Kevin Johnson
Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question
Well, good afternoon, and welcome. As part of my ongoing visits to Starbucks stores around the world, I'm joining today's call from Tokyo. On this particular trip John Culver and I are joined by Nestlé senior executives to discuss our collective strategies for growth and review the great progress our teams have made implementing Global Coffee Alliance. Today I'm pleased to share that Starbucks delivered strong operating results again in Q4, capping off a transformative year for the company as we continue to execute our Growth at Scale agenda with focus and discipline. Pat will review our financial results in more detail later in the call, but I'll start by sharing performance highlights for the quarter and the year as well as some key actions we've taken and important investments we've made to enable predictable, sustainable growth while delivering value for all our stakeholders as we build an enduring company at Starbucks. In the fourth quarter, Starbucks delivered revenue growth of 10% excluding the 3% impact of streamline activities and foreign exchange led by global comp sales growth of 5% and net store growth of 7% year-over-year. These strong operating results yielded non-GAAP EPS of $0.70 for the quarter up 13% from last year. In the U.S., we posted comp sales growth of 6% in Q4 including comp transaction growth of 3%. That's a two-year sales comp of 10% for Q4 a sequential improvement over our very strong results in Q3 and our best performance in the U.S. in over two years. In China we posted 5% comp sales growth in Q4 including comp transaction growth of 2%. That's a two-year sales comp of 6% for Q4 demonstrating continued positive momentum in our fastest-growing business, where we increased our store base by 17% over the prior year. For the fiscal year, Starbucks delivered record results in both total net revenues and non-GAAP EPS. Total net revenues were $26.5 billion up 10% over the prior year when adjusted for streamline activities and foreign exchange. This included 5% global comp sales growth for the year in over 1,900 net new stores globally, yielding a record non-GAAP EPS of $2.83 for fiscal year 2019 up 17% versus prior year. With more than 31,000 stores in 82 markets welcoming over 100 million customer occasions each week and enabling over one billion digital customer occasions per year, Starbucks is a part of our customers' everyday routines around the world. And I applaud, the 400,000 green apron partners, who deliver a premium Starbucks Experience to every customer they serve. Because of our partners, we are achieving even higher levels of customer loyalty and brand preference. Now let me highlight some of the key initiatives and investments that drove our strong growth in fiscal 2019. And have laid the groundwork for what we expect will be another year of strong operating performance, in fiscal 2020. In keeping with our Growth at Scale agenda, I will talk about how we're accelerating growth in the U.S. and China. How we're extending the reach of our brand through the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé. And how we've increased stakeholder returns. Now I'm very proud of the progress the team has made against our three focused initiatives to accelerate growth in our U.S. business, enhancing the in-store experience, delivering relevant beverage innovation, and driving digital relationships. We have strong evidence that our approach is working, as demonstrated by the fact that we are seeing traffic growth across all day parts. And we intend to build on this momentum in the year ahead. We continue to see a strong correlation between Starbucks partner engagement and customer connection, which leads to increased customer frequency. This reinforces our belief that the Starbucks Experience, delivered by our partners is a key competitive advantage. And therefore, we are making targeted investments to elevate the partner experience, with clear evidence that this in turn elevates the customer experience and drives growth. Throughout fiscal 2019 in the U.S., we invested in our partners, by allocating additional store labor, increasing store-level training, and simplifying in-store tasks, often with new technology. For example, we introduced a new staffing and scheduling system to optimize labor allocations based on partner preferences and predictive analytics. These investments in our partners collectively elevated customer connections as evidenced by an all-time high in customer connection scores in Q4. And we will build on this momentum, with incremental partner investments in fiscal year 2020. We also continue to invest in beverage innovation. And I'm pleased to say that beverages contributed five points of our U.S. comp sales growth in the fourth quarter, led by the strength of our cold beverage platform. We completed our rollout of Nitro Cold Brew across company-operated stores in the U.S., this summer and introduced new cold pumpkin beverage offering, the Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew. And we're very encouraged by its reception. We expect this momentum to continue, as we move into the favorable holiday season. And we look forward to sharing more details with you in the weeks ahead. And finally, we have continued to pursue new opportunities to expand digital customer relationships, investing to meet customers' increasing desire for convenience and personalized offers. Supported by the successful launch of multi-tier redemption in early Q3, we saw U.S. Starbucks Rewards grow to 17.6 million active members at the end of Q4, a year-over-year increase of 15%. This is an important growth driver because we know from experience, that when customers join Starbucks Rewards their spend level with Starbucks increases meaningfully. On our last earnings call, I outlined the important strategic role that our digital flywheel plays in growing digital customer relationships. Clearly, that strategy is working. I want to highlight another very important element of our digital strategy, artificial intelligence. Over this past year, we have been dialling up our in-house capabilities and investments in AI with an initiative we call, Deep Brew. Deep Brew will increasingly power our personalization engine, optimize store labor allocations, and drive inventory management in our stores. We plan to leverage Deep Brew in ways that free up our partners, so that they can spend more time connecting with customers. Deep Brew is a key differentiator for the future. And as we continue our quest to build world-class AI capabilities, to better support partners. Moving on to how we've accelerated growth in China, looking back over this past year, I'm very pleased with the progress we've made to capitalize on one of the world's most compelling growth opportunities led by strong store development, expanded digital customer engagement, and category-leading innovation. Store development continues to be our number one driver of growth in China. We opened over 600, net new stores in fiscal 2019, and crossed the 4,000 store mark, while maintaining best-in-class new store returns. As we expand our store footprint, we have also been investing in innovative retail formats, including our Starbucks Now store in Beijing that opened in July, a unique, express retail experience, that seamlessly integrates physical and digital touch points, to enhance the Mobile Order & Pay, and the Starbucks Delivers customer experience. We are seeing encouraging early results from this new format. And in China we plan to open new Starbucks Now stores in top tier cities in fiscal 2020, leveraging this new store format to complement the third place store formats and increase market penetration. As we've expanded our physical presence in China, we've also made significant strides expanding our digital presence in this fast-growing market. The Starbucks Rewards program in China, which we upgraded in December 2018, continues to rapidly drive new membership. At the end of Q4, active members reached 10 million, up 45% over the prior year. To support this growth, we up-leveled our Tmall flagship store in September to offer our Starbucks Rewards members, exclusive products and a tailor-made gift experience. And we enabled members to earn Stars from online shopping. We recently celebrated the one-year anniversary of our China digital partnership with Alibaba, and I'm pleased to share that we surpassed our goal of expanding Starbucks Delivers to 3,000 stores in 100 cities by the end of the fiscal year. This propelled mobile order sales mix in China to 10% in the fourth quarter with seven points coming from Starbucks Delivers and three points from our recently launched mobile order for pickup. In the fourth quarter, we also ushered in a new era of digital customer engagement in China with the launch of voice ordering and delivery via Tmall Genie, as we continue to enhance the customer experience around mobile ordering. These elevated digital experiences are key drivers of accelerated growth in Starbucks Rewards membership in China and provides significant momentum for us to introduce further innovations in fiscal year 2020 as we work to constantly elevate the customer experience and reward loyalty. Moving on to the Global Coffee Alliance, just one year after announcing this alliance with Nestlé, we have launched three new coffee platforms in over 30 new markets: Starbucks by Nespresso, Starbucks by Dolce Gusto, and Starbucks roast and ground coffee. We did this in record time and ahead of schedule. In addition to the coffee platforms, we also launched a new product category Starbucks Creamers in North America in Q4. We entered China's at-home and food service segments through the alliance, allowing Chinese consumers to enjoy some of their favorite Starbucks coffees in the comfort of their home. This partnership has enabled us to accelerate the global reach of the Starbucks brand in key markets. And looking ahead, we plan to be in 50 global markets in the first half of 2020. Moving on to returns to one of our key stakeholder groups, our shareholders. In the fourth quarter, we returned nearly $3 billion to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends bringing our full year shareholder capital returns to $12 billion. Including what we returned in fiscal year 2018, we've now returned approximately $21 billion to shareholders, well on our way to meeting our three-year commitment of $25 billion by the end of fiscal year 2020. And I'm pleased to share that our board has approved a 14% dividend increase this quarter, making the 10th consecutive year that we've increased our dividend by a double-digit percentage. Our Growth at Scale model combined with our strong balance sheet position Starbucks to have the financial flexibility to both invest in our growth and reward our shareholders. In closing, our fiscal year 2019 performance gives us confidence that our Growth at Scale agenda is helping unlock the full potential of the Starbucks brand. With great intentionality, we've invested in our partners, in technology and in our stores to drive long-term growth. And we’ve made significant progress to streamline our company through organizational restructuring and through the licensing of some international markets, enabling us to bring even more focus and discipline to the core of our business. This has helped us to accelerate the pace of innovation at Starbucks, both at the support center and in the field to deliver relevant, meaningful and inspiring experiences for our partners and our customers. And with the plans that we've developed for fiscal year 2020 including continued investment, we are excited about our ability to sustain this growth in the years ahead. Reflecting back on the historic Starbucks Leadership Experience, we hosted in Chicago last month, it is my strong belief that the store manager plays a pivotal role in the growth and success of our company. That is why we convened 12,000 store managers and field leaders from the U.S. and Canada to reflect on and celebrate our mission and values while recommitting to the shared belief that by better serving our partners we enable them to stand shoulder-to-shoulder and create best moments for our customers. This is at the center of who we are as a company, and will remain a guiding light as we go forward. The Chicago leadership experience was an important milestone in our journey, and we will be back in Chicago again next month for another key milestone, the opening of our sixth Starbucks Reserve Roastery. This will be the largest Starbucks store in the world, a beautifully designed iconic store on Michigan Avenue. And I can't wait to celebrate this opening with our partners and customers, and we hope to see many of you there soon. With that, I'll turn over the call to Pat and look forward to taking your questions later in the call. Pat?