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Revvity, Inc. (RVTY)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 14, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the PerkinElmer Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alex, and I'll be coordinating the call today. I will now hand over to your host, Steve Willoughby, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Steve Willoughby

Management

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to PerkinElmer's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Prahlad Singh, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Max Krakowiak, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone of the Safe Harbor statements that we've outlined in our press release issued earlier this morning and also those in our SEC filings. Statements or comments made on this call may be forward-looking statements, which may include but are not necessarily limited to financial projections or other statements of the company's plans, objectives, expectations or intentions. These matters involve certain risks and uncertainties. The company's actual results may differ significantly from those projected or suggested by any forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, which are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements made today represent our views as of today. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements in the future, even if our estimates change. So you should not rely on any of today's forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date after today. During this call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures we plan to use during this call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available as an attachment to our earnings press release. To the extent we use non-GAAP measures during the call that are not reconciled to GAAP, we will provide reconciliations promptly. I'll now turn it over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Prahlad Singh. Prahlad?

Prahlad Singh

Management

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I want to express my deep sorrow for our colleagues, along with their friends and families in Turkey and Syria following the recent earthquake. What you are having to go through is something no one ever thinks can happen. And I want you to know that PerkinElmer will be supporting you in any way we can. Needless to say, the start of the year has been an eventful one, and from a business perspective, we have hit the ground running after finishing 2022 on a strong note that played out right in line with our expectations from the start of the quarter. We continue to successfully navigate an evolving macroenvironment, particularly in China, while staying tremendously focused on executing our upcoming divestiture of our Analytical and Enterprise Solutions business, which we expect to complete before the end of March. Amid these undertakings, we, again, exceeded our total adjusted revenue and adjusted EPS targets for the quarter. The continued high level of execution throughout a period of transition for the company is a testament to the team we've built, the processes we've implemented and the quality of the businesses that comprise our new company. I couldn't be more excited for our future, and the impact I expect us to have by helping our customers develop and deliver novel scientific breakthroughs that will have a profound impact on improving global health in the future. I would be remiss not to also thank all our colleagues who have spent a significant amount of time and effort preparing for the upcoming split of the company, including those roughly 6,000 employees who will be part of the divestiture. I look forward to watching what the Analytical and Enterprise Solutions business can accomplish in the years…

Max Krakowiak

Management

Thanks, Prahlad, and good morning, everybody. As Prahlad mentioned, we are nearing the completion of our planned divestiture of our Applied and Enterprise Solutions business to New Mountain Capital, which we expect to wrap up before the end of March. Following the deal closure, we will continue our work to rebrand the company with an expectation of unveiling our new identity within the next few months. Until then, we will continue to refer to the Life Science and Diagnostics business externally as PerkinElmer just as we do today. With that said, we're very excited to share with you our new name, identity and mission when the time comes. As it pertains to the divestiture, our teams across both businesses are working extremely hard to ensure a smooth transition and I am grateful for everyone's continued efforts as we work towards a close over the coming weeks. While there has been and will continue to be a lot of work involved, I'm even more confident that this decision will maximize the long-term potential of both businesses and I look-forward to seeing it come to fruition. Once the deal is closed, we expect to set aside a sizable portion of the after-tax proceeds to prepare for our upcoming debt maturities over the next 18 months with an initial $500 million coming due this September. This will still leave us with ample capacity to pursue additional capital deployment activities as they arise, such as continuing our track record of finding strategically important and accretive acquisitions. With these proceeds and the cash we expect to generate, we will have more than $2 billion of additional unencumbered cash available to deploy over the next three years without taking on any new debt. We expect our future organic and inorganic investments will only further bolster the…

Prahlad Singh

Management

Thank you, Max. 2022 was clearly another strong year for PerkinElmer, but if we take a step-back and look at the past three years. Our focus was always to emerge from COVID as a stronger company. We believe that chapter has been successfully completed for both, the analytical and enterprise business as well as our new life science and diagnostics business. Within those three years our rapid and significant response to the COVID pandemic enabled more than 10 acquisitions fast-tracking the transformation of our company to higher growth and higher margin areas. Additionally, we embarked on a significant undertaking of splitting the company into two distinct businesses and yet through all that we've consistently executed on our financial targets which is a testament to our employees and pleasure we have created. Looking forward, 2023 will be no different as our teams rise to the challenge of finishing the divestiture, rebranding our company and continuously executing against our financial commitments. We are in an excellent position today and our future is very bright. With that operator, we would now like to open up the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question for today comes from Derik de Bruin of Bank of America. Derik, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Derik de Bruin

