Earnings Labs

Rayonier Inc. (RYN)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 30, 2020

$21.50

+0.54%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.39%

1 Week

+2.25%

1 Month

+11.35%

vs S&P

-0.98%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome, and thank you for joining Rayonier’s Third Quarter 2020 Teleconference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Today’s conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I will turn the meeting over to Mr. Collin Mings, Vice President, Capital Markets and Strategic Planning. Sir, you may begin.

Collin Mings

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Rayonier’s Investor Teleconference covering third quarter earnings. Our earnings statements and financial supplement were released yesterday afternoon and are available on our website at rayonier.com. In these presentations, we include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Our earnings release and SEC filings list some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements we may make. They are also referenced on Page 2 of our financial supplement. Throughout these presentations, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to the nearest GAAP measure in our earnings release and supplemental materials. With that, let’s start our teleconference with opening comments from Dave Nunes, President and CEO. Dave?

Dave Nunes

Analyst

Thanks, Collin, and welcome aboard. I’ll begin the call by making some high level comments before turning it over to Mark McHugh, our Senior Vice President and CFO, to review our consolidated financial results. Then we’ll ask Doug Long, Senior Vice President, Forest Resources to comment on our U.S. and New Zealand timber results. And following the review of our timber results segments, Mark will discuss our real estate results as well as our outlook for the remainder of 2020. We generated adjusted EBITDA of $67 million and pro forma net income of $7.5 million or $0.06 per share in the third quarter. We delivered strong operating results across our three regional timber segments, as well as within our real estate business. Despite facing some ongoing challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, we benefited from robust new residential construction activity, continued strong repair and remodel spending, improve demand from key export log markets, and strong market dynamics for our pulpwood customers. Our collective results underscore the strength of the markets we operate in, the diversity of our portfolio and the resiliency of our business. Despite strong operating results, we had to navigate multiple casualty events during the quarter, including Hurricane Laura in the U.S. South, as well as wildfires in Oregon. Our thoughts go out to all those who were affected by these tragic events. While we sustained some property damage, fortunately, no Rayonier employees were injured. From an operational standpoint, we expect only limited near-term disruptions to our business, given the geographic diversity of our footprint. While the direct impact to us was limited, we’ve taken steps to help those communities get back on their feet through financial donations to disaster relief efforts. Drilling down to our different reporting segments, our Southern Timber segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $26…

Mark McHugh

Analyst

Thanks, Dave. To start, I’d like to briefly comment on the write-offs this quarter associated with Hurricane Laura and the wildfires in Oregon. In total, these casualty events resulted in write-offs of $15 million, of which approximately $8 million was attributable to Rayonier and the balance was attributable to the non-controlling interest in the Timber Funds business. We have included these charges as a pro forma item in our third quarter results due to the nature of these events and the infrequency with which they materially impact our results. As it relates to our Southern Timber segment, Hurricane Laura made landfall in Louisiana on August 27, impacting nearly 8,000 acres of our timberland properties in the state. We anticipate being able to salvage approximately 1,000 acres based on existing mill quotas and the condition of the damaged timber. As a result of the hurricane, we wrote-off timber basis in the amount of $6 million during the quarter. Moving to the Oregon wildfires, our Timber Funds segment was directly impacted by two fires during the quarter, specifically the Beachie Creek fire in Northwest Oregon impacted roughly 9,000 acres of land owned by ORM Timber Fund II, and the Slater fire in Southwest Oregon impacted about 1,000 acres of land owned by ORM Timber Fund IV. Rayonier manages both funds and owns a 20% economic interest in Fund II and a 15% interest in Fund IV. Based on our latest assessment, we estimate that approximately 60% of the damaged merchantable timber will be salvageable. As a result of the wildfires, we wrote-off timber basis of approximately $9 million on a consolidated basis, however, based on our economic interest in these funds only $2 million of this write-off was attributable to Rayonier. I’ll now switch gears and provide an overview of our third…

