Earnings Labs

Stifel Financial Corp. (SF)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 23, 2016

$78.34

+0.72%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Christine and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Stifel Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Financial Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there'll be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jim Zemlyak, CFO of Stifel, you may begin your conference.

James Mark Zemlyak - Co-President and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Thank you. Good afternoon. I'm Jim Zemlyak, CFO of Stifel. I would like to welcome everyone to our conference call today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2015 financial results. Please note this conference call is being recorded. If you'd like a copy of today's presentation, you may download the slides from our website at www.stifel.com. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind listeners that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not statements of fact or guarantees of performance. They may include statements regarding, among other things, our ability to successfully integrate acquired companies or branch offices and financial advisors; general economic, political, regulatory and market conditions; the investment banking and brokerage industries; our objectives and results; and also may include our belief regarding the effects of various regulatory matters, legal proceedings, management expectations, our liquidity and funding sources, counterparty risks or other similar matters. As such, they are subject to risk, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual future results to differ materially from those discussed in the statements. To supplement our financial statements presented in accordance with GAAP, we may use certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance and liquidity. These non-GAAP measures should only be considered together with the company's GAAP results. To the extent we discuss non-GAAP measures, a reconciliation to GAAP is available on our website at stifel.com. And, finally, for a discussion of risks and uncertainties in our business, please see the business factors affecting the company and the financial services industry in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K and MD&A of results in the company's Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. I will now turn the call over to the Chairman and CEO…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Dan Paris from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Daniel Paris - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hey, Ron. Good afternoon. This year was obviously characterized by investing in the business on the back of two deals and ultimately being able to support a lot bigger balance sheet. So I just want to get a sense of where you are in terms of this investing. Is the non-comp base in 4Q that we saw a good run rate? And maybe just adjusting for only two weeks of Barclays in the run rate, but just trying to get a sense of where we are in the cycle. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, look, Dan, first of all, we made significant investments in our infrastructure. And, as I've said, I believe two things. One, we had a lot of non-comp expenses in consultants. This concept on the regulatory front was expensive. I don't think it's any secret that the DFAST requirements are very expensive. We took them very seriously, because, frankly, to not comply would eviscerate our entire strategy of how we grow. So we made a significant effort to comply. That resulted in a lot of non-comp OpEx like consultants and getting everything in order. Those expenses I believe go away. We do have the Barclays now that we have to roll in. We're already growing. It's hard to always try to say this is the number. But I believe that the infrastructure of people, our overhead as a percentage of net revenues, is probably at levels that I haven't seen since 2004. And the answer is that the overhead structure that we've built support a much larger firm and a bigger balance sheet. So it's almost like…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Harris from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Christopher M. Harris - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Hey, Ron. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Chris.

Christopher M. Harris - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey. So you highlighted the challenging macro in Q4 and we know Q1 isn't off to a great start for really anybody. Wanting to get your thoughts then. If revenues kind of stay here, how aggressive do you guys want to be on the cost side of the business? I know there's puts and takes, right. You've invested so much and you don't want to lose talent. And there's risk to underinvesting. And then if there is some leverage on the cost side, maybe what costs might you want to focus on? Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think, the first thing that I want maybe you all to do is to recognize within a range of however you want to do it, I do it, okay. So I'm going to try to answer your question. But recognize again that a lot of our infrastructure spend and our capital base support a much larger balance sheet. Okay. And we have limited the growth in our balance sheet. And so, I've always said that we're being compared based upon an unlevered balance sheet. And I run these numbers levered. And I know that we had the opportunity to do it. We went from $9 billion to $13 billion in one quarter. I stated we'd be at $15 billion. So to answer your question, the first thing we do is look at where are we on a levered basis. And then where are we compared to various peers and what they're doing and how do we feel about this. And I don't feel that we really have necessarily an expense problem. Now if this is the new normal and there are no IPOs or two (44:03) and you annualize all that, well, of course, we're going to have to look at businesses simply because I think the opportunity for people to be paid isn't going to be there. And it's not just my decision. So we're going to, we believe, I personally believe, that the market is way oversold, especially in financials. I believe that there's a lot of macro benefit at least can get us back on the right track. I'm not going to – certainly not going to, I don't want to say panic, but I'm not going to sit here and do that. I'm not at that point yet, especially when I see our basic results getting fully levered. And so that's how I look at it.

