Earnings Labs

Range Resources Corporation (RRC)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Jul 25, 2023

$43.04

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Range Resources Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Statements made during this conference call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Laith Sando, Vice President, Investor Relations at Range Resources. Please go ahead, sir.

Laith Sando

Management

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Range’s second quarter earnings call. The speakers on today’s call are Dennis Degner, Chief Executive Officer and Mark Scucchi, Chief Financial Officer. Hopefully, you’ve had a chance to review the press release and updated investor presentation that we’ve posted on our website. We may reference certain slides on the call this morning. You will also note that our 10-Q can be found on Range’s website under the Investors tab or you can access it using the SEC’s EDGAR system. We'll be referencing certain non-GAAP measures on today's call. Our press release provides reconciliation to these to the most comparable GAAP figures. We've also posted supplemental tables on our website that include realized pricing details by product, along with calculations of EBITDAX,, cash margins and other non-GAAP measures. With that, let me turn the call over to Dennis.

Dennis Degner

Management

Thanks, Laith and thanks to all of you for joining the call today. As we pass the midpoint of the year and shift our focus on the remainder of 2023, Range's business plan is on track, while we continue to make steady progress on key objectives. I believe this quarter's results reflect the resilience and durability of Range's business. Range's competitive cost structure, low capital intensity, liquids optionality, and thoughtful hedging allowed us to generate healthy full cycle margins despite cyclically low commodity prices. During the second quarter, Range successfully delivered on our operational plan safely and with peer-leading efficiencies. Generated free cash flow, despite low commodity prices, and retired a portion of our debt maturing in 2025. We also published our latest corporate sustainability report last week, showcasing our low emissions intensity and ongoing safety and environmental leadership, all made possible by our dedicated team. As we walk through the results of the quarter, each highlight underpins the durable and repeatable nature of our program that starts with the quality and quantity of Range's inventory along with our talented team. Looking forward, our objectives remain consistent with us keenly focused on areas discussed on prior calls, peer-leading capital efficiency that supports our low breakeven costs, a program that generates free cash flow through the cycles, continue return of capital to shareholders, and prudent capital allocation that balances further debt reduction, opportunistic share repurchases, and the long-term development of our world class asset base. Whether discussing the results during upcoming calls or today, our results and initiatives align and support these strategies. As we look back on the second quarter, all-in capital came in at $175 million, while capital spent for the first half of the year total $326 million, placing us firmly on track versus our stated plans. During…

Mark Scucchi

Management

Thanks, Dennis. The second quarter was successful operationally and financially, with solid execution across the business. Cash flow totaled $187 million, funding capital expenditures and the quarterly dividend while maintaining balance sheet strength and the trajectory to our target capital structure despite what we expect are near cyclical lows in commodity prices. 2023 commodity prices have obviously been softer than last year and are below the level that can sustain industry production levels. Fortunately, Range is equipped with one of the lowest full cycle breakeven costs in the business. The benefit of going through a period of low prices is the visibility into the economic durability of assets across the E&P space. Given the economic resilience of Range's portfolio, our goals and expected plan for 2023 are consistent with last year despite different prices. We'll develop high-quality assets, generate free cash flow, return capital to investors, strengthen our business and enhance our position to participate in continued demand growth through our low-cost, long-life inventory. This is in stark contrast to higher-cost, shorter-life assets where operators are seeking ways to reduce outspend, in many cases, by allowing production to decline. Taking a closer look at Range's second quarter results, Cash flow of $187 million was driven by strong production levels, achieving pre-hedge realizations of $2.47 per Mcfe. This realized unit price is $0.37 above NYMEX Henry Hub, receiving the benefit of Range's diverse sales outlets for natural gas and the pricing uplift from natural gas liquids and condensate. During the second quarter, Range's realized NGL price was $21.51 per barrel or $3.58 on an Mcfe basis. Range's portfolio of transportation capacity and customer contracts supported differentials, such that the total per unit price received by Range remains a strong premium to Henry Hub Natural Gas. In addition, Range's approach to hedging…

