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Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 23, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please standby, we are about to begin. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Redwood Trust Inc. 2016 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference call. During management’s presentation, your lines will be in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of management’s remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. I will provide you with instructions to enter the QA queue after management’s comments. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kristin Brown, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kristin Brown

Management

Thank you, Dana. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us to review Redwood Trust’s fourth quarter 2016 earnings report. Before we begin, I wanted to remind you that certain statements made during management’s presentation with respect to future financial or business performance may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, forecasts, and assumptions that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage you to read the company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, which provides a description of some of the factors that could have a material impact on the company’s performance, and could cause actual results to differ from those that may be expressed in forward-looking statements. On this call, we will also refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be utilized in isolation or considered as a substitute for measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are also included to aid investors in further understanding the company’s performance and to provide insight into one of the ways that management analysis Redwood’s performance. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is provided in both our third quarter earnings press release and the Redwood review available on our Web site redwoodtrust.com. Also note that the content of this conference call contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of today, Thursday, February 23, 2017. The company does not intend and undertakes no duty to update this information to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Finally, today’s call is being recorded and will be available on the company’s website later today. For opening remarks and introductions, I will now turn the call over to Marty Hughes, Redwood’s Chief Executive Officer.

Marty Hughes

Management

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for participating in Redwood’s fourth quarter 2016 earnings call. Joining me on the call is Chris Abate, Redwood’s President and CFO. Following my remarks on our key financial metrics and accomplishments over the past fiscal year, and our thoughts on the year ahead, Chris will discuss the quarter’s investment and residential mortgage banking activities and our financial results for the quarter. 2016 was a very productive year for Redwood, our GAAP earnings were $1.54 per share versus $1.18 in 2015. Our GAAP book value per share increased to $14.96 at December 31 from $14.74 at the end of the third quarter and $14.67 at the end of 2015. After incurring $10 million of restructuring charges, we generated 11.8% GAAP return on equity, grew GAAP book value, showed up our balance sheet by reducing short-term repurchase debt and freed up capital internally for reinvestment through profitable sale of our commercial mezzanine loan portfolio. We also delivered attractive and consistent quarterly dividends to shareholders that contributed to a total shareholder return of 25% for the year. Most importantly, we finished the year in a strong financial position and after making some difficult but necessary modifications to our shareholder strategy. We now have a more focused capable and efficient investment platform that is well-positioned for the current winds of change in the mortgage market. Looking to the year ahead, efficiently deploying our available capital at attractive returns is at the forefront of our priorities for 2017. We feel confident about her ability to create investments ourselves through our Sequoia securitization program, as well as other vehicles we may use to finance our expand prime choice loans. We also remain focused on new and innovative ways to take credit risk on residential loans and continue to pursue investment opportunities…

Christopher Abate

Management

Thank you Marty and good afternoon everyone. I like to begin with some comments on our recent investment activity. We deployed $91 million of capital into new investments during the fourth quarter with an emphasis on residential CRT securities and commercial multifamily securities. For the full year 2016 we deployed $419 million of capital, including $142 million into residential CRT, $85 million into commercial securities, $56 million into new Sequoia PRT in order RMBS, as well as $25 million into MSRs. We also deployed $82 million of capital into loans financed through FHLB subsidiary earlier in the year, allowing us to fully utilize our $2 billion of financing capacity at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago over the past three quarters. Finally, our convertible debt and common shares repurchases in 2016 totaled $29 million. In the first eight weeks of 2017 we have deployed $123 million of capital into new investments and are confident that we will be able to deploy our remaining excess capital on a disciplined and prudent basis across a broad spectrum of opportunities. We also sold $14 million of residential securities and $24 million of MSRs during the fourth quarter, bringing our total sales from our investment portfolio to $365 million for the full year of 2016. These sales split up approximately $205 million of capital for reinvestment and generated $23 million of realized gains for the year. Our portfolio sales in 2016 primarily focused on lower yielding legacy securities that are fully appreciated. While we continue to be opportunistic in terms of our sales activity, we currently expect fewer security sales in 2017 than we saw in 2016. We also expect to sell a significant portion of our remaining conforming MSR portfolio in 2017 and redeploy the proceeds into higher-yielding and REIT-eligible investments. Overall,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we’ll go first to Bose George with KBW.