Christopher M. Harris - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Understood. And then as it relates to growing the balance sheet from here, I think, you'd referenced maybe $15 billion by this summer. How should we be thinking about the composition of that growth, whether it's in loans or securities? I think in the past, you'd kind of talked about a 50%/50% mix as being optimal. Is that reasonable given where we are? I know you'd mentioned it depends on where spreads are and your appetite for risk and so on. So, any guidance you could provide there would be great. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You just answered your own question, Chris. I mean you want to come over here and tell me what to do based upon – I mean I'm all ears, okay. I mean I think that we consistently, as I've said, looking backwards, we have felt that the investments that we've made in the investment portfolio, in security-based loans and some of the investments that we have made have provided very attractive risk-adjusted return and ROEs that are accretive. I mean because we're always allocating capital to whatever we do. We take proper interest rate hedges. And so everything we do is with a mind toward risk-adjusted returns and doing things appropriately. As I sit here today, I don't know really how – I know we have a lot of opportunities. I believe that we've shied away from the credit market in terms of loans. I believe that we're seeing credit spreads and terms and covenants and things like that that are making that more attractive on a relative basis. But the only way I can answer it is the way I always answer it, is that I believe as long as we can deploy capital at an acceptable ROE, whether that be in bonds or loans, then adjust it for risk. That's what we'll do. The risk-adjusted density, I can't answer. Not because I don't want to, because I just don't know.

Christopher M. Harris - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Kind of know it when you see it.

Christopher M. Harris - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Hugh Miller from Macquarie. Your line is open. Hugh M. Miller - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Hi. Thanks, Ron, for taking my questions. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Hugh M. Miller - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Sure. First question, you kind of made a comment in the prepared remarks about kind of the Barclays transaction that has been, I guess, a positive in your ability to attract some of the other advisors from larger peers. Can you give us some more color on what you're seeing there? I'm not sure if you were able to quantify that in terms of how many reps you've been able to kind of see since then come onboard. What are you seeing there? And what's your expectation on your ability to kind of see growth in the financial advisor head count? Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Look, the amount of interest that we have received from what I would characterize as many of these high net worth teams from many large firms has exponentially grown. And it is a direct result of the perception that what our platform is and our ability to service clients, which I always felt was reality. But the perception that we could retain and hire the Barclays' people has helped. We've seen a lot of capabilities. I was thinking of something. I want to make this comment a little bit and it goes to a lot of what's going on in the market with those type of deals. But I get a lot of people who say oh, you know, there were – when we got around to it, there were 150 advisors at Barclays and 50 of them left…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Chubak from Nomura. Your line is open.

Steven J. Chubak - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good evening. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Steven.

Steven J. Chubak - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, Ron. So one of the things I just wanted to get a better handle on is where your capital management priorities lie at the moment. The challenges of, based on the commentary in your prepared remarks, that you're really leaving the door open to I suppose the three levers that most of us are thinking about, which is growing the Bank, accelerating the share repurchase activity, and considering some more deals. And just want to get a sense as to given what's happened to your share price and the challenging environment, where your priorities lie today? Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I mean, obviously – I mean, from my perspective, well, we can never say about this. But I certainly has proven by the number of shares we bought back at levels higher than where we are today, I think, that that is an attractive use of capital. We do capital projections and capital planning. And we look at share repurchases. We look at capital deployment. We are probably – in terms of deployment, I would say, we're a little more cautious than normal. Normally, your best opportunities for deals come in environments like this. So you tend to overpay in good environments and you tend to do good deals in bad environments. But that said, there's a lot of banks on the Street. So I would say we're maybe a little more cautious on that front. But, look, we're going to drive our returns, our return on equity, our margins, our pre-tax margin and our EPS, all our levers that drive shareholder value. And we're going to do all of them as the individual largest shareholder in this place would do himself, that's me. So I'm going to it and do it appropriately. So, all of those levers are available. None of them are excluded. And, really, I don't know that any one of them is necessarily favored, although I would admit, our stock price is at levels that seem – I'll leave it there – seem something.

