Catherine Smith
Analyst · Bank of America
Thank you, Brian, and thank you all for joining today. Our second quarter results demonstrate the progress we're making on both the top and bottom line to support lasting profitable growth in our business. I'm grateful to our partners across our coffeehouses, supply chain and support centers whose commitment and passion are delivering the best of Starbucks to our customers every day. I'll now share our Q2 results and then provide additional insight into the months ahead. Our Q2 consolidated revenue was $9.5 billion, up 8% (sic) [ 9% ] to the prior year. Global comparable store sales grew 6.2%, driven by continued strong performance across both our North America and International segments. As of March 29, we had 41,129-Starbucks in our global portfolio with 11 net new coffeehouses in the quarter. Our North America segment revenues grew 6% in the quarter to $6.9 billion with comparable store sales growing 7.1%. And in the U.S., our comparable store sales growth also accelerated to 7.1% led by transactions up more than 4%. Average ticket grew nearly 3%, driven by a combination of our growing delivery business, beverage mix, our artisanal bakery launch driving greater food attach and the continued popularity of modifications led by our Cold Foam platform. Cold Foam, our leading modifier, continues to grow in popularity, with platform sales up more than 40% in Q2 across our U.S. company-operated business. Innovation across new flavors and the introduction of protein have further strengthened the appeal of Cold Foam, especially among Gen Z. We also believe Free Mod Mondays as part of our new Starbucks Rewards program will continue to support its growth. Our comp performance reflects our strengthening business fundamentals, world-class customer service through Green Apron Service, menu innovation that shows up in a welcoming third place and a strong, relevant brand supported by our marketing and rewards program. This is the Starbucks that drives durable growth. Our 90-day active Starbucks Rewards program grew to 35.6 million members in Q2, up 4% year-over-year. We saw steady member growth from Q1 to Q2, which is a positive shift from prior year seasonal sequential declines. Members are adapting quickly to our new loyalty program. And while early, we're encouraged by the level of engagement we're driving across tiers. Also, since launch, both the rate and volume of U.S. card loads have grown steadily, exceeding our expectations. Overall, our North America store base grew by 25 net new coffeehouses to 18,385 at the end of the quarter. This included 44 net new openings across our company-operated business as well as 19 net closures in our licensed store portfolio. Our North America licensed revenues were roughly flat year-over-year, reflecting these net store closures in the quarter. Notably, U.S. licensed stores returned to positive system-wide comps for the first time since Q1 fiscal 2024. This was led by record airport volumes and growth in other discretionary segments, together with continued recovery in retail and grocery. Moving to International. The segment reported $2.1 billion of net revenues in the second quarter, growing nearly 8% (sic) [ 10% ] year-over-year. International comp sales grew 2.6%, once again led by transactions which were up over 2% in the quarter. As Brian mentioned, all 10 of our largest international markets, including China, Japan, South Korea and Mexico, delivered positive comps for the first time in 9 quarters. Of note, Starbucks China delivered another quarter of transaction-led growth with comps up 50 basis points on transaction growth of more than 2%. On a 2-year basis, comps were stable sequentially versus Q1, smoothing out the timing of the Lunar New Year. Our International store portfolio was 22,744 at the end of the second quarter, down 14 net coffeehouses from Q1. This includes the impact of 55 store closures as part of last September's portfolio decisions. We'll get to guidance shortly. But as we look to the rest of the fiscal year, we're well positioned together with our international licensee partners to return to net unit growth. In Channel Development, our Q2 net revenues grew 38% (sic) [ 39% ] year-over-year primarily due to higher revenues from the Global Coffee Alliance. Our new multi-serve refreshers concentrate which we introduced in North America last quarter is shaping up to be our largest CPG launch in over a decade with strong customer reception and repeat purchase behavior. At the end of Q2, we also launched coffee and protein ready-to-drink beverages, complementing our growing protein platform in our coffeehouses. Moving to margin. Our Q2 consolidated operating margin was 9.4%, improving 110 basis points from the prior year. This was our first quarter of consolidated margin expansion since Q1 fiscal 2024 led by the International segment. International operating margin grew by approximately 790 basis points to 20.3% as the segment continues its broader recovery. As expected, approximately half of our international margin expansion was driven by held-for-sale accounting related to Starbucks China, which temporarily reduced store operating expenses and D&A by approximately $118 million in the quarter. This dynamic concluded at the start of Q3 with the transactions closed. In North America, our Q2 operating margin contracted approximately 170 basis points to 10.2% as our progress on operating leverage and cost discipline continued to partially offset our annualizing investments in Green Apron Service. Our North America margins in the quarter were also impacted by roughly 190 basis points of product and distribution cost increases as a percentage of revenues and greater-than-anticipated legal accruals. About half of the product and distribution increase was driven by innovation-led product mix, and the remaining balance was inflation largely related to tariffs and elevated coffee prices. While market dynamics can change, we expect these tariff and