Bose George

Analyst

Hey guys good afternoon. Actually a couple of questions, first, just wanted to dig into your guidance from mortgage volume a little bit. You know I guess $5 billion to $6 billion versus $4.9 billion last year, despite the pretty big decline that people are expecting for industry volume, so can you talk a little bit about the drivers of that, how much of that is Redwood Choice and what are the other kind of drivers of it?

Christopher Abate

Management

Sure, hey, Bose. It is – you know in keeping with the recent trends, we feel optimistic about our ability to maintain or potentially grow volume even in a declining origination market. You mentioned Redwood Choice, Choice is still ramping, as I indicated in the comments, but based on the early growth rate that we see, you know we’re hoping to achieve a run rate in the 15% to 20% range of annual volume. And really what that is indicative of just our emphasis towards purchase products. You know one positive factor for us is that you know even though the re-fi wave may have ended here last fall, we’ll see. We’ve got great purchase products to offer to our seller base, whether it’s Robert Choice or select products, that we’re confident that in primarily a purchase market we can still grow volume.

Bose George

Analyst

Okay, great. And what – actually what percentage of your production is purchased right now or was it last quarter?

Christopher Abate

Management

I don’t have the specific number, but it’s been in the 60% to 65% range.

Bose George

Analyst

Okay.

Christopher Abate

Management

It’s been as low as 50-50 and it’s been trending higher. So it’s – again, it’s a factor of interest rate spread and we expect to see more purchase activity.

Bose George

Analyst

Okay. And then just in the – in terms of your gain on sale margin guidance, what – the 75 to 100 now, up from 50 to 75, what mix does that assume between Redwood Select and Redwood Choice and is that the biggest driver of the new guidance?

Christopher Abate

Management

Well, it’s a few things. I think over time we want to get to a run rate in that 15% to 20% range, so it certainly factors in a higher percentage of Choice loans. I think we said in the past those with average about 125 basis points higher in rate, but it also reflects that our margins have been elevated for a few quarters here, I think for the year we ended just over 100 basis points for mortgage banking margins. So I think we feel good reducing that guidance, but it is going to be a function of Choice volume and just the direction of the market.

Marty Hughes

Management

And one other contributing factor has been, you know the results of securitization where securitization lagged our bulk whole-loan sales and right now our securitization execution is probably 25 basis points better than the bulk sales. So I think it’s a combination of those things.

Bose George

Analyst

Okay, great. That’s helpful, thanks. And just one question on a different topic, just the Portfolio Risk Transfer transactions that we saw earlier last year, you know it’s been a little quite on that front I guest since then any updated thoughts on how that product could potentially develop?

Christopher Abate

Management

Well, on the PRT specifically, I think many people have red some articles about an OCC commentary ruling about the risk capital relief for banks, specifically JPMorgan. At this point, it appears as though there won’t be additional PRT transactions in the near future. I think it’s important for us to note that we don’t expect any impact whatsoever to our positions. There was real risk transfer there, those are contracts. And you know the other side of it is, irrespective of whether or not there is additional PRT transactions, I think that the results of the U.S. presidential election took many people by a surprise and I think with that there could be additional regulatory changes. There has been talks about Dodd-Frank rollbacks and some other things. So, it’s hard to say at this point given the regime change, where ultimately regulation will end up and what the opportunities might be. But we do think as we indicated that the winds are blowing positively for private capital, so I think we’re kind of in a wait-and-see approach for future PRT.

Bose George

Analyst

Okay, great, thanks.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Vik Agrawal with Wells Fargo Securities.

Vivek Agrawal

Analyst

Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. I think you said you were looking to get 15% to 20% of your volume in the Choice program, is that what you need to be able to get to the point where you hold the loans or securitize them or is there other factors?

