Operator
Operator
Hello. And welcome to the Ryanair Third Quarter FY ‘19 Results Call. Throughout this, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and after, there will be a question-and-answer session. Just to remind you, this is being recorded. So, today, I am pleased to present, Michael O’Leary, Chief Executive; and Neil Sorahan, CFO. Please begin. Michael O’Leary: Okay. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Ryanair Q3 results conference call. I am here with management team in Dublin and Neil is joining us from London where he was doing the PR this morning. As you will see, all of the results were released this morning on the website at 7 o’clock. We have an MD&A tele or a video with MD&A on that, which should address much of the questions that might arise. A couple of quick themes, while they -- the €20 million loss in Q3 was disappointing, we take considerable comfort that all of it was due to weaker than expected airfares. There isn’t a cost issue here, but lower prices is good for our current and for our future traffic growth, bad for our competition. Ancillary revenues have performed strongly in the quarter, up 26% all -- and this helped us to offset higher fuel, higher staff cost and higher EU261 cost. Ryanair has the lowest unit cost of any EU airline and this gap is widening. We take delivery of the first five B737 MAX gamechanger aircraft from April. These aircraft have 4% more seats, are 16% more fuel efficient and they will drive unit cost efficiencies over the next five years. Unlike other airlines, we will be talking about adding lower cost to aircrafts and then seeing our aircraft’s ownership costs rise faster than our traffic. With these aircrafts, you will see our aircraft and ownership costs rise at a slower rate than our traffic growth over the coming years. The industry, however, continues to be bedeviled by overcapacity, particularly in short-haul Europe. As consolidation continues and weaker European airlines fail, some of them are currently up for sale at the moment. The airports around Europe are increasingly keen to attract Ryanair’s dependable, high load factor traffic growth, and David and the team are going through an extensive series of negotiations with airport and potential new bases, both as we conclude the winter ‘19 schedule and we are also beginning to focus on the summer 2020. Balance sheet remains strong with €2.2 billion of gross cash and we emphasize again we own 93% of our aircraft fleet of more than 450 aircraft, 60% of that fleet is unencumbered. In December Lauda acquired the remaining 25% of Laudamotion we didn’t already own Niki Lauda and his family. Lauda has had an exceptional -- is heading for an exceptional year on start-up loss. That loss has been reduced from an estimated €150 million to approximately €140 million. Most of this loss was accounted for by the very late release of Luada Summer ‘18 schedules due to the takeover of the airline from Lufthansa to France that showed up late with some fewer aircraft and expected that very expensive lease rates. Ryanair was able to supplement that fleet by giving Lauda 10 of our B737 aircraft last summer. But it meant that the schedules were very early on release and therefore we priced most of that schedule through last summer at very low prices just to fill. We are in a much better situation now with Lauda going into the second our summer of 2019. The airline will operate 24 aircraft up from 19 last year but of that 24 aircraft only five will be 737s. Lauda will operate 19 airbuses. We expect the losses will narrow very substantially in the year two of operation down from €140 million to a figure of anywhere between €50 million to breakeven, which is a wide range, but we really don’t know what the out -- final outturn on yields particularly the peak summer years will be in that German to Palma market, but we are reasonably optimistic. Underneath that, Lauda is growing its presence in the Vienna market very strongly and I think one of the noticeable development in the last six months has been level has scaled back its growth plans for Vienna almost entirely and we have seem to have slowed down their pre -- or their announced growth plans quite significantly. By year three, which is summer 2020, Lauda will be operating a summer fleet of 30 aircrafts. We have letters of intent already signed and we grow to be carrying 7.5 million customers, and we will be trading profitably. And the big trend at the moment remains higher oil prices and lower fares due to overcapacity at market. The past four months, we have seen a wave of EU airline failures, Primera in the UK, for example, Germania are currently seeking a buyer in Germany, that’s about 30-aircraft charter airline. We understand there are rumors they weren’t able to meet their January payrolls last week. WOW, Flybe in the U.K. are also for sale. The big one obviously is Norwegian, who have announced a significant multiple-base closures through the summer and into the winter, and I think, the key development of those base closures is they are all bases where