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Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 5, 2026

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Regal Rexnord Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Rob Barry, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Robert Barry

Analyst

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Regal Rexnord's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Louis Pinkham, our Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Rehard, our Chief Financial Officer. I would like to remind you that during today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the regalrexnord.com website. Also on the slide, we state that we are presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful to our investors, and we have included reconciliations between the non-GAAP financial information and the GAAP equivalent in the press release and in these presentation materials. Turning to Slide 3, let me briefly review the agenda for today's call. Louis will lead off with opening comments and overview of our fourth quarter and full year performance and the discussion of our recent data center wins. Rob Rehard will then present our fourth quarter financial results in more detail and introduce our 2026 guidance. We'll then move to Q&A, after which, Louis will have some closing remarks. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Louis.

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter results and to get an update on our business. We appreciate your continued interest in Regal Rexnord. Before we get into the quarter, I want to provide you with an update on the CEO search. The Board Search Committee has been working diligently and our process is progressing as expected. We will update you as new information becomes available. Now on to our results. Our team delivered solid fourth quarter performance, ending the year on a high note. Fourth quarter aligned with our expectations on adjusted earnings per share. We saw tremendous order strength and a backlog exiting 2025 up 50% versus prior year giving us extremely positive momentum as we begin 2026. While our Data Center business is clearly performing exceptionally well, we also saw healthy orders in other parts of our business, especially Discrete Automation and Aerospace and Defense. Before continuing, I want to take a moment to thank our 30,000 Regal Rexnord associates for their hard work and disciplined execution, in particular, driving our new product pipelines, our cross-sell initiatives and building our commercial funnels to drive stronger and more profitable growth. Now let me provide some specifics on our fourth quarter performance, starting with orders. Orders in the quarter on a daily basis were up 53.8% versus prior year and book-to-bill was 1.48. In the quarter, we booked orders worth approximately $735 million for our new e-Pod solution, which comprises our proven power management content including switchgear, automatic transfer switches and power distribution units. You may remember, we discussed e-Pods on our third quarter call when we mentioned an opportunity funnel worth over $400 million and $1 billion funnel for our Data Center business more broadly. In Q4, we also built…

Robert Rehard

Analyst

Thanks, Louis, and good morning, everyone. Now let's review our operating performance by segment. Starting with Automation and Motion Control, or AMC. Sales in the fourth quarter were up 15.2% versus the prior year period on an organic basis, which was ahead of our expectations. The performance reflects broad-based growth but with particular strength in data center, in Aerospace and Defense and in Discrete Automation. We would attribute the strength to underlying end market momentum in these secular markets as well as to our outgrowth initiatives, including cross-sell activities, which continue to gain traction. I would also point out that the medical market was flat after 4 quarters of destocking-related declines. This is another secular market where we are extremely well positioned with high-margin, technology-rich products and are very happy to see this market appearing poised to improve. We continued to face headwinds in the quarter related to rare earth magnet availability, but these were in line with our expectations and our plans to secure alternative sources of supply are on track. Turning to margins. AMC's adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 20.5%, which was below our expectations and down roughly 1 point versus the prior year. While we were pleased to see the team overexecute on its backlog during the fourth quarter, some of the incremental volume, which was weighted to OEM versus distribution sales, created mix headwinds. Orders in AMC in the fourth quarter were up 190%, primarily reflecting the large e-Pod orders, Louis discussed earlier. Excluding the e-Pods orders, AMC's orders were up 19.2% versus the prior year on a daily basis, primarily reflecting the strength in Data Center, Aerospace & Defense and Discrete Automation. Notably, orders in Discrete Automation were up just over 9% in the quarter and are up about 6% on a rolling…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Mike Halloran from Baird.

