Hamid Akhavan
Analyst · Citi
So for EchoStar, two things that we can point you to. One is that as we go forward, we'll report our enterprise backlog and these are booked, committed contracts. These are not just funnel activities. These are sold. And I think you should keep a close eye on that and as we will report our progress on a quarterly basis. And as you look at that, you could see the trend of revenue in the future. I mean this is different, our consumer. Consumer has a disadvantage that you really don't know the trend in a very long horizon. But in enterprise, you actually see that. One of the advantages of the enterprise business is that it can grow in very large chunks. For instance, if there is a – it's possible to – within a year sign a, or within a quarter $0.5 billion enterprise over there. But how long does it take to get $0.5 billion consumer revenue, right? I mean, so enterprise can grow very, very large, in very quick steps. So, first of all, we encourage you to take a look at our backlog and carefully examine that because that shows that the trend a few years down the road will be – how much of our business is going to be enterprise revenue and how much of it is going to be consumer. We're not putting any projections today, but we've given some of the – one of the biggest drivers, which is the backlog, is the biggest proof of the future benefits. And we try to be more precise with that as we go forward. We try to give you a little more timing as we are finding that useful to you and ourselves, will certainly will disclose more of that potentially in second half of this year, beginning of next year. So, that's one. The second one is as it comes to the S-band development. Look, one of the most – the timing in this industry, as you're well aware, to develop satellite systems takes several years. And so, we – that's what we call this Horizon 3. You should start seeing as of 2026, 2027, the biggest impacts, potentially first impacts are shown up. And this is not just because of the satellites, but also please think that to provide direct-to-device for devices that are 5G compliant and Release 17 3GPP compliant for direct-to-satellite, those devices, the chipsets are just beginning to be manufactured, starting now. That will take a 1.5 years cycle for the chipsets to be ready, then it takes another year for the chipsets to get to the phone, so phones get out to the market. And on the very first day when then phones are introduced, I mean, that's not a too many phones. I mean that, that very day, the small number of phones are released, right, for that base to grow, it takes another year. So, when you add that up, you're talking about 4-year window, 3-year window from here, 3- or 4-year window. And that's exactly the same window that the satellites will take to be prepared. These are hundreds of satellites in large sizes to be produced and so as I said, this will be vastly impactful in the second half of this decade. I would say, starting with 2027 time line, you should expect to see very material, meaningful revenues from them forward. By the way, that is only related to the big 5G wideband. In between, we have the LiDAR constellation, which as of 2024, which is just next year, 12 months from now, potentially 18 months from now, we will be generating revenues from that system in between, while we get to the larger system. I hope that gives you a bit of a road map for where we think the revenues will fall. And we hope to give you more information, again, potentially end of this year, beginning of next year as we solidify our segment reporting and some of these plans.