Earnings Labs

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN)

Q3 2007 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 26, 2007

$12.04

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Transcript

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, it's not really necessary to do an impairment because the evaluation of the goodwill is not related to the share price. It's related rather to the capacity for generating profit and the value of the assets that is the value of the bank, so that's the first idea I have to express. But from a technical point of view the impairment is not necessary unless there is a clear reduction in the capacity to generate profit. But I think the goodwill is going to be reviewed at the end of the year. That's when we'll have to take any decisions on this matter. But we have... you must understand that all these write-off are also done on the basis of the P&L, so that they have no effect on the capital because goodwill has already been subtracted from the capital, so it has no... there is no impact here.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Also, there is a question for UBS, about our appeal to the market and financing during the third quarter, this had [ph] a good access to the market and they would like to know about the appeal process.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I'm going to pass this floor to my colleagues who will answer better.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, it's true that after the subprime crisis in early August, liquidity in the markets was seriously damaged, especially in products that are related to credit that is securitization and it's also true that spreads in seeing and secure and mortgage certificates have reduced considerably, and we've already stated the liquidity position in investors day. We are a bank that finances itself in a conservative way, the wholesale financing has an average life of 4.5 years and placement in short-term markets, commercial paper etcetera, deposits certificates, etcetera, although necessary and limited and we were net lenders in the interbank market and I think, even after the operation of ABN, our position continues to be very good. We are still net lenders in the interbank market and we have done some operations, and market open, the prices are rising with the operation in subordinated debt have a significant employment [ph] 4 billion at high prices, so we are not talking about a lack of liquidity, so much as larger credit spreads. And during this period, basically we could say that we have financed ourselves with the excess liquidity we had and also some issues in the short-term. And finally, we have been able to place some securitization in the market, basically in drive during this period from September to October. We've placed $1.1 million sorry and basically I am referring to the subprime sector where we have been able to place $1.1 million in securitization in the market at higher prices than we had in July. And so we have this winnings [ph] in liquidity, so the liquidity environment is one of the wider spreads rather than lack of liquidity.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay, there are also some questions from different banks on ABN and the possible financing through rights issue. Because of the equity position, we had number of months ago and also the enlargement after the issue of convertibles?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, there is no change in projections that we gave on I think the 20 of May or so, when we spoke in London. We issued 7000... 7 billion, sorry, we have a total of 3.3 billion and the next issue is going to be soon, probably, obviously before the end of the your, but it was not yet decided exactly, what date is it going to take place. But we're still waiting according to same basic promise, the same basic ideas that we have been updated both basically what we have been doing is being to concern our projections.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Also, there is a question from Antonio Ramirez [ph] about the rest of the Continental European and Latin America, where there has been a slow down, quarter-on-quarter and negative performance in comparison with last year, could you explain this please?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, in Latin America, I am very clear about this because in Latin America, there has been a poor performance in Puerto Rico in the third quarter and as the financial manager already stated in Latin America, last year during this period in 2006, we had some capital gains of as a result of the sales in Bolivia and Peru and obviously these two effects taken together in comparison with the third quarter of 2006, this has resulted in the poor results. In Europe, nothing special has happened really, perhaps the effect comes more from the movement in hotel banking, where in the third quarter of 2006, there was some very strong corporate operations, which resulted in a strong growth in revenue, as you may remember and it's also true that we had low provisioning, specially in the genetic products and we have been able to recover during the first and second quarters. But if we are talking about operating margin, operating profits, well, that's probably the effect of the slowdown in the third quarter, in comparison with 2006. Overall, but I think, this might have a lot to do with the operations that took place in Spain also in the third quarter. In Europe rather, including Spain in the third quarter of 2006, which to some extent, because they didn't take place with the same degree of intensity, in 2007 this might be the reason for the slowdown in profits. But the attributed profit in the third quarter of 2007 was 106%. Now the figure is 98%. So we are talking about figures that are really very high for growth in attributed profit in Europe, over these two periods.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

