Earnings Labs

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 31, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Shoe Carnival's Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. It is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this call is expressly prohibited. Management's remarks may contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risk factors. These risk factors could cause the company's actual results to materially differ from those projected in such statements. Forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the discussion of risk factors included in the company's SEC filings and today's earnings press release. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date. The company disclaims any obligation to update any of the risk factors or publicly announce any revisions to the forward-looking statements discussed on today's conference call or contained in today's press release to reflect future events or developments. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Cliff Sifford, President and Chief Executive Officer of Shoe Carnival. Please go ahead, sir.

Clifton Sifford

Management

Thank you, and welcome to Shoe Carnival's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today is Kerry Jackson, Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Operating and Financial Officer. On today's call, I'll provide a brief overview of our second quarter performance and give you an update on our 2016 guidance. Kerry will review the financial results, and then we'll open up the call to take your questions. Our non-athletic footwear categories, particularly sandals, performed well in the second quarter. Shoe Perks, our loyalty program, continued to be a valuable tool as we increased shopping frequency and average order value across our most loyal customers to report an 8th consecutive quarterly increase in comparable store sales of 0.5%. Even though we fell short of our expectations, we believe the initiatives we have executed over the past several years, such as Shoe Perks and our multichannel enhancements, will continue to help us drive comparable store sales increases throughout the year. I'd like to provide you a little more color by month than we normally do to help you understand both the positives as well as the challenges within the quarter. As we communicated on our earnings call last quarter, the second quarter started off cool and rainy for most of May, which had a negative impact on seasonal product. As expected, the month of June was more seasonal, and we experienced a nice rebound in our sandal product categories. Our merchant team has done a terrific job having the right assortment of family footwear when our customer is ready to buy. In July, sandals continued to produce positive results. However, at the same time, sales in adult athletic trended down low single digits. As we entered the key back-to-school sell season, at the end of the second quarter, we…

W. Jackson

Management

Thank you, Cliff. Second quarter net sales increased $4.1 million to $231.9 million compared to the second quarter last year. The net sales increase was driven by a $5.8 million increase in sales from the 25 new stores opened since the beginning of the second quarter of fiscal 2015 and a $1.2 million increase in comp store sales. These increases were partially offset by a $2.9 million loss in sales from the 13 stores closed since the beginning of the second quarter of fiscal 2015. Our gross profit margin for the quarter was 29.0% compared to 29.1% in the second quarter last year. This decrease was driven by a 40 basis point decrease in our merchandise margin, partially offset by a 30 basis point decrease in buying, distribution and occupancy expenses as a percentage of sales. SG&A expenses increased $2.2 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2015 to $60.6 million. As a percentage of sales, these expenses increased to 26.1% compared to 25.6% in the second quarter last year. For the quarter, the increase in expenses for new stores was partially offset by expense reductions for the stores that have closed, resulting in a $216,000 increase in non-comp store-selling expenses. Other significant changes in SG&A for the quarter included increases in wages, advertising, other employee benefits and equity compensation, partially offset by reductions in incentive compensation, employee healthcare and fixed asset write-offs. Preopening costs included in both cost of sales and SG&A increased $276,000 in the second quarter of fiscal 2016 to $632,000. Store closing and impairment charges included in both cost of sales and SG&A decreased $557,000 in Q2 this year to $36,000. The effective income tax rate for the second quarter of fiscal 2016 was 38.0% compared to 38.8% for the same period in fiscal 2015. For…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeff Stein with Northcoast Research.

Jeffrey Stein

Analyst

Guys, a couple of questions for you. First of all, with regard to the trend in canvas. I'm just wondering if you think, are we done? We've seen such a strong prolonged trend in this category. Do you believe that we are now looking at a new lower trend? And if not, how are you thinking about your inventory plan in this category going forward? And just a follow-up housekeeping question. Kerry, wondering if you could talk about the share count you're assuming for Q4 as well. In other words, are you assuming you're buying the additional 300,000 shares in the third quarter?

Clifton Sifford

Management

Jeff, this is Cliff. We -- I'm not prepared to tell you that canvas is done. I am prepared to tell you that we will cut back the amount of canvas on a go-forward basis that we're carrying. We -- both in the skate category and in the walking categories and in the casual categories, we have seen canvas decline in all 3 of those categories.

Jeffrey Stein

Analyst

Okay. And, Kerry, on the share count?

W. Jackson

Management

For Q4, we are assuming that we're building in another 300,000 shares would be repurchased both in Q3 and Q4. And if we hit those numbers, Q4 shares outstanding will be just under 17.5 million.

Jeffrey Stein

Analyst

So you're assuming you're going to buy 300,000 in each -- so total 600,000 in the back half of the year?

W. Jackson

Management

Correct.

Jeffrey Stein

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And wondering if you could talk about the kind of -- your -- the promotional cadence for the back half of the year, particularly in light of the election cycle. Is it going to force you or are you thinking about altering your media mix, perhaps less television or starting your television later than normal?

