Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) Q2 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Ryanair Holdings plc H1 FY '26 Earnings Release. My name is Nadia, and I'll be coordinating the call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to your host, Michael O'Leary, Group CEO of Ryanair Holdings plc to begin. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Nadia. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the H1 results conference call. I'm joined by the entire team here in London and on other phone lines. We published the results this morning, Neil and myself have done a 30-minute Q&A on the website. So I would direct you to the ryanair.com website for that while you're there, book a low-fare flight. Quick couple of comments. One, as you see, I'd prefer to deal with Q2 because the H1 was distorted by the very ridiculously strong Q1 and the weak prior year comp. But if you look at Q2, so traffic is up 2% because of the Boeing delivery delays. They have improved in the last couple of months. We've now taken 23 of the 29 aircraft that they should have delivered to us at the start of the summer. That gives a little bit of headroom to increase traffic growth this year from 206 million to 207 million. So we should get growth of about 3.5% this year. Fares in Q2 were up 7%, very strong recovery. That is the recovery of last year's 7% fare decline, and we think we will continue that through the remainder of the year. I caution, we do have slightly stronger prior year or tougher prior year comps in the second half when we began to repair the OTA boycott or the impact of the OTA boycott was less significant. So the fare growth in the second half won't be as strong as it is in the first half. But overall, on the year, we're pretty confident now we get back all of last year's 7% fare decline, maybe a little bit above that, but it won't be much. Much more important, as always, unit costs well under control, only up 1% in the second quarter despite significant cost inflation on air traffic control and a little bit on the engineering side. Clearly, the lower hedge cost this year playing a significant role in that. And as a result, Q2 profits are up 20% to EUR 1.72 billion. Taking forward, in kind of themes I would give you that we want to cover in the call, Boeing are doing a much better job. I think they asked us to take those -- could we take the aircraft through August, September, October. We said didn't -- there were no use to us at that stage, but we would work with them. We would take those aircraft if they could deliver them. They've delivered 23 of the 29 aircraft in the last 3 months. We get 2 more in November and then the final 4 will be delivered in January, February of next year. So we will have all 210 Gamechangers in the fleet by the end of March next year or in advance of summer '26, which puts us well on track, I think, for traffic growth to 215 million, 216 million passengers in FY '27. And that will be the first year since the MAX groundings that we're not dealing with Boeing delivery delays in the spring or disruptions to our summer schedule. So we think that will lead to strong traffic growth and hopefully maintaining pricing and profit recovery into summer '26. The good news this morning is we've taken advantage of our recent fuel weakness. As you know, we were 85% hedged out to March 2026 or for this year at $76 a barrel, down from $84 a barrel last year. Today, we're able to announce that we're 80% hedged for FY '27 at just under $67 a barrel. That will be a very significant 10% saving on our fuel bill, will save us about EUR 600 million next year, which I think will enable us to incentivize and stimulate growth, but also fund what will be another painful increase in emissions ETS taxes and viral taxes in Europe, where Europe continues to damage its own competitiveness by taxing only intra-EU travel, whereas all the extra or the non-EU travel or people arriving to and from Europe are exempt from these egregious environmental taxes. Balance sheet continues to strengthen. We paid back the EUR 850 million bond in September. We have the final EUR 1.2 billion bond we will pay in May, and then we will be entirely debt-free with a fleet of 640 aircraft. We have hedged, and I think the treasury team has done a wonderful job start this year, the dollar was about 1.08 to the euro. It weakened in recent months with some of the Trump spectaculars to 1.24. And we've now hedged the first 50 of our 150 firm MAX 10 aircraft orders at 1.24, which is about a 15% euro cost saving -- euro saving on CapEx on those first 50 aircraft, and we're looking for opportunities to extend those CapEx hedges. And you can only do that with the kind of strong balance sheet Ryanair have. The real underlying, I think, story, though, is here that Europe capacity continues to be constrained and will remain constrained out to 2030 because of manufacturer delivery delays, Airbus fleet still largely grounded repairing engines, a program that won't be completed until 2028 or 2029. And therefore, I think as we add capacity next year, there's a reasonable prospect that we would grow traffic, but we'll see modest fare increases coming through the system. The one negative in Europe is Europe is continuing to fail on competitiveness. We've had the Draghi report, now it's 14 months old. He pointed to a whole series of areas where Europe can and must be more competitive. von der Leyen has committed herself to delivering on that competitiveness agenda and then done absolutely nothing for the last 14 months. All of Europe's airlines are calling for 2 competitive initiatives. One moved the ETS environmental tax emissions trading system tax rates in line with CORSIA, which is what the non-European airlines are paying. It is indefensible that Europe is harming itself by having these excessive environmental taxes, move ETS in line with CORSIA, and it would result in dramatic improvements in competitiveness and also lower fares for consumers traveling on intra-EU air services. And then second, reform Europe's broken ATC services. We need the protection of overflights during national ATC strikes. We cannot have a single market if it can be shut down every time some air traffic control union wants to go on strike. It isn't much of an ask. The legal mechanism already exists because in Spain, Italy and Greece, they already protect overflights during ATC strikes and they ground the domestic flights. But as we all know, in France, they protect a disproportionate amount of the domestic flights and cancel all the overflights. This is unsustainable and von der Leyen should take action. I think with what is a very impressive new Transport Commissioner, Tzitzikostas. He wants to reform, but everything ties in the dead hand of von der Leyen's office. So she should stop talking about reform and competitors and start delivering it, protect over flights and then fix staffing on the first wave of ATC staffing on the first wave of flights, which, again, Germany, France and NATS in the U.K. are inexplicably short staffed. It's inexcusable. The airlines we roster standby pilots and standby cabin crew. ATC, they just allowed the system to fall over and they cut capacity. It's not acceptable. Air traffic control fees have gone up 14% this year, and we're still getting a s***** third rate, third world service. And if von der Leyen can't deliver competitiveness, frankly, she should leave and be replaced by somebody competent who can deliver competitiveness in Europe. Other than that, I think the good news is we're seeing a sea change in environmental taxation at national level. Governments in Sweden, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and regional Italy are all abolishing their environmental taxes. And we are switching an enormous amount of capacity away from high-tax economies like Germany, France and the U.K., where Rachel Reeves is increasing APD by another GBP 2 in April. And moving that capacity to Sweden, Hungary, Italy, et cetera, where governments are get it, they're abolishing the environmental taxes and they're also incentivizing traffic growth. So we want to reward those countries that are incentivizing growth and penalize those countries like Germany, France and the U.K. who are incentivizing tax increases and damaging growth. And that will continue. But I think the fact that countries like Sweden, the home of Greta Thunberg and flight shaming 5 years ago are now have worked out. They're abolishing the environmental taxes, gives us hope and I think some degree of optimism that the way forward is not penalizing Europeans. It is abolishing those taxes and allow airlines like Ryanair to invest heavily in new engine technology. Our new MAX 10s will carry 20% more passengers, but burn 20% less fuel per flight. So a 40% reduction in fuel and emissions on a per seat basis. Other than that, there's also some other government and competencies, the Irish government, which was elected last year on a program to abolish the Dublin Airport cap 12 months later, nothing done. We have a do-nothing Prime Minister and a do-nothing Deputy Prime Minister, both of whom have been sitting on their arses for the last 12 months, talking about passing legislation despite the fact they have a 20-seat majority. They're now talking about legislation might be moved by the end of 2026. Ireland and growth cannot wait for these do-nothing politicians. They have a 20-seat majority, they should pass the legislation scrapping the cap at Dublin Airport before the end of 2025 and allow the airlines, Ryanair and the other airlines to get on with growing traffic at Dublin Airport, the way we're growing, and we're adding aircraft in Shannon and Cork. So there's always some stupid government and some incompetent politician holding back the growth. But thankfully, there's better politicians in Sweden, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, all of whom are working closely with Ryanair to abolish taxes and allow us to grow strongly. I think we're looking forward particularly with the improvements Boeing have made in the deliveries, the quality of the deliveries. Kelly Ortberg and Stephanie Pope are doing a terrific job. They have got -- they've gone up from rate 38 to rate 42 in October. We think the FAA will increase that to rate 46 in March, April next year. They are gradually catching up on the delivery delays. They are pretty confident that they'll certify the MAX 7 even with the current government shutdown in Q2 next year, the MAX 10 in Q3, which will be about 6 months in advance of our first 15 MAX 10 deliveries in the spring of 2027. So we have the 29 aircraft delivered this winter that enables us to grow to 215 million passengers in FY '27. The first 15 MAX 10s coming in the spring of '27 will enable us to grow to about 225 million passengers by FY '28. And then we are off and running on what I believe will be an 8- to 10-year program to grow from 207 million passengers this year to over 30 million -- 300 million passengers by 2034. Currently, we're making a profit of approximately EUR 10 per passenger. I think it's reasonable to suppose that, that profit will rise from EUR 10 towards EUR 12 or EUR 14 profit per passenger over the next 10 years. There will be 1 or 2 curveballs in the middle of that. We are a cyclical industry. We have a strong balance sheet. We will have 0 debt in May of next year. And I think we are poised for very strong growth, particularly if the European economies continue to lag in growth, people will get more and more price sensitive and will switch to Ryanair from high fare competitors elsewhere. So I have never been more excited about, I think, the growth outlook for the next 4 or 5 years. I think we have a number of challenges in moving politicians to a competitiveness agenda. But within that, Ryanair is going to grow strongly and profitably, I think, for the next 4 years up to 2030. And with that, Neil, I want to hand over to you, anything you want to highlight in the P&L or on the balance sheet?