Doug Long

Analyst

Thanks Mark. Good morning. Let’s start on Page 9 with our Southern Timber segment. Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of $26 million was $4 million above the prior year quarter. Results reflect strong demand across much of our U.S. South footprint for both pulpwood and sawtimber. Specifically, third quarter harvest volume of approximately 1.5 million tons was 16% above the prior quarter. Domestic demand from sawmills has been robust and we also remain encouraged by the growth in log exports along the Atlantic Coasts as demand from China for Southern Yellow pine has rebounded in response to the tariff waivers introduced earlier this year. We are well-positioned to capitalize on this market opportunity moving forward, which provides an added layer of market demand. Turning to pricing. Average sawlog stumpage pricing was $25 per ton, an 8% increase compared to the prior year quarter. The improvement in sawlog pricing was attributable to stronger demand for both domestic and export grade timber. Pricing also benefited from a geographic mix weighted toward our stronger Atlantic Coastal markets. Pulpwood pricing was flat relative to the prior year period. Third quarter results include a modest amount of salvage volume due to Hurricane Laura. We expect salvage activity to increase during the fourth quarter, anticipate the ramp up and these efforts to lead to a short-term drag on pulpwood pricing. Third quarter non-timber income of $5 million was $3 million below the prior quarter, due to a reduction in pipeline easement revenue. Recall that 2019 marked a record high year for our non-timber income business. Moving to our Pacific Northwest Timber segment on Page 10. Adjusted EBITDA of $9 million was $6 million above the prior year quarter. This was primarily driven by a significantly improved pricing environment, as well as an increase in volume…

Mark McHugh

Analyst

Thanks, Doug. As highlighted on Page 13, our real estate segment delivered strong results in the third quarter. Sales totaled $29 million on roughly 10,600 acres sold at an average price of over $2,300 per acre, as well as a conservation easement sale of $3 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $22 million. Sales in the Improved Development category totaled $1.3 million highlighted by the sale of 15 lots in our Wildlight development project, North of Jacksonville, Florida for $1 million or $65,000 per lot. We also close on our first post-merger land sale from legacy Pope Resources property in Washington consisting of one industrial lot in Kitsap County for $300,000. In the rural category, sales totaled $23 million on roughly 10,500 acres sold at an average price of $2,200 per acre. The category was highlighted by a 7,300 acre sale for $14 million or $1,900 per acre, across four counties in Georgia and a 1,400 acre sale for $3 million or approximately $2,100 per acre in South Carolina. We also continue to see robust demand for a rural places program during the quarter. We closed on 28 lots totaling 340 acres for $2 million or approximately $6,300 per acre. We believe this program may benefit in a post-COVID environment as the growth and work-from-home arrangements make rural living outside of city and suburban centers, more feasible for a larger portion of the population. Lastly, we closed on a 2,150 acre Conservation Easement sales in Washington for $3 million or roughly $1,450 per acre. The property that the Conservation Easement covers was acquired as part of the merger with Pope Resources. As noted in our earnings release, we began reporting Conservation Easement sales as a new sales category within the real estate segment this quarter. Since Conservation Easement sales…

Dave Nunes

Analyst

Thanks, Mark. Overall, we remain very encouraged by the stability of our business and the strength of our end markets, especially and what has clearly been a tumultuous year for many industries. Although still very elevated, we note that lumber prices have trended lower in recent weeks as such. We believe it’s prudent to prepare for some continued volatility in end markets, as there remains considerable uncertainties stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, the upcoming election, and a broader economic outlook as we look toward 2021. We’ve talked a lot in the past about our operational flexibility, our nimble approach to capital allocation and our focus on building long-term value per share. While the challenges posed in 2020 have tested our resolve, I’m very pleased with the progress made this year, as we continue to focus on long-term value creation for shareholders. On that note, I want to reiterate how proud I am of our employees. Our team has navigated the COVID-19 pandemic with poise and determination. The integration of Pope Resources has gone exceptionally well, especially considering the safety protocols and social distancing requirements necessitated by the pandemic. We continue to make significant progress towards several other strategic initiatives, and we’ve stayed nimble and capitalized on market opportunities as they have emerged. Additionally, when faced with natural disasters in both the U.S. South and the Pacific Northwest during the third quarter, our team mobilized quickly and safely to assess the damage to our lands and execute a plan to maximize salvage opportunities. I feel very fortunate to be surrounded by such exceptional talent at all levels of our organization, and continue to believe this helps position us for future success. This concludes our prepared remarks. I’ll now turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin our question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is open.

