Earnings Labs

Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHB)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 14, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Rush Enterprises, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Rusty Rush, President, CEO, and Chairman of the Board. Sir, you may begin.

Rusty Rush

Analyst

Well, good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and year-end 2023 earnings release call. On the call are Mike McRoberts, Chief Operating Officer; Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer; Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller; and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Now, Steve will say a few words regarding forward-looking statements.

Steven Keller

Analyst

Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year-ended December 31, 2022, and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Rusty Rush

Analyst

As indicated in our news release, we achieved annual revenues of $7.9 billion, and net income of $347 million or $4.15 per diluted share. In the fourth quarter, we achieved revenues of $2 billion, and net income of $78 million or $0.95 per diluted share. In addition, we are pleased to declare a cash dividend of $0.17 per common share. Throughout 2023, there was pent-up demand for new commercial vehicles due to limited production over the past few years. With respect to new Class 8 trucks, that pent-up demand was largely fulfilled by the end of 2023. With respect to the Class 4-7 commercial vehicles, demand remained solid. The manufacturers we represent were able to increase production throughout the year, which led us to significantly – I believe, this is significantly outpacing the industry with respect to new Class 4-7 commercial vehicle sales. Despite a challenging operating environment in 2023 caused by low freight rates and high interest rates, which led to great general softness in parts and service sales industry-wide, we were able to achieve a healthy growth in the aftermarket revenues. The growth was due primarily to our ability to support large fleets and strong demand from the diverse range of market segments we support, including our refuse, public sector, wholesale and energy customers. In addition, our aftermarket revenues also increased due to the addition of 215 service technicians to our network. Expanding our service technician workforce is a key aspect in a certain of our strategic initiatives. Overall, we are very proud of both our operational and financial performance in 2023. In the aftermarket, our annual parts, service and body shop revenues were $2.6 billion, up 8% over 2022 aftermarket results. And our annual absorption rate was 135.3%. As I previously mentioned, we added 215 service technicians…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens. Your line is open.

Justin Long

Analyst

Thanks, and good morning.

Rusty Rush

Analyst

Good morning, Justin.

Justin Long

Analyst

Good morning, Rusty. So, I guess to start with the parts and service business. You’ve talked about the divergence in the trends between national accounts and the smaller customers. I’m curious how those two buckets performed in the fourth quarter and just your general level of confidence on a net basis that the parts and service business is bottomed.

Rusty Rush

Analyst

Well, I’m pretty confident like I said in my notes, we expect to remain at least as good as where we are. I didn’t want to push up. I think there’s room for growth of parts and service in 2024. As I said, if it works, we would just be pacing along where we were in the second half of the year in 2023. When you look at, if you take – as I was loved it, it was taken into parts and pieces, right? At the end of the day, you look at the small accounts, right? We talked about this before, well, that’s for 6 months, last couple of calls. The fact that for the year they were down almost 12%. Now, quarter-wise, I don’t have that in front of me, but I know it started only off about 8% to 6% – it was 7% to 8% in Q1 and ramped up throughout the year. So I’ve got to believe that Q4 was probably down somewhere the 13% or 14% range. And when we call those are unassigned accounts. But what you don’t realize that sometimes those accounts still make up 32% of our business. So you look at what we did, and you talk about being down like that, really continuing to decline over the year, you got to feel good about where you’re at. Like I’ve said before, maybe our margins where I hear softer, because some of the shift, what were the business we are doing over the more national accounts, which obviously, demand a better pricing along with this, whether national accounts, right? So we were able to make up that’s 32% [a third] [ph] of our business was down, probably like I said, I don’t have that in fourth quarter, right, in…

Justin Long

Analyst

That’s helpful. And the national accounts do you have a number on how much they were up for the full year just to compare that to what you’re seeing with the unassigned accounts?

Rusty Rush

Analyst

Yeah, they were up in the high-teens around 20, somewhere between 18 and 20. Again, I don’t have the total number, which the stores were talking about. But they were up somewhere in that and I can really break it into so many different segments, too. Because we still got a lot of mid-sized customers, too. National accounts, well, the largest growing thing we have going on. We still have a lot of mid-sized customers. We forget about them, they’re a piece of it also. So you’ve got roughly, what 32% in the small and you’ve got about 28%, we’ve got national accounts, okay, of our business. So the other 40% is really that middle bucket, which is the largest bucket we touch, right? So that diversity of customers is really what’s allowed us to navigate what has been a rough, rough time for a lot of our customer bases. And that focus on vocational, right? When I talk about refuse being up, and I talk about oil and gas being up, and our wholesale business still being up, and municipal being up, all these other areas are up. Okay. And regardless of whether their national accounts or mid-level accounts, we break it into a lot of different buckets. But those are the areas that have allowed us to overcome with 32% of your customers or up 12% and still post on a positive year.

