Arthur Ajemyan
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thanks, Steve, and thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. We were pleased to report third quarter non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $3.64, consistent with both our expectations and the third quarter of 2024. Of particular note, the third quarter of 2024 benefited from $50 million of LIFO income, compared with $25 million of expense this quarter, which equates to a $1.03 per share unfavorable year-over-year LIFO impact. I'll circle back to LIFO, but first, I'd like to expand on a couple of points that Karla and Steve mentioned: gross profit margin headwinds and market share gains. Trade policy uncertainty has contributed to temporary headwinds to gross profit margins since May of this year for most carbon steel products. Tariffs initially drove rapid price increases for carbon steel products, which slightly elevated carbon steel margins. But without a corresponding increase in demand and plenty of inventory availability in the supply chain, we encountered a very competitive pricing environment, which led to a third quarter margin decline for carbon products from somewhat elevated levels in the first half. In addition, ongoing excess inventories within the aerospace and semiconductor supply chain continue to pressure prices and margins across a range of stainless steel and aluminum products. In sum, gross profit margin associated with less than 10% of our sales has contributed to consolidated margin compression. We expect this pressure to ease as we move through 2026. Finally, the impact of our LIFO accounting method also contributed to margin pressure this quarter. Since LIFO is applied on a pro rata basis, we continue to carry LIFO expense through 2025 that reflected cost increases that occurred earlier this year. This LIFO effect tends to smooth out on an annual basis, though. For the full year 2025, we are still expecting $100 million of LIFO expense. Turning to organic growth. Our teams have done an outstanding job winning new business and growing with existing customers. We tend to outperform industry shipment trends at wider margins during uncertain times. The incremental volume of over 100,000 tons for the third quarter and over 300,000 tons for the year so far in 2025 has allowed us to meaningfully contribute to our overall profitability. On a FIFO basis, our gross profit margin was 29% in the third quarter, up from the third quarter of 2024, and our FIFO pretax income increased 30%. Looking at expenses, our same-store non-GAAP SG&A expenses were up 4.8% for the quarter and 3.6% for the 9-month period compared to the same prior year period, due to inflationary wage adjustments and higher variable warehousing and delivery costs to support our increased tons sold. We also saw higher incentive compensation in the third quarter due to a 30% increase in FIFO profitability. On a per ton basis, our same-store non-GAAP SG&A expenses were slightly lower in both the third quarter and the first 9 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, demonstrating the operating leverage achieved through our smart, profitable growth strategy. I'll now address our balance sheet and cash flow. We generated approximately $262 million in operating cash flow in the 2025 third quarter, which reflected a working capital investment due to seasonally strong net sales. We continue to generate strong cash flow from operations throughout market cycles, that we redeploy to execute our opportunistic capital allocation strategy. We used that cash to fund $81 million in capital expenditures, pay $63 million in dividends and repurchase $61 million of our common shares at an average price of approximately $288 per share. Year-to-date, our repurchases have reduced total shares outstanding by 2%. And we have approximately $964 million available for further repurchases under our $1.5 billion share repurchase plan that we refreshed in October 2024. As previously announced, on August 14, 2025, we borrowed $400 million under a term loan agreement maturing in August 2028, and used the proceeds to retire of senior notes due August 15, 2025. As of September 30, our total debt was $1.4 billion, including $238 million in borrowings on our $1.5 billion revolving credit facility. Our leverage position remains favorable with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 1, providing significant liquidity to continue executing our capital allocation priorities. Looking ahead, we anticipate overall demand in the fourth quarter will remain stable across our diversified end markets subject to ongoing domestic and international trade policy uncertainty. Accordingly, we estimate our tons sold will be up 3.5% to 5.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. And consistent with seasonal trends, down 5% to 7% compared to the third quarter of 2025. We anticipate our average selling price per ton sold for the fourth quarter of 2025 will stay relatively flat compared to the third quarter. As a result, we anticipate flat to slightly improved FIFO gross profit margin in the fourth quarter. Based on these expectations and consistent with typical sequential seasonality where we experience approximately 20% to 25% decline in earnings per share in the fourth quarter, we anticipate Q4 non-GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $2.65 to $2.85, inclusive of quarterly LIFO expense of $25 million or $0.35 per diluted share. This concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you again for your time and participation. We'll now open the call for your questions. Operator?