Russ Devendorf
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.
Yes. Thanks for the question. So remember, a lot of what we were selling in Q4 is going to close in Q1. So we leaned a lot heavier into incentives in 4Q. With some of the uptick that we're seeing in traffic and it's -- and again, don't get me wrong. I mean, it's -- we are seeing an uptick sequentially, but it's the traditional spring selling season that we've hit. So it's a good trend, right? It's moving in the right direction. And -- but we continue to monitor it on a division-by-division and community-by-community basis. And so we're looking where we can maximize some margins, pull back on incentives. But then again, we're not going to sacrifice pace. And so as long as we continue to get the pace, then we'll -- that's going to be our -- where we decide to moderate incentives. And so yes, we're looking probably sequentially at about 100, 150 basis points just in the closings. But again, it's -- and when you look at what we're doing from an incentives on sales, I think it's -- we're seeing a similar trend from Q4 to Q1 and kind of the incentives. But the one thing I would add is forward commitments, the cost of forwards has come down with the rate environment. So that's good, and that will help us a bit. But we're also looking at just reducing or discounting base prices to get an attractive number out there. For us, it's definitely about payment. We are seeing with our new communities coming online, that the average sales prices are coming down. And so that's -- we're also looking at bringing some smaller product online. And so that's also impacting a bit of the sales price and margins. But at the end of the day, we are focused on getting a pace. And as Greg and I mentioned on the prepared remarks, operationally, things are running very smoothly. We want to keep our trades busy. That's -- we think that's a competitive advantage, keeping pace, keeping trades busy. But in order for us to keep building, we've got to keep selling. And so again, we're going to continue to monitor it from an incentive, whatever we can do to keep that pace. And we really want to get back to a presale orientation. This market has been really very spec heavy. That reflects a lot of what our competitors are doing. We're still not seeing resale competition come back in any meaningful way. Traditionally, resales are always our biggest competitor, but that's not the case. But yes, so we're -- it's still hand-to-hand combat. Hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color.