Yes. I'll maybe just focus again on a couple of things in the quarter and in the half. Firstly, as you already pointed out, costs put in an excellent performance, up just 1% on a per passenger basis. That was down to our strong fuel hedging, which very much helped offset double-digit increases in ATC and environmental costs. We're still guiding modest unit cost inflation for the full year. What's modest, it remains somewhere between 1% and 3% on a full year basis, probably a little bit higher than the 1% that we had in the first half in the second half of the year. We have extended our hedges into FY '27, as Michael said. We've also extended our OpEx hedging into next year at 1.15 compared to 1.11 on the euro-dollar. So we're locking in significant price savings next year, and that will go a long way to help offset a jump up in our environmental ETS next year somewhere from about EUR 1.1 billion this year to somewhere between EUR 1.4 billion and EUR 1.5 billion next year. Balance sheet, rock solid, BBB+ rated, 610 unencumbered aircraft and in a very strong position now to be debt-free by May of next year, which I think is a great place to be. Also, we're locking in euro savings on our MAX 10 CapEx moving forward with a 35% hedge in place where we've hedged 35% at a firm order, that's 150 aircraft at 1.24. Buyback moving along at a nice pace. We're pleased with the pace that the brokers are moving at. They managed it well through indexation. So we're just over 35% of the way through that, and that will run out to the back end of 2026. And then finally, the last thing I'll point to business as usual, but we've announced an interim dividend this morning of EUR 0.193, which similar to last year, will be paid at the end of February. And that's all I wanted to touch on, Michael.

Okay. Thanks, Neil. With that, Nadia, we'll open up to Q&A, please.

[Operator Instructions] The first question goes to Harry Gowers of JPMorgan.

First question just on the Q3 fares, maybe you could provide us with what you're currently tracking for the quarter? And if you've seen any changes strengthening or weakening around that number in the last few months? And then second question on the online travel agents, that clearly, the fare comparatives are normalizing into the Q3 versus last year. I was wondering if you think you're still getting like any actual realizable uplift or specific tailwind from those official partnerships? Or is this just like fully past us now and we're back to a more regular kind of pricing cycle, just fully dependent on supply/demand in any quarter?

Yes. Thanks, Harry. I mean I wouldn't want to split out where we think we are on Q3 fares because so much of it is dependent on the close-in bookings at Christmas, over the Christmas and New Year period. But October is strong, up on last year. November is a little bit weaker, slightly down on last year's fares and Christmas at the moment is booking strong ahead of last year on fares. I think all I want to -- I wouldn't want to go any further than give you the kind of -- we have moved from being hopeful to being now confident that average fares will recover the full 7-year fare decline from last year in this year's numbers. We're up 13% average fares in the first half of the year. We have tougher prior year comps in the second half of the year. So you won't see, I think, 7% fare increases in Q3 or in Q4. But I think rounded out for the full year, we're pretty confident now we will be up -- average shares will be up 7%. Maybe we might get to 8% if we have a strong Christmas. But again, we need to see how those close-in figures book. And I think that is what leads us with a reasonable degree of confidence to see a strong profit recovery this year, but we can't put a number on it yet because it's so heavily driven by Christmas and the New Year holiday bookings. The new aircraft from Boeing will gives us the capacity to add a few extras there over that Christmas-New Year period. That's why we've been able to bring the traffic up from 206 million to 207 million this morning. On the OTAs, the big impact on us on the OTA boycott last year was through the first half of the year when you lost the people who I kind of complacently thought would be price sensitive. Therefore, they'll book the holidays directly with us. They didn't. A lot of them moved to the tour operators last year to the Jet 2s and the easyJet holidays. They've come back to us in the first half of this year. You see that reflected. We have weak prior year comps and a strong H1. We see some of those kind of tour operators, easyJet, Holidays Jet 2 (sic) [ Jet2 Holidays ] talking about a bit more price sensitivity in their bookings through the first half of the year. And it's because that traffic -- the OTAs have moved that traffic back to us. They need our low fare access. And so -- but that's not a key feature into the second half of the year. The OTAs are a lot less impactful in Q3 and 4. And therefore, we didn't have the same decline in airfares in Q3 and 4 last year. We've got much -- we have a tougher prior year comp, which is why we think, again, the second half of the year, you won't see 7% fare increases. It will be a little bit less than that. But overall, in the round, we'll come out at fares up about 7% on the full year. Eddie, do you want to add anything to that on Q1, Q2 or OTAs?

No, I mean like what we've said, there sort of covers it off about what has happened, like slightly less in terms of fares in November, but Christmas, we're happy with how it's booking. So nothing really to add there at all. And I think we are through that sort of tail end of the OTAs, and I don't think there's going to be any further uplift. I just think it's, as you say, much tougher for our competitors out there on the prior year comparable.

The next question goes to James Hollins of Exane BNP Paribas.

I'll start one for Neil, actually. Just on the ex-fuel unit cost performance was only up 2%. I think noticeable was the EUR 30 million Q2 decline year-on-year in marketing, distribution and other. I'm assuming that's all lower distribution costs -- sorry, lower disruption costs. Or am I missing something else within that particular line? And secondly, Michael, clearly, using this platform as ever to get your point across on EU, progress on overflights, et cetera. Maybe just give us an update on what this new transport minister might be able to achieve? And secondly, whether there's any update on the sort of comedy baggage regulation they're looking at?

Okay, Neil. You okay if we have -- Tracey come in after?

Yes, sure. On the marketing line, I think you're particularly referring to some of that's down to lower EU261, lots of disruptions, but keeping them below the 3 hours. Equally, we've got up to 60 million people a week coming through on social, which is keeping our marketing costs way down. A little -- some of it's a bit of timing. We will do a bit more marketing over the Christmas period. And then offsetting that somewhat would be higher input costs for the onboard spend, which is going particularly well from an ancillary perspective.