Michael Halloran

Analyst

So can we start on the data center side of things and the e-Pods wins? Maybe frame it up in a couple of ways. One, how do you think about the margin profile of this type of business? Is it comparative to the segment level as well? And then secondarily, could you just walk through what that opportunity looks like and frame it from here? You're talking about north of $1 billion last quarter. This is a $735 million transaction. It gets you pretty darn close to that. So what does this look like? What does this run rate look like from your perspectives? And how to think about the opportunity set after we just got such a great order number?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. I'll start with the second question first. We're thrilled with the $735 million order, and we talked about a $400 million funnel in the last quarter call and so clearly, we outperformed here. We want to build on that, and we believe we have the capability to do that. And hence, part of the reason why we started expanding capacity and announced our capacity expansion in the last quarterly call. So we feel good about the offering here in our future potential and that it will grow from here. Now specific to margins and specific to these projects, these orders, we would expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be in the 20%-plus range. Our content is a little less than 50% of the bill of material, and we would expect our normal gross margins there. And then we are being compensated a fair margin for the product that's being sourced and then assembled and sold as the e-Pods. So again, expect adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the 20%-plus range, but then expect also that in time as we drive productivity and supply chain actions that we would expect to ramp that program margins as well. Hopefully, that helps.

Michael Halloran

Analyst

Yes. No, it did, certainly. And then if you ignore the data center side of things and we think back to where we were on the third quarter. Within the Industrial businesses as a whole, do you think you're seeing the right trend and trajectory to support a recovery? I know Rob's commentary said PMI 1 quarter -- 1 month doesn't make a trend, and it's not embedded in guidance necessarily any sort of improvement from here, but I'm curious if you're seeing the right signs in what you would point to in your business to support that?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

It's mixed, honestly, Mike. We ended last quarter and our OEMs started accelerating, distribution slowed down. We didn't see much change of that in January, although we feel good about our order positions of January and our ability to make our guide for the year, but we didn't see a change of that. We are optimistic about the strength of the ISM coming out of January. But we'd like to see a couple more months of that strong together and then a little bit more strength in the distribution channel as well before we say we think we're on a path to strong recovery. But based on our measured approach to our guide, we feel really good.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Julian Michael -- sorry Mitchell from Barclays.

Julian Mitchell

Analyst

Maybe my question -- you've given very good color on the top line. Maybe my first question would be around the margin outlook. Because I guess the margins were sort of down or flat to down in AMC and IPS in the fourth quarter. It looks like the first quarter is similar, year-on-year decline with solid revenue. Just trying to understand within IPS and AMC how we should think about the margin improvement trajectory through the year? And kind of tied to that, what are you expecting or assuming on price cost, just given what's been happening with metals prices, chip prices and so forth? Just trying to understand what kind of operating leverage step-up we might get later in the year? That would be helpful, please.

Robert Rehard

Analyst

Yes, Julian, thanks for the question. Let me start with a little bit. I think AMC is more of the story here than IPS and that IPS, we still see some strong margins moving forward and feel really good about where we're going there. I think AMC is one -- let me spend a minute here. Fourth quarter product and channel mix certainly were the main factors. For example, we saw some slowdown in distributor sales into the year-end as customers -- we saw them as managing the balance sheet. So that certainly played in. And we're seeing just stronger project growth. So for example, food and beverage, especially in Europe within our conveying division is one where we're continuing to see more volume that has a little bit lower margin profile. The bottom line is until we lap the mix impact from the medical and discrete automation side of the business, which is largely tied to rare earth magnet availability, we're going to continue to see a bit of pressure on our AMC margins. Now as you go into the first quarter of '26 and move to the back -- into the back half, the first half of the year, and especially in the first quarter, we do expect to see continued pressure related to rare earth magnets, especially in AMC, and that is, again, going to impact our medical side, in particular as well as some Defense and Discrete Automation. So that will continue. However, as we move to the back half of the year, we do see that improving. And overall, for the year, we see that at the midpoint, AMC margins should improve by about 40 basis points. Again, we are not embedding that any improvement in our mix at this time because we are using…

Julian Mitchell

Analyst

That's very helpful. And then just my follow-up. You mentioned sort of costs of growth and fully understand that approach, and you've laid out very clearly on the P&L margins. Maybe on the free cash flow side, I think you'd alluded a couple of times late last year to a $900 million-ish free cash number for this year. I think the formal guide is $650 million. So just trying to understand the delta there because it looks like the revenue and EBITDA outlook is pretty similar maybe to what you thought a couple of months ago. So just maybe flesh out that delta in the free cash flow assumption today versus maybe what you were thinking a couple of months ago?

Robert Rehard

Analyst

Yes. I think it's a great question, and let me draw it out for you. It really comes down to 2 main things. One is the investment that we're making that you just talked about in -- especially for this data center business. We expect about $50 million to $100 million of investment there as we move through the year. That's embedded in our current cash flow projection. The other is we really -- at the time we set that the forecast or the close to $900 million expectation, quite a bit has changed in terms of the current supply chain landscape primarily due to tariffs and rare earth and all these things, the uncertainties that we're dealing with on a daily basis. We are taking a more measured approach to setting guidance for 2026, and therefore, we have created really a guide that we think we can absolutely hit without a lot of additional working capital benefit. So we reduced our working capital impact that was in the prior forecast by roughly half. And that's the other side of what took down the guide from the prior $900 million to the $650 million. Again, it would be closer to $750 million-or-so, if it wasn't for the working capital, the investment we're making for data centers. So hopefully, that helps. It really is just those 2 things, and it's all around working capital.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Hammond

Analyst

Yes. So just back on this e-Pod. It looks like you're going to ship all of this $735 million in '27. Is that correct? And then just on Slide 7, maybe just level set us on individually or collectively, how you think what your percentage of mix of business is kind of in the secular growth bucket?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes. So Jeff, we do not have a firm schedule at this time. The expectation is that we would start shipping in beginning of 2027. We'll probably hang over a little bit into '28. There's also a possibility it could pull a little bit into '26 as well. So as we get more firm path, we would expect those orders would ship over a 15- to 18-month period in total. Specific to Slide 7, we talked about 40% to 50% of the markets that we serve are secular markets. Now with this data center opportunity and our acceleration of growth, that's just expanding. And so this is why we're putting so much investment in these specific markets is with new products and solutions and commercial initiatives, and we feel that this is going to help accelerate our growth for the future.

Jeffrey Hammond

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then just on this rare earth dynamic. It sounds like -- I just want to understand how buttoned up it is in terms of kind of coming to resolution. I know it's a headwind, maybe 1Q into 2Q, but maybe just talk through resolution? And then ultimately, how much you can get back from the headwind you had in '25?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes. Really, everything is proceeding as we talked about coming out of our third quarter call, Jeff. We remain on track to mitigate the majority of the exposure by end of '26 with a combination of alternate sourcing, so sourcing outside of China, shift to HRE-free alternatives that don't require China approval for export as well as permissible exports. So that would be magnets that we can ship as well as subassemblies that we can ship out of China. Right now, we're absolutely, from a supply chain perspective, on path. What we're working with, though, and it's especially in the defense area, as you can imagine, any time you make any kind of change in the components of the bill of material, you have to go through a validation process. And so we're working with a number of our OEM partners to get through that testing. And I would say it's going pretty much as expected, a little faster in some customers, a little bit slower in others. So that's what we're working through. I feel the teams are all over it. They're managing it well. And we should be -- well, we are improving as we -- every quarter getting more product and supply and the ability to ship more. We do not feel that we have lost any material levels of share here. If anything, we feel like our supply chain has been very solid. But again, you got to think about the markets that we're applying these products to. The medical market and defense markets, in particular, where the validation process for our products are pretty onerous. And so once you're embedded in the platform, you stay on the platform. And so the teams are doing a nice job, and we feel like most of this will recover by the end of the year, for sure.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Kyle Mendez, [ Randy ] from Citigroup.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

This is [ Randy ] on for Kyle. Just starting with automation, I mean, the strength in orders again in this quarter was good to see. I was just hoping you guys could give us some color on the underlying demand trends underpinning those orders and maybe bifurcating between some of your new products and the robotics opportunity between some of the more traditional automation markets and how to frame up the shippable backlog for 2026 in automation would be helpful.

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes. So thanks for the question, [ Randy ]. Our orders were up roughly 9% in the quarter on automation. Our 12-month rolling is up about 6%. We talked about the Kollmorgen Essentials product launch in the quarter. We feel really good about that gaining momentum and acceleration. But the reality is we only saw about $1 million of orders in the quarter from that. And so it wasn't a big part of the 9% up. We continue to gain traction with humanoid OEMs and selling our subassembled [ axis ] solutions. And so from of our expectation is double-digit growth in robotics. We've seen that for the last few years, and we expect to see it for the next few years as well. Hopefully, that helps.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just shifting over to PES. I mean it sounds like destocking was a little bit more than you expected in the fourth quarter. So just curious as to how that informs your outlook for resi HVAC in particular in 2026? And what is your confidence level and some of that pressure starting to alleviate in the second half of the year?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes. So our outlook really doesn't change, even though we saw more pressure in fourth quarter than we thought. We are expecting resi HVAC to be down high single digits for 2026. The compare in Q1 is a tough compare for us. So the biggest part of that down is coming in first half, with some rebounding in the second half. At some point, this business -- when you think about the market, it was down significantly in 2025. And so when you ask me the question of your confidence in the second half, the confidence comes from the compare. It doesn't come from our ability to forecast this market effectively. And so hopefully, that's a helpful perspective.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Tomo Sano from JPMorgan.

Tomohiko Sano

Analyst

Regarding robotics actuations and $200 million-plus pipeline, could you share the latest developments and your expectations for orders in 2026 and 2027, please?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes. No, we're really excited about our pipeline. We're excited about the new products we're launching, Tomo. When we talked about the Kollmorgen Essentials that moves us into a much larger TAM market. But right now, we're not suggesting anything different than what we've said in the past, which is low double-digit growth. There's also lots of potential in humanoids, and that's gaining traction. But it's a little early for us to say it's going to accelerate. And so although we were really pleased with the order rates we saw in 2025, we feel we're nicely and well positioned with a number of OEMs in North America, but we're not going to provide any further guidance than low double digits for our automation business right now.

Tomohiko Sano

Analyst

That's a helpful. And just a follow up on your net leverage target for 2026. And how are you thinking about the capital allocation priorities, please?

Robert Rehard

Analyst

Yes. The net leverage target for 2026, as the guidance would suggest is about 2.7x by the end of the year. It means that by mid part of the year, we should be right around 3x. And then we're starting to year about 3.1 coming out of last year. From a capital allocation standpoint, we would certainly continue to prioritize debt pay down as we move through the year. Of course, we have other capital priorities as well as we've talked about earlier today in some of those investments that we're making in inventory and the like. So we expect to continue to do that and invest in great CapEx projects with very quick paybacks. But overall, that's the way we're thinking about it, and we'll continue down that path until we get to kind of our communicated range that we talked about, our target is less than 2.5x, until we start doing something that might include some other options on capital allocation.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe

Analyst

Covered a lot of ground. So going back to the e-Pod, just want to -- just tie that one up. So I think you said 20% EBITDA margin sort of like as what you expect. I'm guessing gross margin would be sort of like closer to the [ 30% ] there. But is that sort of like we expect to realize on an average basis or where you expect to be on a -- kind of as you ramp up and go through the learning curve because, obviously, this is a fairly new business for you guys. So I wouldn't expect you to be 20% on day 1. Just maybe clarify that. And secondly, do you have raw mats inflation protection here because, obviously, steel prices could move around pretty crazy between now and then. So just wondering what sort of protection you have on raws?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes. So actually, Nigel, we should start out at around 20% and then improve from there. But we don't see this as getting much beyond where our targets are for the AMC business. But our margin potential looks like it's going to start at around 20%. Specific to hedging. We do hedge. We hedge for steel. We hedge -- sorry, we hedge for copper and aluminum. You're right that we -- steel would not be one that is on our program. But we feel good about how we plan to hedge for this project. And we've embedded some risk around the supply chain and inflationary risk in the program. So right now, we feel good about the 20% margin starting point and then growing from there.

Nigel Coe

Analyst

Great. And congratulations on the order, fantastic news. And then maybe just a follow-up on the CEO succession. Obviously, it's now been several months in progress, so just wondering where you are on finding the person to fill those big shoes?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes. No. As I said in my prepared remarks, the Search Committee has been working hard at this, and they're making progress. We're down to a select few and so our expectation is that we should be able to make an announcement in the near future.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

Joseph Ritchie

Analyst

So I'll focus my questions on the ePod offering. So Louis, I'm curious -- I know you referenced multiple data center projects, but I'm curious, are you selling into multiple customers, too, or is this one single customer? And who are your customers? Are you selling directly into just the integrators or the co-locators, hyperscalers? Just any color you can give to that would be great.

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Joe, thanks for the question. Consistent with our prior practices though here, we're not going to provide a lot of detail. And of course, we have confidentiality agreements in place as well. And so we wouldn't be able to provide specifics. But you answered the question correctly. We are selling into co-lo, hyperscaler. It is multiple customers and multiple data center projects in North America.

Joseph Ritchie

Analyst

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then how do I think about like the content per megawatt? So it's a big number, right, the $735 million. How many like -- what content per megawatt are you actually providing with these e-Pods? And then also, I'm just very curious, is this mostly for like low voltage, medium voltage type switchgear and other power equipment that's going inside it?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes, Joe, it's a great question. And unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to answer the first part of the question. I don't have the specifics there. But as we've talked about in the past, Regal has low-voltage and medium voltage switchgear, paralleling switchgear, low-voltage power distribution units and automatic transfer switches. Our part of the bill of material is around 40% to 50%. The other part of the bill of material is going to be things like the container, UPSs. And so that's what makes up the project offering. I'll make sure that I'm better prepared next time, though, on the power question you asked. But hopefully, that gives you a little perspective.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Sticking with the e-Pods still. So $735 million out of a $400 million pipeline a few months ago. Curious if you could provide any color on what that pipeline looks like now? And could we see another quarter of orders like this or even more than one over the next year?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes, Chris, I appreciate the question. And my answer right now is likely not. The pipeline is about $600 million in size for all of our data center business. But when you think about capacity and the fact that we're pretty filled up through '27. I don't expect large orders. But I say that and our sales teams for this business are incentivized to grow this business beyond the projects that we've already won today. And so do expect that this is going to be an area of focus for Regal and that we will talk about data center opportunities for many quarters to come.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Okay. And then I'm not sure if you gave the CapEx guide, I'd like to hear that. And also on the $200 million-plus robotic automation funnel, are you incumbent there? Is that funnel stuff you're already specified on?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

So I'll take the second part of your question and pass the first to Rob. The $200 million funnel, the answer is, yes. We are on some of it. We already specified on some of that funnel. And then others, we're working in building relationships. I just saw a report recently from one of our -- from our team on humanoid, as an example. There's 10 key OEMs that we're targeting in the U.S. 3 of them, we are on their platforms, and we're selling subassemblies. 7 of them, we're still working on getting integrated. And so -- my answer on the $200 million, although, maybe a little more detailed than you needed, was that it's a mix.

Robert Rehard

Analyst

Great. And from a CapEx perspective, we're looking at about $120 million in CapEx in the year, primarily to support growth and then some of the SCOFR activities or supply chain realignments that are currently in the plan to achieve the $40 million of cost synergies. That, as I stated earlier, are not embedded in our current guidance, but gives us a degree of risk mitigation, if you will, as we approach the year.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Okay. And then separately, and you said IPS backlog was up 6% year-over-year?

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Yes, that's correct. Coming into the year, IPS' backlog is up 6% as compared to the same period last year.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Louis Pinkham for closing remarks.

Louis Pinkham

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and thanks to our investors and analysts for joining us today. My closing message today is simple. Our growth strategy is working, and we are gaining momentum. This is apparent in our improving organic sales growth and in our tremendous order and backlog growth. And we see so much more opportunity ahead of us as we continue to execute our growth playbook across our secular market with additional upside to the extent our end markets improve. Encouragingly, we are seeing early positive signs in a number of key markets. In short, I believe we are better positioned than ever before to create increasingly significant value for our stakeholders in 2026 and beyond. Thank you again for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in Regal Rexnord.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.