Eido Gal
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is open
Hi, everyone. Thanks for joining our second public earnings call. I just want to start the call by addressing some recurring questions we've been receiving and then dive into some Q3 accomplishments we're very proud of. So the main two themes I want to discuss are number one what we consider to be the normalized growth algorithm for Riskified. This is something that's come up a few times and I want to break it down into a very simple and understandable way, okay, and here I'll also mention two transitory impacts on that growth algorithm. Number two, I want to share where we see our biggest opportunities both on the go-to-market side and on the product side, okay, not just where we see the opportunity, but also how we plan to go after that opportunity and how you should expect that to be reflected on our P&L, okay. So starting with a growth algorithm, the simple way to think about it is that we are positively lever to e-commerce growth and we typically grow as our merchants grow. Now that growth shifts around depending on our merchant mix, but industry reports generally project e-commerce growth of 10% to 15%. When we think about new business and that could be net new logos expansion and cross-sell, we believe this can add up to an additional 15% on an annual basis. Because the timing of when we closed large new deals, which can be highly variable that additional 15% of new business can fluctuate in either direction, depending on when in the year deals go live. And finally, our take rates and merchant composition can also impact our growth. And that's it, that's a simplified way to think of Riskified’s growth algorithm. And we mentioned medium to a long term. So, what does that actually mean? From our perspective this is the algorithm for a multi-year time arise. We have a very large TAM, best-in-class core product, growing product portfolio that is gaining traction with clients and increasingly global go-to-market. Now in the short term, there are two transitory headwinds impacting our growth, and I'd like to discuss them. The first is PSD2. This is a payment security regulation in the EU that is resetting some of our GMV in that region. So far, we are experiencing a drop in volumes in line with our predictive model models and the impact of these reduced volumes is built into our overall guidance. The second transitory headwind relates to more muted eCommerce trends and global supply chain issues. Following the reopening of the economy in return to more traditional spending patterns, we see more modest eCommerce growth combined with fairly ubiquitous supply chain issues affecting online merchants. We anticipate that PSD2 and the more muted eCommerce growth trends will affect our short-term growth most prevalently through the first half of next year, after which we expect to start scaling towards our longer-term growth algorithm. Second main topic I want to discuss is go-to-market and product opportunity. Let's start with go-to-market. When you think about the GMV we process this quarter $20.9 billion, we're very proud of it. It's a great scaled number. Having said that, it's still tiny relative to the opportunity we have in front of us. And that opportunity is broadly the e-commerce market on a global basis. When I think about our revenue distribution, approximately 70% comes from merchants domiciled in the U.S. There is significant market opportunity for us to expand outside the U.S. And we plan on accelerating our global go-to-market hiring to make sure we covered the entire market. We have a unique opportunity over the next few years as the world's largest e-commerce companies migrate away from legacy solutions to new modern platforms like Riskified. Most of the growth in our current investment spend is going towards expanding our direct enterprise salesforce globally. While it can take some time to ramp a team and onboard meaningful clients in new geographies, we believe this is ultimately a very efficient model because there is a natural limit to the number of accounts per region after an initial ramp hiring does not need to continue to increase, while the full GMV opportunity is unlocked. So, what remains are very large deal sizes, low turn rates and strong baseline growth making for a very efficient model. For example, in 2017, we spent approximately $8 million in sales and marketing, which we attribute to the onboarding of our 2018 client cohort. That cohort generated $40 million in billings over the last four fiscal quarters. And while not all cohorts are created equal, we do believe this illustrates the in our model. Moving on the product side, we have an amazing and growing portfolio of brands on our platform. They all face similar challenges in using our data. In machine learning capabilities we are attempting to solve complex problems for them. The value of using Riskified manifest as a reduction in cost, an increase in approval rates and a better end consumer experience. We believe that the more value we can provide across each of these dimensions, the better the long-term outcome for Riskified becomes. When we make internal R&D investment decisions, we mainly look at the potential ROI our product can generate for our merchants. Assuming we can drive meaningful and measurable ROI in the form of additional revenue or potential cost savings, we are confident that Riskified can participate in that value creation through a basis point per transaction pricing or some other billing model. So, the focus is on creating value. Since we tackle complex problems, service the world's largest brands and build deep best-in-class solutions, our products can sometimes have multi-year development horizon. But we only undertake them if we believe that the potential value generation is outsized relative to the investment. So, to recap, we talked about our growth algorithm, 10% to 15% baseline from existing e-commerce customers plus up to another 15% from new and expansion. Go-to-market significant global expansion of direct sales in a long-term efficient model and product investment in long-term initiatives that generates monetizable value. Turning back to Q3, some meaningful accomplishments we are proud of that I want to highlight. Number one, earlier this year, we executed a master agreement with the LVMH Group, making it easier for individual LVMH brands to join our platform, an initial significant one this quarter was Louis Vuitton. Number two, we successfully deployed our policy protect product on an existing chargeback guarantee merchant with more than 10 billion in annual e-commerce volumes. When you think about the implications with merchants, trusting us to decide how to manage their policies such as returns and refunds we think the opportunity is large and largely untapped. Our challenge now is to communicate to the world and enterprise eCommerce CFOs, the incremental value and cost savings we can provide them through new products such as these. Number three, there are more than 25 different countries in which we process more than 100 million of GMV in the last 12 months. And this is based on the location of the end consumer and that’s relative to 20 in the previous quarter. Okay. So this shows the capability and value of our product globally and is a very positive sign as we ramp up our go-to-market teams globally. I’ll now turn it over to Agi to share more details on our financial performance.