Christopher Abate

Management

You know in 15% to 20% we like to get it even higher, that’s a goal we have for the year to achieve that type of run rate. But ultimately securitizing Choice loans is a function of aggregation. I think once we get you a run rate in that range, the accumulation period for securitization will come down to a few months, which is something that we’re comfortable with. In the meantime there’s nothing keeping us from holding more of the loans. That said, we went through a period here where we wanted to validate our pricing, so Choice loans, we’ve been selling most of them through whole-loan distribution, we’re going to maintain two distributions over time, so we certainly hope to get a securitization completed at some point and then whether we hold the loans in portfolio or securitize them, we definitely like to do that on the coming quarter.

Vivek Agrawal

Analyst

And then on the $44 million on CRT securities and the $20 million in agency, commercial or multifamily, can you give us some more detail around what you bought there?

Christopher Abate

Management

In the fourth quarter?

Vivek Agrawal

Analyst

Yes.

Christopher Abate

Management

In CRT there is around $30 million of the M2s and M3s, $3 million of the M1s, $8 million of Bs and $3 million of IO. In multifamily, we continue to participate right in that triple-B range, where we’ve got 7 plus points of credit support. So we found an area there that we’re comfortable with and we’ve been adding to that position, obviously it’s very commentary to what we do on resi. So I think we’ve had some success in both of those and then in Q1 we’ve continued to acquire CRT securities as well as multifamily. And as Marty said, we completed two Sequoia transactions and we’ve also been active in subordinate RBS.

Vivek Agrawal

Analyst

Okay and then, I think in your comments you said that you bought down the repo, substantially down at $300 million, are you looking to continue to bring that down or is that sort of a level you feel comfortable with now presently?

Christopher Abate

Management

I think we’re comfortable Vik, you know right now I think it’s more reflective of the opportunities, you know I think we would add if we found opportunities where we wanted to use repo, maybe up the capital structure, but right now we’re very comfortable with our repo level.

Vivek Agrawal

Analyst

Thanks for the comments.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We’ll go next to Brock Vandervliet with Nomura.

Brock Vandervliet

Analyst

Great, good afternoon and thanks for taking the questions. I guess first on the MSR, I noticed in the Redwood review, I guess you may had mentioned it also that you are planning to sell that MSR portfolio. What was the kind of decisioning behind that?

Christopher Abate

Management

The real reason, Brock is, the MSR is really a business does. It’s not just an investment. I mean, we look at it opportunistically. But you’re not just owning IO with MSR. You need all of the infrastructure it entails to manage it and oversee, in our case, sub-servicers. So, from our perspective, you’re kind of need to be they’re all in or not. And on the conforming side, roughly, we felt like we either needed to grow our exposure significantly to the range of excess of $25 billion, or else pare back and reinvest in capital. So we’ve obviously decided that we’d like to pare that back. We’re going to continue to own jumbo MSR as a function of running the conduit. Most of that is created through Sequoia. So we’ll continue to do that and operate that. But I think on the conforming MSR side, we’re going to continue to pare that back and we’ve been doing that in the first quarter.

Brock Vandervliet

Analyst

Okay. And you’re deploying, but also freeing up pretty significant amounts of capital. You had $270 million available as of year-end. I guess, you’ve deployed about $120 million, $118 million, you’re going to be selling the MSR portfolios, selling some of the commercial mezz loans. What – what’s the total pro forma for some of those moves of available capital?

Christopher Abate

Management

Well, we had $270 million year-end and with the $120 million that purchase closer to the $150 million range. We said, the MSR sale is a strategic decision, and then we’re always going to have portfolio rebalancing. But right now, I even feel like, we’re ahead of schedule as far as our capital deployment for the year versus where we expected to be. So I feel good about our ability to put that capital to work in 2017 at this point. It’s hard to say, though, we also mentioned in the letter, this business entails lumpy capital deployment. There’s times in the market, where we don’t see anything that we like and there’s other times where we wish we had more capital. So it’s really going to be a function of market opportunities, as well as what’s going on in Washington and how that impacts the business going forward.

Brock Vandervliet

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes our conference. On behalf of management, we very much appreciate you taking time to participate in our earnings call.