Okay. Thanks, Neil. And on its commissioner Tzitzikostas, who's the Transport Commissioner, has had a really impressive start. One of the most notable things is they finally moved on the infringement proceedings against Spain over the crazy Spanish bag fines that were levied only on the low-fares airlines in Spain, but not on the high-fare airlines. It's clearly illegal. It's in breach of EU Regulation 1008/2008, which guarantees the airlines' freedom to set prices free from government interference or regulation. He does want to reform ATC. But like I think a lot of commissioners, he's frustrated. They're all expressed frustration at how little comes back out of von der Leyen's office. There is a real dead hand of Germany incompetence at the top of the European Commission and either she should deliver reform and deliver reform and competitiveness or go, preferably be replaced with someone who can actually do something. I would like to say we should get an Irish politician there given it was Peter Sunderland, who originally deregulated air travel. But given the lack of action from the Irish politicians on the Dublin Airport [ mad ], Dublin Airport cap, I wouldn't be recommending any of our Irish politicians either. At the EU Parliament, as is it won't is -- we elect a bunch of clowns, and we should be not surprised in a circus that they come out with crazy ideas. One of which is now that everybody should have the right to bring 2 free bags onboard an aircraft. We have politely pointed out that there isn't room on board the aircraft for 2 free bags for 189 passengers. That does seem to be a detail that they've missed. We've also pointed out that actual bag, one of the greatest things here that limiting people to bringing one free bag on board, and that was the wheeling judgment, the ECJ judgment in 2014, we do allow half the passengers who are priority boarding to bring a second carry -- free carry-on bag. That's about as much capacity as the aircraft has. But what the European parliament now part of this is that the commission under Tzitzikostas is looking for a reform of EU261. There talk about bringing compensation up from 3-hour delays to 4-hour delays, which does make sense. The parliament then pushes back with some ridiculous suggestion like 2, 3 bags on board. What that would do is they create huge queues at Europe's airports as everybody starts struggling with 2 bags through airport security. A bit like you have in American airports where you take forever to get through security because they're all bringing 5 and 6 bags attached to their persons through the airport. It would also mean inevitable flight delays because bags that don't fit in the aircraft would have to be taken away at the gate and put in the hold of the aircraft. You have more aircraft missing their slots and you would just gum up the whole system. But of course, a bunch of lunatics elected to the European parliament wouldn't worry about the day-to-day details of how people move. They only work about 3 days a week anyway and wouldn't be all that sensitive at the best of times to efficiency. This is why in America innovates, China replicates and Europe f****** regulates. And why Draghi has pointed 14 months ago, we need to get more efficient in Europe. And the best starting point would be stop issuing new bulls*** regulations invented by idiots in the European Parliament and start making Europe more efficient. If you really want to deliver efficiency for consumers of air travel in Europe and competitiveness, abolish environmental taxes or at least bring them into line with CORSIA and fix air traffic control. The European part will be much better off waste spending its time reforming air traffic control or protecting overflights in a single market than they would designing new and hopelessly impractical and unimplementable regulations, allowing passengers to bring 2 free bags on board an aircraft where there isn't room for the bags and they don't fit.

The next question goes to Jaime Rowbotham of Deutsche Bank.

Two from me, both on growth. The first one on fares. Obviously, great to see you're making back what you lost from the OTA issues. But on an underlying basis, the pricing is broadly flat. And that's, I think, the scenario you're implicitly guiding to for this winter when the comps normalize. So as we look ahead to next summer, you're growing in Poland, Italy, Ireland, you'll shrink in Spain, Germany, France. But overall, you'll grow seats at about 4%. It looks like the industry will do 3% to 4% again as well. That being the case, I was a bit surprised to hear you talking about modest fare increases coming through the system, especially as you hinted that Ryanair will likely be passing some of its fuel cost decline on to stimulate growth. So would it not pay for us to tread quite carefully when thinking about the direction of your pricing next summer? Second one, you've announced EUR 25 million of annual investment today to accelerate cadet and first officer recruitment for the next 3 years. You've also talked previously about setting up 1 or 2 in-house engine maintenance shops. Is there any update on that project? Have you chosen the sites? And are there any other non-aircraft investments for growth that we should have on our radar?

Thanks, Jaime. I'm going to ask Eddie to deal with the growth question. I might ask Tracey McCann to come in on -- Tracey will come in on the EUR 25 million, on the first officer and on the engine shops update. Eddie, growth in 2026.

Yes. I mean if you look out into the summer of next year, I think, just close to 75% of our growth will be in Italy, Poland, Albania and U.K. I mean like we've -- if you look what's happened in Italy, we've opened 2 new -- we've got bases in Trapani. Tirana base will open. We've got additional aircraft, 3 additional aircraft going into Modlin, 3 additional aircraft going into Krakow. And then you see as we begin to -- like it's not good to say that we're not growing in Spain. We're not growing in regional Spain. I mean regional airports in Spain are underutilized by about 70%, but we continue to grow in Malaga and Alicante where we will have -- probably we'll have 20 aircraft in both of those bases next year, and that'll be pretty much maxed out on early morning slots. We continue to grow places like Madrid, so it is getting more patchy and Barcelona is full. But yes, the way this is playing out in terms of you look at our competitors and their sort of cost inflation, and that's going to drive fares up while the gap between us and our competitors widens on a unit cost basis, and that gives us the opportunity to take advantage of what we believe will be like fares at least rising to some extent, the bias is going to be towards that. And we continue to grow, as I say, 75% of it across Italy, U.K., Poland and Albania and then a smattering of one aircraft increases across a wide range of bases where we're continuing to get low-cost deals. But like I could have allocated those 29 aircraft 3x over based on the appetite that's out there for particularly the stability that Ryanair brings and the longevity into those markets.

And I would just add to that point. I mean if you look at the non ex-fuel unit cost inflation in our competitors, whether it's easyJet, Wizz, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, they are really struggling to contain unit costs. And that, I think, puts pressure on the next year to get fares up to cover these unit costs. The legacy carriers are also facing a much bigger penalty in terms of the withdrawal of the free ETS allowances. It has a much bigger impact on Lufthansa, Air France and IAG. And I think the pressure on fares is going to be upwards for the next year or 2. We have a much better unit cost discipline, and I think our fares will trend up behind them despite the fact that we've already banked up to EUR 650 million in fuel cost savings next year. Tracey, do you want to touch on the first officer recruitment issue and the progress on engine shops?

Yes. So attrition rates are probably at the lowest we've ever seen. So we probably slowed down our recruitment this year of cadets probably to about 500. We should be up at about 1,000. So given the long lead time for promotions to captain been about 4 to 5 years, we're commencing recruitment now for then peak years for the MAX 10 deliveries. So there'll be a carry cost of about EUR 25 million per annum up to 2030.

And shop progress?

So just on the engine shops, we're close to selecting our first MRO shop. We will open 2. So that will allow us to do 200 engines in each shop. The selection period is ongoing. There's nothing in our CapEx for this year, but we will probably start paying something next year, but we're close to announcing something on that very shortly.

We're in advanced discussions with GE and CFM on spares packages, and we would hope to have announcements of those, if not, before Christmas, maybe early in the new year.

The next question goes to Jarrod Castle of UBS.

I was quite interested to hear you say that you think the profit per pax could go as high as EUR 14 at least over the next few years. And you've given some commentary on pricing and costs. But just some color on what gives you that confidence, assuming we've got like a stable GDP environment. There's no downturn, I guess. And then you've obviously spoken about a number of countries, Germany, France and I saw some comments on the U.K. But it does look like you're still continuing to grow in the U.K., which I think is about 1/5 of your capacity. And if I'm not mistaken, you're going to grow in summer by the sounds of things. So why is it still attractive to you? And what are your thoughts on the upcoming budget on the '26?