Randy Toth

Analyst

Good morning. This is actually Randy Toth sitting in for Anthony. Can you talk about the price improvement in the U.S. South, typically got sawtimber? I think you commented, the improvement was driven by next as low as export demand. So maybe talk about the strength you’re seeing in various regions? And then just remind us how large that export business is expected to be this year and how that compares to prior years? Thank you.

Doug Long

Analyst

Sure. This is Doug. I believe what your question was, a little broke up there, but from what I understand, you wanted to talk about the increase we’ve seen particularly in the South and pricing on saw timber and then our comments around exports. So I’ll cover those real quickly here. The main benefit to increase lumber prices across the South has been increased demand for sawlogs and loosening of log specs, which allowed us to harvest track heavier to saw grade in the quarter. Approximately, a quarter of the 8% year-over-year increase is due to actual increase in pricing and are mainly due to a shift in saw timber harvest to Atlantic Coast, we have greater competition with exports and therefore higher relative pricing. Has been the case for the past few years, due to our expiring Arkansas timber deeds, our harvest will shift back in Q4 towards the Gulf region, which realizes lower average supply in saw timber prices. So we did have a delay, typically, we see that volume happening in Q3 going into Q4, and this year it’s going to more heavily weight at Q4. With respect to the exports that you mentioned, we’ve seen them rebound. We talked about Sun Yield pine going into China once the tariffs waivers were put in place. And Sun Yield pine fills a niche market for previous – for pressure treating and that demand has been growing. Across the U.S. South in Q1, we saw about 155,000 tons, by Q3, it was up to 484,000 tons, and Rayonier participated and added a similar increase. And so we expect to see about a 55% increase of our 2019 volumes. So we’re seeing a pretty good demand there for that, and it’s creating that tension on the Atlantic Coast for us.

Randy Toth

Analyst

Got it. Okay. That’s very helpful. And then just maybe switching over, can you comment Chinese log inventories and what the off-take of those volumes have been in October thus far and how you’re thinking about that? Thank you.

Doug Long

Analyst

Sure. China, Tony, has had an impressive V-shape recovery from COVID and that was led by construction to start with, but now shifting more heavily to industrial activity and exports to cover the downfall from competing nations, who are still struggling with COVID. So we’ve also seen what that consumer spending in China has been positive since Q2 similar to U.S. with home purchases and other durable goods. So over the course of the quarter, we’ve seen an increase in demand from 60,000 cubic meters per day, up to 110,000 cubic meters per day for Radiata pine. Now, particularly going in that furniture and pulp manufacturing commented earlier, so when we had historically high log inventories of around 7 million cubic meters going into the third quarter, this robust demand has brought that supply demand ratio down into the kind of 1.52-month balance that we consider as being healthy. And we’ve seen it basically come down to around 4 million cubic meters at this point in time. So with respect to that, the strong demand we’re seeing, we feel like we’re in a good position right now, where Radiata pine sits. Well, we have still seen is the increased supply of the German, particularly German, the European spruce. And so that’s impacting the exports of Pacific Northwest, particularly for hemlock. And so I expect that we’ll do considerably less if almost no exports to Pacific Northwest because there’s strong demand we have right now.

Randy Toth

Analyst

Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you. I’ll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Kurt Yinger

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Great, thank you, and good morning, everyone. I just wanted to start in the Pacific Northwest and the sequential improvement and realizations. Could you maybe help us parse out how much of that was really attributable to Pope’s mix versus kind of apples to apples price gains?

Doug Long

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Sure. Including the Northwest, the strong lumber markets resulted in the average 19% increase across both our chip-n-saw and saw timber grades. So we saw that that lift across all the grades. Based on the series we harvested in the quarter, we had about 7% higher proportion of chip-n-saw in our grade mix, which often trades at a 20% discount of saw timber, but this was made up for – by the higher proportion of Douglas-fir, our mix with addition to Pope volume. So that’s kind of what we saw was that additional Pope volume helped offset the increase amount of chip-n-saw we were harvesting.

