Jure Sola
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Bob. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to add few comments and an update to the first quarter results and the future forecast. Number one, I'll talk about the revenue breakdown by end markets, talk about our second quarter outlook and I'll give you a business update and visibility for calendar year 2011. Then Bob and I and Hari will open for Q&A. So now please turn to Slide 9. Here I'm going to review the first quarter breakdown, but also give you a forecast for second quarter, what we call March quarter. First of all, our top ten customer has a total 49% of our revenue. We also have two customers that were a 10% plus, that mainly coming from Communications and Networks (sic) [Communications Networks]. Well, let me make a comment, more details in each of these markets. First of all, Communications Networks consisted of 48% of revenue. Here, we focus in networking, wireline and wireless infrastructure type of product. This group grew approximately 3.5% quarter-over-quarter. Networking and wireless business continues to be very strong for us. If we just compare it on a yearly basis, this business grew approximately 60% year-over-year. As we look at the second quarter, in the long term, we still look at these markets to be very strong. For the second quarter, we're forecasting at this time flat, maybe slightly down on the revenue point of view. But let me give you some more insights for the rest of the calendar year 2011. We believe this market is going to continue to grow strongly in 2011. And this is mainly driven by some of the changes that going on in the market. There's a lot of changes and new technology, so if you just look at some of the latest products that will be in shipping, like in optical side of our business 4G systems, that is doing really well. And we continue to introduce now 100G system. Those type of systems will continue to drive the revenue for us for rest of 2011 and beyond. Also, the rollout of the 4G LT (sic) [4G/LTE] rollouts what we call in industry, we're well involved there. A lot of good customers, so we expect that type of technology to contribute to our revenue as we look in 2011 and beyond. If you look at the whole group here, we're well diversified, not just by the products itself, but also the customers that we are involved. We offer very strong value to our customer as we continue to invest in a new technology that will allow us to continue to gain market share in this side of the business. Again, we are winning the new businesses and these businesses are all about the new technologies that's going to drive Communications Networks markets for us for many years to come. Now let me talk to you about Enterprise Computing & Storage. Last quarter, that was approximately 13.5% of our revenue. First quarter was down 2.7%. If you look at the quarter-over-quarter comparison, demand if you look in this market for us, last three quarters was weak, mainly driven by old programs. Some of these programs are going to end of the life. As we look at in the second quarter, I believe this business is going to start to stabilize so we'll forecast second quarter's flat to potentially up. We expect also to see nice growth in calendar year 2011, mainly starting the third quarter and beyond. And this will be driven by the new programs that we've been winning in the last two, three quarters. Also Sanmina is introduced in the last six months, our own product and storage product, what we call CDMA custom design product ODM. This is for high-end storage boxes. We're starting to ship this product and we think we got a pretty good demand going on if you look at 18 months out. So we believe it's a good future opportunity for us. If you look at the whole market, what we call Enterprise Computing & Storage, which is the high end of the servers and storage product, we believe this group will play a bigger role for our growth in 2011 and beyond than it did in the last four quarters. Now let's go now to Industrial, Defense and Medical. That was 24.6% of our revenue last quarter and that was also, quarter-to-quarter basis, slightly down, about 1.7% down. In that group, we have Medical, Defense and Aerospace and Industrial, let me talk to you about each of them. Medical, actually was very strong for us. On a quarterly basis, that was up about 9%. Industrial was flat. Dus [ph] is the really only business that was down and that was down about 20%. The main reason in the Dus [ph] being down last quarter, we have some existing program that the demand was pretty weak last quarter. So as we forecast second quarter, I would call that group to be flat, potentially up. Defense and Aerospace business, we're forecasting up next quarter. Industrial also should go slightly up. And Medical, I would say it will be flat, maybe slightly down. I think medical for next quarter, to me, it's more timing than anything else. But let me also make a little bit more comments what we see rest of the year. As we look at the third quarter 2011 and calendar year 2011, this group should continue to grow nicely, as I said, starting in the third quarter, driven mainly again by Medical. In Medical, we should see a strong demand for a diagnostic imaging product, patient monitoring systems and respiratory products and other products that we'll be working on in 2010. So we won a lot of new programs in 2010 in the Medical and I believe those things will start helping us improve in our revenue in 2011. Industrial, mainly focus here on a clean tech and semiconductor products. I believe we're well positioned here. We have a lot of good opportunities on front of us and we expect the calendar year 2011 to continue to expand. Back to the Defense and Aerospace, again, we expect this business to start to improve next quarter, but hopefully that based on our plans and what we see sequentially each quarter, we should see some improvements and hopefully exit the calendar year 2011 in a lot better position than what is today. So a lot of focusing here because our Defense and Aerospace business has a lot of potential and I'll talk about later more than that. Multimedia, approximately 14% of our business and last quarter that business was down about 14.4%. In that group, in Multimedia group, we have automotive, set-top boxes and some other equipment there, what we call Multimedia. Automotive actually was very strong, but I would say the rest of them, multimedia products, we had a few -- two major customers that the temporary, their demand is pretty weak. So as we look at the next quarter, we believe this business will be flat, mainly driven by Automotive, Automotive should be nicely up. Rest of the businesses, we don't see major recovery in the Multimedia until second half of our calendar year 2011. I think it's mainly, as I said earlier, weak demand with couple of our customers there, and we do expect that business to turn around. So it's a timing here for us more than anything else at this time. Now, I would like you to turn to Slide 10 and I will talk about our outlook. As Bob mentioned, we expected these first two quarters to be kind of flat when you compare them to the fourth quarter of our fiscal year 2004, but we're starting to see a good demand in the second half. So revenue outlook for second quarter is $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion. We expect gross margin to move in the right direction, 7.9% to 8.1%. Operating expenses should be around $64 million. Operating margin should come in between 4% and 4.2%. Interest expense and other should come around $26 million to $27 million. Depreciation, amortization is about $25 million. On CapEx, last quarter, we spent about $28 million. This coming quarter, the second quarter, we're planning to spend about $30 million for equipment, mainly for new equipment, and for the whole year, we're still planning to spend around $100 million. Tax rate should be in the range of 15% to 17%, and diluted shares outstanding should be approximately 83 million to 84 million shares. And we're also forecasting non-GAAP EPS of $0.40 to $0.43 next quarter. What I would like to do now is really give you a little bit more insight of our business, what's going on, and visibility for calendar year 2011. 90 days ago when we had this conference call, I think at that time, we're a little bit concerned about economy. That's what we're hearing from our customers, but I can tell you that we feel a lot better about global economy today. I'm not economist, as you know that, but I can tell you that visibility and the forecast are giving us some more confidence about the calendar year 2011 than what we had 90 days ago. Outlook for us is more positive. First quarter results and second quarter results support our view of a flat first half of our fiscal year 2011. In the second half of our fiscal year 2011, we see stronger forecast and expect to deliver revenue growth and large margin expansion in third quarter and remainder of fiscal year 2011. Our strategy is working. We still believe that our long-term goals for operating margin of 6-plus percent is attainable. And I believe we talked about it last quarter that if the economy continues to improve, we believe that we have potential to exit calendar year 2011, which is December quarter for us, with operating margin for our total business around 5%. We still believe that today. And I know there is some question out there, it's okay, how Sanmina is going to get through these numbers? So what I like to do is share with you some of our key points from our strategy how we're going to get there, how we're going to meet our goals. First of all, our strategy is differentiated. We've been working now in this strategy, and this is not just shutting down bunch of manufacturing plants around the world and say this is a new strategy. Our new strategy is really focus on project that will drive more sustainable growth and deliver, look for for opportunities that can deliver us better industry margins. So that's the key focus. Focusing on key markets, providing leading solution and partnering with our key customers. I think we accomplished that and I think we got a foundation that we can build on that. We also have been developing our component capabilities. I know there's a lot of focus strictly in the Circuit Boards, but we really widened our components technologies. Let me give you some highlights. We're providing leading component technology solution to these key markets and these key customers that I'm talking about. So for example, if you just look at the optical components. Two years ago, we had a basically zero revenue in optical components. Our revenue in optical components today is approximately $500-plus million run rate. So great accomplishment. We took some time to invest in these businesses, we're building these businesses and they're starting to deliver some good margin. But they have a lot of room for growth to get up, what I'd say the industry margin goals, and I'll talk about it later on. Printed Circuit Boards and backplanes, yes, we have some challenges, I think. Today, it's all about the growth and growing these factories that we have, and we continue to invest in some of these key technologies. Enclosures including precision machining and frames, well positioned globally on that. We continue to expand our memory modules, which today not just focus on the memory module, but also has its own product that focus in solid state drive, what we call internally SSD solution. As I mentioned earlier, Defense business for us, what we call Defense and Aerospace, is very critical to the future of this company. But we're changing -- not changing, but we're including a strategy that we had there for a long time, is we're expanding the products here, not just focusing on EMS services. So we've been shipping our products to this market directly to the end user. We continue to invest, so we're really changing the model in our Defense and Aerospace business. I mentioned about earlier, we introduced a fair amount of product in our storage and server business, which what we call custom-design and ODM products. We believe that we have a good potential there, and other products that I'm not even ready to talk about today. So we are building a different EMS company than what Sanmina was in the last five years. Going back, what I would call to the roots, where we are focusing on the strong customer relationship, offering the unique technology, and really focusing on the products that will make us a different company. So we also focus, as I've said, on a long-term product mix to make sure we improve those. Traditionally, EMS, yes, but in those traditional, we're going to focus on the key markets and the key customers that have a requirements for high-end, higher-technology products. I just mentioned technology components group. Dus [ph] and Aerospace, and again, and some other CDMA, the ODMA (sic) [ODM] product that were going to be coming at the high-end markets. So if you kind of analyze what's the margin potential in these businesses, I think we, as an industry, we have a little bit different strategies, we all have a different strength and weaknesses and we focus where we have a strength. When it comes to the margin, margins are driven by markets. We, as a supplier to those markets, we basically adjust to them, make sure that we can compete in those areas where the customer is willing to give us a chance to grow in those higher product lines. So, for example, if you look at EMS high-end technology products, the companies out there are doing this and we're doing it ourselves in certain products, those type of margin should be around 5-plus percent. If you look at technology component companies, including optical component companies, high-end printed circuit boards, high-end backplane, they had delivered an operating margin 8% to 10% industry today. If you look at the custom-designed products especially for high-end stuff, there is about 10% to 15% operating margin. And then aftermarket services, operating margin 6% to 10%. So those are the businesses that we are uniquely positioned, and we're driving these margins to that level. And that's why the way we focus and what we are doing today, we have more confidence, assuming that the company cooperates with us, then we have a pretty good chance to exit the calendar year 2011 around 5%. But let me give you a couple more comments, what are the key drivers for our margin expansion. Again, as a management, we have to continue to improve our efficiencies. We're working very hard to improving our mix and sustainable revenue growth. That's combination of mix and revenue that are sustainable for many years to come. Continue to leverage our Components and expand our Components and grow where they need to be. There's a lot of work still to be done. And we know that. But we believe that it's still right strategy to continue to move in that. And of course, continue to utilize our capacity. As you know, we do have extra capacity around the world. So if I kind of analyze the whole product lines, both from EMS components and the products, I still believe there's a lot of work done in each of these fields. But we are very confident as a management that every one of these businesses will see nice growth and nice financial improvements in calendar year 2011. So in summary, I am optimistic about our future. And I believe that we're well positioned to grow revenue and achieve our operating margin and EPS goals for fiscal year 2011. So now, I would like to, again, thank you all for your support and time today. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication and their support. Operator, we are now ready to open the lines for questions and answers. Thanks again.