Okay. I'll maybe ask Eddie do the second half of the question on U.K. growth this year. Remember, the APD increase, that doesn't come in until April of '26. So -- but it's coming. Just on profit per passenger. If you go back to the kind of the broad brushes or my favorite back of the envelope, the real driver, I think, of our industry in Europe for the next 4 or 5 years is capacity constraint. We've gone through 25, 30 years where there was new airlines being set up, low fares airlines, the legacies were setting up low fare subsidiaries, everybody had new aircraft deliveries. There is very little capacity growth across Europe this year, next year or for the next 3 or 4 years. Nobody has any significant aircraft orders with the possible exception of Ryanair. Wizz had some orders and they've -- they're desperately trying to defer those orders now, which means their profits implode because all their profits come from [ Mizigel ] or Ponzi like sale and leaseback profits being recognized in the P&L, but that's an aside. So I think the demand for air travel remains strong. Yes, there are economic challenges in countries like Germany, France and the U.K. where the economies are not doing well, particularly in the U.K. post-Brexit. But people are not willing to forgo the travel. The kids, midterm -- we've just come through the midterm school break last week, very strong traffic flows, very strong bookings at high yields. Easter, summer holidays, Christmas, we're seeing strong demand for travel. I think, if anything, strong demand for travel with -- in Ryanair because we have such a pricing advantage over every other airline in Europe. Wherever we allocate the capacity, we are filling strongly. And I think that was reflected in this morning's bookings even into the remainder of October, November, December or November, December, where forward bookings are about almost 1% ahead of where they were this time last year. And we see that continuing. So I was asked earlier this morning, one of the interviews, if we saved EUR 650 million on fuel next year, will we pass that on in the form of lower fares? I think -- and my answer was, I think we can, but I don't expect to have to because I don't see -- if you look at the kind of cost inflation or ex fuel unit cost inflation in Wizz, easyJet, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, it's high single digit, low and mid-double digits in the case of Wizz. Those guys have no future unless they constrain capacity and get airfares up for the next year or 2. And I think we will be the beneficiaries of that with a much more disciplined unit cost control. And I keep go back to Slide 4 in our presentation. If you look at the comparable unit cost advantage we have over every other airline in Europe, I think there's a reasonable prospect that we will see modest fare increases over the next 2 or 3 years plus or minus any unforeseen events, but modest fare increases, mid-single digits. And in Ryanair's case, most of that flowing through to the bottom line. Now we will have labor cost inflation in the next couple of years. I think ATC will continue to be out badly controlled by government. But overall, we will be -- we're moving into a decade where we're going to start taking aircraft at 20% more seats that burn 20% less fuel per flight. We're looking at a much more operating efficiencies coming through. And I think that justifies a reasonably modest growth in profit per passenger from EUR 10 to EUR 12 to EUR 14, I think, over the next 5 years to 2030. But then I'm one of like hopeless optimist, which is why I'm employed in the airline industry. Eddie, U.K. growth impact of APD.

Yes. I mean, notwithstanding the sort of background of continuous APD growth in the U.K. The way we look at in terms of route development is not just season by season, but there's a continuous carousel of airports that we do deals with. And like if that -- if you've got airports even in a tough market like that, that are willing to share the investment with you in terms of lower cost, well, then we're going to reward that with extra capacity. And we've got extra aircraft going into places like Newcastle, which has gone from 0 to 2 aircraft based and 3 aircraft based now. Birmingham has got an extra aircraft. Liverpool has got an extra aircraft, Birmingham, Manchester, Stanford. All these places have extra aircraft going in because they're willing. We're in there for the long term. We're lowering costs there and incentivized for additional traffic. So it doesn't always go coterminous with the market as you make those investments, and it's going to put even more pressure on [indiscernible].

Neil, anything you want to add there on U.K. growth or impact of APD?

Not particularly. I think we're -- Eddie and yourself have covered that off fairly well. On the profit per pax, I suppose just to reiterate, it won't go in straight line. There will be years where we'll be up and years where we'll be slightly down.

Okay. Michal Kaczmarzyk here as well, who's the CEO of Buzz. I might just add, I guess, help us to just to give you maybe his insight into growth in Central Europe, Poland, in particular, the charter market in Buzz. Michal, anything you want to add on growth in those non-tax economies like Poland and Central Europe?

There are good taxes. True. I mean Poland and CEE are performing very well. Demand is strong. We have now 80 aircraft allocated in the region. The Poland is the biggest part of the market with 44, offering more or less 40 million seats with the most attractive destinations in CEE. We have very strong brand recognition there at Ryanair, but also supported by our local structure bus generating over [ 3,500 ] direct jobs in Central Eastern Europe, supporting another 20,000 airport handling and so on. We make a lot of significant investment in the region through our hangars facility, but also crew training centers. We completed recently the biggest crew training center in Central Eastern Europe with 3 -- sorry, 4 full motion simulators. It's located in Krakow. We'll be able to train over 300 crew per day. We developed also our Warsaw ops center, focusing now on covering Central Eastern Europe, but also serves as a backup for Dublin ops center. So there is a lot of capacity still we can allocate in Central and Eastern Europe. The only -- the constraint is the number of aircraft we can allocate there. And we are in the good shape to take a lot of market share in the next 2, 3 years.

And there was talk last year of with moving aircraft back from the desert and basing aircraft in Central and Eastern Europe. Are you seeing much of Wizz in those markets? And how is the -- what's the -- Albania, where we're opening a base in Tirana, which is currently a Wizz base. How is the Tirana expansion base going head-to-head with Wizz?

So aircraft allocation -- I mean the Wizz aircraft allocation from the desert to Central Eastern Europe, I would say it's too late. I mean after pre-COVID, we increased in Central Eastern like 40%. We took their capacity or even pass capacity from the region to the region. So now we are the biggest in Poland, the Baltics, Croatia, Slovakia. We have the local structure there where we are able to compete in terms of cost level. There is no cheaper airline than past now in the region. Also with the highest fleet utilization ratio in the industry, over 6 hectares per aircraft per day. So the new base launch next summer will be Tirana for us, with quite significant capacity of Wizz. But what I mentioned, we are absolutely not afraid of that because our local structure there guarantee us the lowest cost. Once we deliver the lowest cost, we are able to deliver the lowest fares there as well.

Thanks, Michal. Eddie, anything you want to add on growth there before we...

I mean just touch on the point there, you talk about Wizz and what's happening out there, where their policy or their growth strategy is to go back to Central and Eastern Europe. And certainly, what we pick up from the airports is that those that are incentivizing us to grow is that we're there for the long term. And you can see even cancellations in [indiscernible] from Wizz before they've even started back there. So some of that has been replicated. And you hear a lot of noise, but not a lot of lot of action that even extends to places like Italy, where we're doing almost 1,200 frequencies a week and you've got less than 100 frequencies a week from Wizz. So -- but I think airports recognize Ryanair is in for the long term, do a deal with Ryanair, get the cost down and you have the traffic for the long term rather than looking at these other short-term deals that are available [indiscernible].

The next question goes to Stephen Furlong of Davy.

Just on Boeing, last week, they had the results, and I thought they were pretty vague on the certification. They just said 2026, maybe the deliberately were for the MAX 10. I mean a little bit more work on the 10 and the 7 and hardware and software modifications, although they did say it was pretty straightforward. So just might talk about that, what exactly they're telling you. And then you mentioned labor. Could you just remind us what's the timetable for CLAs? I think most of them are in 2027 and stuff that would be great, the contract labor agreements.

Yes. I mean I think it's one of this -- I give Boeing more credit. The new management team is doing much more credit. The old management team would give us all sorts of pie in the sky, to be here tomorrow, next week and then miss targets all over the place. The new guys are much more cautious. They don't want to make promises they can't deliver. And I think that's the sensible place for them to be in. But you look at what they have delivered, they've got FAA approval to go from rate 38 to rate 42 in October. They're now talking about going to rate 46 in March, April next year. That doesn't really affect us. I mean we'll have finished our -- the Gamechanger deliveries at the end of February. But at least we have all 29 aircraft in for summer 2026. There is a risk at the moment with the government shutdown that certification, they're pretty confident talking to us. And actually, we get this on the other side from talking to EASA, who are involved in. EASA are very impressed with the work that the Boeing of the management team and the work that they're doing. And we get a lot of very positive feedback from EASA. So I think they're right to be somewhat cautious to underpromise and overdeliver. But we have a reasonable headroom there. At the moment, they're talking about MAX 7 being certified by -- in Q2 next year, MAX 10 in Q3. That could slip to Q4 or to Q1 of 2027, and we would still get our 15 deliveries in the spring of 2027. Now clearly, we'd be one of the lead operators of the MAX 10. I wouldn't have any issue with that. The sooner we can get them, the better. So -- but they're telling us and have gone in writing that they will meet our delivery date, the first 15 delivery dates, the first contracted 15 delivery dates in the spring of '27, they will meet. That's what gave us the confidence in the treasury function to go out and start hedging the U.S. dollar on those firm deliveries. And we're looking for more opportunities to extend those hedging. So I think Boeing were right to be a little bit cautious in their public commentary, but all of the delivery on the ground in terms of quality of what they're delivering to us and the timeliness of what they're delivering to us now has been nothing but impressive for the last 3 or 4 months. Now they clearly don't need any screw up along the way. But in Stephanie Pope who, is sitting on top of the production line in Seattle, there's somebody who's there every day. You can pick up the phone and call her. She gets back to you. She's really is well on top of it, and I would be very supportive of the work she's been doing. Maybe I'll add over -- so timetable on CLA, Eddie, while most of our labor contracts run out to -- our rates -- come up for renewal in April '27.