Dennis Degner

Management

Thanks, Mark. Before moving to Q&A, I'll reiterate a message we've shared previously. As the world continues to move towards cleaner, more efficient fuels Natural gas and NGLs will be the affordable, reliable and abundant supply that helps power our everyday lives by also helping billions of others improve their standard of living. We believe Appalachia natural gas and natural gas liquids are positioned to meet that future demand. And within Appalachia, Range will be among those leading the way on capital efficiency, emissions intensity and transparency. Range has derisked a large inventory of high-quality wells across our 0.5 million net acreage position in Appalachia, and translated that into a business capable of generating free cash flow through commodity cycles. We are in the best position in the company's history. And I look forward to our next many calls together as we continue to demonstrate our dedication to safe, efficient operations and consistently generating sustainable and competitive returns for our shareholders. With that, we'll open the line for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Bernard Don with Truist. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Bernard Don

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys. Just wanted to talk about the turn in line disclosure versus the percentage of CapEx so far this year. I'm assuming there's something in there about how much capital you may be put towards wells that are ready to be turned to mine or completions, but that aren't captured in your turn-in-line schedule. So just maybe you could address the lower percentage of turn-in-line so far versus the higher CapEx.

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes, thanks for the question. As you look at the first half of the year, we started off with a couple of drilling rigs and then bolted on a third horizontal rig as we started to get toward the back half of Q1. So when you look at Q2 from a drilling activity perspective, it really became our highest drilling activity. And then on the completion side, we kept a base frac crew operating through the balance of the first half of the year, and it will remain with us through all of this year's program, but we picked up the spot frac crew in the last weeks of Q2 as well. And when you think about the completion versus drilling percentages of spend, it starts to clearly change the capital -- that activity cadence starts to change the capital profile at that point. A lot of our turn-in lines from that drilling activity that are getting kicked out are going to then see first sales and production start to come together in Q3, especially more weighted to the back half of the quarter. Were -- I think, approximately one third of our turn-in-lines are in Q3, and then you're going to see the majority of those actually be in the last weeks of the quarter. So that's from an activity cadence standpoint, how it will shake out for the balance of the year. And then once you see Q4, it will be actually a tail off, not too dissimilar to what you saw in Q1 and Q2.

Bernard Don

Analyst

Great. And then the follow-up is kind of on that point. If you do have a very light maybe end of the year, maybe the last 1.5 months or so, program, we're looking at a pretty attractive strip maybe 1Q, 2Q of next year? Is there some discussion going on internally on whether or not you might want to pull some of that capital from '24 to '23 if the commodity environment pass for it?

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes, good question. I think those are questions we always have internally to make sure that we're optimizing not only this year's program, but we're thinking about what's best as we start to look forward as well. we've got a history of demonstrating of being at or below our communicated capital guidance. But one of the reasons why we added some of our capital flexibility this year for some of the inventory that was at $30 million that we communicated as part of our annual plan was to allow for that kind of optionality. Maintenance is really below the 615 level, which is the upper end of our guide. But having that flexibility to be at the upper end of that capital guide allows us to consider what's the proper setup for 2024. What does it look like to maintain activity or a particular rig that maybe you're going to retain for that last month or 1.5 months. So it's all part of optimizing that end of your portion of your program and setting up for 2024. So we'll absolutely have those conversations internally. They'll be necessary in both not only this year but in future years to come..

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs & Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Umang Choudhary

Analyst · Goldman Sachs & Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

My first question was on cost inflation. Any color you can provide on leading-edge material, labor and service costs and the implication of lower cost heading into 2024?

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes. I'm going to somewhat build upon, I think, the response that we've shared at the prior earnings call and I'll start off by saying it's still a little bit early to frame what that will look like for 2024. Encouraging thing is we're clearly seeing some rigs come out of the mix. If you look at where we were at the end of December in 2022 versus where we were total rig count last week. I think we've got around 110 rigs approximately that have come out of the mix. The Haynesville is now down in the 45%, 46% range. Of course, you're seeing Appalachia at a similar level also, with other rigs taking out of other basins that saw activity over the last 24 months during different pricing environments. All of that started to manifest itself into some conversations around rig availability, what that will look like for 2024. We've seen some early signs of relief on areas like tubular goods, where you've seen not only rig activity influence that, but also just the supply catching up with what was the demand in the past and also inputs a part of that supply chain start to normalize. And then, of course, we're starting to see some availability, and I'll just say some relief when it comes to some of this supporting equipment as a part of our day in and day out operations.. As we get ready to go into the bid process this fall, we fully expect to have a lot better way of framing what this could look like for 2024. But I'd say, all in all, we're encouraged by some of the relief that we're seeing -- but we also know I'll say this, there will be certain equipment like maybe the e-fleets on the…