they are competing with Ryanair, Las Palmas, Palma, Tenerife, Edinburgh and Belfast, and they are going to cut the Dublin base from six to one aircraft. They are trying to refinance themselves, but we can -- we would expect to continue to see not just in Norwegian, but among other loss making, low fares airlines further contraction, further consolidation in the winter of 2019. Brexit remains a major concern on our horizon. The risk of a no deal remains worryingly high. We have obtained the U.K. AOC to protect our three U.K. domestic routes, but that’s a tiny part of our overall operation. We will and have plans in place to proceed to place restrictions on the voting rights and the share sales of non-EU shareholders, which for a period of time after a hard Brexit will also include U.K. nationals, U.K. citizens. We do that to ensure that Ryanair will remain at all times an EU-owned and EU-controlled airline. In terms of forward guidance, we are on track. Our profit guidance for the remainder of FY ‘19 is to be in a range of between €1.0 billion to €1.1 billion. That is excluding the Laudamotion losses of about €140 million in the first year. We have a reasonable visibility on Q4 bookings now, but we can’t rule out further cost to airfares and/or cycling to our full year guidance if there are some unexpected Brexit and/or security developments over the next eight weeks. I have been a bit taken aback by some of the commentary that come from competitor airlines in recent weeks on their announcement of their December quarter results. It seemed to us they were all covering over the fact that their airfares were had been disappointing. None of them seemed to have met their original ambitions for stronger airfares during the winter. They were all pretty poor in terms of cost containment as well, it seemed to us they were trying to distract from those poor results by hoping and praying that the summer of ‘19 yield out total airfares would be stronger. We see no evidence of that at the moment. As of this morning, we have now 18% of our seats sold for the period from April through September. The average fare is 1% down on last summer, which is nothing catastrophic. It is a stronger performance than the pricing this winter or indeed last summer. But I think it is -- I would urge everyone to be cautious on pricing this summer. If Norwegian gets refinanced they would still be idiotic loss making capacity out there in the marketplace. Germania may not survive, but there are other airlines out there losing money, there is excess capacity there this summer and unless there is a more meaningful take out of short-haul capacity, we expect that airfreight the traffic growth in the summer ‘19 will be at the strong, but we expect it will be at the cost of airfares, which I think would be flat to slightly down in summer ‘19 and we see no evidence of the kind of promise or mythical fare increases that were being promised on the Wizz and easyJet conference calls in recent weeks. We have set out this morning, as well as some guidance for our shareholders. We are moving towards a Group structure, which is planned along similar lines of IAG. A very most senior management team will oversee the development of four separate airlines subsidiaries, Ryanair DAC, the Irish-based airline Laudamotion, Ryanair Sun and Poland, and Ryanair U.K. Each will have their own CEOs and management teams, but reporting to me as the Group’s CEO. We think this group structure will enable us to deliver a cost and operating efficiencies. Each of these airlines will compete with each other for both capital allocations, aircraft to deliveries and will also compete with each other to lower our costs. We in the Group structure will also give us the option to look at other small scale M&A opportunities and I emphasize small scale something like the success of development of Lauda over the last six months. In terms of Board succession, there was some uncertainty on that or some concern from some shareholders. We have announced this morning. I have agreed to enter a new five-year contract as the Group’s CEO. I will replace myself as the CEO of Ryanair DAC the Irish airlines between now and the end of the year. The Board has also set out its succession plans this morning. Thankfully, David Bonderman and Kyran McLaughlin have agreed to lead the Board for at least one more year until December of 2020. In the meantime, San McCarthy has agreed, the former Kerry Group CEO, who joined our board 2017. Stan has kindly agreed to take on the position of Deputy Chairman from April 2019 and he will transition to Chairman of the Board of Ryanair Holdings in December of 2020 to succeed David Bonderman and Kyran McLaughlin, who have indicated they don’t wish their names to go forward for reconsideration at the September 2020 AGM. So David and Kyran will serve at least something between another 12 months to 14 months, but then will not go forward to the September ‘20 AGM. With that, Neil, I am going to hand you over to you and give a quick run through the M&A and some key themes on the cost side.