And there's a couple of labor contracts that will be up 2 or 3 on the pilot side and again, a similar number on the cabin crew side. But like a lot of what we're -- it's not always just about pay. I mean, if you look at the disruption that's happened against the background of ATC and Ryanair's ability allow its people to actually deliver sort of a stable working environment underpinned by the continuation of the plan for roster, which will be a key part of any discussions on the CLA. And we've seen also over the last number of years, one of the dividends of doing local labor contracts is that people now not only are in the right -- most people are in the right place where they want to be, and it's relatively easy in terms of how they're paid, the local bureaucracy administration and labs have made a huge investment with that in terms of -- it's so much easier now. It's easier than it's ever been in Ryanair's history for people in far-flown basis to get the smart things done, how do I get my time off, how do I get my payroll queries, and that's all done through sort of a platform called Ryanair Connect. So there's lots of things like pilots and cabin crew more than ever value given the disruption that are there -- the disruption that is driven by ATC to have a stable working environment. I mean like this August, for example, we had our lowest cancellation level ever, completely different from the previous season. A lot of that, again, is about recovering on the day. So we'll be talking with our union partners in terms of the renewal of agreements. We will try to do long-term stable agreement, but underpinned by superior working conditions that I think are increasingly becoming more valuable. So it's not all just about one.

Touch on the Spanish CLA?

We just concluded the Spanish CLA for the cabin crew, which was one of the last ones post sort of unionization. There were some bumps in the road, but actually was signed there last week, now we ratified by the local labor authority, and that's for cabin crew. That's very welcome. That goes out to 2030 into that deal. And that sort of sets somewhat of a benchmark for where we're going to go with the new deals that are going to come up, particularly on the cabin crew side.

And Darrell, you want to add anything to that on the CLA side and Chief People Officer? Darrell? Okay. Maybe Darrell's not on the line. Look, as you rightly say, Stephen, the labor contracts run out to April '27. That will [indiscernible] kind of is timed to meet the deliveries of the MAX 10s. And there's no doubt we're going to get a productivity gain out of those MAX 10 aircraft, not so much from the extra seats, but from the fuel consumption on the engines, which is dramatic. We are willing, I think, to share some of that productivity upside with our people. I think they -- but Darrell and his team have started those kind of discussions around 2026 and 2027. We have, as Tracey has already said, record low attrition. I mean we have almost no pilots and no cabin crew attrition at the moment. People are happy where they are. They're being well paid. They're in the basis they want to be in. Clearly, the Gulf carriers, which would historically have been a kind of the valve that would have recruited a lot of our pilots they don't have any capacity growth either at the moment. So things have never been more stable. But I think we will be seeing productivity gains coming over the next couple of years, and we are certainly minded to do deals with -- as long as we can do sensible deals. Will we do unsensible deals? No, we won't. I mean we've taken strikes in Belgium in the last 12 months. We've taken an occasional strike in Spain. We're happy to take strikes where people don't want to be stupid. We'll take strikes and we will face them down. But I think there is some upside coming in the next couple of years. And certainly, we will want our people to be at the front end of that. And if we can conclude new pay deals in the next -- either from April '26 or for April '27. And if that results in a step-up in labor cost, it's something I think we'd be willing to fund and finance. So watch this space, and we would hope to make progress on that over the next 6, 9, 12 months.

The next question goes to Alex Irving of Bernstein.

Two from me, please. First on ancillaries. Really good to see that robust growth continuing on from Q1. What's driving that? Is it product innovation? Is it pricing decompressing 2 years into 1 as you reinstate the OTAs and flat unit ancillaries at this time of last year? And then related to that, what do you expect for unit ancillary sales over the coming years? Second question is on CapEx. You've previously spoken about peak CapEx of around EUR 3 billion in FY '30, '31. You talked about locking in some of the dollar weakness and some of those gains into your future CapEx budget. What are your latest expectations for peak CapEx? When and how much, please?

Thanks, Alex. So maybe I'll ask Tracey McCann to take the ancillaries question. And Neil, you might come in and do CapEx, our peak CapEx. Tracey, ancillary?

Okay. The ancillary growth, 3%. A lot of that is driven what we said from dynamic pricing. So we're starting to get better pricing on seats, better pricing on bags. We also have our order to seat service, which is increasing our onboard spend. And so probably fall back a little bit, you're going to be faced with the same thing on the comparables in the second half of the year. So maybe not as strong as the first half and probably about 2% per annum, I would say, beyond this year. But again, a lot of it is driven by what the labs team are doing in-house in driving them increments we can get on pricing.

Okay. Neil, do you want to touch on CapEx?

Yes, Alex, there's not a lot to add at this stage. We're only 35% hedged on the firm, the 150 aircraft. We haven't done anything on the options yet. The CapEx that we've guided in the past doesn't include engine shops. So it's a little bit premature to start changing numbers at this point in time. I prefer to wait until the engine shops agreed and then come out and refresh the numbers at that point in time.

John Norton here, Head of Trading. John, do you want to add on -- sorry, go ahead, Neil.

No, that's pretty much it.

John, do you want to add anything on CapEx on the treasury or currencies?

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Yes, look, we've got a nice layer in place there on the CapEx [indiscernible] for the MAX. I mean when you look at it at the start of the year, where euro dollar levels were down at 1.02, 1.03 in January. And then when you also factor in when the contract was signed and it was at 1.08. We have that nice space in place now to take us forward. Now we'll just look for opportunities when we see them just where markets going forward to build on that.

The next question goes to Dudley Shanley of Goodbody.

Two questions. The first one, Michael, you were on CNBC this morning. And I think if I'm listening to you correctly, you said the consumers seem to be a little bit more price sensitive at the moment. How are you seeing that coming through your business? Is that just a temporary thing? And then the second question was to do with capacity constraints. Just what are you watching on that kind of 3- to 5-year view that it will remain as constrained? I know some people have been talking about the likes of aircraft from people like Spirit and think that's been shifted over to Europe. What do you watch?