Steven J. Chubak - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

All right. Maybe just a follow-up on a couple of the expense questions from earlier. I recognize that you're probably going to give us some more detail on the non-personnel side in future calls, but just wanted to get a sense as to how much of the elevated expense is tied to the regulatory investments that you've made and whether it's DFAST and the like? How much of that has been front-loaded and should decline over time and how much of that's going to be reflected in the run rate going forward? Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, look, I mean I think, as I've said – Steven, I said I think that the personnel and the capabilities is front-loaded. I think I've already said that as we look at our overhead as a percentage of net revenues, we measure it not only as a segment but by area. And so we have a historical perspective. And, in general, our overhead structure relative to the revenue of the firm is elevated. But that's what we set out to do. So, as I've said, we spent an additional $16 million in IAA compliance and all our risk systems and technology and I've given all those numbers. So a lot of those expenses are front-loaded. We did have a lot of one-time what I would call non-comp OpEx, consulting and all of that, that does go away. That was to help us get to where we wanted to be. But I believe that a lot of the expenses that we put in place was done, as I said to all the shareholders, with the express intent of being able to prudently from a regulatory and risk management and just overall evaluation perspective prudently grow this company beyond – firstly, $10 billion is a line in the sand, but certainly much larger than that. So we've put in a lot of infrastructure. And now we need to build the firm into that to a certain extent. I don't see additional personnel hires needed, certainly, at this level of revenue at all. And, again, that just goes to how we look at the business.

Steven J. Chubak - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. And just one more for me. Recognizing that the investment banking backdrop currently is certainly challenging, the one area where some of your advisory peers have highlighted increased activity is on the restructuring side. And just given the fact that you have Miller Buckfire under your umbrella, just wanted to get a sense as to whether you anticipated growing contribution from that particular business? Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, of course, I do. I mean it's -

Steven J. Chubak - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Maybe you can quantify it for us. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We have that. Of course, I do. It's always ironic to talk about how good it is for companies to need to restructure. But in that business, it's true. And so I mean that – we don't have Miller Buckfire to the logo. I mean we do, I guess. But we want to participate in restructuring space. We've done some very noteworthy transactions, as I said. And I can't disclose what we might be working on. But, as you know, we've got deals award for being the advisor to the city of Detroit. This comes to mind for me as well as a very significant, not only noteworthy of the marketplace, the largest, but also indicative of our intellectual capital that resides within Miller Buckfire. So, of course, I would like to participate in an inquiry. I always feel a little uncomfortable picking that business.

Steven J. Chubak - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

I understand. And, Ron, it might be helpful if you could at least quantify what that business contributed during the last crisis or at least going through the last cycle. So just to give us a range as to what peak revenues are, maybe what the trough levels are which is likely over the last couple of years given the low levels of default. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, look, we merged with them at trough levels, right, and their peak level which was, I guess, 2009, 2010, 2011, I don't think is relevant but it might be but I don't – I guess that I hear you in terms of that. When we merged with them we were at a trough. And I think there's more opportunity today. I can ask Victor to give a historical run. But I think most of the restructuring firm show our revenues back in peak levels that even they don't think they're going to get to today. At least I hope they don't get to in 2009 and 2010. So I don't know – obviously I don't disclose restructuring advisory revenues. I guess I'll consider whether we should do that. We don't disclose revenues by product type either. So, at this point, I really can't answer your question.

Steven J. Chubak - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Well, I appreciate the effort and thanks for taking my questions. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You got it.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Ron Kruszewski, I turn the call over to you. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Kruszewski.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ronald J. Kruszewski - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: It's all right. No one can pronounce it. So to our shareholders, look, I believe that these are interesting times, certainly interesting times for me. I'll leave you like I always do. The reality sometimes of what's going on versus the market's perception are completely different. This is one of those times. See you.