Justin Long

Analyst

Got it. And I was wondering, too, if you could share anything on expectations for the first quarter, maybe truck sales, parts and service, and Steve, I know typically you see an uptick in G&A? So maybe some thoughts there as well.

Rusty Rush

Analyst

Yeah. Well, first quarter is always G&A goes up. We didn’t put it in the releases here. We put it for the last 25 years, but nothing’s changed, right? All the equity comp and taxes and all that ramp back up and get expensed out in the first quarter. And that is natural for our business. You can go back and model it every year. So we definitely expect that from a truck sales perspective. We are going to start declining. Okay. There’s no question. Everyone knows we’ve known it for a couple of years, the 2024 was going to be a little bit soft. And no one expected 2023 to be as big as it was with all the demand, the pent-up demand. But the key thing in the truck sales side is, this is nothing that we didn’t expect, but we’re not expecting ACT as it down about 22%. And I’m going to agree with that. I don’t expect it to be down 22% in Q1, but I do expect it to be softer. And we expect to do better, by the way, given the diversity our customer base, right? I can tell you that the over-the-road business is going to be down more like 30%-plus for the whole year, I believe. But the key thing is we’ve got 2025 and 2026 coming, with EPA regulations of January 1 of 2027. There will be, I’m guessing as we get to the back half of this year, folks are going to wake up and realize that they are probably going to pre-buy at the 2025 and 2026 given, not just a new technology, but I mean, I won’t get into pricing, what the engines are going to cost and go up by January 1 of 2027 with all the…

Justin Long

Analyst

Got it. And last one for me, Rusty, you’ve talked about earnings expectations and free cash flow expectations and the trough in 2024. Any change to your outlook there?

Rusty Rush

Analyst

None whatsoever. I don’t take back anything I’ve said in the last couple of years. Okay. And as usual, we’re focused on, I’d like to over deliver, how about that?

Justin Long

Analyst

I like it. I’ll leave it there. Thanks, Rusty. Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Hey, Rusty. How are you? Good morning.

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Well, good morning, Mr. Obin.

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Are you calling the bottom of the cycle, because that’s what you’re – and I was – and have you called – I don’t think you’ve called the bottom of the cycle before, it seems that you’re basically saying cycle will bottom sometime around the summer?

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Yeah, I think so. I think you’re going to have a little carryover. When it comes – we’re talking about truck sales, I’m not talking about aftermarket business. Aftermarket business is totally different. But when it comes to Class 8 truck sales, I think that the summer is going to be a little more difficult than what we’ve experienced. There is some carryover to Q1 from finishing up the year. Remember, we’re at the end of the train. We don’t manufacture them. We deliver them. A lot of times trucks take bodies and things like that and it could be up to 60 to 90 days for those trucks to get delivered to our customer base, especially on the vocational side. So, yes, I would tell you that the little trough for us in Class 8 deliveries will probably be sometime this summer. But again, like I said, I do expect the freight market cannot continue. I don’t believe to be as rough as it’s been in the last couple of years. So, I would expect that to pick up. And along with what the EPA emission laws of January 1 of 2027, I do firmly believe will be a pre-buy. With that question, most people expect 2026 to be the biggest year in history, given decent economic conditions overall in the country, right? So, yeah, I mean, I would tell you that truck sales will be softer in a second on the summer in the Q2 and Q3, than what we have seen. But again, we believe, I’d say 22%, I think the majority of it will be in the summer, yes. But, I expect to start bouncing back by the end of the year.

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Excellent. Can you just remind us when is used pricing bottoming?

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Well, I wish, Andrew, if I could tell you that, you might even give me a raise, okay? Which I would gladly take. But anyway…

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

I think they’re fine as it is.

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

I would agree with that. I’m probably overplayed. Did I say that? Okay.

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Yeah, don’t say that.