Analyst

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking the questions. So just Max, just to clarify something so your - your full end interest expense guide includes I'm just sort of - what are you assuming in terms of interest, interest income on the incremental. Just trying to make sure that $90 million guiding you're guiding is an all-in number is sort of like how you see it - if there is some potential upside of that depending on the interest rate?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, hi Derik. So for your question, yes, it is an all-in number. So right now, we're going to be probably putting aside, somewhere between $800 million and $900 million of the after tax proceeds into treasuries that will match up with the short-term debt that we have on our books. We've got the $500 million note coming due in Q3, 2023 and then we've got another $800 million coming due in Q3, 2024. And so our assumption is that, that $800 million to $900 million will initially go, there's a chance for upside, but that is an all-in number there.

Derik de Bruin

Analyst

Great, thank you for clear clarity. And when you look at the China progression in immunodiagnostics just sort of thinking about the one half of two halves expectation, I appreciate the color on the overall commentary on the business, but can you just sort of walk through how you're sort of seeing that flow through the model?

Prahlad Singh

Management

So well, maybe just to go back Derik, when you look - when we've seen China in our assumption right now is that it will be - overall China for us will be double-digit or growing above our company average growth rate for the - for 2023. And our assumption right now is it will come and come more into the second half of the quarter rather than - the second half of the year. And the first quarter, what we are assuming is China IDX will be worse than what we had approximately in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Derik de Bruin

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then just one final, if I may. Pricing assumptions for 2023?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes. So from a pricing standpoint, Derek, we're assuming at least 100 bps pricing contribution in 2023.

Derik de Bruin

Analyst

Great, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Patrick Donnelly of Citi. Patrick, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Patrick Donnelly

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Maybe following up on Derek there on the China piece. Prahlad, it was encouraging to hear you guys talk about 1Q being consistent with that, call it, 9% for the year, given the China headwinds upfront, COVID coming out of the model, obviously. Can you just talk about, I guess, it seems like you have good visibility into 1Q being at that level, when China comes back in that back half, I would have thought that would accelerate growth. Can you just talk about, I guess, the cadence throughout the year, why the back half wouldn't be stronger? Is it just layering in a level of conservatism in the back half? And then if China does indeed recover, you can kind of ride that to higher numbers. Just trying to get a sense there, given the 1Q guidance was pretty healthy from where we were standing.

Prahlad Singh

Management

I think Derek, - Patrick, sorry, you're right, I think if China - right now, the way we've assumed that it comes back to a normal growth rate in the second half of the year. Obviously, whether if it comes back faster or is more significant earlier than that, that would be upside to the model. And also, if the stimulus continues to sort of show its impact earlier, then that might be upside. So I think we've just been prudent in our guidance, seeing what we have seen in the first month of the - in the quarter when post - just before the spring festival. And it's been only a week since people have started coming back from this spring festival. So I think I would just say, we are being cautious in our guidance and continue to watch it closely.

Patrick Donnelly

Analyst

Okay. Understood. And then maybe on the margin side, certainly understand 1Q being a little lighter just given some of the continued ops piece. Can you just talk about, again, I guess, how we think about that throughout the year? And then particularly near-term, not - obviously, not asking for '24, '25 guidance just yet, but it seems like as those stranded costs come out, I wouldn't see any reason why we wouldn't be kind of 100 bps plus in the near term, just naturally as those come out. Can you just talk about, I guess, how that progresses in terms of the model? Again, the exit rate should be a little bit higher than I would think the near-term years skew on the upside as some of those stranded costs come out. But it would be helpful just to get a sense for what those look like as we work our way through the model here.

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes. Hi, Patrick. So the way I would think about it from a margin perspective in 2023 is if you go back to what we mentioned on the call, we are implying sort of a mid-teens EPS growth year-over-year when you strip out COVID from both periods. Implied in that mid-teens EPS growth is obviously the 9% organic growth, and then we are expecting about 100 basis points of margin expansion year-over-year on a non-COVID basis. So we are already to see about maybe 40% of that comes through the gross margin expansion, about 60% of that comes through operating expense leverage. So we feel good about the margin expansion we expect next year, which gives us, I think, even further momentum to your point on the midterm outlook and us feeling very confident in our margin expansion targets that we previously have put out there and don't see any reason why 100 basis points per year is out of the question.