Umang Choudhary

Analyst · Goldman Sachs & Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Got you. That's very comprehensive. My next question was on hedging. You are now 50% hedged for next year at 370 floor. This is very in line with the past commentary of covering fixed costs and capital commitments given your bullish outlook for 2025, how are you thinking about hedging for 2025? Do you plan to hedge more to cover the fixed cost, and the capital commitments are you happy with the low 20% exposure that you have right now?.

Mark Scucchi

Management

I'll start this one off. I think you've touched on the theme, the philosophy behind our hedging program, and that is largely and essentially to cover the fixed costs. and maintain exposure to a strong market. Obviously, with LNG facilities being commissioned over the next year and 2, we expect a significant rerating in the commodity price.. One of the best places to be as a corporation is in a position where you don't have to do something. Having paid off $2.5 billion of debt ranges in a position where hedging is not necessarily something we have to do, certainly not to levels that are extremely high, like the 70, 80-plus percent levels you might have seen 5 and 10 years ago across the industry and it range specifically. So where we sit today, we've got just a tiny bit to do on the balance sheet before we enter our target net debt level. So as you look at the '23 hedge position and approximately 50% of gas, and you look at 2024, we've got just a little bit, as I said, of progress work yet left to do. You also have the construction of the in-service timing into 2024 of the new facilities and that rerating of demand, making its way into the forward curve. So as you look into 2025, it's a modest foundation. We think that, that current position is sufficient to cover fixed costs. So as I started, we're in a position where we don't have to do anything. We like the hedge book where it is. We think that meets our risk management objectives and to turn it around. That means while we are actually encouraged by the way, 2024 is set up, we're 50% hedged, but we're 50% unhedged. And for 2025, we have a good foundation, but we're 80% unhedged, and we'll be responsive to market development between now and then, we'll monitor the cadence of construction in service and demand and what the forward market may offer us. But having said all that, again, we like the book where it stands. It covers our basic philosophical objectives.

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani with ROTH MKM. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Leo Mariani

Analyst · ROTH MKM. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

I was wondering maybe you could just talk a little bit about sort of capital allocation here. Obviously, you decided to buy back some bonds in the open market at a discount, which always seems to be a good use of proceeds. But as a result, we didn't really see anything on the share buyback side. And maybe you could just kind of give us a little color in terms of how you're kind of thinking about using that free cash flow for the balance of the year and how you kind of decide between debt paydown and buybacks?

Mark Scucchi

Management

Sure. Liam, I think where I would start with our waterfall of capital allocation really is all based on the assets. When you're talking about an asset base, it's got 30 years of drilling activity, production 50-plus year type productive horizon, you're trying to make sure that you have a financial foundation of a company that will comfortably navigate through cycles and capitalize on the opportunities that are presented to it. As I said, the best place to be in a corporate perspective is to not have to do something. So where we are today is we've made great progress on the balance sheet, but that does remain a priority. As we've talked about before, funding our key objectives: one, maintenance capital to debt reduction three, shareholder returns, be it the dividend or the share buyback and for the growth when appropriate. So where we sit today, obviously, commodity prices are lower and by definition, cash flow is a little bit lower. As we sit and look at the performance of the various securities and where the prices are and being able to pull in bonds, the use of our free cash flow this year to reduce debt and enhance equity owners value through that path, sees them as fruit. Now having said all of that, one of the keys to our capital allocation plan and our return of capital program is the opportunistic element. The reason it's not purely formulaic is that the market moves, interest rates, obviously, are moving around, commodity prices are moving around. That we want to be able to allocate capital in a nimble and prudent fashion. So debt is certainly the priority but that waterfall and capital allocation, as I said before, is not mutually exclusive. If we were to see a big pullback in the market, for example, recession fears, obviously, are being chattered about what happens to the economy more broadly. If there's a broad-based pullback in the equity markets, Range has $1.1 billion available on our current program, and we believe that the balance sheet strength would certainly give us the opportunity to step in and buy back shares if we were to see any sort of retracement. So for the time being, we're comfortable with that methodology. That approach to debt is the priority, but we clearly will make use of the share repurchase program just as we have for the last two years.