There are three questions from Harpreet Parhar [ph]. Firstly, can you update the cost of implementing the MiFID standards in 2007? What do you think is going to be the impact of these in 2008? And the second question is, if the increase in equity premium... in both the regions can be transferred to rest of Latin America in 2008. And the third question is when do you expect consolidation on a global level of [indiscernible] and there are number of economists asking about when we are going to be consolidating all of this and what are we going to be during the division of the assets?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The last question, on the, question of consolidation is going to be... that's going to take place as soon as we have done the legal separation of [indiscernible] from ABN and as a result of the agreement amongst the four supervising boards, we are basically doing the equity method and all, any area for global consolidation Israel. We are talking about the MiFID. Well, the fact is, I don't know what that cost of MiFID is, it's certainly very costly in the work, but I don't know how much in cost in money. And the impact... well, I too would like to know what the impact is going to be. I hope it is going to be the same for all of us. I'm clear about that. And Dominic [ph] subjects were Puerto Rico, I don't think we can really transfer that but in the rest of [ph] May for 2008, Puerto Rico is in a recession. It's showing negative growth. At least we don't think, this situation could be applied to the rest of Latin America in 2008 and certainly it's very from the consensus.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And there is a question from Deutsche Bank about ratio of non-performing loans in Spain, why is it rising and how can we see fit this in with the level of provisions, which is not too high over the quarter?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, the increase rose in September and commercial of June. In June we had an impaired ratio of 0.51 then it was 0.56, so it rose by 5 base points. I don't think this is a very high rise. I think it's a very small rise quite offset. Also we have provisions that we've stated in investor day with regard to risk premium, which are sitting very well in the overall situation now, level of provisioning I think is more than comfortable, we could say.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Now question from Upendra Choudhury from the analyst on to the rate of Brazil intergroup after consolidation, which is going to reach about 20%. Are we concerned about this rate? Do we think it's appropriate considering that this is for an individual country within Latin America? And the second part of the question is, could we say something about growth in credit in Brazil in the shorter medium term and to what extent can we maintain that level of growth.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, I think we've had great news. It's not a matter of concern. It's really great news, because we have an opportunity in a country like Brazil which is a country that is growing tremendously. It has a tremendously dynamic situation and it's going to enter investment grade soon. And ahead of it, I think it has very positive prospects in both growth, macroeconomic growth and banking growth and therefore, it's going to offer tremendous opportunities for generating business and I think there is no element of concern in the short-term. It's just a question of having the necessary diversification, which we already have and we have certain components in the continent of Europe in islands in the Europe that is U.K. and also in countries with high levels of growth. Our position is tremendously good and what we have seen in Brazil and in the operations in Brazil, I think we are noting positive elements rather than elements of concern. It's quite the opposite. I think there is really a lot of opportunities there, so what's our prospects for growth. Well, if the macro situation in Brazil continues to be positive as we can think it will continue to be, then I think the demand for growth or the demand for credit rather for the speaker will continue to rise markedly above 20%, which is the current level of growth. I think it's going to grow between 20% and 30% and the increase in credit, well I think the figure that's a figure doesn't matter, but I think certainly all of this is going to give tremendous impetus to the banking business and to our results. And so therefore I think it's very good news but it is something that is reasonably sustainable. And I do hope that over the next few years, it will be a source of great satisfaction for the group. We are working on it.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay. There is a question about our stakes in sovereign and Sepsa from Kana Norimoto from the Citigroup. Are we planning to sell our stake in sovereign and can you update what the divestment plan is for Sepsa, and any potential capital gains?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The first question it is no. We are not planning to sell our stakes in sovereign and the second is that obviously, as we have said repeatedly our stake in Sepsa is currently an investment, which is available for sale and when we have more precise information, we will give it to you. But right now there is no additional news to be discussed.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay there are two questions from Louis McGarry and Quentin Soza from European Dynamo Capital [ph] with regards to synergies in Brazil and the part of both revenue and costs.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

