Rob Rehard
Analyst · Baird. Please proceed
Thanks, Louis, and good morning, everyone. As you can see, Regal had very strong results in Q2. Now, let’s discuss our results by segment and then I’ll walk through our latest guidance, including some high level thoughts on end market outlooks for this year and for 2022. Starting with Power Transmission Solutions or PTS, organic sales in the second quarter were up 33.1% from the prior year on broad-based strength, but with particularly strong performance in the alternative energy and U.S. general industrial markets, and in our conveying business. Pruning actions were approximately 280 basis points of topline headwind in the quarter. Operating margin in the quarter for PTS was 19.4%, up 580 basis points compared to the prior year, a record level for this segment for the second quarter in a row and above our expectations. Orders in PTS for the quarter were up nearly 40% and are tracking up mid-30s in July both on a daily basis. Order strength in the second quarter and in July was broad-based. Turning to Climate Solutions, organic sales in the second quarter were up 43.4% from the prior year, which was slightly above our expectations. The increase was primarily driven by our North America Residential HVAC business, further demand recovery in Europe, and continued strength in the general industrial and commercial refrigeration in markets. Pruning actions were approximately 350 basis points of topline headwind in the quarter. The adjusted operating margin in the quarter for Climate was 18.4%, up 600 basis points versus the prior year period. Strong volumes, favorable mix and continued cost reductions were all margin tailwinds. While our two-way material price formulas continuing to lag material inflation in the quarter, we saw non-contracted price increases help bridge the gap, so that we ended in a neutral price cost position for the quarter. We continue to anticipate that price actions under our two-way material price formulas will catch up during the third quarter. Orders in Climate for the second quarter were up 80% on a daily basis on broad-based strength. Orders in July are pacing up high-teens. For Residential HVAC in particular, orders in the second quarter were up over 60% on a daily basis and while that pace has moderated slightly in July, based on our current backlog and what we’re hearing from our OEM customers, our assessment is that end user demand remains healthy. Our view that the channel is still largely in an understocked position and we anticipate healthy growth rates in our Residential HVAC business for the remainder of this year, despite the tougher back half comps. Note that this is a positive revision versus our prior view. Turning to Commercial Systems, organic sales in the second quarter were up 49.6% from the prior year. Strength in the quarter was broad-based, but was particularly good in the North America general industrial end market, in our pool pump business and in China. Notably, sales in pool pump were up almost 50% in the second quarter benefiting from strong consumer demand, healthy sales of new products that are supporting share gains and some restock activity. We think the outlook for pool remains healthy aided by these same drivers and we now expect healthy growth in this business for the remainder of this year, even as comps toughen. 80/20 pruning was 140-basis-point headwind in the quarter. The adjusted operating margin in the quarter for Commercial Systems was 11.6%, up 560 basis points compared to the prior year. This margin was up primarily due to favorable volume and mix. Our teams have done a great job managing through the ongoing freight and logistics challenges to minimize the impact to the business. Orders in Commercial for the quarter were up nearly 70% on a daily basis, reflecting broad-base strength. For July, orders are tracking up high 20s, also on broad-base strength. In Industrial Systems, organic sales in the second quarter were up 15.2% versus the prior year. The segment saw strength in the data center market and improving demand in the North America general industrial market. Pruning actions during the quarter were approximately 190 basis points of topline headwind. The adjusted operating margin in the quarter for Industrial was 2.3%. While volume, cost reductions and mix were all tailwinds for Industrial in the quarter, the business encountered larger than anticipated disruptions in its Mexico supply chain and also faced COVID-related headwinds in India that resulted in a six-week closure of the facility. We are happy to report that this site is once again fully operational. While these temporary unexpected setbacks may have delayed some of the efficiency gains we expected from transitioning to our new TerraMAX platform, we firmly believe that the structural changes we have put in place at Industrial and are continuing to implement will enable this business to achieve meaningful profit improvement within the next 12 months to 18 months. As we look ahead to the remaining quarters of 2021, we believe Industrial can delever margin progress versus