Patrick Donnelly

Analyst

Great, thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Waldman of Cleveland Research. Josh, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Joshua Waldman

Analyst

Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple for you. First, I wondered if you could provide an update on BioLegend, maybe what the business grew here in Q4. Curious if it was impacted by China lockdowns, and thus, maybe represents potential upside to the model. And then just curious, what you're assuming for that business within that 9% non-COVID guide for '23?

Prahlad Singh

Management

Yes, Josh. Overall, as you know, our Life Sciences business continued to grow very well, our reagents business, and it grew double-digits for the year. We did not see any material change in the trend in 3Q or 4Q in our reagents business in China or any place else. BioLegend and our overall Life Sciences reagent business continues to do very well, and we expect it to continue to grow double-digits as we've said earlier.

Joshua Waldman

Analyst

Got it. And then Prahlad or Max, I wondered if you could comment on what you're seeing from maybe biotech and early-stage pharma accounts. It sounds like Pharma was up mid-teens in the Life Science segment, but applied genomics maybe a bit lighter. Just wondered if you're seeing any indication that these accounts are slowing spend. Anything leaving you more cautious on outlook within this end market?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, I'd say, first, from just a materiality standpoint, right, I mean the biotech or smaller accounts, which I think you're more referring to are only less than 5% of overall revenue. So even if we were to start to see some noise there, it's not overly material to the company. I think that's one piece of context I'd say first. Second, in terms of sort of the split between applied genomics versus the Life Sciences business, we are seeing a little bit of a slowdown in applied genomics. As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we do think there's a little bit of saturation just from the amount of instruments that have been placed over the past three years. That might continue a little bit here in Q1. We expect by the end of the year, applied genomics will be sort of at its normal run rate from an overall organic growth standpoint.

Joshua Waldman

Analyst

Got it. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Liza Garcia with UBS. Your line is now open. Please go-ahead.

Liza Garcia

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go-ahead.

Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So I guess, if we could start on talking about the informatics business, it's just been a bit since the last DAS deep dive, I think it was like 2022. So how do you think about the right growth trajectory for that business given the 20% that you guys got to accrue this year?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Hi, Liza, so I'd say, first, we've been very pleased with the performance of our informatics business, not only really in 2022, but over the last couple of years, it's had about a mid-teens CAGR. I would say that is sort of our normal, I would expect long-term growth rate. The only point I would call out with informatics is there are some timings of renewals, et cetera. So at times, the growth rate can be lumpy. But I would say, overall, we are very pleased with the performance. I don't think 20% is the go-forward growth rate. I do expect that to come down a little bit here in 2023, but we are very happy with the performance of that business.

Liza Garcia

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go-ahead.

Awesome. Thank you. And then I guess, just talking a little bit into like the reproductive health. I guess, a little bit softer this quarter, but - with the birth pressures, but you did have the - you've highlighted the FDA marketing authorization for SCID and SMA. How should we think about that? And kind of if you could provide any qualitative kind of update on Vanadis? That would be great.

Prahlad Singh

Management

Yes, Liza. So I think on reproductive health, on birth rates, continued to unfortunately have pressure in 2022. But I think, as you pointed out, right, we continue to have new reagents going through approval. While we got the approval, there are two new indications or disorders, as you know, that got approved by the RUSP panel, which I had in my prepared remarks, MPS II and now GAMT. So our menu expansion opportunities continue to bolster the reproductive health business. The thing is that as it gets approved by the RUSP panel and the FDA, states pick them up for adoption in their menu panel on a sequential basis. So some of them might come into play in 2023, the first half, some in the second half. So the states have the mandate based on their own flexibility as to when they want to bring out. Vanadis continues to do well. And I think as we've said, it grew more than 75% commercially last year and we continue to put in new installations. The value proposition that it brings to the table is gaining more and more traction with our customers now, more so in the U.S.