Kurt Yinger

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Got it. Okay. That’s helpful. And with lumber rolling over and I realize it’s not directly tied to it, but could you maybe just talk about how your prices in the Pacific Northwest trended over the quarter and kind of exiting where they might be versus the Q3 average?

Mark McHugh

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Yes. We’re not going to publicly talk about kind of the forward look on the pricing and things like that. But what I would say is lumber pricing still looks to be at a historical – historically strong going into the end of the quarter. And we believe going into the spring also from what we’re hearing from our customers and expectations for strong housing and repair remodeling activity in 2021. So while the sawlog pricing, it’s well above their cash cost of production, and so what we’ve seen is competition for supply of green logs appears to be a bigger driver than the absolute lumber pricing that sits right now.

Kurt Yinger

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Got it. Okay. And then as we start to look ahead to 2021, could you just talk directionally about some of the different drivers of harvest variations versus 2020 or even 2019 if that’s more representative just given all that’s happened this year?

Mark McHugh

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

And again, we’re not providing any guidance on a look forward basis at this point, but suffice it to say that we published our sustainable yield by segment. And I think our general operating philosophy is that we’re going to be generally in that range. We may shift volume, flex volume from time to time based on market conditions. But our going in expectation in any given year is that we’re going to be at around our sustainable yield.

Kurt Yinger

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Okay. And then just lastly, maybe you could just talk a bit about capital allocation priorities and what you’re seeing as far as potential Timberland acquisitions and just valuations across those opportunities?

Dave Nunes

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Yes. I think if you look over the year, I think the biggest impediment to the Timberland transaction activity was just the inability to – from travel restrictions to get people on the ground to do additional due diligence, as we’ve seen that ease, we’ve seen more properties coming on the market and we’ve seen a pickup in activity. So I think from an offering standpoint, we’re back, I’d say to a more normalized level. In terms of pricing, keep in mind that this is influenced by capital flows. And I think we still see the timber asset class as a safe haven for capital. And so we’ve seen – we’ve continued to see a fairly robust amount of capital available in the space to invest in. And we’ve certainly seen that reflected in asset values to date.

Kurt Yinger

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Got it. Okay. That’s very helpful. Appreciate all the color and good luck in the fourth quarter.

Dave Nunes

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Paul Quinn

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Yes. Thanks very much. Good morning. Just a follow up question on timber pricing. It looks like you got a very significant bump in the Pacific Northwest, while the U.S. South prices increased, there really wasn’t anything close to what we’ve seen in the lumber side. And with the expectation that lumber stays pretty robust going forward, do you anticipate a pickup in that? Is there a lag there or is this it?

Dave Nunes

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

I mean, Paul, a lot of that really is a function of what part of the U.S. South you’re in. And as we’ve discussed before, we had a stronger pricing performance on our logs relative to the broader market, just because we tend to be in more balanced or tensioned wood baskets in the South. So, the South still – in a overall sense had a build-in inventory – has had a build-in inventory since the global financial crisis of a decade ago. But that builds been very differential, where you have areas that are more imbalanced from a growth drain standpoint, we’ve seen a more price elasticity, and you see that in our results for Q3.

Paul Quinn

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. And then how do you guys look at in the changing environment your percentage of delivered sales versus coming sales? What’s happening back? And what do you expect going forward?

Doug Long

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Yes. The change has particularly happened in the South. A lot of that is related to our export program and we’re delivering directly to our own yards and then exporting. And so through that process, we’ve shifted heavier to an export program on the Atlantic Coast. We’ve also seen – with respect to the weather and things like that. That we’ve had that we’ve been able to gain additional crews and then utilize them and keep them working for us basically as we go forward. So it’s been two combinations, but primarily it was the greater leverage to the export market has increased our need for delivered crews. And then through that process getting some also greater quotas into some of the local mills we’ve garner from that. So we’ve continued on with those crews.

Paul Quinn

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Great. That’s all I have. Thanks a lot guys.

Dave Nunes

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from John Babcock with Bank of America. Your line is open.

John Babcock

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Good morning. This question, I mean, primarily, obviously you closed Pope Resources earlier this year. Just want to get a sense for now that you’ve got another core under your belt with that, where you see opportunity to enhance your own timberlands and recognizing obviously that the goal is ultimately to reduce leverage to some extent here. So just want to get a sense for where you see opportunities there?

Dave Nunes

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

I mean, I’d say that our approach is still very consistent with where it has been for the last number of years. We tend to have a preference around bolt-on transactions in all three of our geographies where we see a complimentary fit from an age class standpoint. In all three of our geographies, we have a rank ordered various sub regional markets. And we will put more emphasis on those. And so we’ve had a quality bias in the things that we’ve looked at and gone after. I think the Pope acquisition is certainly consistent with that. And right now, we’re looking at transaction opportunities really across all three of our timber segments, but again, with an eye toward quality and market dynamics.

John Babcock

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

And then with regards to the ATM equity offering is the goal for that. Well actually, can you just talk about, ultimately where those funds will be deployed? Should you decide to pursue that? And you mentioned maintaining flexibility on that front, so if you can just kind of talk about that and if there are kind of any thoughts around when and if that might be used?

Mark McHugh

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Yes, sure. This is Mark. I’d say our mantra around capital allocation has been to be nimble and opportunistic. And really we view the ATM program as just another tool in the toolkit to optimize our capital allocation opportunities and to raise capital, when desired in a very cost effective manner. We also believe that it provides nice symmetry with our buyback program under which we still have roughly I think $88 million available pursuant to the last authorization. As we discussed earlier on the call, we didn’t issue any shares under the ATM during the third quarter. So we intend to remain very discipline around capital allocation and particularly, the issuance of equity. I mean, ultimately our appetite to use the ATM is going to be heavily influenced by the stock price as well as the opportunity set that we have available to deploy that capital at any given point in time.

John Babcock

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Okay. And how do you balance the share issuance or with the share buybacks, was that effectively just going to be based on where the stock is trading? Or are there any other factors are taken into account there?

Mark McHugh

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Yes, I mean, that’s going to – obviously, be a significant driver, really the design of our capital allocation program more broadly as to build NAV per share over time. And so we look to deploy buybacks when we see an opportunity to generate that NAV accretion per share through buybacks. And likewise, when we’ll use the ATM as appropriate to fund growth opportunities, when we think that there’s an opportunity that warrants the issuance of shares, again, we saw it as being sort of very symmetrical in terms of having that ability to buy back shares, when the pricing is opportune and likewise have the opportunity to issue shares, when we liked the price and we liked the opportunities that we have available to deploy that capital.

John Babcock

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Okay. Does the equity offering there have any sort of limitations that we should be mindful?

Mark McHugh

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Subject to typical trading restrictions around material non-public information, it’s a continuous offering program. And so I’d say, it operates much like the converse of a buyback where you’re able to issue shares periodically into the market, through open market transactions.

John Babcock

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Okay. And then just last question before I turn it over. Just on Europe, if you can talk about the trend that you’re seeing there and ultimately how that’s, can you talk a little bit about how it’s impacting the China market by I just want to get a sense for volumes and how that compares this quarter versus last quarter?

Dave Nunes

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Yes. We continued to see in the second quarter, the pulp volume for Europe was reduced due to COVID, but going into Q3. They’ve really stepped up. I don’t have the exact numbers with me right now, but I can tell you that Germany has hit an all time high on their exports. So we’re seeing increased supply going into China, particularly out of Germany over that time. But it was coming off of a lower quarter. So Jeremy has become the second largest importer of logs into China at this point in time behind New Zealand. We’ve also seen the meantime, a reduction in supply from Russia and a couple of other places. So there’s been a bit of balancing there.

John Babcock

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, we have no further questions on the audio line.

Collin Mings

Analyst

Thank you. This is Collin Mings, I’d like to thank everybody for joining us. Please contact us with any follow-up questions.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.