Scott Maw
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thanks, Kevin, and good afternoon, everyone. We kicked off fiscal 2016 with another record breaking quarter and a continuation of the accelerating momentum we saw in our business throughout 2015. As Howard shared, in Q1, Starbucks operating income increased 16% year-over-year and exceeded $1 billion in a single quarter for the first time ever. And we delivered a strong operating margin of 19.7%, 60 basis points over last year. Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.46 compares to GAAP EPS of $0.65 in Q1 2015, noteworthy is the Q1 2015 included a gain of $0.26 on the acquisition of Starbucks Japan. Excluding certain Starbucks Japan related items, non-GAAP operating margin grew 40 basis points over Q1 of last year to a quarterly record 19.9% and non-GAAP EPS also increased 15% year-over-year and reached a quarterly record of $0.46. For Q1 operating margin, strong sales leverage and favorability and cost of good sold was partially offset by the impact of our partner in digital investments. Also Q1 revenue growth included 2 points of negative foreign exchange impact and non-GAAP EPS growth included 5 points of negative foreign exchange impact. I will now take you through the individual segment performance in Q1. Americas our largest business segment has never been stronger driving 14% operating income growth over Q1 last year and contributing a record high $935 million. Americas operating margin expanded by 80 basis points to 25.1% also a Q1 record driven primarily by sales average and excellent management around cost of good sold. The margin improvement we saw in Q1 in the Americas is even more significant when considering that the vast bulk of our partner in digital investments began in our Q2 last year, so we will not begin lapping those investments until next quarter. The increase in partnering digital investments is reflected in the details of our margin change as store operating expenses increased 80 basis points as a percentage of retail revenue, a figure that includes 120 basis points of impact from these investments. We see moderate margin expansion in the Americas business for the full year 2016 despite the significant investments we continue to make. Moving on to our China Asia-Pacific segment, on a GAAP basis, CAP operating income grew 17% over Q1 last year to a new quarterly record of $127 million. GAAP operating margin declined 240 basis points to 19.4%, due primarily to the impact of the ownership change for Starbucks Japan, offset by positive sales leverage. On a non-GAAP basis, CAP operating income increased 20% over Q1 last year. Operating margin, excluding the full 330 basis point impact of our ownership change in Starbucks Japan, increased 90 basis points, driven primarily by strong sales leverage and higher income from our joint venture operations, partially offset by higher store operating expenses. By way of reminder, our Q1 2015 results in CAP reflect pre-acquisition joint venture accounting treatment for the first five weeks of the quarter and our stores in Japan are included in our global comp store base in December, consistent with our established policy. Given the complexity of modeling our CAP segment in the period immediately following the Japan ownership change, I thought it would be helpful to reiterate that factoring in the impact of adding over 1,000 stores in Japan into the fiscal 2016 calculation, we expect CAP comps to land in the mid-single digits. Noteworthy is that our year one performance in Japan significantly exceeded the assumptions built into our acquisition model on each of comps, revenue and operating income, supporting the tremendous optimism we have around our performance in Japan in the years ahead. Projected revenue growth in CAP will be in the mid-teens for the year, reflecting excellent growth in all of our major markets and a small benefit from the change in Japan ownership, partially offset by ongoing foreign-exchange headwinds. We still see CAP margins flat to down slightly compared to 2015 levels. Noteworthy is that we expect Q2 revenue growth and operating margin to be somewhat lower than the average for the year due to the impact of seasonality in our largest CAP markets. EMEA's operating margin expanded 40 basis points to 15.4%, principally driven by gains on the sales of assets to our licensees, partially offset by somewhat lower margins in our license business resulting from higher cost of goods sold and the impact of lower sales in company-owned stores, especially during holidays. EMEA's performance was particularly strong given the impact of foreign exchange and challenges to top-line growth following the tragic terrorist attacks in Paris. The strength and diversity of our EMEA portfolio were further punctuated in Q1 by strong comp performance from our license stores which delivered comp store sales growth in the high single digits. While operating income in EMEA declined slightly from the prior year to $48 million, the strength of our underlying business and our expectation of a gradual return to normal operating conditions in the region gives us confidence that EMEA operating margins for the full fiscal year 2016 will still approach 15%, as we communicated to you last quarter. Channel Development's operating margin increased 210 basis points to 37.7% and segment operating income reached a quarterly record $193 million, 23% over Q1 last year. Another record quarter from our North American coffee partnership business with Pepsi and cost of goods sold favorability were the primary driver of channel development's margin improvement in Q1. As Mike mentioned, profitability growth was ahead of expectation due to strong market share gains across all of our key business lines and excellent execution in operations. For the full year, we continue to expect moderate margin expansion in channel development over the prior year. As I stated at the outset, Starbucks had a very strong Q1 with solid revenue growth and impressive margin expansion. For Q2, we are expecting GAAP EPS in the range of $0.37 to $0.38 and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.38 to $0.39, representing non-GAAP EPS growth of 15% to 18%. Let me take a moment to reiterate the EPS ranges for fiscal 2016 we provided to you last quarter. GAAP EPS in the range of $1.84 to $1.86 and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.87 to $1.89, including the 53rd week, which adds approximately $0.06 to Q4. This represents 18% to 20% EPS growth for the year. For the full year, foreign exchange is now expected to be a negative impact on revenue growth by 2 points and negatively impact non-GAAP EPS growth by 3 points, each up 1 full point from our previous guidance. Foreign exchange headwinds and our willingness to accelerate and add to our partner and digital investments as we see opportunity are driving our decision not to increase our full-year EPS guidance despite our performance in Q1. There seems to be some question that we have lowered guidance for the year. As you can see, our full-year EPS guidance is completely consistent with last quarter despite the headwinds I just mentioned. Revenue growth is also expected to remain within our previous target range of 10% or greater on a 52-week basis with the 53rd week adding approximately 2 points to this figure. Given the strong comp performance we experienced this quarter, we remain confident in our ability to again deliver global comp sales growth somewhat above the mid-single digits for the year. We now expect investments in our partners and digital initiatives to total between $275 million and $300 million globally in 2016 compared to approximately $145 million in fiscal 2015. This slight increase from our previous guidance range is driven by digital projects and supported by the strong results we are seeing from our investments to date, and the significant opportunities that lie ahead for us. And by driving industry-leading comp growth, record revenues, record profitability and a reduction in partner attrition compared to a 5 point increase in attrition in the industry at large, these investments are continuing to pay off in a very big and demonstrable way. Noteworthy is that while our comp growth overall remains very strong in today's challenging retail environment, comps are the strongest in stores where partner attrition is the lowest, a function of the deep connection our partners build over time with our customers. And ROIC in Q1 increased by approximately 100 basis points, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of our investments are beating our targeted hurdle rates. This applies particularly to Mobile Order & Pay where our expected return continues to be several times our consolidated ROIC. We continue to expect consolidated operating margins for fiscal 2016 to increase slightly related to 2015 on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, reflecting strong revenue growth, sales leverage and increased operating efficiency and performance, partially offset by the impact of increased partner and digital investments. Moving onto commodities, with 2016 coffee needs nearly fully priced, we continue to expect a slightly favorable impact for the year. We are now beginning to price our coffee needs for fiscal 2017 and we'll provide updates as we lock in meaningful volumes. We continue to expect to add approximately 1,800 net new stores globally in fiscal 2016, 700 in the Americas, 900 in China Asia-Pacific and 200 in EMEA. The outlook for our effective tax rate continues to be between 34% and 35% and we still expect capital expenditures of $1.4 billion for fiscal 2016. Finally, we increased total cash returned to shareholders by more than 20% to over $500 million in Q1 and we have significantly and opportunistically increased our buyback activity since quarter end, given strong cash flows during the holiday period and recent equity market dynamics. Q1 of fiscal 2016 marks our seventh consecutive quarter of consolidated revenue growth in excess of 10%, our ninth consecutive quarter of operating margin in excess of 15%, and our 12 consecutive quarter of non-GAAP EPS growth greater than 15%. And we see significant opportunities to continue and as appropriate selectively increase or accelerate investments in order to support this historical level of performance as we drive annual revenues to the $21 billion mark. The key today, as always, is to identify and to balance the right combination of targeted disciplined growth across the business with the appropriate levels of investment necessary to drive and support such growth. Finally, what is particularly exciting is that, despite our recent record performance, we still have clear line of sight on multiple opportunities in each of our segments and around the world to further accelerate top-line growth and deliver outsized profits in the future. The team and the strategic framework we have in place together with our proven ability to execute gives us confidence that disciplined increases in the speed and size of our investments when the right opportunities present themselves is smart business and the right thing to do for our customers, partners and shareholders over the long-term. We look forward to updating you on our progress as we move throughout the year. With that, we will turn the call back to the operator for Q&A. Operator?