the first half and we would expect performance at a mid single-digit level for the back half of 2021. Orders in Industrial for the quarter were up approximately 45% on a daily basis, with order rates in July tracking in the mid- to high-single digits on broad-based strength. On the following slide, we highlight some key financial metrics for your review. A couple notable highlights. First, our free cash flow of $74 million or 90% of adjusted net income is a strong result that reflects some incremental pressure on working capital given the higher volumes. Even so, we continue to expect cash conversion above 100% for the year. Second, we further delevered the balance sheet and ended the quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 0.7 times. Moving to the outlook, with two quarters behind us and COVID-related impacts significantly diminished, we are in a position to provide annual guidance. We expect 2021 adjusted diluted earnings per share in a range of $8.70 to $9, which would represent growth of 53% year-over-year at the midpoint. This implies revenue growth in the high-teens. At the bottom of this page, we’ve included some additional assumptions that can be used when modeling 2021. Furthermore, and consistent with what we previously communicated, we expect to take actions in 2021 that will result in annualized cost savings of $25 million, of which we achieved roughly $6 million in Q2, and for modeling purposes, I would assume the remainder of roughly $13 million occurs ratably during the year. On the next slide, and as Louis highlighted in his opening remarks, we wanted to provide an update on our 300-in-3 initiative we laid out at our Investor Day in March of last year. The many changes we’ve implemented over the past couple of years have resulted in hitting that goal in less than two years. While improved volume has certainly contributed to hitting these goals this year, if you compare our sales results to 2019 levels, you’ll find growth largely aligned with the assumptions we included in our Investor Day projections. The key drivers of our margin improvement include the decentralization of the business, driving increased accountability and P&L ownership at every level of the organization, a focus on 80/20, utilizing policy deployment to affect strategic initiatives and drive above planned performance. The Regal business system and executing and exceeding our cost out opportunities in the areas of footprint consolidation, product rationalization and best value country sourcing, while we are not planning to update our Investor Day targets at this time, we still have line of sight to continued margin improvement through the cycle. We see this as a great momentum as we move closer to the successful merger with Rexnord PMC. Before turning it back over to Louis, I want to spend a few minutes sharing some details on our end market exposures. We thought this would be helpful as you start to develop estimates for post-2021 growth rates. A few things I think are worth highlighting on this slide. One, roughly half of our sales are into the consumer, general industrial and non-residential construction end markets, which represent approximately 21%, 19% and 12% of our sales, respectively. Second, the other 50% of our sales are made into a diverse array of end markets. Third, while our Residential HVAC and residential pool markets tend to garner outsized attention from the investment community, these markets represent only about 25% of our sales, with residential pool being 4%. We classify these sales mostly in the consumer end market plus modest exposure to residential new construction, consistent with demand for these products being mostly replacement driven. Lastly, as we think about where we are in the cycle for our principal end markets, we expect that roughly 30% have not started to recovery -- recover or only in the earliest stages of recovery and so are unlikely to see a material uptick in demand until 2022. These include our sales into the non-residential end market, hospitality, much of food and beverage, oil and gas and the more capital spending driven parts of general industrial. We also believe our exposures in alternative energy and data center, while posting strong growth in 2020 and 2021 have ample runway to continue growing at very healthy rates in 2022 as well. To be clear, we expect all of our markets to be strong in 2022, but we are highlighting markets we expect to accelerate since they will still be rebounding. For reference, I’ll add that Rexnord PMC business has roughly 15% of its sales into the aerospace end market, plus 6% into non-res and 20% into food and beverage, and so we also see significant opportunities for accelerating end market demand to benefit that business in 2022. Beyond end market tailwinds, as you know, we have spent a lot of time over the last two years making investments and structural changes in the business that will enable more robust outgrowth and we expect to see increasing benefits from these efforts in the coming years including in 2022. And now, I will turn the call back over to Louis.