W. Rush
Analyst · Wolfe Research
Good question, right, because I believe that -- well, not as robust as, say, what we saw in February, which was what was that, 46,000 or something like seventh or eighth best month ever that's happened. I think that was a little overstated driven by one OEM. I do believe there's strength in the order intake. And I do believe as long as we're going to keep bringing up this overseas stuff. As long as that doesn't interfere, I believe there's going to be sustainability to continued solid order intake. Now is that 30,000 a month or something right now? I consider that a pretty good month myself. So I don't know -- from our perspective, I can only speak about from -- I can speak for more than that, but I know that what our order intake is and it continues to remain solid with a backlog, right? You don't just wake up one morning and somebody orders a truck from you. There's a process you go through, right, from a quoting and a competitive drop back. And people are still adjusting to all the tariffs, the OEMs, the customers, ourselves that will come part of everyday life, at least we've got -- at least we know what they are. Now our manufacturers understand from their own personal perspective what they are. And so I believe we're going to see continued -- I can't sit here and tell you it's going to stay over 35,000 a month as I said the other. But if it continues at 25,000 to 30,000, we didn't have a month like that for like 7 in a row, and we continue that. So we started from a low base as far as backlog. But I still believe there's going to be continued strength, maybe not as strong as a couple of the months we've seen, but continued order strength. And I think once we continue to get more clarity around emissions and customers' businesses, look, we didn't deliver many trucks the last 3 quarters, right? So people -- I know some customers have got off a trade cycle last year, right, that did not buy as much, right? It was last year, the U.S. was 216,000 or something like that. Well, that's under by 20-some-odd thousand what replacement is, and it's continued to be under replacement into Q1. And so even without all the outside activity, people have to get back to replacing trucks. It's funny that you think about it. Probably I know people thought, am I even going to be in business because that 3-year freight recession. All of a sudden, you wake up, you're getting more optimistic because you think you're going to get better rates, they're not going backwards. They've trough, they're coming back up. You see the spot environment. You go, I am going to still be in business. I do need to buy trucks, right? I can't be running old trucks all the time with my maintenance charts through the roof. So I believe there's some natural sustainability to it and you add in the emissions and other stuff that's coming forward on January 1. And I just believe it's going to continue to be good. I don't know -- I don't think there's going to be this huge prebuy, as I said earlier. But you could consider a prebuy based upon what the first quarter was, how bad the first quarter retail was and how, well really Q4 -- how bad Q4 was, right? So you have to get somewhat back in line. And the good part is I don't think it's going to just be crazy, right? I think it's going to be solid continued order growth because people's business is -- customers' businesses are getting better. And then the other outside influence of the emissions, which, like I said, we'll hopefully know more, but we know whatever it is, it's coming. So I mean, I hope that helps answer the question. But I feel good about it. And I've said that 100 times, I think, already. I'm not -- and I think it's sustainable for a while myself.