Thanks. I mean where do we see consumer price sensitivity at the moment, I think, is the fact that forward bookings without any price promotion at the moment are running close to 1% ahead of where they were this time last year. And this time last year, we were actually coming off the kind of OTA pricing down 7%, lower fares. At the moment, fares are up in the first half of the year, 13%. We think that will be a little less in the second half of the year. And yet we're -- pricing is coming -- running against us or forward bookings are running against us. If anything, we're kind of slightly closing off cheaper seats to try to restrain forward bookings because clearly, we want to keep as much capacity we can for the closer-in bookings, particularly as you run up against Christmas and the New Year. In markets where we are expanding capacity, regional Italy, very strong. A new thing we've identified recently in Italy is Alitalia -- seem to have a number of their aircraft fleet grounded, particularly in the domestic market as the shortest spares. And we are expanding -- seeing very strong loads. Okay, the prices are lower in domestic, Italy, domestic Spain, that kind of stuff, but strong growth. And I note there is clearly a bit of consumer price sensitivity there. I'm campaigning aggressively against Rachel Reeves putting up APD or doing any more damage to the U.K. economic growth. But in a kind of slightly bizarre screwed up way, the more she damages economic growth and confidence in the U.K., the more people will switch away from paying higher fares to BA and others on to Ryanair. So I think that all augurs well for our growth over the next couple of years. Capacity constraints, what do we look for? I mean the only thing you can really look for is Boeing and Airbus orders. And they are -- the most recent one was Turkish, which I think was kind of preannounced by Trump when he was sitting with Erdogan at some meeting in Ankara. And even Turkish, which has announced an order for, I think, 200 or 250 narrow-body 737s, but they have no engines. They're now complaining that they can't get a deal out of the engine manufacturers. I mean in our day, when we order aircraft, you're Boeing, you go sort out the engines. But we wouldn't buy, order an aircraft unless it has engines attached. The market has moved so aggressively in favor of the engine manufacturers. People are now kind of ordering aircraft but with no engines and then kind of being price takers when they go to do deals on aircraft. Really, I don't see anything -- I mean if some of those aircraft appear out of Spirit, I think the chance of those appearing in Europe are 0. Airlines in Asia or in the Middle East and would be much more aggressive and willing to pay much higher lease rates than airlines in Europe. I see no demand among Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, IAG for capacity growth. They're all playing the same game. They've consolidated. They want to control capacity. If any, they'll keep shaving capacity so they can get air fares up. Wizz has canceled or desperately trying to -- well, IndiGo, not Wizz are definitely trying to postpone those Airbus orders into the mid-2030s, which by the time you've added 5 or 6 or 10 years of escalation, those already expensive aircraft will be even more expensive. And all easyJet is doing is upgauging from an A319 to 321s at their fortress airports, Gatwick, Paris, Switzerland. That makes sense. It's a sensible thing to do. But as we track across Europe, as Michal has said in Central Europe, we don't see Wizz anywhere. In fact, as Eddie has mentioned, most of the big incentives we'll get -- growth incentives we're getting from airports are from Wizz customer airports who are shooting themselves that Wizz is going to go bust in the not-too-distant future. I think there's a reasonable prospect and are getting Ryanair to come in there and kind of, if you like, almost as the insurance policy against a Wizz collapse. Now I don't think Wizz will collapse. But I mean, as a competitor, we wouldn't pay any attention to them at all. I mean the idea that they're going to close one of their desert bases in Abu Dhabi, noteworthy that they haven't closed the one in Riyadh, and they're going to move that capacity back to Central and Eastern Europe, well, [ whoopty doo ]. We haven't seen them yet. I think they've expanded their definition of Central and Eastern Europe to the stands. Apparently, most of the stands are now in Central and Eastern Europe, if you go by the Wizz definition. Meanwhile, we're charging in on top of them in Albania. They were competing with us in Italy and in Austria where 2 or 3 years ago, they disappeared. So we have a reasonably benign kind of map across Europe where most airports want us to grow there. And increasingly, countries want us to or incentivizing us to grow by abolishing environmental taxes. And that is Sweden, Albania. I don't go through the list again. One of the areas where airports were growing fastest in next year would be in Bratislava, where we had a 3 aircraft base. An hour up the road, the Austrians have failed to abolish their stupid environmental tax, which was less than EUR 160 million a year. Vienna has put up its fees by 30% since COVID. And all of the airlines, including now Ryanair are taking aircraft out of Vienna and putting in Bratislava. We had already announced an increase in our Bratislava base in 3 to 5 aircraft next year. And then about 3 weeks later, Wizz announced they're going to open 2 or 3 aircraft based in Bratislava, which is wonderful. Because in order to be able -- the only thing we could do to respond to Wiz arrival in Bratislava is put up our airfares there. So they'd be somewhat competitive with Wizz who come in there with fares that are about 40%, 50% more expensive than Ryanair. And the outcome will be exactly the same as it was previously in Vienna or in Italy. Wizz will lose, we'll win and the people of Bratislava will be left with the lowest fare airline, Ryanair, delivering all of that growth. But in Slovakia, there's a new transport minister, a new government, they've abolished environmental taxes. They've cut ATC fees by 50%, and the airport is incentivizing growth. Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves is over here in the U.K., considering whether she further increases APD, taxes the rich and follows the Marxist-Leninis North Korean growth model, which consists of taxing the s*** out of everything that moves with the result that nothing [ broken ] moves in the end. But to the extent that the U.K. economy suffers, I think more and more English people we can take will start fleeing to Ryanair and away from high-fare airlines like easyJet and BA.

The next question goes to Conor Dwyer of Citi.

First question is for you, Michael. You were talking about how ETS credit prices should come in line with CORSIA, which would obviously be quite material if that did happen. But how much of this is hope and how much you think this might actually change? Is there a political will for this? And then the second question for Neil, on the cost per pax. It was obviously up 1% in the first half of the year, and you're talking about a bit of acceleration to the back half of the year, I think. You've got quite a strong fuel hedge position for that. So I'm just wondering where are you expecting some nonfuel cost pressure in the back half of the year?

Thanks, Conor. I mean talking about moving ETS to CORSIA, somebody has to leave the campaign. We've been calling for this for about 2 years. We didn't have the support of the flag carriers in A4E, Lufthansa, IAG or Air France-KLM. But they're now much more badly impacted by the withdrawal of free ETSs because they haven't grown for the last 10 years, most of their traffic was covered by free allowed ETS allowances. As Europe unwinds those free ETS allowances, they're getting much more hit or the cost impact on them is much more severe. And lo and behold, they're all now campaigning for moving -- well, if we're not going to abolish ETSs altogether, at least move in line with CORSIA, it is utterly indefensible that Europe taxes the s*** out of Europeans traveling within Europe. And yet the Americans, the Gulf carriers, the Asian carriers, all land and take off in Europe. They account for 53% of European aviation CO2 emissions and yet pay nothing. So I think the fact that A4E is now unanimous on this, I mean, how much of it is -- I'm much more optimistic that we will see some movement on that. Now we still have the dead hand of Ursula von der Leyen to deal with. But ultimately, I think you can even embarrass an incompetent German into -- I can actually do something on competitiveness. The Draghi report is 14 months old. She's done absolutely nothing. And I think if we build ahead of steam there, there's a reasonable prospect that Europe through the fog of failure will ultimately want to do something other than spend hundreds of billions on defense, but to make its economy more efficient. And air travel is clearly one of the ways of doing that. It would be material. It would be result in a dramatic or a significant reduction in airfares. Remember, passengers are paying these ETSs. It would result in a significant reduction in airfares. But at least it would mean that everybody in Europe is paying the same fair share as the non-Europeans. -- whereas at the moment, the Europeans paying all of the taxes, the non-Europeans getting completely free ride and useless Europe in the middle of it or useless von der Leyen sitting in the middle of it, terrified of Trump or taxing the non-Europeans. And so I think it's a call whose time has come. I also believe, and again, I'm one of life's great optimist, that actually, we will embarrass her into doing something about air traffic control or at least defending and protecting the single market. She was the one who was singing most vociferously during the Brexit negotiations that the single market is sacrosanct. We will do everything to defend the single market unless, of course, a couple of French air traffic controllers want to go on strike. So I think ultimately -- and I am much more motivated. Commissioner Tzitzikostas is really a guy who wants to get things done. He wants to deliver change. I think he really does want to transform air travel in Europe. He's from Greece. Therefore, they're very sensitive to making air travel more efficient. And I am very hopeful that him, together with the unanimity out of the A4E airlines, we will see some movement in Europe on ETS in the next year or 2. Neil, unit cost per passenger?

Yes, sure. Conor, a couple of bits and pieces. Firstly, I would expect that air traffic control charges will go up again in January this year. The service is just so abysmal that they have to put it up again. I think you'll see some of that marketing spend. I talked about some timing in there. Some of that will catch up into Christmas and into the stimulation for the advertising ahead of the summer. We're starting to see the Boeing compensation unwind. So that will have an impact on the maintenance line where some of those maintenance credits went. And then with the heavy maintenance at the back end of the year. Tracey also talked about we're going to start recruiting up on the cadets. That will kick off probably in the January time frame. So we'll be ramping up on the cadet side, but we'll also be ramping up as we always do ahead of the summer of 2026. So that tends to be back-ended costs in there, which is why I'm kind of been keeping the 1% to 3% unit cost inflation.