There is a presentation about these synergies on the website, but if you can't find it, you can get in touch with us and we will give you the details.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

There is a question from Louis Pinya [ph] from DB about the selling of our real estate while we close it with the announced capital gains of 1 point some billion and when?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well as I said in my presentation, this is a subject that is still ongoing. We have had some offers for all the real estate that we have put on sale. They would be studied to some of very good offers actually and so I expect the operation to go through. When, very soon. That's a decision that must be made by the bank when the time comes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

All right. Mario Lowes [ph] from UBS Securities. Several questions, first says he is positively surprised by the evolution in customer spreads in the third quarter versus the second especially when compared with competition in Spain in two quarters with increase of those spread by 50 basis points, and he wanted to know if that's a price effect or a business mix effect? He is also asking about the new loans to SMEs and new mortgage-backed loans for SMEs and the other types of loans, new loans?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

We can explain about those later, if you like.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And then they are asking about the evolution of the income in the corporate headquarters and also the impact of the depreciation of the dollar on our accounts, both consolidated accounts and the corporate headquarters?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Very well, I am going to give the analyst from UBS Securities just a flavor of what's happening in this third quarter 2007 in Spain. I said... it's true, it has been very good in comparison with our other competitors, but that's because of the good management of our spreads mostly and if we look forward, we are not actually pessimistic, but quite the contrary, we are quite optimistic, because although it's true that the business will be slowing down in terms of lending volumes because there is a less of a demand for credit and in 2006 or even in first quarter 2007, we have seen a slowing down in the demand, we are not growing at 20% anymore. It's more at 15% or 16%, so we are seeing a slight slowing down of the business, but we are also at the same time seeing a very clear improvement in our spreads for several reasons, different courses for that. That is as far as lending. On customer funds obviously comparing interest rates now, is also 2006 it has a positive impact on customer funds and as a result, we are over all seeing a very beneficial evolution of our spreads, but there is delivery management on the part of our branch network in terms of selecting the right product mix and right price or spread targets. Of course, there is a slowing down of the mortgage business, but at same time we are seeing growing activity with SMEs in general. It's the business that they are not of course, is also a contributor to these results we have mentioned.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

All right. There is a question about the revenue at corporate headquarters and the impact of the depreciation of the dollar.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, in the corporate headquarters, as I explained as you know, we have a short-term dollar position, long-term euro position and overall in the three quarters that has generated about 200 million impacting the ROF of the corporate center and in the last quarter, it's been about 170 million more or less and that explains the movements in the corporate center, which is I think the only part of the group, which has significantly changed.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Abdoulaye Friest [ph] has several questions. He is asking about provisioning in Latin America, which is growing and can we explain our expectations for that market. He is asking about dollar hedging in, I think Q4. We have 4%... 100% euro dollar hedging sovereign. He is asking that's already been answered and the capital enlargement too, so really just provisioning in Latin America.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Right. I don't really think there is going to be or has been specific circumstance beyond the growth of the business to explain the growth of provisions. Our business in Latin America is growing very strongly, both lending and customer funds if there might be some minor element, perhaps greater acceleration of investment funds in some countries and deposits of that may on fees, even perhaps it could also be in effect of the change of our asset mix, which will also generate more fee income. The credit card impact, of course in Mexico and perhaps in some other countries may also have an effect, but really what we are seen in Latin America as I have already explained, is that the business is growing extremely strongly and that growth is accelerating, both those contribute fees and those that contribute net interest income are launched in Santander global connect in Latin America and that's generating fee income. The insurance business in Latin America is growing very strongly. It's accelerating as it did, when we launched the input to go on Spain. And that's also having an impact on our fee income. So it's probably a combination all our fees effects. More insurance, more Santander global connect, more investment funds, all of these elements are contributing to this growth in our fee income and revenues.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Nigel Sanapa [ph] has several questions, most of them have already been answered, there is maybe two left. He is asking about deceleration of growth in Spain versus our deceleration versus that of our competitors. He wonders whether we are still comfortable with our target of plus 11% to 12% in our revenues for 2008. And that's for generic and specific provisions, how they will involve in Spain in the fourth quarter?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, the final part of your question whether we're comfortable with that 10%, 11%, 12%, 14% or even 15% target growth, I would say yes we are. Absolutely, I don't think that we are going to be content with 10% next year. We aspire to grow in our revenue in Spain by well above 10%. So we are comfortable with our target and what we said in the investor day, I can't remember of top of my head. But I think we were talking about something in fact slightly higher than these numbers. So yes, we stand by that. And the other question, sorry it slipped my mind.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Generic and specific provisions, how they will evolve in Spain?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, my forecast for provisions... generic at current less, because they are connected to volume and since volume is growing less, generic provisions will grow less and that's just logical. And for specific, there is a slightly greater growth but that's highly connected to what we have been saying and seeing slightly higher risk premiums and cost of credit, but not significantly in any case.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And there is a question about decisive UBS versus the size of the book in driving your provisions against that book?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The size of the book is $4.5 billion, basically that's the drive book and it's a business, which basically has... well, it's a business where you have a lot of non-performing loans are provisions are $205 million and the NPO's generally represent $160 million, however, the charge has been $395 million because the NPO ratio in Drive is actually very high, so the impact on the P&L $395 million, but actual non-performing loans at the year end is a $160 million, so we have saying quarter-on-quarter that the performance of Drive is actually surpassing our expectations and in fact the NPO ratios have been in line with the losses expected in this business, which are significantly higher than that of any other business in our portfolio.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

