Jeffrey A. Stoops
Analyst · Dave Barden with Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As you have heard, we did have another great quarter, exceeding the high end of our guidance across almost all key financial metrics. Once again, we led our industry in many important growth metrics. Our organically leasing activity, which has been particular strong this year and materially ahead of our initial expectations, was once again the primary reason for our outperformance. We are experiencing strong demand across the entire portfolio, both domestic and international. We are seeing the benefits from that demand in both our leasing and services segments. We expect to benefit from continued solid levels of activity for the next several years as carriers build out their initial coverage footprints, to be followed by capacity spending as consumer adoption increases. Our customers have been very clear that network speed and quality is now and will remain a primary focus. There has been much commentary from our customers and peers about the current and expected growth in mobile data use. And much detail has been provided, so I won't repeat that here. I will point out a few product events that I find particularly exciting. The first is the iPhone 6 Plus as well as similar large-screen smartphones. With the larger screens, these devices will facilitate much more mobile video traffic than has previously been the case, putting further demands on networks. Next is Wi-Fi in the car. To provide that service, connection with a cellular network must be maintained. I think this will support additional infrastructure needs nationwide, particularly in less urban markets and highway corridors, where SBA is particularly strong. Third are the upcoming offering of connected watches. While initially touted as communications devices, many say the greater innovation and use will come in health care, where at some point we will all be able to monitor our vital signs real-time and noninvasively. That's all pretty exciting stuff and should certainly help support the need for additional wireless infrastructure going forward. It has been clearly proven over time that wireless data growth in a world of limited spectrum, if service quality is to be maintained, requires more equipment. It really is that simple. The path to better network speed and quality is more infrastructure, and we are seeing the results in our executed new leasing business and backlogs. As a result of anticipated continued strong demand from our U.S. and international customers, we are guiding to strong organic leasing growth again in 2015. In the third quarter, we once again experienced strong leasing demand across the entire portfolio. Same-tower cash leasing revenue growth was 14% on a gross basis and 11% on a net-of-churn basis, including iDEN-related churn. The U.S. led on a gross basis, followed closely by Brazil. On a net basis, Brazil led the company because there was no churn to speak of. These same-tower results were well ahead of our expectations and the primary reason for the increase to our 2014 outlook. We attribute our leasing success to a combination of quality assets, strong execution, good contracts and the excellent demand from our customers. In the third quarter, in the U.S., we executed high numbers of both new tenant leases and amendments. Amendment revenue once again made up the substantial majority of incremental leasing revenue in the U.S., approximately 70%. AT&T and Verizon continue to be very busy and represented, once again, the substantial majority of our new business in the quarter. We continue to have contributions from Sprint due to its Network Vision project and also now from the 2.5-gig project. T-Mobile remains active on its 4G upgrade, and T-Mobile activity has been accelerating as we have moved through the year. Our backlogs continue to be healthy. We continue to see strong activity in our international markets. Leasing activity is mostly new leases, but there is a growing amount of amendment activity. We had a big leasing quarter in Brazil. International cash leasing revenue and tower cash flow grew materially year-over-year, once again, primarily due to the portfolio growth. International tower cash flow margins were strong and only slightly behind those in the U.S., reflecting strong execution. I'm very pleased with the progress we have made in Brazil year-to-date and look forward to continuing our positive momentum. Next year, we expect to build materially more towers in Brazil. We continue to finalize leasing relationships with the carriers from which we expect an increase in our new leasing business. The Oi closing remains on track for December 1, and we expect to end the year with approximately 7,000 towers in Brazil, making us the second largest tower company in that market. We continue to follow carefully the potential for consolidation of wireless carriers in Brazil. Should it occur, it may be disruptive short term to the network development activities of those carriers involved. Long term, we believe it will improve the health of the market and lead to greater aggregate network investment. Our services segment produced another quarter of strong results for us in the third quarter, once again with the primary contributors being Sprint and T-Mobile, as well as increased activity levels with Verizon. We expect continued strong services segment contribution for the remainder of 2014 and through 2015. We have increased our services outlook for 2014. Our initial services outlook for 2015 is greater than what our initial 2014 outlook was, although less than our expected 2014 actual results. 2015 outlook for services reflects continued strength, but also some uncertainty as to the magnitude of Sprint's 2.5-gig activity in 2015. Our operational performance across the entire company was very strong in the third quarter. Strong tower cash flow and services margins drove our adjusted EBITDA margin to an industry-leading 67.5%, almost 300 basis points above the year-ago margin. We think to have produced that level of margin while growing materially internationally and increasing SG&A expense to manage that international growth is a real accomplishment. The strong adjusted EBITDA results we had in the third quarter drove our equally strong AFFO and AFFO per share results. As our initial 2015 guidance indicates, we expect another strong year. Our 2015 outlook contemplates between 9% and 10% same-tower cash revenue growth before iDEN terminations, which is the same level we guided to 1 year ago in our initial 2014 outlook but below the 13% gross growth rate we actually expect now for 2014. 