Liza Garcia

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go-ahead.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Arias from Stifel. Dan, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Dan Arias

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Thanks a bunch. Prahlad or Max, I hate to put too fine of a point on it, but the return to normalization for EUROIMMUN in the second half of the year, is that to say getting there by year-end or is that more like you think you'd improve through midyear and you can get back to normalization at some point in 3Q or 4Q? I'm sure you're not interested in giving growth rates by quarter, but it would just be helpful to get a sense for the shape of the curve, sort of to Derek and Patrick's point, just given that it does seem like that's the biggest swing factor here for growth in 2023.

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes. Hi, Dan. So the way I would think about it is when we look at the EUROIMMUN business in China and the ramp throughout the year, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks here, Q1 will be still a little bit of a headwind. We do expect it to be potentially even worse from a growth rate perspective than what we saw in Q4, which is approximately high single-digits. And so as you think about the ramp over the course of next year, I would think - or this year, excuse me, I would think about it in the context of the two-year average stack should continue to get better each and every quarter, so Q1 to Q4 and I think we've given all those prior year comps in previous calls here throughout 2022. And then I would expect sort of that the full year growth rate of that EUROIMMUN business to be in the low double-digits, low-teens, which is sort of the historical growth rate we've seen from that business.

Dan Arias

Analyst

Yes. Okay. That is helpful. And then maybe on margins and M&A, you've been pretty upfront here about having this extra dry powder that you think you can deploy for M&A later in the year 2024. So it feels like you're active there, but you've also made op margin improvement in one of the key selling points of the spin. So I guess, I'm just curious to what extent do you have an appetite for something that might be strategically positive, but dilutive to margins.

Prahlad Singh

Management

It depends on the opportunity, Dan. So it's tough to give a specific response to the question because it depends. As I've said earlier, we continue to be very active. We continue to look at opportunities that are in our sweet spot, which is more founder, entrepreneur-owned companies. Depends on what the opportunity is, is probably the best way to respond to the question. Let me give you an example. If it's a breakthrough technology like Vanadis, we would do it. But generally, if you look at the deals we've done, that should be a pretty good precursor of the deals we will do.

Dan Arias

Analyst

Do you think that the - if the revenue trajectory one that Vanadis has right now, that would still be something you'd be interested in?

Prahlad Singh

Management

Yes, it depends on the technology. So that's why I said that. Probably the shortest answer would have been, it depends.

Dan Arias

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Prahlad.

Prahlad Singh

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question for today comes from Jack Meehan of Nephron Research. Jack, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Jack Meehan

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Wanted to ask, so the $5.05 EPS guide for continuing ops, just trying to bridge this to newco. Can you provide latest thoughts on potential for trap cost versus the costs that are going to get allocated to spin? I guess, how close is this $5.05 to what newco EPS looks like?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, Jack, the way I would think about it is the $5.05 guidance includes the impact of continuing ops accounting headwinds that we're going to have in the first quarter or really the first couple of months until the divestiture closes. And then for the remainder of the year, yes, that - cont ops accounting will more or less turn into stranded costs, but that will be partially offset also by the TSAs that we will have. So sort of net-net, it all more or less washes out over the course of the year. We think $5.05 is a very good indication of what sort of the true LSDx performance is once you kind of put all that together.

Jack Meehan

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then one business question. Within Diagnostics, the applied genomics business, so understand the COVID headwind there, but I guess, the non-COVID also down low single-digit in the quarter. Can you just talk about what you're seeing, I guess, from like - there's obviously been a lot of instruments placed throughout the pandemic. Do you think there could be some hangover to start 2023?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes. I think I mentioned that earlier as well in one of the responses. I do probably - we do probably anticipate that to continue here in the first quarter. But I think as we look over in the full year for applied genomics, we probably expect it to be slightly down from this year on a non-COVID basis. So in 2022, it was high single-digits. We probably expect it for the full year to be slightly below that, but we do expect it to rebound sort of after the first quarter here.

Jack Meehan

Analyst

Got it. Thank you, Max.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question for today comes from Paul Knight of KeyBanc. Paul, your line is now open. Please go-ahead.

Paul Knight

Analyst

Hi, Prahlad. Is the - are the advances in spatial biology and faster flow cytometry, is this accelerating do you think the market for BioLegend or closed systems kind of keeping it where it's been? So kind of what's your opinion on this dynamic going forward for BioLegend?