Leo Mariani

Analyst · ROTH MKM. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then just as a quick follow-up. Obviously, Range has sort of been in maintenance mode on production for quite a few years now. Obviously, you guys talked about the upside expected in both gas and NGL markets as we get into '24 and even more so in '25 on gas. What's kind of the latest thinking in terms of that sort of maintenance mode on production? Is that something you think is likely to continue in a '24 and then maybe it's '25 perhaps there can be a slightly different decision on that with just higher LNG exports and potentially MVP coming on in '24. Just any color around that would be appreciated.

Dennis Degner

Management

You bet, Leo. As we think about 2024, I think a good starting point is to always think about maintenance for our program. That's about 60 to 65 wells kind of year in and year out to hold our assets flat in our current infrastructure utilized. But as we start to look forward, I mean, there are several reasons to have a positive outlook. And some of them we've touched on either through Q&A or through prepared remarks today and in prior calls, LNG clearly being one of them, we're still optimistic that MVP reaches a place where it's commissioned. And all of that starts to have a positive outlook. But the other part is inventory exhaustion. And I think as you start to look more and more around not only Appalachia but other basins, you're starting to see that conversation get elevated along with degrading well performance year-over-year. We think that all is positive when you think how it aligns back with Range's long runway of inventory and our ability to potentially grow in the future. But growth is going to really come back to a point of what both the basin fundamentals point to and also the macro. So we'll be patient. We'll look at what the best program is for '24 and beyond. But the way to think about it today is to consider our program to start from a base of maintenance..

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Roger Read with WFS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Roger Read

Analyst · WFS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Roger Wells Fargo. Sorry, I just typed in WFS on the registration page. Thanks for having us on, couple of the questions. I don't want to repeat. So I'm going to come at this a little differently. On your capital efficiencies, you talked about cutting spud to first production to 180 days, obviously, pretty impressive as we think about your outlook for latter part of '24 and '25, which I don't think we have any disagreement with. As you increase activity, what things can you do now? What best practices or learnings have you put in place that are going to allow you to maintain capital efficiency as rig counts go back up as spending goes back up in the space and presumably, you'll want to add production as well.

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes. Roger, I think there's maybe a couple of ways of bifurcating this conversation. And I think one is how we kind of view our efficiencies and our service costs versus overall capital efficiency. And if anything, demonstrates the team's ability to continue to deliver on leading efficiencies, I think our Q2 results have clearly demonstrated that. For the group to be able to basically have a 13% increase in completion, frac seizures per day in the first half of the year versus the full year average of last year, some of the drilling footage accomplishments, all in and around prior producing activity, returning to pad sites with production. It just as an old supervisor once told me "success begets success, and the teams continue to build upon that momentum". So we would expect to see further progress progression in our efficiencies in '24 and '25 as again, we continue to move back to those pad sites. So that's one arrow in the quiver. I think the second one is, as we continue to root out nonproductive time. When you move back to these pad sites, you have the ability to look for ways to more efficiently manage our logistics, whether it's the water recycling program that we have and not only the cost savings measures that, that brings to the table, but also just overall the efficiency enhancements. It really becomes a force multiplier. So we see areas of improvement there as well. But I'll say this. Lastly, our long lateral development always plays a role in this with us now having drilled our longest laterals this past quarter exceeding 20,000 feet. We're excited to see those wells come online here in the quarters ahead and monitor those results. We think those play a significant part. But capital efficiency will now fluctuate as we start to have conversations about is it some low level of growth in the future? What kind of inventory gets added as a part of that. But from a cost per foot basis, we would expect to still be on the leading edge of how that -- how those numbers are manifested and how we basically execute the programs going forward.

Roger Read

Analyst · WFS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Okay. Appreciate that. The other question I had best way for you to answer or best opportunity for you to answer it. We have seen quite a resurgence in -- I mean, I guess you could say some quantity prices in general, but particularly ethane here over the last call it, four to six weeks. I was just -- you gave a fairly positive outlook for what's going on the NGL front. So I was just curious if there's anything you've seen in that to explain some of the strength in the pricing recovery.