The next question goes to Savanthi Syth of Raymond James.

Just on the first one, another question on the unit cost. But given you have hedging in place for next year and clarity around the Boeing deliveries, I was wondering if you could provide any kind of early thoughts on how we should think about fiscal year '27 unit costs? And then maybe a second question, just on the debt side. Usually, airlines that even have kind of good balance sheets find some value in having debt and being involved in that side of the financial market. So kind of was curious is the 0 debt view just ahead of kind of -- you do have the MAX CapEx -- MAX 10 CapEx, engine shop, other opportunities. So is that kind of a temporary 0 debt view? Or do you have a different kind of philosophy on the debt side?

Yes. Thanks, Savi. I mean I think on the hedging, I mean, I'll ask Neil to come back in and correct me if I get something wrong here. It's too early yet. We haven't done the budgets for FY '27. So I wouldn't get into unit costs at this stage other than we banked EUR 650 million in fuel cost savings with the fuel hedging. So that's a good strong start. I think the 2 critical elements on the hedging is we've hedged 80% of FY '27 fuel at just under $67 a barrel. We've made good progress on the currency hedging on OpEx. I'll ask John to come in -- John Norton to come in on where are we on the OpEx hedging for FY '27?

Yes. So we reached 80% of FY '27 at a level of [ 150 ]. So...

Where were we in the prior year?

So [ 1.11 ] [indiscernible]

Okay. So we've hedged away OpEx and a little bit of saving as well. And then clearly, it's not material in FY '27, but we've started to hedge the fixed orders on the MAX 10. So the hedging is locked down. We have the 29 aircraft will be delivered by Boeing. And I think that's much more critical here into FY '27. We have certainty now that we'll be able to deliver the headline traffic growth. And that's what drives ultimately the airfares and what drives the ancillary revenues. On the debt side, we're in this kind of artificial period. We have this kind of 2-year interregnum from '25 to '27, where in reality, we don't have a lot of CapEx. We could -- and we have -- we're coming up to -- in May next year, we have the 1.2 million bond. I mean we raised that coming out of COVID at less than 1%. So the cost of refining that bond that currently would be somewhere close to or close to about 3%, which isn't -- it's not a lot of money, but we don't need it at the moment. And therefore, collectively as a Board, our view is we should demonstrate to the market that we can pay down these bonds. When we start getting into '26 or '27, I think we would reserve the right to start. We would probably go back to the bond market as we get into the heavy CapEx again on the MAX 10. But we do so coming off with a strong balance sheet, BBB+ rated and say, look, we paid out back $4 billion worth of bonds post-COVID. And so I like -- we like the sense of we're not trying to be 0 debt for some kind of bulls*** philosophical reasons. We would expect to be -- to raise debt as long as we can raise debt cheaply, but only when we move into a period of heavy CapEx, which is where we'll be in '28, '29, we only take 15 aircraft in '27, we get another 15 aircraft in '28, but then we move up towards closer to 50 aircraft in '29 and '30. And so I would be of the view, you will see us pay down the last bond in May. We will try to build up gross cash of somewhere between EUR 3 billion and EUR 4 billion out of that. Other than that, we'll return the surplus cash to shareholders in dividends and buybacks. But then as we get into the heavier CapEx in '27, '28, '29, I think you'll see us go back to the bond market. Like there's nothing here. We have no principles here in terms of being -- having debt or being debt-free. It's just because of this kind of slightly strange -- it's the first time in 30 years, we go through a kind of a 2-year period with very little aircraft CapEx, pay down the debt, and then we can always refi again in '28, '29 from our position of strength. I don't know if you want to add anything on that on the debt.

Yes, I'd agree with that, Michael. I mean it's very much down to a cost decision at the moment. The cheapest way to fund ourselves is out of our own cash resources. And that's why we've decided to repay that bond out of our own cash. We've got nearly EUR 1 billion in dry powder in the form of our undrawn revolving credit facility. And as we've done in the past, we'll be opportunistic when we go back to the bond market. We'll go back at the time of our choosing and not just because there's a bond maturing and we have to roll it over. And I think that's how we will lock in the lowest cost ultimately long term for the group. So as Michael said, it's not just we have to be debt free. It's just it's going to fall that way for a period of time, and then we'll be back in the markets again.

And again, I would draw the point, as you look forward in terms of unit cost going forward FY '27. You look at our competitor airlines across Europe, the so-called low-cost airlines, they have huge net debt on their balance sheet, aircraft leasing costs, financing costs. And those costs are rising into the -- for the next year or 2. We will have 0 financing costs. We own 650 aircraft completely unencumbered. And it is another point of difference between us and the competition. It's also one of the reasons why they need to get airfares up in the next year or 2 to as their financing costs are rising and they have a huge leasing obligations. And why I think our underlying airfares may well rise into '27 and '28, whereas our unit costs will be well under control.

The next question goes to James Goodall of Redburn.

I just got a couple of follow-ups. So firstly, just on the MAX 10 deliveries. Do you know how many deliveries to other airlines are in front of you in the queue? I mean it looks like various airlines like United, Alaska, they've been pushing back some MAX 10 deliveries from '26 to '27. So I'm just trying to gauge the risk profile to you if the program gets pushed back any further, which I guess seems lower now given the deferrals from those airlines, but I would love your thoughts there. And then secondly, just following up from your comments around forward bookings being up 1 point in Q3. Does that forward book load factor level differ between the peak and the shoulder periods in Q3? And I guess, what does the higher book load factor level mean for you in terms of pricing strategy in the late market?

Okay. Thanks, James. Eddie will do the forward bookings. Let me touch on the MAX 10s. I mean, yes, one of the reasons why we're growing increasingly confident we'll get our first 15 deliveries in '27 is we are not delaying our MAX 10 orders. United who were the lead customer, I think, has delayed them. One stage they were talking about canceling the MAX 10s. We offered to step in and we take any MAX 10s they wanted to cancel. But it has helped, I think, Boeing to catch up with their production. I understand there's about 2 airlines in front of us. I think WestJet is one, Alaska might be another who are still ahead of us in the queue. Their due deliveries in middle to late 2026. Not sure whether they'll get them or not around. I think there's a reasonable prospect that the lead customer is likely to get the first MAX 10 deliveries in probably Q3 or Q4 of '26. We have about 6 months of headroom there before we get our first aircraft. And I would be reasonably confident we will take them. I don't think we'll be the lead operator. I don't think we'll get the first MAX 10 aircraft, but we might be second or third in the queue. And to those -- to my mind, it made no sense for United or some of those others to postpone the MAX 10s because you postpone them into the late 20s or early 30s, you're just paying a couple of more years of escalation. I would rather take the aircraft as quickly as I can get them. We don't have escalate -- well, we have -- we built in our price -- the price is averaged over the lifetime of the deliveries between 2027 and 2034. I want those aircraft as soon as I can possibly get them. I would happily take an aircraft -- any aircraft that has 20% more seats and burns 20% less fuel, will be an economically much more efficient and an environmentally much more efficient aircraft to operate here in Europe. And I would take as many as I can get as soon as I can get them, which is why we stepped in when United stupidly announced that they wouldn't maybe take theirs. I said, well, we'll take anything that United wants to cancel. They finished up not canceling and just postponing. I think we're about third or fourth in the queue, but it will be a reasonably short queue. I think the first deliveries will take place in Q3 or Q4 of '26 and our first 15 are in the spring of '27. Eddie, do you want to talk about forward bookings through November, December, maybe into Q4?

Yes. I mean in Q4, we're only about 10% booked, so very little for Q4, so very little visibility there. If you look forward to, say, November has required some price stimulation, but we're happy with load factors. If you look in December and January, I mean, we've learned as well from previous years in terms of trimming our schedules as well there, particularly as we get into the -- beyond the first 10 days of January and also doing some trimming around the early December as well. So look, we're about 76%, 77% booked for November. Like our bookings are ahead of where they're marginally ahead of where they've been for each of those months, both November -- like November, December and January, comfortable with what we're seeing, but November is the one that needed a little bit of needed price stimulation to get there. But looking, we don't have to dig too deep, but we're ahead. And so we're happy, but you do have limited visibility. And like really like with 10% of bookings for Q4, you have no real visibility whatsoever.