Prahlad Singh

Management

I think spatial biology and proteomics and all of that is a growing area, Paul. But I think BioLegend and our Life Sciences research reagents business overall is a very strong portfolio that we are able to now deploy globally with the channels that we have access to that BioLegend didn't have. So I think the growth trajectory over the next foreseeable future just is in terms of providing the commercial footprint, the infrastructure, the capabilities and competencies of overall PerkinElmer rather than one particular area of growth.

Paul Knight

Analyst

And then last, regarding - with your better - I shouldn't say better, bigger platform, I would assume your M&A pipeline looks pretty robust now going into the next couple of years.

Prahlad Singh

Management

Yes. We will continue to be acquisitive as we have been, and we continue - we will continue to add growth trajectories to our portfolio given that we will have a robust balance sheet and we'll have an even more robust balance sheet post the divestiture.

Paul Knight

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Max Masucci from Cowen. Max, your line is now open. Please go-ahead.

Max Masucci

Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. First one, there is a GMA publication released last week. It was supporting broader use of rapid whole genome sequencing, for instance, - which today I believe is included in around six state Medicaid policies in the US. So it would be great to hear just generally your latest outlook for new reimbursement wins for newborn screening in the US this year, if that's changed at all?

Prahlad Singh

Management

Max, as you know very well, today, the way that newborn screening is done, that the states pay for it, right, it's not reimbursed. It's sort of - it's not a private insurance or an insurance reimbursement play. And I think the way our view of this is that going forward, newborn screening will continue to be mandated by the states and by RUSP and by the newborn screening law. In terms of rapid genome sequencing, as you said, for newborns, that as you - is going to be an area of interest for us and for others. There are certain regions where we are playing a role in it. But I think it will continue to be more esoteric and specialized for the foreseeable future. The cost the turnaround and the speed and the scale and magnitude, by which newborn screening is done by the state labs today is unmatched and it will continue to be so.

Max Masucci

Analyst

That's great, very helpful color, final one from me. It's nice to see the strong organic growth in the life sciences continuing operations, It would be great to hear some additional detail around the growth that you saw in the quarter for the legacy life sciences reagents business versus BioLegend and then sort of where we are in terms of realizing the operational synergies between BioLegend and the legacy Perkin reagent business?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, so maybe I'll answer the first question on the growth rates, and then I'll let Prahlad talk about the synergies here Max. So - again from an overall reagent standpoint in both the fourth quarter and the full year, we've performed at a low double-digit. I would say that was pretty consistent across all, our reagent portfolio, there's not one shining star versus another. So I think we're pleased overall with our reagents growth across everything from BioLegend, just bio some of our legacy reagent product lines, et-cetera. It was strong growth overall for everybody.

Prahlad Singh

Management

Yes and just to add to that BioLegend has a really strong team and the leadership there has worked with PerkinElmer team in terms of identifying exploring and now executing on synergistic opportunities and it's not just around commercial and operational, but also around technology and how do we continue to close the gap and the bridge between life sciences and diagnostics. So I think on all fronts, the teams are firing on all cylinders there, could not be more happy about that.

Max Masucci

Analyst

Great, thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Leonard from Credit Suisse. Dan, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Dan Leonard

Analyst

Great, thank you. I appreciate you taking COVID revenue out of your forecast, but curious, have your views changed at all on the non-COVID pull-through opportunity from instruments placed during COVID?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, Dan it's a great question. I would say, not really. And the reason why I say it look as we enter the sort of the fourth year of the pandemic. We now believe that customers have already largely transition sort of their underutilized former COVID capacity to other areas. So we think we've already started to kind of see this pull-through and it's kind of already occurred in our base. And we also think that's kind of why our applied genomics business has grown on a high-teen CAGR over the past three years, including high single-digits this year and then over 50% in 2021.

Dan Leonard

Analyst

Understood and Max, my follow-up. I'm trying to better understand the EBIT margin bridge from the 32% plus in Q4 to the 30% guidance for 2023, both for RemainCo. I know there's some COVID revenue in Q4, but not overly material. So what are the other drivers of the walk-down from that 32% to 30%? Thank you.

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, look truthfully, Dan. I would say it is heavily the walk-down is predominantly COVID. The one thing I'd say about the COVID mix that we had in Q4 was a very favorable product mix. And so, I know historically, we've quoted that COVID incremental's are sort of above our company gross margin. I think in the fourth quarter, it was an outsized margin mix related to our COVID products. I think once you normalize that for the fourth quarter, you're a little bit closer to sort of a 30% operating margin exit rate for continuing ops. Which then if you then factor in next year and 100 basis points of margin improvement you know the math sort of works out, but it wasn't significant pull out of COVID here from a margin perspective in the fourth quarter.

Dan Leonard

Analyst

Okay, got it that makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Sykes of Goldman Sachs. Matt, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Matt Sykes

Analyst

Thanks, good morning. Thanks taking my question. Maybe just to clarify just following-up on Dan's last question on margins, just if we focus on diagnostics you did 28.7% in the fourth quarter, and that was significantly lower COVID revenue than you've done in the past? So should we see that 28.7% just for diagnostics is being closer to the lower end, troughing as we kind of look out to 2023, understand that there is some China-related impact and other things like that, but just wanted to get a sense for that 28.7% where that is and sort of the range of margins you think diagnostics can do over the course of '23?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, hey Matt. So the way I would think about the margin composition of our life sciences and diagnostics business in 2023 is our life sciences business should be above the company average diagnostics will be slightly below. And then you have about two to three points of headwind just from our corporate expenses. So I think that's kind of how I would think about the market splits for 2023.

Matt Sykes

Analyst

Got it, thank you. And then just, Max post the debt pay-downs. Going into '24, how are you thinking about sort of a target net leverage, prior to any acquisitions like what's your comfortable range to be in sort of on an ongoing basis?

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, I think it's a great question. So we are definitely committed to remaining investment-grade. And so, I think that's what you'll see sort of reflected in our comfort from a leverage perspective. That's probably the best way to think about it Matt.

Matt Sykes

Analyst

All right, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rachel Vatnsdal from JPMorgan. Rachel, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Rachel Vatnsdal

Analyst

Great, thanks for taking the question. And so first off there's been a lot of discussion on China as it relates to the diagnostic side business. But you also flagged some of those tailwinds related to the potential stimulus? So can you just give us some color on what's assumed within your guidance for China stimulus tailwind? And then how do you think Perkin position to benefit from that. And then on timing, how long do you think that that stimulus benefit could play-out for us? Thanks.

Prahlad Singh

Management

Yes, hey Rachel good morning. It's on the stimulus. It's been only a week since folks have come back from the spring festival. So right now, our assumption is that if any - if we expect the stimulus to see strong growth or propelling strong growth that will be upside to our current assumption. But, I would say that we have just heard quite a bit of discussion around it. I think - the actions on that will be something that we look forward to see in the rest of this quarter and the next quarter.

Rachel Vatnsdal

Analyst

Helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up on your comments around and consistent guidance throughout the year on that non-COVID organic growth so can you just clarify that you mean on a stack basis. So for example, 1Q is 9% on a two-year stack versus 13% in the prior year. So that imply more like a 5% organic growth in 1Q or kind of how should we think about that on that commentary? Thanks.

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, hey Rachel. I think that's - exactly the right way to think about it, that sort of average 9% stack in Q1 would imply something in the mid-single-digit range for Q1.

Rachel Vatnsdal

Analyst

Great. And then last quick one from me. Just your commentary so you guys grew high single-digits ex COVID during 4Q in Europe, which was encouraging. But can you just talk about how have conversations with customers evolved in the past few weeks? It sounds like things have gotten better just from the energy crisis, less on severe winter than anyone was expecting. So what's your kind of outlook for Europe for the year as well? Thank you.

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, I think for Europe. What we've implied is that the growth rate for 2023 should be a little bit less than. I think what we're saying from a company average standpoint, something in the mid to-high single-digits is probably our sort of assumption right now for Europe.

Prahlad Singh

Management

And qualitatively, Rachel, what you said is pretty much what's playing out.

Rachel Vatnsdal

Analyst

Great to hear, that's it from me. Thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question for today comes from Vijay Kumar from Evercore ISI. Vijay, your line is now open. Please go ahead. I'm sorry Vijay. We're not receiving any audio. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Sorry Vijay - you might be on mute, sorry Vijay, we're not receiving any audio. My apologies we're not receiving any audio from Vijay.

Prahlad Singh

Management

We will touch base with him. Post this.

Max Krakowiak

Management

Yes, we'll follow-up with him. We can probably just wrap-up now. Thank you everyone for your time, your questions this morning and we look forward to speaking with everyone again next quarter. Take care.

Prahlad Singh

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.