Clifton Sifford

Management

We definitely believe we have to alter our television buy, especially as we go through the third quarter, Jeff. And we'll utilize more digital advertising and our Shoe Perks members. You just can't -- you can't guarantee that the spots are going to run. It's -- the elections get -- they will preempt you for the election coverage. So fourth quarter, I don't believe we're going to change our promotional cadence much at all for the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

We'll go on to Jill Nelson with Johnson Rice.

Jill Caruthers

Analyst

Can you talk about -- a competitor talked about -- kind of mirrored your thoughts on a later start to back-to-school shopping, kind of tagged it at maybe a 2-week delay. Maybe if you could just talk about how you're seeing your customers shop closer to need and any insight on that.

Clifton Sifford

Management

It really is different than what we've seen in years past. In years past, you could almost count on the week prior to back-to-school for any given market, the sales would begin to increase. This year, it's like 2 days, 3 days just before school starts, but it continues on. And in some cases, up to 2 weeks after back-to-school. So we are seeing that trend. It's more pronounced than I have ever seen it. And I really can't put an explanation to it. Wished I could, but I really can't.

Jill Caruthers

Analyst

Okay. And then, I guess, if you look now what kind of trends, it seems like August comps have improved. If maybe you could just -- has it been kind of a weekly acceleration? And kind of if you look back now, do you think back-to-school is tracking in your lines of expectations adjusted for the late start?

Clifton Sifford

Management

Jill, it has not sequentially gotten better. I think I heard a competitor say that yesterday. But it has definitely, through the month, gotten better. 3 out of the 4 weeks of August have been positive and much stronger positive as we go through the latter part of August. As far as telling you whether back-to-school is going to hit our expectation, I really believe I need to give that another couple of weeks. We have at least 2 more weeks of back-to-school. We are still seeing acceleration of sales for schools that have gone back. And I just -- I'm not prepared to tell you that it has met our expectation until we get at least to the middle of September.

Jill Caruthers

Analyst

Okay. And then, I guess, a shift in the topic. Can you remind us again kind of how you're looking at boot inventory and those buys for the back half?

Clifton Sifford

Management

Yes. We have been -- over the past several years, and you've been following us, know that we've concentrated on reducing our per store inventories. And we've done -- the merchant team has done a good job at that. We feel that if weather cooperates with us at all in the fourth quarter, as you remember, we didn't heed our boot expectation last fourth quarter. However, we had a pretty good fourth quarter with athletic. But we feel we can reduce our fall inventory on a per door basis going into the first quarter of 2017. So with that said, I think our inventories are going to end this year down mid-single digits on a per door basis.

Operator

Operator

We'll continue on to Greg Pendy with Sidoti.

Gregory Pendy

Analyst

Just -- I guess, ahead of plans when you mentioned that you're looking to launch buy online, pick up in store, is there any expectation that you may be able to, I guess, reduce some of the shipping you're seeing from online orders and capture some of that -- those online orders without having to incur any shipping costs as the people would actually be picking up the product in the store?

Clifton Sifford

Management

Greg, that's certainly a hope. However, if they buy online and the store closest to them does not own the product, then we're going to have to ship the product to that store, and we'll incur shipping charges for that. But the positive is that they are coming to the store to pick the product up. And in our stores, with the in-store environment and the way we run our stores with the promotional activity, we believe that if we get them in the store, we have an opportunity to maybe increase that purchase.

Gregory Pendy

Analyst

And if I could just get one follow-up. Was there anything -- I guess, given the shift in back-to-school last year, did that boost your SG&A last year in the third quarter by, I believe, maybe $3 million or so, given just the calendar shift in the tax-free shipping holidays?

W. Jackson

Management

Greg, are you' saying in Q3 last year or this year?

Gregory Pendy

Analyst

Yes. was it inflated last year by a couple of million, I think, just because of -- just due to a shift in tax-free holidays that you would cycle out this year? Or is it relatively the same this year?

W. Jackson

Management

It's relatively the same on a comparison basis. There wasn't a real story -- I walked through some of the increases of advertising wages and a few items like that, that represent the SG&A. But there wasn't a real story behind it. This year, from a sales -- it was very comparable. The shift occurred last year, and last year was comparison against '14. But '16 versus '15 in Q2 were very comparable on the shifts. It just is a little lumpy on the SG&A though. While we -- against our original sales expectation, we were expecting to leverage our SG&A. Because it came in a little lighter, we didn't. But we do expect that to be a little bit better in Q3, where we're guiding to leverage our cost structure.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And with no additional questions in the queue, I'd like to turn things back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

Clifton Sifford

Management

I'd like to thank you for joining us on the call today and your interest in Shoe Carnival. I look forward to talking to you again on the third quarter call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. Thank you all again for your participation.