coffee pressures to moderate in the back half of fiscal 2026, especially given recent trends in coffee prices. As a reminder, our results typically lag the market, both upward and downward due to our coffee purchasing and hedging practices. And finally, consolidated G&A in the quarter decreased 5.5% as our organizational streamlining efforts continue to actualize this fiscal year. Our Q2 effective tax rate rose to 27.1%, primarily due to taxes accrued in advance of the planned sale of Starbucks China's retail business. Higher pretax earnings and related permanent and discrete tax items also contributed to the increase. All in, Q2 earnings per share grew 22% year-over-year to $0.50, our first quarter of EPS growth in more than 2 years. Before we discuss our outlook, I'd like to spend a few moments on China. Our previously announced transaction with Boyu Capital closed shortly after quarter end. Beginning in Q3, the retail operations of Starbucks China will be deconsolidated from our financials and will be reported as part of our broader licensed portfolio. We will also cease our quarterly reporting on China stand-alone revenue and comps. In addition, we will make an informational 1-pager available shortly after this call on the quarterly results and supplemental data page of our Investor Relations website. The overall value to Starbucks is anticipated to be more than $13 billion, including the net present value of our licensing economics. As part of the transaction, Starbucks received approximately $3.1 billion in gross cash proceeds before taxes. Prior to closing, we repaid our $1 billion February maturities and expect to deploy the remaining proceeds toward additional debt reduction and ongoing balance sheet management. These actions further strengthen our financial position consistent with our BBB+ Baa1 rating. Our capital allocation philosophy reflects a disciplined approach across 3 priorities: strategically investing in the business, maintaining a competitive dividend and returning excess cash to shareholders, supported by our investment-grade profile. We believe this framework positions us well to invest opportunistically, navigate cycles and create durable value over the long term. Turning to our outlook for fiscal 2026. Our Q2 results highlight the progress we continue to make in our turnaround and momentum we've built around our strategy. From the outset, we've been clear that top line improvement would come first with earnings growth to follow. As our comp performance becomes more consistent each quarter, this growth, combined with our cost savings efforts are starting to show up in margins. Starting at the top of the P&L, we are raising our fiscal 2026 global comp guidance to 5% growth or better, led by 5% or better comps in the U.S. Customer demand trends in our business remain strong today. And while history demonstrates the resilience of our brand through periods of high gas prices, the current macro environment brings heightened uncertainty to our operating landscape and consumer behavior more broadly. Our comp guidance accounts for these considerations. In addition, our guidance now assumes a joint venture licensing structure in China, and in the back half of this fiscal year, we expect our China-related revenues to be less than 20% of what we would have previously reported with China as company operated. As such, we now expect our consolidated fiscal 2026 net revenues to be roughly flat year-over-year. We continue to expect slight year-over-year growth in our fiscal 2026 consolidated operating margins driven by the net effect of a number of factors. First, we expect sales leverage to build over the next 2 quarters as we execute with discipline and advance our cost savings initiatives. These serve as offsets to our investments in our Back to Starbucks priorities as well as other headwinds. Second, as I mentioned earlier, we expect coffee and tariff pressures to start easing as we move into the back half of the fiscal year. Third, our China JV structure is expected to be margin accretive with roughly half of its revenues flowing to operating income. We remain on track with our $2 billion cost savings plan. These are gross savings, which we expect to realize through fiscal 2028, and balanced across product and distribution costs, OpEx and G&A. This year, the impact of our efforts will be most visible in G&A as much of our realized savings across the P&L are being offset by our strategic investments in our Back to Starbucks plan. We continue to expect our consolidated G&A dollars to run below fiscal 2023 levels even after incorporating greater performance-based compensation related to better-than-expected financials. Putting this all together, we are raising our EPS guidance at both ends of the range to between $2.25 and $2.45. China's transition to a JV structure is now expected to be relatively EPS-neutral this fiscal year. While global macro factors can introduce variability in our results, our guidance reflects our current view and confidence in the underlying business. Finally, from a unit count perspective, we still expect to add approximately 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses this fiscal year. We expect International to accelerate its growth over the next 2 quarters to achieve 450 to 500 net new coffeehouses in fiscal 2026, of which China still comprises close to half. We also continue to assume 150 to 175 net new U.S. company-operated coffeehouses this year, and we will continue to assess our existing portfolio as we rebuild our development pipeline. In conclusion, our results this quarter deepen our conviction in the long-term trajectory of our business and our Back to Starbucks plan. Our improving execution, brand relevance and customer experience reflect who we are and the progress we're making. This is Starbucks. Our work isn't done, and we remain clear eyed about our path forward to deliver a stronger future. And with that, we are now ready to take your questions. Thank you. Operator?