We finished the quarter at $20.5 billion in assets on our consolidated balance sheet, up roughly $1 billion from the prior quarter levels due primarily to growth at Stifel Bank. As I said last quarter, although we expect that our annual balance sheet growth should approximately $2 billion, our growth will not necessarily be linear growth. Growth in the first half of the year was tracking slightly below our targeted run rate as we thought market conditions were less attractive. In the third quarter, we were able to opportunistically grow our loan portfolio while continuing to invest in short duration securities. Despite accelerated growth in the third quarter, we continue to believe that an annual run rate of $2 billion is an appropriate way to think about future asset growth as we will continue to focus on generating the best risk-adjusted returns with our capital. At the end of September 2017, our capital ratios were 10.4% for Tier 1 leverage and 20.5% for Tier 1 risk-based capital. Our leverage ratio was up modestly from the second quarter due to stronger retained earnings while our risk-based capital ratio declined due to strong growth in our C&I loan portfolio. As I mentioned earlier, we announced a regular quarterly dividend in August. This gives us another tool to help manage our capital but as you can see from the elevated sequential growth in our balance sheet, this remains an attractive way to deploy our capital given its the best way to focus on generating returns on a risk-adjusted basis. At the end of the quarter, we raised $225 million of 30 years senior notes as we felt it was an opportunistic time to lock in long-term financing at attractive rates and round out our capital structure. In the short term, the most likely use of funding will be continue our bank growth, but longer term this funding gives us added flexibility to enhance existing businesses. Book value of $40.67 increased $1.20 the quarter. The growth was the result of more than $87 million sequential increase in equity. We did not repurchase any shares in the quarter and we currently have just over seven million shares remaining on our existing authorization. Next we move onto the reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP results. On slide 12, we will review our expenses for the quarter and the impact of our non-GAAP adjustments. In the third quarter, we incurred approximately $13 million in merger-related charges primarily related to acquisition related compensation that included Barclays, lease write-downs and severance. At this point we estimate that, barring additional legal or unexpected charges, our remaining pretax non-GAAP charges for 2017 will be approximately $10 million. After these charges, which primarily represent the last of the Barclays acquisition cost, we expect any charges in 2018 to be minimal. In terms of our non-GAAP expense results, they were better than consensus expectations. Our comp ratio of 61.1% continued to decline and was in line with the consensus estimates as we continue to generate revenue growth in our advisory business and in our bank. At this time, we are maintaining our full year comp ratio guidance of 60.5% to 62.5%. Operating expenses, excluding the loan loss provision, were just under $152 million at the lower end of our guidance of $151 million to $158 million. The sequential decrease was due to lower legal, travel and insurance expense. For the fourth quarter, we are maintaining our quarterly operating expense guidance of $151 million to $158 million, excluding the provision for loan losses. But I would note that there is a seasonal impact in the last quarter of every year that could put our operating expenses closer to the top end of the range. Lastly, in terms of share count, fully diluted share increased by nearly 900,000 during the quarter as a higher average share price during the quarter increased the dilutive impact of unvested grants. We did not, as I said, repurchase any shares during the quarter. However, barring any share repurchases or material fluctuations in our share price, we continue to anticipate our year-end diluted share count to be approximately 81 million shares. Now let me give a brief update on some regulatory issues and our interest rate sensitivity. First, MiFID. On October 26, the SEC and European Commission simultaneously published new Q&A and exemptive concerning the new MiFID II framework for inducements. This timely development occurs with the backdrop of a January 3, 2018 implementation date for Europe provides loss from financial market participants. In my view, this no-action is highlighted by two items. First, the SEC's desire not to simply import this regulation to U.S. market. And two, the fact that the exemptive relief applies to MiFID related research expenses. Therefore, this appears to ring fence this issue. That said, our institutional brokerage seems to have been actively meeting with our clients to discuss how this could alter their business and we are in the process of fine-tuning strategies on how to handle any changes the industry will face. We continue to believe that our franchise has the breadth, depth and flexibility to adapt and succeed regardless of how this turns out. With regards to DOL, we continue to monitor developments in Washington. We expect the department's recommended 18 month delay will be made official any day, frankly, this week I believe. We would anticipate seeing the SEC working more closely with the DOL to craft a better proposal that protects investor choice. Just last week, the Treasury Department made similar comments and endorsed the SEC's involvement while also encouraging a delay of this rule. As an industry participant, we look forward to working with the DOL and the SEC on a best interest standard that preserves choice. In terms of rate sensitivity, I mentioned previously that we saw benefit in rates earned on third-party bank sweep deposits that equated to an additional $2 million, $3 million of pretax in our asset management revenues, which was in line with our prior guidance. In regards to future rate hikes, we believe that the deposit beta will be driven by competition but that a greater percentage of future rate hikes will be passed along to deposit holders. Excluding the impact of increased competition, we would expect a similar impact from rate increases to what we experienced in the third quarter. On the next slide, before I open it to questions, I want to talk a little bit about what we have accomplished in the last seven quarters. During 2016, we indicated that we would emphasize the optimization of our existing businesses and that this would lead to an improvement in our margins, a reduction to the non-GAAP differential of GAAP EPS and would generate higher returns on equity. As you can see from the table on this slide, we have accomplished what we said we would in a relatively short period of time. Our annualized third quarter revenue would be up $550 million or 24% from fall 2015 results. We have appropriately leveraged excess capital by growing our balance sheet 54% to $20.5 billion. The increase in revenues and asset that significantly improved our operating leverage as pretax margins have increased from 10% to nearly 17% as we have maintained our expense discipline while growing revenue and our improved margins are not just a result of our bank growth strategy as our institutional margins have improved by 500 basis points despite challenging market conditions in equity and fixed income trading. Our revenue growth and expense management strategies has resulted in significantly higher annualized GAAP and non-GAAP EPS, up 170% and 90%, respectfully and we have followed through on our commitment to reducing the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS. As we have forecast in the past, we expect this to close further by the end of 2017. Lastly, our improved bottomline results has significantly improved our return on common equity and our return on tangible common equity. While I am pleased with these results and the hard work that my colleagues put in to achieve them, we are by no means finished. Given our improved performance, Stifel is in a much stronger position as a company than we were just a few years ago. We will continue to manage our capital with a focus on the best risk-adjusted returns and continue to maintain cost discipline in managing our businesses. In terms of opportunities going forward, we will leverage our growing business to recruit talented professionals in both private client and our institutional businesses, either organically or through acquisitions. Additionally, we will continue to use our capital to further grow our bank, repurchase shares and fund our dividend. As I look forward into the fourth quarter, I feel good about our business and the operating environment in general. The stock market ended last week at record high and followed strong third-quarter GDP numbers, upbeat earnings results and increased confidence in U.S. tax reform, especially after the passing of the federal budget by Congress, I feel that the environment is definitely improving. However, I would say that tax reform is a key indicator to the economic outlook for the country as it could help drive further GDP and job growth while also moving markets higher. Given our business model and our high corporate tax rates, Stifel would be a primary beneficiary of these changes, if in fact enacted. And with that operator, I will open the line for questions.