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

No, Andrew, I’ll tell you, I will say this, use the decline in used truck pricing has continued. Well, it is not as dramatic, it is what it was a year-and-a-half ago, it is still declining more than normal. I think our average used truck price was like $53,000. And when you look at average and if you go back to 2019, or was it go back in the high-40s or something like that 47%, 48%. So you got to believe with the inflationary of what trucks cost now that spread has gotten, it is not only so far it could go but the problem is that pricing is one thing, demand is the other, right? And when you’ve got spot markets which are the main driver of used truck values in such rough shape and down so much, it’s still, I think it’ll happen quick when it happens you watch. I can’t tell you even though, because that means I guess they don’t get my raise, but exactly when, but I would tell you I got to believe sometime before the years out, but I don’t look forward to the next. It’ll continue to decline at a faster rate, but not as fast as it was declining. There’s still trucks being put on the market, I’ve heard of a couple of batches this week in big numbers, people are trying to unload, which puts pressure on it, puts pressure on the market. But the most important thing is to create demand, which means you got to get the spot market back. You’ve got to have some of these others, this over-the-road business spot market back to really stabilize it and to make these truck values go up. Again, it’s still decelerating faster than what I would say normal percentages are, right?

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Just a question, in terms of macro, and I always, I love asking this question just because you have great systems, can you just take us around the country and just by region, how is the economy holding up relative to your expectations maybe 6 weeks ago? And I know that it’s only 6 weeks, but you do have some of the best systems of anybody I cover. Just maybe you can take us around the country and tell us what’s Rusty Rush’s 30,000-foot view of the U.S. economy?

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Well, obviously the biggest concentration we have would be in Texas, right? And Texas is doing just fine. Okay, our Texas stores are still – the state’s still growing. Ohio is growing state in the nation and from both population and a business, perspective for businesses still coming in here. Florida is doing great. We’re getting through, I would tell you, a little softer maybe lately in Ohio, I think. But, I think, Illinois is decent and doing well. We’ve got West California is still in good shape. I worry about California with the new 2024 CARB laws that came in it. By the time we get to the back half of the year, that they may be suffering on the truck sales side, right now, they’re doing fairly well. But we make sure to have some inventory and things like that to carry over into the markets out there. So Oklahoma is still good, going strong. Arizona is decent. So pretty decent across the board. Like I said, a little softness in the state or so. And in Ohio, for whatever reason, I’ve noticed that a little softer up there recently, but I don’t expect that to hold up. I expect that to come back. So I hope it gives you some, I mean – go ahead – not just to see geographic markets, but other markets, breaking it out in the good market, construction is better. That’s what we hope will help keep the order book [ph] better with the growth and on the hits that we’re seeing over-the-road business both for the large customer and for the small person which you know it pretty much out right now out of our mix. But refuse is really going strong. Construction is doing extremely well. Municipal business is holding in strong, almost moderate growth rates, as I said earlier, and we expect that to continue. Like I said, the hardest thing we’ve got going is the small customer, right? That’s why when the small customer does come back in the overall business, we’re going to be in really good shape, because we’re having overcome that one-third of our business being off double-digits So, that will bring back and I expect vocational to continue to be strong given the government monies that are out there, that are being spent right now. So, look 2024 is not going to be what 2023 was. But at the same time, it’s going to be – I’ll stick to my guns as I was asked earlier by Justin about what I’ve said in the past is to we’ll still execute – the truck market, I can’t make the truck market, right? [But I’m sure] [ph] to take share and grow in the aftermarket and that’s the goal of the organization that’s the most profit business we do.

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

So if I were to summarize it, truck market is bottoming, economy is solid, Rush Enterprises is executing. Is that a fair summary?

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

That’s what we like to think. I guess the proof of it’s been the numbers. But, I think, we’ve had even going back to COVID year, right, in 2020 and what we did in 2021, what we did in 2022, what we did in 2023, we’re going to execute really well. I believe inside of what the 2024 market with a 20%-plus Class 8 decline, maybe not much. So maybe we’re better than that. I don’t want to guarantee anything, but I’d like to see us only behalf of that. But I can’t guarantee that, because I’ve still can build you something, it’s still a moving target, right? We’re back to normal as times. We get out of this allocation world we lived in. And so, everybody’s got to sharpen up their tools and go to work, and get out there and take some shares. These are a little more competitive environment. But, we’ve always been able to do that.

Andrew Obin

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

My view, guys, it’s a high quality organization. Thanks a lot.

Rusty Rush

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thank you, Andrew. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I’m showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Rusty, for closing remarks.

Rusty Rush

Analyst

Yes, I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning and we will see you in mid-April. And during [ph] your loved ones, have a happy Valentine’s Day. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.