Alan Engberg

Analyst · WFS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thanks, Roger. This is Alan Engberg. I manage our liquids marketing business. I'll go to shot give you some background on what's been behind some of the recent strength that we've seen in ethane. I think I would start by saying ethane fundamentals have been pretty tight for a while now. We've mentioned it in prior calls, but the days supply hit 5-year lows last year, and we've been hugging those five-year lows all through this year as well. So when the market is tight like that, there's really not a lot of cushion to manage changes are tightening, let's say, in the supply-demand fundamentals. And really, that's what we've seen in June and so far in July. So the drivers of that list about five different ones. But first one, I'll list actually is the cost driver. So we've got -- someone asked earlier about inflation we had PPIs of reflecting about a 13% increase in pipeline costs come into effect this year. So that effectively raises the floor for ethane recovery for the industry. and that led to probably more ethane rejection. So we had less supply, we believe, during the month of June. At the same time, we had a tremendous amount of heat as we're all aware of. That again led to, let's say, in some of the further out basins, more of an incentive to reject ethane and to sell the gas locally. Added to that, the heat also affects fractionation efficiencies. As you can imagine, ethane is the lightest molecule needs the most cooling. So it's the one that gets affected the most when it comes to fractionation efficiencies in the heat. And there, you lose, call it, 5% to 8% of efficiency. The other thing that has become I guess, more to…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Scialla with Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael Scialla

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Denis gave a lot of detail on OFS costs. I guess based on what you're seeing right now, is it fair to frame it that you would expect to see some savings on rig day rates and ancillary costs, but not really on frac crews? And can you talk about the cost of that spot frac crew that you added versus your contracted rates and maybe how the efficiency compared as well?

Dennis Degner

Management

You bet. Michael. The spot crew that we brought on recently I would say, is more in line with kind of current pricing structures. So it had some advantages that came with it, very efficient. We're really happy with the results that we've seen first pad has been completed, and it was actually in line with what we were seeing with our base frac crew that we'll have for the bulk of the year. So in a lot of ways, I think it's shown the repeatable nature of not only the procedures that the teams put in place but also the efficiencies that -- in a lot of cases, several service providers have also elevated their respective performance through just routine operations, maintenance, etcetera. But pricing for the spot crew was very much in line with what we would expect for I'll just say, current equipment that's been available that we were able to get spot pricing for. That crew will then frac another pad site for us here in the back half of the quarter and then get released and then we'll be back to our base bracket for the remainder of the year..

Michael Scialla

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Okay. So if I heard you right there, you are seeing some improvement in prices even on the completion side as well.

Dennis Degner

Management

There are some small signs of relief. But again, I'll phrase this as small-only because that was a spot crew of utilization versus being able to leverage that pricing into a full year of, we'll call it, day in and day out activity for 12 months. So though it was small, I would say it was difficult to quantifying a bigger picture..

Michael Scialla

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Understood. And you mentioned your new sustainability report. I guess I want to see what needs to happen for you to get to net zero scope on two by 2025. And can you say how much will be through offsets versus actual abatement and maybe any targets beyond the '25 goal that you're thinking about?

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes. As we start to think about the next couple of years, we've got a keen focus on how we can continue to directly reduce our emissions from our operations efficiently, economically, say responsibly, like we've really executed the rest of our programs, whether it's drilling and completing a well producing or reducing our emissions. It's the same culture, same approach regardless of what the topic may be. So we've got still a keen focus on further reductions in that regard. We're looking at ways that we can look at reducing emissions associated with combustion of fuel on our particular operations. As you can imagine, it's small incremental bolt-ons, but it could be as little as switching over to electrified power plants on location for lights and ancillary power versus traditional diesel or gasoline fuel type equipment, coupled with our E fleet, of course, on the fracking side.. Carbon offsets will play a role, and it is something that we communicated for the first time it is sustainability report to start outlining Range's approach. What we don't want to do is really, I will just say, we want to bridge the gap effectively with those carbon offsets with good quality offsets but remain at the same time, keenly focused on how we can directly, economically and efficiently reduce our emissions off pad.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Diamond with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Paul Diamond

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Just a quick one, talking about -- you had mentioned a specific pad and wet acreage that really helped you out with your highest overall efficiency. How should we think about the extrapolation of those techniques and that level of efficiency more to some of the dryer acreage? Should we think about that as 1 for 1 on trend? Or is there some variation there?

