Mick McMullen
Analyst · FBR & Company. Please proceed with your question
Thanks Chris. We will just go to Slide 10, which is a sort of standard slide we put out, which allows people to sort of to see the various cost components of each operation and how they are tracking. Overall, a pretty good performance on both sides from costs per ton. I will just note that the mining costs at Stillwater Mine did go up quarter-on-quarter, very much driven by the tons milled reducing and actually that’s a good thing, because what that’s been attributed to has been, we have really had a big drive on dilution and we managed to reduce the amount of tons that we mine and mill and yet still get the same or more ounces out. So the overall absolute dollars spent on mining are about the same, but because we mine less ore tons, but still got the same ounces, our cost per ton went up slightly. Again, you will note there on the top line, East Boulder’s cost per ton came down quite significantly, again driven by the fact that we actually had a very strong performance from tons mined. Overall, pretty good result on our cost control. I think we continue to demonstrate that we are very cost disciplined and we think that as we improve productivity at both operations, we have further room to move on some of those costs. Moving to Slide 11, this is really the key metric that we measure the business on from a financial perspective, which is all-in sustaining cost. As I have mentioned earlier, another strong result, very similar to Q4, about $613 an ounce. And again, whenever I talk about an ounce, it’s a mix of platinum and palladium in the ratio, approximately 3.4 to 1. We are maintaining a very disciplined approach to capital deployment. We think we are spending the amount of capital that is necessary to maintain the developed state of the mine. We in fact, continue – as we improve productivity, we continue to develop ahead of what our plan is. And all of our cost reductions have been achieved without the benefit of any currency. These are true operational cost reductions. So historically, we have put out aspirational goals in terms of where we would like our cost to be. Several years ago, 2 years ago, we said that we wanted to get to the low 700s. We achieved that. We then said that, in Q3 of last year, we wanted to get to the mid-600s. We have clearly achieved that for 2 quarters now. So I think our new goal that we would like to put out is that we want to get our all-in sustaining costs down into the mid to high-500s over the medium-term. There is a lot of work happening on that at the moment. We feel that that is a reasonable goal for us to set, but it will require us to get further productivity improvements over the operations in order to get there. Going on to Slide 12 then, productivity, we can measure productivity in many ways, but as I said, one of the ways we like to look at that is how many ounces per non-project employee per month are we achieving. And you can see from this graph that we have had a quite significant improvement in both operations over the last 2 years to 3 years in our productivity. And that’s come about really from a number of ways, reduced headcount, changing the way we mine, actually having a very strong focus on mining practices so that again we cut down on dilution. You can see there actually, 2016 Q1, we have seen East Boulder has again pulled ahead of the Stillwater Mine after the gap was closed a little bit in the previous quarter and very much driven by multiple records being broken at East Boulder in the first quarter. We still think there is room to move on this and when we look at the historical structural issue of the business, it has been low productivity. And that’s what we focused on, so a really good performance from both operations I think over the last couple of years, but we still believe that we can make some further improvements. Going to Slide 13, so we have got a couple of slides on Blitz here. Blitz, as I have said earlier is our mine development project. We are spending just over $200 million on that over a sort of a 4-year, 5-year period. And at the end of the quarter, we were around just over $80 million into that. It’s really is our key development project. We think that if we can accelerate the development and ramp up of this, it can really have a positive impact to shareholders. To that end, we have had a big push on increasing those advance rates. So when I say advance rates, that’s how many feet or meters a month of tunnel we excavate. We have so far in 2016, increased production rates there by about 45% versus the average of last year. And in the more recent past, we were well over the 50% mark. In order to bring this into reserve, we have to drill about from underground and so the 56 conventional drive is really the mine drill platform and so that’s the area where we are very focused on at the moment in terms of advancing that. And we have been drilling that out with two drill rigs from underground as quickly as we can. And you can see here on that little graphic on the right there, we have pulled out some of the ore grade mineralization drill results. We do have in the appendices at the back of this deck the full drill results. What we are seeing here is the grades are fairly consistent with what they call off-shaft material, which is the mineralization the mine was started on. It’s running in the order of 0.6 ounce to 0.7 ounce to the ton. And if you look at some of those areas there, we will be releasing the drill results by campaign or blocks, so each of those little black squares is a drill campaign that we have done. So there is a couple of key interesting things on this where the 50 East 8.9 block has had some quite reasonable drill results in it and that’s actually in an area that was thought to be barren, so that opens up some interesting potential for additional reserves in mining that were not previously planned. The 56 East 10.4, you can clearly see that we have got some very good drill results in that area. And I will call your attention to some of the results, such as 66.8 feet of 1.58-ounce to the ton and 33.6 feet at just over 1 ounce to the ton. These are sort of typical ballroom type intercepts. And for the people that have covered this company for a while, you will recall in the original off-shaft, these didn’t have the potential to produce a lot of ounces at relatively low cost. So this is very encouraging, it’s early days. But we will look to continue to release results by campaign or block as and when we complete the interpretation. The Blitz project consists of three almost distinct components. One is the 56 decline, which is where most of this drilling has been done from. The other is Tunnel Boring Machine, the TBM down on the 5,000. And the third component is the decline of the Benbow aimed, which is the far end of this project. The Benbow service work is underway. We are pushing on with that as quickly as we can and we will in the very near-term award a contract for a contractor to do the decline from the far end of the Benbow. And we are looking to accelerate production as much as we can here. At this stage, we expect first production in mid-’18, roughly. And when fully ramped up, the Blitz project will add 150,000 ounces to 200,000 ounces to our production. This production will primarily be growth for the first decade of its life, after which it will start to be a combination of growth and some replacement of the existing mine. Going to Slide 14, this really sort of shows the extent of this project as we step back out and see the whole straight length of it. You can see there is sort of the 56 East 10.4 block and the 56 East 8.9 block and you can see some of the surface drill results there. And you can understand from a scale why we have to drill this out from underground. It’s just not feasible to drill this thing out from surface at a surface elevation of 8,000 feet down to 5,000 feet, 5,500 feet. It’s just not feasible to drill that out to a reserve status from surface, so you have to drill this up from underground and you can also see the Benbow portal pad on the very far right side of that – all that long section and actually, there is a limit there of us doing the work there. So this is a very big project for us. We think it’s got the potential to be very exciting for shareholders. And as and when we get new information, we will continue to release it. Moving on to Slide 15, as we look at our asset base and prioritize what we can do for shareholders over the next say, 5 years to 10 years, we are looking at a conceptual lower East Boulder project. So, lower East Boulder is defined as all of the mineralization below the rile level on the 6,500 foot level. We do currently have a proven and probable reserve in that area of about 10.4 million tons of just under 0.4 ounce to the ton. And we are starting to pull together some plans as to how we may develop that effectively as a whole new operation. We are spending some money this year on some deep drilling to define where the ore body is below those reserves and to sort of come up with the optimal place where we may put some development. This thing is in early stage yet, but it is important, I think that we can demonstrate to shareholders that we actually have a very strong growth pipeline of things that we can be doing with our existing asset base. Going to the next slide, our Altar, which is Slide 16. We are looking at all alternatives to see how we realize value for shareholders there. We have seen a change of government in Argentina, which I think has definitely enhanced the country as an investment destination. We have spent some money on this project this year, just done a modest drilling program there. Just to test some of the other exploration areas. And this project, I think at the appropriate time will allow us to realize some reasonable value for shareholders. It does contain just over 8 million tons of copper and 6 million ounces of gold and I think it provides a bit of optionality for our shareholders. The next slide, Slide 17, our guidance we have left unchanged at this time. And if you look historically generally not changed our guidance this time of the year, if we look to do that, we would typically do that later on in the year. But again, if you look where we have come in, our all-in sustaining costs, we are – we have now had two quarters below the bottom end of our guidance. Our production for Q1 is tracking above on an annualized basis above our guidance. It was a very strong quarter for us. I will say that the second quarter to-date is also looking to be quite strong. So, we will look to evaluate these later on in the year. Going to Slide 18, I do get a lot of questions from shareholders on what’s happening with the market, the metals market, worldwide PGM prices being where they have been. If we look at the top part of this slide, the forecast supply and demand dynamics for platinum and palladium look to be very strong. There is a different scale on platinum and palladium, so actually the forecast deficit for palladium is about double that of platinum. So what we have seen happening in prices has very much not been driven by the underlying fundamentals particularly in January, but very much by speculative investors moving out of the metals. If we take the consensus estimates for broker, price forecast, actually both the platinum and palladium appear to have quite strong long-term price appreciation potential, in particular, palladium, which again will be driven by the significantly larger deficit in the palladium market. If we go to Slide 19, again looking at the consensus forecast. In general, most analysts are forecasting quite strong upside potential on a long-term basis. And if we look at the percentage of brokers forecasting the price range, particularly for palladium, we have 64% forecasting prices greater than $800 an ounce for the long-term and that’s all great for the long-term. However, we look at the price on a day-to-day basis and make sure that we spend accordingly based on what we can afford. As Chris said, even with the very poor prices we saw during Q1, we have maintained a very, very strong balance sheet. We continue to invest in the business and actually are looking to accelerate our spend on Blitz and we seem to be able to do that even with the very low prices by self funding. Going to Slide 20 on governance, so a couple of key items here. So, my contract has been extended by 2 years to the end of 2018, which provides some certainty for shareholders. Yesterday, we held the Annual Shareholder Meeting. We had very favorable voting results. The average board full vote was 96.7%. And I think also importantly, the advisory vote on executive comp came in with a 98.3% vote cast in favor. I think that demonstrates that the executive compensation is closely aligned with shareholder outcomes and that appears to be something that people are happy with. So, coming to the last Slide 21, just in summary, I think we have demonstrated some sustainable operational improvements in Q1 building on our Q4 result. I think when we delivered that very strong result in Q4 there was potentially some skepticism that, that was a sustainable run-rate for us. I think Q1 clearly demonstrates that it is. Productivity continues to improve at both mines. We have made some huge improvements quite frankly. But yet, when we look at other operations and best practice, we think that we still have some runway in front of us in terms of making further improvements. We have seen some very strong recycling volumes and that were extremely strong in Q1. We had expected that they may weaken a little bit in Q2. But to be honest, I think that actually, the volumes have continued very strongly during Q2 so far. Balance sheet, really very strong, strong liquidity position. I think we are being very disciplined the way we spend our money gives us a lot of optionality in the current marketplace and we are seeing some signs of metal price recovery. The PGM prices, particularly palladium, are starting to sort of reflect the fundamentals, again I think as opposed to where they were in the early part of Q1. And the current basket price of $707 was up significantly on where we were in Q1. So, I think our strategy hasn’t really changed. It’s continued to fix the underlying issues that we have had in the business. It’s continued to get real and lasting change on our cost base. And we think that over time, the PGM basket price will continue to recover, which will see us have margin expansion. With that Rob, I think I would like to turn the floor over for any questions.