The next question goes to Muneeba Kayani of Bank of America.

I just wanted to follow up on your outlook for the fourth quarter. Why are you saying there's no Easter benefit because there is the earlier Easter and a couple of days will fall into the end of that. So just wanted to understand your thinking around kind of the base effects into the fourth quarter. And then just on EU ETS, what sort of increase should we be expecting in fiscal '27? Because it looks like hedging levels on that are just 11% right now and the prices have gone up. So how much of those fuel savings could be offset by the ETS costs going up?

Okay. I'll ask Thomas Fowler, who's the Director of Sustainability, maybe take the ETS question for you, Muneeba. Let me deal with the outlook. I mean, yes, Easter Sunday next year is on the 5th of April. So the first weekend of the school holidays will fall into the last weekend in March. But it's not significant. We will get a little bit of a bump. But I think at this point, we're better off just to say, look, there will be no Easter benefit in Q4. If we get a little bit in the last 2 days of March, great. But really, most of it will flow into April. It's really only when you get an Easter on the end of the 31st of March or 1st of April, you see the first -- as we did 2 years ago, the first half of Easter was in the prior year Q4. Almost all of the impact of Easter next year will be in Q1. There will be a couple of days in March. And if we get a little bit of a benefit out of that well and good, but there's certainly no point in going out now, we have 2 days of Easter in March next year, what can you do? We bug all visibility in Q4, and we won't have any until we get out to the Q3 numbers in February. And we -- that's all we're trying to communicate now, Muneeba. And now I'll turn to optimistic Tom for the ETS outlook for FY '27, and you won't touch on '28 yet, unless we [ hear ] from Ursula von der Leyen in between now and then.

I think Neil alluded at the call [indiscernible] outlook. We think the ETS and SAF costs go from EUR 1.1 billion this year to somewhere between EUR 1.4 billion and EUR 1.5 billion next year, depending on the outturn of where the pricing is. Obviously, it is higher. Prices are higher going into next year, and we have to unwind the final loss of the free allowances. So somewhere between EUR 1.4 billion, EUR 1.5 billion for FY '27.

Thomas, is it worth pointing out that's the last big step-up as well that we're going to have?

Well, the last step of velocity allowance is, obviously, fair pricing changes, Neil, yes, like we hopefully won't see step up at that level the following year until mandates increase on staff in 2030. We do see the mandates grow a bit in the U.K. literally to 2030. But obviously, given it's only -- it's a portion of our business, we don't get the full impact of that through the line.

And again, sorry, and it calls into question. If Europe is serious about being competitive, this bulls*** tax needs to be rolled back. We need to bring it in line with CORSIA. And it's one of the reasons this unwinding of the free ETSs while Lufthansa, Air France, IAG are now much more vocal about the need to have a fair and level playing field on environmental taxes in Europe. We can't just be taxing ourselves to debt in Europe and exempting the Americans, the Gulf, the Asians and everybody else. It's simply insane only the Europeans would sign something that stupid and self-defeating. And therefore, I think the more we can -- the more and louder we campaign, the more likely we are to see some progressive reforms and pushing back on this bulls***.

The last question goes to Ruairi Cullinane of Research RBC Capital Markets.

Yes, first question, a follow-up on the previous one. So it sounds like you're not focusing lobbying efforts on sustainable aviation fuel mandates. Would you like to see any changes there to rules in the U.K. or EU? And then I wondered if you'd be willing to comment on whether the U.K. has diverged at all from the Q2 fare trends you've reported or 3Q booking trends?

Sorry, Ruairi. Just speak up, you're very faint there on the -- I got the first half with the SAF. What's the second question?

Yes, the second question on the U.K. Has the U.K. diverged at all from the Q2 fare trends you've reported or Q3 booking trends that you've seen across the group?

Okay. Look, SAF, I'm not a believer -- sorry, I'm a believer in SAF, but I mean, there is simply -- the volumes will not be there to meet the EU 6% mandate by 2030 or the U.K.'s insane 10% mandate. You have the oil majors at the moment going back from the production of SAFs under pressure in the White House. I think the -- I think I join and I support the call of all the A4E airlines in Europe. We need to move these mandates to the right -- we may get to 6% or 10% by 2035, but I think there's no prospect of getting there in 2030. And I would be surprised even if the oil majors don't produce the SAF, there's nothing we can do to supply it. These are just another example of European -- British and European lack of competitiveness. The environmental agenda, there's a war in Ukraine, Trump in the White House. There is no, I think -- what is the word, there is no significant where -- if anything, the whole environmental agenda is moving backwards. We need competitiveness in Europe. And if the Swedes who were the home of the original environmental tax and flight shaming and all, if they worked out that Greta was wrong and they're abolishing their environmental tax, then surely the rest of the dodos in Europe will do likewise. So I think there is, I think, very little prospect of those SAF mandates being met in 2030. I don't think as an industry, we should abandon SAF, but we do need a much more either Europe and European governments should use some of the environmental taxation, this astonishing the SAF or the ETS taxation to incentivize the production of SAF or move the SAF mandates to the right or further out into 2030. There's nothing we see divergent in the U.K. Sorry, I'll let that to Eddie. Eddie wants to answer that question. U.K., Q3, fares and...

I mean, as I said, like in November, required price stimulation. And even though -- if you look at U.K. leisure, U.K. leisure for us is about 1/3 of all of our seats out of the U.K., like where we've got -- you do see some price pressure there. But just in November, a lot of capacity has gone in there in the market. I think it's causing a lot more pressure for our competitors. It's a very small part of it. If you look at the rest of the U.K., our city to city, our ethnic traffic to the U.K. and Ireland and all that, that's in line with the rest of the network. That's only a slight call out there in terms of U.K. leisure, I would say. And a lot of it would be focused in the region, a lot of capacity within post-COVID. Some of that went to our competitors' way in terms of holidays last year. I think they're feeling more of the pain, but we're getting to those factors.

But are you seeing any divergence in U.K. traffic in [ U3 ] compared to non-U.K. or EU traffic in...

I mean the only call that I would have is some of the U.K. leisure in November. And it's a very small part of our business, and the rest of the U.K. is as robust as the rest of the network Europe.

Okay. Ruairi, does that answer the question?

Yes.

Good. Okay. Any other questions, Nadia?

We currently have no questions.

Okay. Listen, folks, thank you very much. I think we've done, what, 1 hour and 25 minutes. We appreciate your time on the call. We have extensive roadshows on the road, Ireland, U.K., Europe, North America for the remainder of this week. If you'd like a meeting on a one-on-one, please contact us either through Jamie here, our Head of IR or through the Citi, Davy, Goodbody. Thanks to Citi, Davy and Goodbody for arranging and facilitating the roadshow, and we look forward to meeting you all at some stage over the remainder of this week. If anybody wants to come visit us in Dublin after that, please feel free. As long as you fly Ryanair, we'll be happy to meet you. And otherwise, I think we are reasonably cautiously optimistic on the outlook, if not for the next 12 months, but I think for the next 4 or 5 years, keep focusing on the fundamentals. Capacity is going to remain constrained in Europe. We are doing much better deals with airports across Europe. Governments select -- are increasingly reversing these environmental taxes. And therefore, I think there's a reasonable -- I'd be reasonably cautious that we're going to see controlled growth certainly to 250 million passengers by 2030, 300 million passengers by 2034. And there's a prospect plus or minus the occasional unforeseen event that profit -- net profit per passenger will over that period of time, although lumpily move from EUR 10 towards EUR 12 towards EUR 14 per passenger. And we hope you'll all join us for the ride and see where it goes over the next 4 or 5 years. Thank you for your time. Look forward to being here this week, and thank you very much. We'll wrap it up there, Nadia, please. Thank you.

Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.