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes, thanks for asking that question. I think it's -- at this point, I would say it's not something that we see immediately that we can translate across the entire basin, but we will progress in that direction, meaning staging areas get redefined, trucking routes for hauling water, all of this is, I'll just say, a progression that can occur quarter-over-quarter that translates into those improved efficiencies. Over the course of time, do we see this being the new standard that turns into a repeatable metric, we do. And that's part of us communicating it today. But do we see this being the new standard for 2024. We may not be quite there yet because we also recognize there's diversity and I'll just say ingress and egress across the field and how we're drilling it from a perspective of lateral lengths. There is some variability. As you can tell, our average program for the past several years has been kind of 10,000 to 12,000 feet in average lateral length. But we will have those moments where we'll have 20,000 to 18,000-foot type laterals depending upon where we're developing assets. So we see this as translatable to the dry gas and super-rich areas. It will take some time as we take these, I'll just say, more recent learnings and translate that into future development program execution.

Paul Diamond

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Understood. Just one quick kind of more macro follow-up. You guys talked a bit about seeing just nationwide activity reducing -- with the current strength of the kind of '24 beyond curve, I guess, at what point do you see that activity kind of reverting? Is it a pricing needs to be materially higher? Or is it -- or are you guys expecting more just run rate flattening through '24.

Dennis Degner

Management

I think as you think about '24 today, I mean I think you're going to have to see a little bit more from, let's just say, development of the LNG infrastructure. Again, I'll kind of start off with base for us is the starting point. But as you start to think about '24, the LNG infrastructure that's coming online, all signs point to it being on time, I think, which is clearly encouraging. But to get to the other side of inventory levels that we're going to have at the end of injection season, seeing what kind of winter that we have, we see this being as more of a constructive outlook as you start to get into the bulk of 2024. So that's when I think you start to see us have the flexibility of the program to then assess what level of activity best aligns with both those basin fundamentals and the macro and then setting us up for 2025.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and one moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jacob Roberts with TPH & Co.

Jacob Roberts

Analyst · TPH & Co.

Just curious on the GP&T guide, looking at where Q2 came in and kind of the expected prices, I believe, on Slide 34 in Q3 and Q4, it looks like that guide has the ability to head even lower. So just I'm curious on the assumptions being baked in there.

Mark Scucchi

Management

Yes. This is Mark. I'll lead off on that. I mean you've got six months down and the experience of NGL prices to date and gas prices today, other things that are going into -- in there, are your electricity costs that are behind compression and other things. So as we look at the forward curves for each of the products, the respective processing and transportation costs of those estimated power costs in the latter half of this year and heading into winter, you likely and hopefully see some higher prices as we would expect once we're outside the injection season, and there's a little more understanding of what this winter may look like. So the answer to your question is prices can go either direction. Therefore, the GP&T number can go either direction. So it's just a great feature of that contract by design to be right way risk and give us good exposure to improving prices or insulation when we see lower prices..

Jacob Roberts

Analyst · TPH & Co.

Great. And then my follow-up would be just in terms of the DUC you guys have in the system right now, are those going to be more of a feature in Q3 or in Q4? And then perhaps -- any more details on the cadence activity within the fourth quarter would be helpful.

Dennis Degner

Management

Thanks, Jacob. From a Q3 and Q4 perspective, I know we tried to briefly touch on this a moment ago, but to expand on it, we'll have the 1 spot crew that's going to complete another pad site for us plus our base crew. And then, of course, the turn-in lines are going to quickly follow. So in the back half of Q3, we'll see our bulk of our Q3 turn-in line start to reach first sales. And then you'll see also in the early part of Q4, you'll see some of that turn-in-lines from the Q2 and Q3 activity start to manifest themselves into production in that back half of the year.. Production into Q3, we touched on it briefly, but should be around $30 million to $50 million a day, up from where we were on average for but we should be on average in Q4 2.2 Bcf equivalent per day. So the ramp will be a little more significant, and we like the shape of that curve as you start to see that activity cadence turn into turning lines and sales volumes that more align with where the curve as we see it today is on commodity prices. So we think it will align with a much better output as we start to think about back half of the year cash flows and set up for 2024.