2014 has been an unparalleled year for organic leasing activity, well above our expectations a year ago in terms of revenue added per tower. While we anticipate strong leasing activity for years to come, our 2015 guidance reflects a return to levels of growth similar to what we experienced in 2011, 2012 and 2013. On a net basis, our 2015 outlook also contemplates negative impacts of approximately 1% associated with FX rates as compared to rates experienced in 2014, and approximately $16 million to full-year leasing revenue associated with the 2015 iDEN lease terminations, representing a little more than 1% of our projected 2015 cash leasing revenue. 2015 will be our last year of meaningful iDEN churn. Within our 2015 site leasing revenue outlook, we have included non-iDEN churn of approximately 1.5%. This churn rate is within our typical assumed range of 1.0% to 1.5%. Our churn estimate is based on termination notices we have received to-date and an estimate of potential future churn that might impact our 2015 results for which we have not received any notice to-date. The assumed churn includes our estimate of potential terminations that have been or may be received with regard to legacy leases with Metro, Leap and Clearwire. We have had some acquisition-related churn with respect to these tenants since 2013, so we view it in the normal course. With regard to the legacy leases with these 3 tenants, they currently represent approximately $80 million of the company's total annualized cash site leasing revenue. A portion of this revenue was contemplated to churn off during 2015 and is reflected in our outlook. Based on amendments and extensions already received, communications with the parent carriers and our own internal analysis, we believe at least 1/3 of this $80 million will be retained long term. Incremental churn from these 3 carriers may keep our annual churn rate at the high end of our historical 1% to 1.5% range for the next 2 or 3 years. But we don't expect that there will be additional material impact to our future growth rates. We have included no material contribution in 2015 from DISH, Public Safety or any other customer that was not reasonably active in 2014. Please keep in mind that our 2015 outlook reflects site leasing revenue on a GAAP basis, while our tower cash flow adjusted EBITDA and AFFO outlooks are all on a cash basis. Total noncash leasing revenue in 2015 is estimated to be approximately $54.8 million compared to $57.4 million in 2014, a $2.6 million difference. As is our custom, our outlook includes only those towers we own, intend to build or have under agreement to acquire as of today, and we do not guide to any stock repurchases. We expect to end 2014 at the high end of our target range of 7.0 to 7.5 turns net debt annualized adjusted EBITDA, as we continue to settle for cash the warrants related to our retired 4% convertible notes so as to prevent any share dilution. Next year, we intend to continue our historical behavior of investing in either portfolio growth and/or stock repurchases to maintain leverage within our target range. We believe this behavior has created and will continue to create superior value over time. With respect to portfolio growth, we will look both domestically and internationally and believe that we will continue to find attractive opportunities that will meet our investment requirements. We are reaffirming our annual goal of 5% to 10% portfolio growth in 2015 while maintaining our target leverage levels. Our initial 2015 guidance reflects a lower percentage of portfolio growth, reflecting only those acquisitions we have under contract today. And if we are successful in consummating some additional acquisitions, I would expect our initial 2015 outlook to increase. Our initial 2015 guidance reflects a level of discretionary capital investment well below 2014 levels and well below our guided AFFO. We will have significant liquidity that could be deployed for additional asset growth and/or stock repurchases. Based on our estimated 2015 year-end run rate adjusted EBITDA, we could invest approximately an additional $1 billion into portfolio growth and still maintain our target net debt annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage levels. Our access to capital and balance sheet are both in great shape. Our undrawn $770 million revolver and anticipated AFFO generation are more than sufficient to fund pending and plenty of additional investment activity. We have no refinancing obligations prior to 2017. If we pursue additional investments, as is our goal, those would, as necessary, likely be funded with additional debt financing, which is currently readily available to us at attractive rates. Our recently completed $1.54 billion tower revenue securities issue is a great example of our market acceptance. With that offering, we have established a debt structure that compares very comfortably with our peers as to weighted average, rate, tenor and percentage fixed rate, although we choose to operate at materially higher leverage. We intend to continue our balance sheet strategy and leverage targets as we believe them to contribute materially to shareholder value creation. In the aggregate, we believe our initial 2015 outlook is strong, with potential opportunities for improvements throughout the year, just as has happened in 2014. Our focus next year is straightforward: execute well against the favorable macro environment; add quality growth assets; and continue to take advantage, if necessary, of what is expected to be a favorable financing market. We expect to once again produce material growth across a number of key metrics, including growth in AFFO per share. Before we open it up for questions, I want to recognize the contributions of our employees and customers to our success. Our employees worked really hard to achieve the goals for our customers. Our employees do a great job. Our customers recognize that. And as a result, we are a preferred provider for our customers' network needs. Our customers are and, we think, will remain extremely busy in improving and expanding their wireless networks. We look forward to continued success as we finish this year and move into 2015. Laurie, at this time, we'll take some questions.