All right. Two questions from Eva Mendes [ph] from Morgan Stanley and John Batchuarov [ph] from Merrill Lynch, both along the same lines. You partly answered some of these but it's basically about how we will account for our holding in the RCS consortium and what the capital target is for year end and the impact of integration on the capital... on the core capital?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

We've already partly answered this but for our CSS 10%, we'll use equivalency messing until there is full legal incorporation, so whatever it is right now before the separation from ABN AMRO and then for integration. As for their capital structure, there are two stages, there is an intermediate stage in coordination of course with the accounting of the stake, but in the period when we were using the equivalency method, we will have and after also on impact to goodwill and our core capital, but then one-on-one subtraction of a theoretical accounting value since it's higher than 10% of our equity use subtracted from the Tier 2, on the one-on-one. That's why we issued that subordinate debt two weeks ago. And so in that intermediate period that's the way it's going to work, and then it will be global integration and it would be like any other element. You will integrate the assets globally, so it will consume capital because of the risk assets we are integrating which are 65, 60 depending a bit on the growth. And then there will be the goodwill, which would be subtracted from the Tier 1 capital. So we have published the figures, the post-integration figures for ABN AMRO. We are talking about our core capital of 5.3, which will probably be slightly higher because I remember that we haven't included in that 5.3 a wholesale of the pension fund business in Latin America, which has an impact of 26 points on the core capital. So we will be at that level that we had announced then.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Right, there is a final question from Mark Cortrianna [ph] from Standard & Poor's. And he is saying that fee income both in Spain and Portugal are tending to stabilize year-on-year and are actually dropping, comparing the fourth... the third quarter with the second. What's the reason? What do we expect for fourth quarter?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, we have had as a consequence of a deliberate policy reduction in our fee income because of our policies in Spain and Portugal we see... we want to be a bank plan and also the special accounts that have been launched in Portugal with those same objectives. Point two, also we have had a slight change in our customer fund policy, less mutual funds, more product of other types, which don't really generate deposits for instance, which don't generate commissions or fee incomes. So there is an impact of that and then also a really seasonal impact, but there is nothing really too significant. There has been no major event or change versus our trends over the last quarters, not just this last quarter but the four or five last quarters.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Okay. That's all from the internet. Thank you. Any additional question that have not been answered, you can contact us at any time. Thank you.