Operator

Operator

We are nearing the end of the conference, and we will go to Doug Leggare with Bank of America for our final question.

Doug Leggate

Analyst

Thank you, everybody. Note to self, don't hit star 1 more than once. So thanks for nice for getting me importantly move you to the back of the queue. But anyway, Dennis, this is your first call as CEO. And I wanted to ask you about one of the slides in your deck your share performance and the market's obvious lack of confidence in the forward curve that you've spent a lot of time in about. And I want to refer specifically to Slide 6. So you're basically saying you've got a 30-year to 50-year drilling inventory to hold production flat between $2 and $3 Obviously, your stock is materially undervalued if you believe the strip. So my question is, why not monetize some of that and bring forward some of that take advantage of the weakness in your stock price. And I'm just asking the question, as you now in the CEO, what can you do to drive market recognition of this value that you clearly see in your stock?

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes. Thanks for the question, Doug. I think when I started to think about that value proposition that you're raising as we start to look forward, we see inventory exhaustion playing a real role in the conversation as you start to get through '25, '26 and beyond. You're seeing it in research pieces today from analysts who are looking at and even internal work that we've done as well where you start to see degradation in well performance of some of these other basins. We see that as being constructive long term for range in the run rate of inventory that we have is we have the ability to continue to repeat performance. When you look at Slide 6 and how the inventory that we have has been, it's got a really low-cost breakeven. And we're not just targeting the lower end of that sector today, we're drilling in and around all of those respective bids that you see on that graphical profile. So we think that bodes well for us. We also want to maintain control in our development program going forward. Moving back to these pad sites with existing production plays a significant part of our story, our efficiencies, our low-cost environment and our capital efficiency. And so maintaining control in that environment would be very important for us as well. So as we start to think about what this future looks like, we think that there will be a greater appreciation for range of share value. We'll have that ability to return that value to shareholders, either through expansion of the dividend in the future, additional share repurchases or either further debt reduction based upon the ability to throw off free cash flow through these cycles in the future, while maybe some of the other either peers or other basins have a difficult time doing so.

Doug Leggate

Analyst

Okay. So you're not -- you're happy with the portfolio as it stands today is the bottom line.

Mark Scucchi

Management

Absolutely.

Doug Leggate

Analyst

Okay. All right. My follow-up is maybe for Mark. Mark, I apologize, it's a hedging question. I know someone asked this earlier. But just looking at 2025 and your comments about the curve which I think is becoming consensus. Should we anticipate any additional hedges? Or are you happy with where the hedge book sits now? Is this a new normal in terms of proportion volumes?

Mark Scucchi

Management

Doug. So we are happy with where the position is and I'm not going to lock us into a specific number and codify that, that 20% to 25%, assuming a maintenance program is the specific right answer because the market moves. So I think between now and then, what we will do is monitor the progress for the construction and expected service dates of LNG liquefaction facilities and other demand be it in basin demand, of which there are some pretty substantial incremental pieces coming online, be it in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, just Midwest type in-basin demand. Be it power or more industrial. Extra transport where we can move gas out of the basin. Maintenance is clearly our baseline, but growth will be appropriate and we'll be able to accelerate the value of our DP inventory at the right moment. So all of that and the timing of that will play back into what our hedge profile looks like. So the 25 book is a nice foundation. It's enough for the way we see the cards being laid out the way we expect them to be laid out over the next year or so. But it does present optionality if we see significant prices that changes, changes that we like, and you can derisk a small portion of that, that may support expanded shareholder returns. That may support accelerated deleveraging. Those are great outcomes. But at the end of the day, we don't have to add any more and we like where this book is as of today.

Doug Leggate

Analyst

I'm sure we'll have the growth discussion some of the time. But thanks so much, guys. I appreciate you taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Degner for his closing remarks.

Dennis Degner

Management

Yes. Thank you for everyone for joining us on the call this morning and talking to our Q2 results. We look for the next call coming up for Q3. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to follow up with our Investor Relations team. Thank you..

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect.